TPSI by Competitive Analytics

US National Economic

TPSI 1000 Point Strength Index
powered by Competitive Analytics and DECIPHER SOFTWARE
© 2010 Competitive Analytics. © 2010 DECIPHER. All rights reserved.

“The only thing we learn from history
is that we learn nothing from history.”
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (1770 – 1831)


TPSI Chart 1
Long Term 90 Year Trend
January 1921 to January 2011


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'+Y"Z!"#$%&'&(%*+,-.&'/0E/"# !"#$%&'&'(%)*+,-.&'/0
WWWE!"#$%&'&'(%*+,-.&'/0E/"#
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I22E2 I22E2
HA2E2 HA2E2
LE4E)M%/%00'"+0 LE4E)N:$,+0'"+0
HGIEB

[,&'"+,-)<348
HI2E2 HI2E2
HH2E2 HH2E2
HD2E2 O"5%/,0&%9)<348 P'0&"5'/,-)<348 HD2E2
HC2E2 HC2E2
HG2E2 NQ@'-'R5'@# S,0%-'+%)M%/%00'"+)T%(%- HG2E2
HF2E2 HF2E2
HB2E2 S,0%-'+%)3%,U)T%(%- *R0"-@&%)M%/%00'"+)T%(%- HB2E2
DIAEC

DHGE2

DHFEI
H12E2 H12E2
H22E2 S,0%-'+%)3%,U)T%(%-)V)CH2E1 !@55%+&)T%(%- H22E2

DCGED
DA2E2 DA2E2
DI2E2 DI2E2
DH2E2 DH2E2

DF1EC
DD2E2 DD2E2
DC2E2 DC2E2

D12ED

D2HEI
D2HEB

D2CEF
DG2E2 DG2E2

CAIEB

CAIEB
DF2E2 DF2E2

CABEI
CA1E1
CA2EC
CIAEH
DB2E2 DB2E2
CIFEB

D12E2 D12E2

CDCEI
D22E2 D22E2

CDBEF

CD2EA
CCDED
CA2E2 CA2E2

CGDEA
CI2E2 CI2E2

CGFE1
CH2E2 37,0% A CH2E2
CD2E2 CD2E2
CC2E2 CC2E2
CG2E2 CG2E2
CF2E2 CF2E2
CB2E2
37,0% I CB2E2
C12E2 C12E2
C22E2 C22E2 C22E2
GA2E2 GA2E2

GAGE2
GI2E2 GI2E2
GIDEA
GIGED

GH2E2
GD2E2
37,0% H GH2E2
GD2E2

GDDEI
GC2E2 GC2E2
GG2E2 GG2E2
GF2E2 GF2E2

GG1E2
GFAED
GB2E2 GB2E2
G12E2 G12E2

G1IEI
G1HEI

G22E2 G22E2
G2CE2

G2FEA
FA2E2 FA2E2

G2BEA
FI2E2 37,0% D FI2E2

FIAEH
FH2E2 FIAE1 !@55%+&)T%(%-)X)GBFED FH2E2

FIBEB
FD2E2 FD2E2
FC2E2 FC2E2

FDBEG
FCIE2

FG2E2 FG2E2
FF2E2 FF2E2
FB2E2 FB2E2
F12E2 F12E2
F22E2 F22E2
BA2E2 BA2E2
BI2E2 37,0% C BI2E2
BH2E2 S,0%-'+%)M%/%00'"+)T%(%-)V)FA1EH BH2E2
M%/%+&)<5"@67
BHDEG

