6. DATA
• Data from Central Statistics Office ( CSO)
• Provides data on deaths in Ireland (1981-
2013) by Age, Gender and Year (segregated
monthly)
• Data contains population estimates by
Gender, Age group (1-85 years and over) and
Year
7. Excess Winter Mortality (EWM)
Mortality rate in winter relative to the rest of
the year
Assumptions
• The standard winter period is taken to be from
November to February.
• Population data(in thousands) is assumed to
be uniform over the year.
8. • Winter Mortality
Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) = Deaths in
winter/ (4/12)* Population at risk * 1000
• Non- Winter mortality
Crude Mortality Rate(CMR) = Deaths in non-
winter/ (8/12)* Population at risk*1000
Method
9. Males, Age group 60-64 years
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
CrudeMortalityRate
YEAR
WINTER
NON-WINTER
ANNUAL
2 per. Mov.
Avg. (WINTER
)
2 per. Mov.
Avg. (NON-
WINTER)
2 per. Mov.
Avg.
(ANNUAL)
Figure 1 :Crude Mortality Rate plot for Males, Age group 60-64 years (Excess Winter Deaths)
10. Females, Age group 60-64 years
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
CrudeMortalityRate
YEAR
winter
non-winter
annual
2 per. Mov.
Avg. (winter )
2 per. Mov.
Avg. (non-
winter)
Figure 2 :Crude Mortality Rate plot for Males, Age group 60-64 years (Excess Winter Deaths)
11. Males, Age group 80-84 years
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
CrudeMortalityRate
Year
WINTER
NON-WINTER
ANNUAL
2 per. Mov. Avg.
(WINTER)
2 per. Mov. Avg.
(NON-WINTER)
2 per. Mov. Avg.
(ANNUAL)
Figure 3 :Crude Mortality Rate plot for Males, Age group 80-84 years (Excess Winter Deaths)
12. Females, Age group 80-84 years
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14 1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
CrudeMortalityRate
Year
winter
non-winter
annual
2 per. Mov.
Avg. (winter )
2 per. Mov.
Avg. (non-
winter)
Figure 4 :Crude Mortality Rate plot for Females, Age group 80-84 years (Excess Winter Deaths)
13. Seasonal Mortality
Assumptions
The Population data(in thousands) is assumed
to be uniform over the year.
Method
For a particular age group
Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) = Deaths during
that month/(1/12* Population at risk )
14. Males, Age group 80-84years
(monthly mortality)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
CrudeMortalityRate
Month
1981
1991
2001
2010
2013
Figure 5 :Crude Mortality Rate plot for Males, Age group 80-84 years (Excess Winter Deaths)
15. Females, Age group 80-84years
(monthly mortality)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
CrudeMortalityRate
Month
1981
1991
2001
2010
2013
Figure 6 :Crude Mortality Rate plot for Females, Age group 80-84 years (Seasonal Mortality)
16. Further Work
• Seasonal patterns and underlying causes of
deaths by seasons
• Looking at other possible factors, such as
Cardio Vascular diseases and Influenza
17. CONCLUSION
• Seasonal Mortality has virtually disappeared
for the younger age groups (less than 65)
• It is reducing over time for the older age
groups, but should still be taken into account.
18. References
• Smith, L. (2015). Excess Winter Mortality in England and Wales, 2013/14 (Provisional) and
2012/13 (Final). [online] Office for National Statistics. Available
at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_387113.pdf [Accessed 28 Aug. 2015].
• http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/saveselections.asp [Accessed 28 Aug.
2015].
• Langford, I. and Bentham, G. (1995). The potential effects of climate change on winter
mortality in England and Wales. International Journal of Biometeorology, [online] 38(3),
pp.141-147. Available at: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01208491 [Accessed 28
Aug. 2015].
• http://www.demogr.mpg.de/books/drm/003/1.pdf [Accessed 28 Aug. 2015].
• Available at: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/statistics/winter-mortality/iwm-background-
2013-14.pdf [Accessed 28 Aug. 2015].
• http://www.micronutrient.org/nutritiontoolkit/ModuleFolders/13.Manuals_and_resources/
WFP_Measuring_and_Interpreting_Malnutrition_and_Mortality/4)_Chapter_2_-
_Defining_&_measuring_mortality_(pgs%2033-52).pdf [Accessed 28 Aug. 2015].
• Paul Wilkinson, A. (2004). Vulnerability to winter mortality in elderly people in Britain:
population based study. BMJ : British Medical Journal, [online] 329(7467), p.647. Available
at: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC517639/ [Accessed 28 Aug. 2015]
