1. CONQUERING CHAOS
MNAMAAnnualConference⋅11.08.10
THIN K LIKE A FUTURIST
CECILY SOMMERS
Director, Futures Studies
Bluedog Design

2. God grant me the serenity to accept
the things I cannot change;
courage to change the things I can;
and the wisdom to know the difference
think like a futurist the serenity prayer

3. think like a futurist 09.28.10

4. think like a futurist 09.28.10

5. A crisis is a
terrible thing
think like a futurist crisis
(to waste) Rahm Emanuel (via Paul Romer)

6. KNOW DO
NEW
better
think like a futurist crisis
better better

7. CONQUERING CHAOSCONQUERING CHAOS
p erc ep t ion

8. Learning, Memory
Left Hemisphere
Language
Right Hemisphere
Imagery
Motivation & Emotion
think like a futurist
Senses
Motivation & Emotion
Autonomic System: Pain, Arousal
how we think

9. L: KNOW
PART I: Learn
Agenda
R: NEW
PART II: Play
L: DO
PART III: Move
think like a futurist the antidote

10. PART I: KNOW

12. demographics
law markets
governance
think like a futurist four forces
technology
resources
demographics

13. ◦ Earth
◦ Ocean
◦ Space
◦ Climate
◦ Energy
◦ Water
◦ Land
◦ Food
◦ Sun
◦ Animals
◦ Habitat
◦ Minerals
◦ Forest
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Resources
Four Forces

14. think like a futurist four forces_resources

15. think like a futurist four forces_resources

16. think like a futurist four forces_resources

17. law markets
TRENDS
INTEGRATION
think like a futurist four forces
resources
ISSUES

18. ◦ Genetics
◦ Robotics
◦ Information
◦ Nanotechnology
◦ Health care
◦ Education
◦ Collaboration
◦ Virtual reality
◦ Games
◦ Telephony
◦ Manufacturing
◦ Infrastructure
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Technology
Four Forces

21. think like a futurist four forces_technology

22. think like a futurist four forces_technology

24. law markets
energy
infrastructure
think like a futurist
technology
infrastructure
four forces_technology

25. ◦ 6.1 B in 2000
◦ 9B in 2050
◦ Developing ++
◦ Industrial ---
◦ Immigration
◦ Multi-cultural
◦ Multi-lingual
◦ Nationalism
◦ Conflict
◦ Capital formation
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Demographics
Four Forces

27. think like a futurist four forces_demographics

28. think like a futurist four forces_demographics

29. law markets
laborlabor
multi-ethnicmulti-ethnic
think like a futurist
demographics
multi-ethnicmulti-ethnic
four forces_demographics

30. ◦ Tribalism
◦ Market drivers
◦ Values
◦ Interests
◦ Beliefs
◦ Online
communities
◦ Personalization
Governance
Four Forces
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
◦ Personalization
◦ Polarization

32. 32

33. 33

36. PART II: NEW

37. ◦ Business need
◦ Futures research
◦ Brand experience
◦ New technologies
◦ Scenario
development
◦ Outside experts
◦ Experiential
exploration
◦ “Like That”
◦ “Fill the Box”
◦ Having it all
◦ “Duh!,” “Love it!”,
High Risk/Reward
ZONE OF DISCOVERY
High Risk/Reward
◦ Chunking it down
◦ First Movable Piece
◦ Deliverables,
resource requests,
Q-2-Q
© Cecily Sommers, 2010

38. • “Like That!”
Pour & Stir
• “Like That!”
• Play
• Time out
© Cecily Sommers, 2010

39. STRATEGIC FORESIGHT & INNOVATION
MEGATREND
CHALLENGE
Increased Energy
Consumption
Pressure to conserve
Growing Geriatric
Group
Increased demand for
care-giving services
FUTURE MARKET
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY
Energy-saving
technologies & services
Energy contracting for
private households
Supporting care-giving
relatives
Web 2.0 opportunities
to manage everyday life

40. STRATEGIC FORESIGHT & INNOVATION
Megatrend
Challenge
Innovation
What needs and pressures
result?
Future Market
Business Opportunity
Services & Products
to meet those needs?
Unique, purpose-ful offering

41. L: KNOW
Study structural and systemic factors
Define issue in those terms
Determine your Best Question
Forward March!
R: NEW
Explore
Invent
L: DO
Execute
5% Factor
think like a futurist the antidote

42. PART III: DO

43. Duh!
think like a futurist four forces
Love it!OMG!

44. Assumptions, Outcomes, Resources
•10 Years
• 5 years
Plan in Reverse
• 5 years
• 2 years
• 1 year
• 6 months
• 3 months…
think like a futurist the antidote

45. Duh! Love it! High Risk/Reward
think like a futurist four forces

46. “The to plant
a tree was ago.”
best time
20 yearsa tree was ago.”20 years
Chinese Proverb

47. think like a futurist four forces

48. thankyou!
@cecilysommers
cecily@bluedogdesign.com
think like a futurist www.bluedogdesign.com