BD2E2 BD2E2
BC2E2 BCDED ?,+)1AFBJ)BGCEF BC2E2
BG2E2 *R0"-@&%)M%/%00'"+)T%(%-)V)FCGEG BG2E2
BF2E2 K,5)B22AJ)BC2ED BF2E2
BB2E2 BB2E2
B12E2 P'0&"5'/)T"W B12E2
B22E2 B22E2
?,+>1AB1
?,+>1ABB
?,+>1ABF
?,+>1ABG
?,+>1ABC
?,+>1ABD
?,+>1ABH
?,+>1ABI
?,+>1ABA
?,+>1AF2
?,+>1AF1
?,+>1AFB
?,+>1AFF
?,+>1AFG
?,+>1AFC
?,+>1AFD
?,+>1AFH
?,+>1AFI
?,+>1AFA
?,+>1AG2
?,+>1AG1
?,+>1AGB
?,+>1AGF
?,+>1AGG
?,+>1AGC
?,+>1AGD
?,+>1AGH
?,+>1AGI
?,+>1AGA
?,+>1AC2
?,+>1AC1
?,+>1ACB
?,+>1ACF
?,+>1ACG
?,+>1ACC
?,+>1ACD
?,+>1ACH
?,+>1ACI
?,+>1ACA
?,+>1AD2
?,+>1AD1
?,+>1ADB
?,+>1ADF
?,+>1ADG
?,+>1ADC
?,+>1ADD
?,+>1ADH
?,+>1ADI
?,+>1ADA
?,+>1AH2
?,+>1AH1
?,+>1AHB
?,+>1AHF
?,+>1AHG
?,+>1AHC
?,+>1AHD
?,+>1AHH
?,+>1AHI
?,+>1AHA
?,+>1AI2
?,+>1AI1
?,+>1AIB
?,+>1AIF
?,+>1AIG
?,+>1AIC
?,+>1AID
?,+>1AIH
?,+>1AII
?,+>1AIA
?,+>1AA2
?,+>1AA1
?,+>1AAB
?,+>1AAF
?,+>1AAG
?,+>1AAC
?,+>1AAD
?,+>1AAH
?,+>1AAI
?,+>1AAA
?,+>B222
?,+>B221
?,+>B22B
?,+>B22F
?,+>B22G
?,+>B22C
?,+>B22D
?,+>B22H
?,+>B22I
?,+>B22A
?,+>B212
?,+>B211

Observations for TPSI Chart 1


1. Like any trend that can be observed and measured in the world, the US economy
travels through “enantiodromia-centric cycles” that are perpetually characterized by
sharp “V” shapes (i.e. robust growth and expansion) followed by “inverted V” shapes
(i.e. deceleration and contraction).



2. Seldom do we ever “self-correct” and gain the discipline and wisdom to grow at
sustainable levels. Without exception, thousands of years of market evidence proves
we instinctually shoot well above equilibrium levels (then below) by signiﬁcant margins.




3. A TPSI of 500.0 represents this normalized equilibrium level - in other words, the
eventual “gravitational pull” back to sustainable growth levels.




3. A TPSI of 500.0 represents this normalized equilibrium level - in other words, the
eventual “gravitational pull” back to sustainable growth levels.

4. Thus, TPSI analyses focuses on the “reversion to the mean” - which is not just a
mathematical paradigm or economic theory, but also an “archetypal constant” built on
thousands of years of philosophy, psychology, socio-economics, and physics.


TPSI Chart 2
Intermediate 9 Year Term Trend
January 2002 to January 2011


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[[[D!"#$%&'&'(%*+,-.&'/0D/"#
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H22D2 H22D2
IF2D2 IF2D2
MD4D)N%/%00'"+0 MD4D)O:$,+0'"+0

L,&'"+,-)<348
IH2D2 IH2D2
II2D2 II2D2
IE2D2 P"5%/,0&%9)<348 Q'0&"5'/,-)<348 IE2D2
IG2D2 IG2D2
IB2D2 OR@'-'S5'@# T,0%-'+%)N%/%00'"+)U%(%- IB2D2
IC2D2 IC2D2
IA2D2 T,0%-'+%)3%,V)U%(%- *S0"-@&%)N%/%00'"+)U%(%- IA2D2
I12D2 I12D2
I22D2 T,0%-'+%)3%,V)U%(%-)W)GI2D1 !@55%+&)U%(%- I22D2
EF2D2 EF2D2
EH2D2 EH2D2
EI2D2 EI2D2
EE2D2 EE2D2
EG2D2 EG2D2
EB2D2 EB2D2

