1) The document summarizes research estimating total worldwide intelligence spending and employment across 195 nation-states using public data sources and estimation techniques. 2) It estimates total annual worldwide intelligence spending to be around $106.96 billion, with the US accounting for 65% of spending. 3) It also estimates total worldwide intelligence employment to be around 1.13 million people, with Russia and the US having the highest per capita spending on intelligence personnel.

1. 11 November 2009 Chris Hippner

2. Quantitative metrics Spending Employment Hypothesis: $100 billion United States Dollars 500,000 persons

3. NOT YET POSSIBLE Method does not exist for international comparisons Assumes: Function, roles, & missions are different WRONG FEATURES Common features: Collection/analysis Covert action Counterintelligence National wealth v. security concerns?

4. Cold War Paradigm Civil-Military Relations Non-Western Inconsistent/qualitative variables

5. Annual reports/disclosers Domestic requirements Pro: Quantitative Con: Irregular reporting All intel. Components?

6. Brassey’s Intelligence Yearbook Case study format Different attributes Intelligence Resource Program Collected data

7. Design Descriptive research Intelligence spending Intelligence personnel Gross Domestic Product Population 195 nation-states Standardizing Spending units US Dollar 2008 = baseline year Personnel definitions Full time equivalents No contractors

8. DATA RETRIEVAL Internet Sources Traditional Sources Considerations Documents in foreign languages Webpage credibility ESTIMATION PROCESS Spending Create ratio Average ratios Apply Personnel Establish similarity Set ranges Create average Apply

9. Finding Total world intel. spending = $ 106,961,604,308.01 US spends most = 65% US proportion of world GDP = 23.5% US spending is disproportion

10. Finding 20 countries spend 93% of total Their GDP = 69% world GDP 175 countries spend remaining $7.8 billion Their GDP = 31% world GDP Top 10% average point-to-point variation Top 10% vs. Bottom 90%

11. Exponential Trend R 2 Value = 0.940 Power Trend R 2 Value = 0.835 Results (cont’d)

12. Affect of US on Estimating Population (US Included) Population (US Excluded) Average Spending $548,521,047.73 $164,750,537.67 Standard Deviation $5,389,872,754.45 $576,959,565.88 Ratios for Estimating 2/947 1/442 Percent Difference of Estimates 5.22%

13. Finding Total world intelligence employment = 1,130,104 Russia spends = $18,902.70 per person US spends = $520,833 per person Total: 1,130,104 World 814,104 72%

14. = Top Intelligence Employers

15. Top 20 employers = 61% of total Bottom 175 employer = 39% of total Interesting… Top intel. spenders ≠ top intel. employers Only 6 countries are both

16. = Top Intelligence Spender and Employer

17. Found 246 different intel. agencies Average intel. agency per country = 1.28 Financial intel. units generally excluded

18. CRITIQUE Search methods Alternative estimations methods Intel. spending & Employment Assumed linear Relationship FUTURE RESEARCH Continuous Regular reporting Intel. spending & employment relationship Employment components Analysts, Linguists, support staff

19. Contact: Chris Hippner