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Towards a just and regenerative aquaculture system
1. Martin Koehring
Global Director of Impact
Forum for the Future
Towards a just and
regenerative
aquaculture system
1
Sustainable Foods London, 7 November 2023
2. ● A Brief Introduction to Aquaculture
● The Three Horizons Model
● Horizon 1: Current System Dynamics
● Horizon 2: Transitions/Waves of Change
● Horizon 3: A Just & Regenerative Future
2
Agenda
Forum for the Future
3. 3
Definition
Forum for the Future
Fish farms
Finfish
Crustaceans
Bivalves
Seaweed
Fed mariculture
Unfed mariculture
5. ● 6+ times more food than today (High Level
Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy)
● Rising interest in health benefits
● Growing concern about environmental benefits
and costs (Blue Foods Assessment)
5
Seafood potential by 2050
Forum for the Future
6. 6
Calorie & Protein Retention
Forum for the Future
SOURCE: Environmental Research Letters
7. 7
SOURCE: Environmental Research Letters
Climate impact
● Seafood
generally
outperforms
livestock
● Particularly
strong: farmed
seaweeds and
bivalves (Blue
Foods
Assessment)
10. 10
Horizon 1: Current system dynamics
Forum for the Future
Replication
of
agricultural
system
Lack of stakeholder
incentives & awareness
to change the current
system
Unsustainable
fish feed
Short-sighted
stakeholders
Unjust &
unsustainable
practices affecting
people's, animal and
environmental health
Technology
mainly serves
the purpose of
scale, efficiency
and profitability
11. 11
Horizon 2: Transitions (waves of change)
Forum for the Future
New business
models and
governance
models
Increasing impact
investment &
institutional
investor interest
Rising consumer
concerns about
health, life span
& climate action
Emerging
regulation to
tackle
unsustainable
practices
Growth of unfed
mariculture
(seaweed,
bivalves)
Technology supports
compliance,
certification, circular
economy, local
communities
12. ● Founded in 2013 as “smart feeder” for
smallholder fish and shrimp farmers
● Large coop: 70,000+ farmers in 280 cities
● Vertical and lateral growth: linking farmers to
feed suppliers & other inputs (online marketplace)
● Value-chain approach: feed supply, production
and sale
● Government support, eg blue economy roadmap
12
Case study: eFishery in Indonesia
Forum for the Future
13. 13
Horizon 3: A just & regenerative future
Forum for the Future
New paradigm
for scaling to
maximise impact
rather than profit
Stewardship
governance
models
High
investor
confidence
Long-term
thinking
embedded in
mindset of
stakeholders
Just &
regenerative
practices
Technology
in service
of planetary
health
Unfed
mariculture
& circular
fish feed
One Health
approach is
widely
embraced
14. ● Aquaculture: opportunities & risks
● System diagnosis tool: Three Horizons
● Horizon 1: unsustainable patterns mirroring
aquaculture
● Horizon 2: waves of change through impact
investors & new business models
● Horizon 3: just & regenerative system based on
new paradigm for governance, fish feed and One
Health approach
14
Conclusion
Forum for the Future
Aquaculture is breeding, raising, and harvesting fish, shellfish, and aquatic plants.
Finfish: salmon, sea bass, sole
Fed vs unfed
Land vs sea as well
In the total fisheries and aquaculture production of aquatic animals and algae, aquaculture had already overtaken capture fisheries as the primary source of aquatic production in 2013, and its share in total production reached 57 percent in 2020
Aquatic foods contribute about 17 percent of the animal proteins consumed in 2019, reaching 23 percent in lower-middle-income countries and more than 50 percent in parts of Asia and Africa.
Under optimistic projections regarding alternative mariculture feed innovations and uptake, the ocean could supply over six times more food than it does today (364 million metric tons of animal protein). This represents more than two-thirds of the edible meat that the FAO estimates will be needed to feed the future global population
Not just protein: vitamins, minerals and fatty acids; tackling micronutrient deficiencies
Weight-based feed conversion ratios – the amount of feed administered over the lifetime of an animal divided by weight gained
the ratio of protein (or calories) in the edible portion of the animal divided by the amount of protein (or calories) in the feed.
carbon impact of foods
Banana Index: compares popular foodstuffs on three metrics—weight, calories and protein—indexed to the banana
Seafood outperforms animal meat as a source of protein (more carbon-friendly) - salmon and prawn for example
the ratio of protein (or calories) in the edible portion of the animal divided by the amount of protein (or calories) in the feed.