GFADH
EC2D2 EC2D2
EA2D2 EA2D2

GIEDF
GIEDB
E12D2 E12D2

GGFDI
E22D2 E22D2
GF2D2 GGBDB GF2D2
GH2D2 GH2D2
37,0% F

GC2DB
GI2D2 GI2D2
GE2D2 GE2D2
GG2D2 GG2D2

GGCDF
GGADA
GB2D2 GB2D2
GBIDC

GC2D2 GC2D2
37,0% H

GCGDI
GA2D2 GA2D2
G12D2 G12D2
G22D2

G1BDF

BE1DH
G22D2 G22D2
BF2D2 BF2D2
BH2D2 BH2D2
BF1D2

BCADE
BI2D2
I BI2D2

BH2DG
37,0%
BE2D2 BE2D2
BG2D2 BG2D2
BB2D2 BB2D2
BC2D2 BC2D2
BA2D2
!@55%+&)U%(%-)X)BACDE BA2D2
B12D2 B12D2
B22D2 B22D2
CF2D2 CF2D2
CH2D2 37,0% E CH2D2
CI2D2 CI2D2
CE2D2 CE2D2

CEGDI
CG2D2 CG2D2
CB2D2 CB2D2
CC2D2 CC2D2
CA2D2 CA2D2
C12D2 C12D2
C22D2 C22D2
AF2D2 AF2D2
AH2D2 37,0% G AH2D2
AI2D2 T,0%-'+%)N%/%00'"+)U%(%-)W)CF1DI AI2D2
AE2D2 AE2D2
AG2D2 N%/%+&)<5"@67 AG2D2
AB2D2 *S0"-@&%)N%/%00'"+)U%(%-)W)CGBDB AB2D2
AC2D2
AA2D2
J,5)A22FK)AG2DE AC2D2
AA2D2
A12D2 A12D2
A22D2 A22D2
?,+>A22A

?@->A22A

?,+>A22C

?@->A22C

?,+>A22B

?@->A22B

?,+>A22G

?@->A22G

?,+>A22E

?@->A22E

?,+>A22I

?@->A22I

?,+>A22H

?@->A22H

?,+>A22F

?@->A22F

?,+>A212

?@->A212

?,+>A211
4%$>A22A

4%$>A22C

4%$>A22B

4%$>A22G

4%$>A22E

4%$>A22I

4%$>A22H

4%$>A22F

4%$>A212
J,5>A22A
J,.>A22A

J,5>A22C
J,.>A22C

J,5>A22B
J,.>A22B

J,5>A22G
J,.>A22G

J,5>A22E
J,.>A22E

J,5>A22I
J,.>A22I

J,5>A22H
J,.>A22H

J,5>A22F
J,.>A22F

J,5>A212
J,.>A212
L"(>A22A

L"(>A22C

L"(>A22B

L"(>A22G

L"(>A22E

L"(>A22I

L"(>A22H

L"(>A22F

L"(>A212

1. During January 2011, US economic strength decreased slightly by 0.8 TPSI points to
423.6 (from December’s US TPSI level of 424.4).



2. For the prior 12 months, the US Economy has been experiencing what we call a
“schizophrenic subcycle” or perhaps just simply a “stalling cycle.” Based on
hundreds of macro and micro economic drivers, the US economy has not realized
clear signs of a recovery (bad news) nor realized any clear statistical indication of a
double-dip recession (good news).



2. For the prior 12 months, the US Economy has been experiencing what we call a
“schizophrenic subcycle” or perhaps just simply a “stalling cycle.” Based on
hundreds of macro and micro economic drivers, the US economy has not realized
clear signs of a recovery (bad news) nor realized any clear statistical indication of a
double-dip recession (good news).

3. The prior two charts of our National Economic TPSI is an excellent leading indicator
for numerous industries and organizations. Customized TPSI models designed for
speciﬁc organizations will have a high correlation with industry and organizational
performance. Consequently, upward and downward trends in TPSIs should be
perpetually tracked as part of forward-looking strategic and tactical plans.


By The Chart: US Economic Conditions Since Jan. 2009
30 Equilibrium 500
Month Over Month TPSI Growth

