Presentation by L. Beauguitte and Y. Richard made at the conference Royaume-Uni, Irlande, Etats-Unis : la relation économique transatlantique en question au XXI siècle, March 2013, Paris

1. Hypothesis Data Methods Results Discussion
The US and the UK (1970-2010): Ordinary
trading partners ?
Laurent Beauguitte* and Yann Richard**
CNRS *UMR IDEES **UMR Prodig
March 2013
Beauguitte & Richard CNRS *UMR IDEES **UMR Prodig
USA-UK trade

2. Hypothesis Data Methods Results Discussion
Outline of the presentation
1 Hypothesis
2 Data
3 Methods
4 Results
5 Discussion
Beauguitte & Richard CNRS *UMR IDEES **UMR Prodig
USA-UK trade

3. Hypothesis Data Methods Results Discussion
One postulate and two main hypothesis.
The UK-USA are becoming “ordinary” trading partners
Why ?
UK trade tends to europeanize itself;
New economic powers take a rising part in world exchanges.
Beauguitte & Richard CNRS *UMR IDEES **UMR Prodig
USA-UK trade

4. Hypothesis Data Methods Results Discussion
The CHELEM database: country or aggregations, global and by
product volume, 1967–2010.
The COW trade database 3.0: country * country, global volume,
1870–2009.
The Gleditsh trade database: country * country, global volume,
1948–2000.
Beauguitte & Richard CNRS *UMR IDEES **UMR Prodig
USA-UK trade

5. Hypothesis Data Methods Results Discussion
Three methods used:
global and sectorial trade share (import & export) 1970–2010
bilateral exchance intensity analysis
gravity model
Beauguitte & Richard CNRS *UMR IDEES **UMR Prodig
USA-UK trade

6. Hypothesis Data Methods Results Discussion
RTI: Relative trade intensities
RTI =
Vij × Vw
Vi × Vj
where Vij trade between country i and j
Vi and Vj total trade for country i and j
and Vw total world trade
Beauguitte & Richard CNRS *UMR IDEES **UMR Prodig
USA-UK trade

7. Hypothesis Data Methods Results Discussion
Gravity model (Poisson family)
Tradeij = log(GDPpci ) + log(GDPpcj ) + log(Popi ) + log(Popj )
If model fits, then check residuals for the USA-UK couple
Model tested for 1970, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95, and 2000 on two
different databases (COW, Gleditsh)
Beauguitte & Richard CNRS *UMR IDEES **UMR Prodig
USA-UK trade

8. Hypothesis Data Methods Results Discussion
UK-USA are trading a lot but. . .
Part of EU trade is much more important (global and sectorial
trade share)
Relative trade intensity is below 1
Residuals of gravity models are always negative
UK-USA are not becoming ordinary trading partners, they have
always been. . .
Beauguitte & Richard CNRS *UMR IDEES **UMR Prodig
USA-UK trade

9. EU is the main market for UK exports & BRIC now overtake USA.

10. EU remains the main market for USA exports & BRIC now
overtake UK.

11. If we check by product types
Regarding exportations, EU is the main trading partner, and BRIC
are slowly rising.
Same trends for high technology products

12. Regarding importations, US importance is fastly declining

13. RTI always below 0.5: trade between USA and UK is half what it
would be regarding their respective volumes
But RTI is rising from 1990 to 2009 (0.378 to 0.492). . .

14. Same indicator tested for some (arbitrary) couples

15. Hypothesis Data Methods Results Discussion
Really basic a-spatial gravity model but always highly significant:
population size and GDP per capita rise the volume of trade.
Percentage of explained deviance
COW dataset Gleditsh dataset
1970 75 73
1975 76 75
1980 76 76
1985 79 80
1990 79 82
1995 82 83
2000 82 82
Beauguitte & Richard CNRS *UMR IDEES **UMR Prodig
USA-UK trade

16. Hypothesis Data Methods Results Discussion
COW dataset Gleditsh dataset
USA-UK USA-IRL UK-IRL USA-UK USA-IRL UK-IRL
1970 -0.08 -0.45 12.09 -0.16 -0.35 14.44
1975 -0.23 -0.57 13.5 -0.31 -0.61 15.09
1980 -0.08 -0.39 17.44 -0.13 -0.43 19.12
1985 -0.11 -0.08 11.88 -0.14 -0.17 13.22
1990 -0.24 -0.29 10.17 -0.26 -0.34 11.18
1995 -0.92 -0.02 10.17 -0.37 -0.19 9.35
2000 -0.88 0.23 8.06 -0.38 0.1 7.42
USA-UK: trade less than they “should” according to their
population and GDPpc.
Beauguitte & Richard CNRS *UMR IDEES **UMR Prodig
USA-UK trade

17. Mapping global results (relative values)

18. Mapping global results (relative values)

19. Mapping global results (absolute values)

20. Hypothesis Data Methods Results Discussion
Thanks for your attention*
*If you have any question, speaking slowly will rise your probability
to get an intelligible answer. . .
Beauguitte & Richard CNRS *UMR IDEES **UMR Prodig
USA-UK trade