Formed police units (FPUs) are playing an increasingly important role in peacekeeping operations (PKOs) and stability operations. Over the next ten years, FPUs will likely make up 50-70% of UN police components and take on expanded security roles like protecting IDP camps and counseling on gender issues. The Center of Excellence for Stability Police Units (COESPU) will likely continue developing FPU doctrine and capabilities focused on African PKOs. Effective coordination will also become more crucial for mission success, informed by lessons from past operations. The African Standby Force may be the first inter-governmental organization to fully adopt the new FPU doctrine but is unlikely to engage in PKOs in the next decade.

1. Formed Police Units in Peacekeeping & Stability Operations

2. What is the evolution of the concept of stability policing and formed police units (FPU) in peacekeeping operations (PKO) and what direction is the concept likely to take over the next ten years ? How are the developing capabilities of FPUs, and evolving stability policing doctrine, likely to contribute to peacekeeping and stability operations over the next ten years ?

3. It is highly likely that future UN PKOs will consist of 50-70% of the overall UN police component.

4. 6 of 9 PKOs featuring FPUs are in Africa.

5. CURRENT ROLES Riot suppression Crowd control Security for UN facilities/personnel PROJECTED ROLES Security at IDP camps Guarding civilians Gender-based issues counseling

6. It is highly likely that COESPU will continue to focus on the development of FPUs for African PKOs.

7. It is highly likely that IGOs will not resist recommendations made by the Center of Excellence for Stability Police Units (COESPU). Lessons learned from March 2004 Kosovo riots Joint Operations Centers (JOC) implemented into future missions.

8. It is highly likely that effective coordination will become increasingly crucial to the success of future PKOs. UNMIK March 2004 Riots MINUSTAH/MONUC Successful coordination UNAMID Unsuccessful coordination

9. African Standby Force (ASF) Likely to be first IGO to fully incorporate new FPU doctrine. Unlikely to engage in PKOs within the next 10 years.

10. Comparative case study analysis 6 major UNPKOS 2 minor UNPKOS Doctrinal analysis COESPU Geospatial analysis Physical environment