Stalling Subcycle
from March 2010
15 425

TPSI
0 350

f rom gh
-15 r y rou 275
ove 9 T
Rec 200
rch
Ma

-30 200
01.09 04.09 07.09 10.09 01.10 04.10 07.10 10.10 01.11 04.11

By The Numbers: US Economic Conditions Since Jan. 2009
Month TPSI G Month TPSI G Month TPSI G
January 2009 257.2 -16.0 January 2010 375.0 13.9 January 2011 423.6 -0.8
February 2009 251.5 -5.7 February 2010 402.9 27.9 February 2011 420.5 -3.1 est.
March 2009 250.6 -0.9 March 2010 432.5 29.6 March 2011 425.5 5.0 est.
April 2009 257.5 6.9 April 2010 432.6 0.1 April 2011 430.2 4.7 est.
May 2009 270.0 12.5 May 2010 417.8 -14.8
June 2009 266.5 -3.5 June 2010 417.1 -0.7
July 2009 282.4 15.9 July 2010 403.6 -13.5
August 2009 297.4 15.0 August 2010 411.7 8.1
September 2009 314.9 17.5 September 2010 417.6 5.9
October 2009 328.3 13.4 October 2010 412.3 -5.3
November 2009 344.0 15.7 November 2010 417.5 5.2
December 2009 361.1 17.1 December 2010 424.4 6.9


About Competitive Analytics’ TPSI
1. The TPSI (1000 Point Strength Index) is the most comprehensive and precise market
measurement tool of its kind. The US Economic TPSI, only one of numerous TPSIs
developed, is based on hundreds of indicators and calculations via Competitive
Analytics' proprietary econometric model.

2. The TPSI ranges from zero to 1000 where 500 is benchmarked as the mathematical
stabilized equilibrium. Historical figures and forecasts above or below 500
reflect relative strength or weakness, respectively. The TPSI has the ability to track
and forecast a near-infinite number of market indicators and capable of in-depth
analysis, forecasting, valuation, and dynamic what-if analysis of macro economies,
industries, organizations, product types, services, and competitive geographic
market areas.


30 Applications of Competitive Analytics’ TPSI

1. Business Cycle Forecasting 11. Competitive Rankings 21. Trough to Peak Analysis

2. Sales Analysis and Forecasting 12. Indicator Overlays 22. Asset Evaluation

3. Valuation & Valuation Forecasting 13. Employee Evaluations 23. Operations Efﬁciency

4. Pricing Studies 14. Business Planning 24. SWOT Analysis

5. Price Optimization 15. 3rd-Party Analytical Auditing 25. Revenue Projections

6. Marketing Strategy 16. Litigation Support 26. Consumer Affordability

7. Consumer Sentiment 17. Scenario Analysis & Stress Testing 27. Analogue Supply Analysis

8. Feasibility Studies 18. Competitive Intelligence 28. Demographic Forecasts

9. Product Rankings 19. Portfolio Valuation 29. Industry Competitiveness

10. Geo-Submarket 20. Peak to Trough Analysis 30. Cost/Beneﬁt ROI Analysis.


TWO RULES OF ECONOMIC PHYSICS

“What goes up must come down”
- Isaac Newton

“What goes up at 2X must come down at 2Y.”
- David Savlowitz


Contact Information
Competitive Analytics David Savlowitz Michael Ponton
3195 Red Hill Avenue, Suite C CEO / Founder Lead Analyst
Costa Mesa, California 92626 714 352 7777 Direct 714 660 2786 Direct
714 660 2799 Ofﬁce 949 697 9977 Mobile 714 420 0059 Mobile
888 454 6206 Fax Sixstringeconomist Skype MichaelPonton Skype
info@CompetitiveAnalytics.com dss@CompetitiveAnalytics.com mp@CompetitiveAnalytics.com


DECIPHER
by Competitive Analytics Radar
Charts

Competitive Analytics
TPSI Indicator Bucket Strength
1989 = 500.4
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000
Stock Market 900 Business/Fiscal

800
700
Savings & Investment 600 Employment
500
400
300
200
Price Indexes 100 Exchange Rates

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing

Macro Indexes Interest Rates

1990 = 443.8
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


1991 = 413.9
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


1992 = 473.4
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


1993 = 509.6
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


1994 = 534.5
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


1995 = 504.2
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


1996 = 506.3
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


Annual Average

1998 = 573.1
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


1999 = 579.3
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


2000 = 557.7
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


2001 = 470.3
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


2002 = 504.1
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


2003 = 527.4
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


2004 = 575.7
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


2005 = 559.5
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


2006 = 532.5
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


2007 = 469.0
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


2008 = 335.0
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


2009 = 287.8
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


Mar 2009 = 248.1

Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


2010 = 413.7
Annual Average
Banking Equilibrium
1,000

800
700
500
400
300
200

0

Personal Income &
GDP & Components
Outlays

Oil Housing


TPSI by Competitive Analytics

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Editor's Notes