School of System Change: ongoing inquiry on the aquaculture system
Replication of agricultural system: Focus on extraction, productivity, profit and efficiency; Investors value scale, standardisation and replication; Unsustainable inputs (fertilisers, antibiotics); Highly concentrated industry (The top 10 seafood-producing countries account for 89% of aquaculture production and 75% of listed companies.); Monoculture, less diversity of species; Reliant on land-based production for feed (e.g. soy)
Lack of incentives for a just and regenerative system: Aquaculture investors find it challenging to find enough businesses at scale to invest in; Producers mainly concerned about revenues and profits; Lack of consumer awareness about the impact of the industry; Fishing communities often frustrated by economic barriers to transition to aquaculture
Unsustainable fish feed: Ocean-based: Fish meal and fish oil; Land-based: soy, corn etc
Short-sighted stakeholders: No concern for long-term consequences (Rampant fish disease and parasite; Pollution (e.g. industry waste, uneaten feed); Environmental impacts of soy fish feed overlooked; Take, make, waste approach (linear mindset)
Unjust & unsustainable practices affecting people's, fish and environmental health: 1) People dimension (Often not produced by or for local communities, Misaligned with interests and long-term welfare of local community and environment, Benefits of local food production not reinvested in local communities, Loss of traditional livelihoods); 2) Animal dimension (Neglect for animal welfare); 3) Environmental dimension (Invasive species (e.g. Iceland's wild salmon impacted by Norwegian fish farms);
Technology mainly serves the purpose of scale, efficiency and profitability: Technology-driven industry (fish feed, data analytics, IoT, AI), Transparency and certification are low priorities, Investment goes to most viable technologies
New business models and governance models emerging: eFishery in Indonesia; Rise in cooperative business models; GSI - Platform to drive sustainability in farmed salmon system. Brings industry and supply chain together;
Increasing impact investment in the aquaculture space: Aqua-Spark (over 300 investors from more than 25 countries, Aqua-Spark is a global community of investors), Ocean14 Capital; Institutional investors increasingly investing in the blue economy (including sustainable aquaculture)
Consumers' rising concerns about health and life span & climate action: Consumer demand for healthier food, Increasing awareness and interest in the methods and practices involved in food production, Growing interest in the benefits of seaweed
Emerging regulation to tackle unsustainable practices: Fish feed quotas (e.g. Denmark), Retailers setting clearer environmental and social standards; Rising transparency linked to ESG, certification, regulation and policy
Technology increasingly serves the purpose of compliance, certification, the circular economy and local communities: Rise in Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture; Innovations in Recirculating Aquaculture Systems, Rise in offshore aquaculture (enabling more sustainable scaling), Investment in genetics to boost diversity
New paradigm for scaling to maximise impact rather than profit: Scale in connectivity (e.g. cultivating fish feed close to fish farms); Scale in size when required (R&D, offshore, lab-grown); Scaling embraces complexity (vs standardisation)
Stewardship governance models: Connected network of stakeholders aligned on just and regenerative strategic goals; System with clear connection between producer and consumer transparency and mutual care
High investor confidence in aquaculture: Government support (subsidies/tax breaks) and regulatory framework that encourages impact investing that is just and regenerative
One Health approach is widely embraced: Stakeholders recognise that health of people is closely connected to health of animals and the environment; Consumers' rising concern for planetary health (including fish health, origin of fish etc.); Strong consumer preference for food from aquaculture
Unfed mariculture is a critical part of the aquaculture system & Circular fish feed (e.g. animal by-products, food waste); Fish feed mainly from crops from the sea (e.g. algae, seaweed, marine bacteria); fish meal and soy banned in fish feed
Long-term thinking embedded in mindset of stakeholders: Circular mindset, Sustainability is embedded into aquaculture business models, Thriving biodiverse ecosystem, biological performance
Just & regenerative practices: Diverse, just & inclusive ecosystem, Global and local governance working towards just & regenerative outcomes, Prioritisation of community-based food systems
Technology in service of planetary health: Monitoring & safeguarding health and safety of fish and the environment, Seaweed matures as a carbon sink opportunity