The document summarizes and investigates claims that the Bureau of Labor Statistics manipulated unemployment data for political reasons. It discusses how the BLS collects employment data through comprehensive surveys and calculates unemployment statistics through a transparent process. The document argues that conspiring to manipulate the data would require cooperation across many professional staff over years and that the surveys show consistent results over time. It concludes that the drop in the unemployment rate was consistent with the details of the jobs reports and slowing economic growth.
This document provides guidance on finding local economic stories using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). It outlines the types of local economic statistics available on the BEA website, such as GDP and income statistics for states, counties and metro areas. The document walks through examples of how journalists have used BEA data to identify interesting trends and statistics to build news stories. It also provides instructions for accessing BEA's interactive database to find specific data points.
Jeannine Aversa and Thomas Dail of the BEA present "Finding stories in Census Bureau data," part of a free, multi-session workshop sponsored by the Donald W. Reynolds National Center for Business Journalism in Louisville, Ky.
For more information on free training for journalists, please visit businessjournalism.org.
Lazard Investment Research: Update on the Improving Foundations of US House P...LazardLazard
Home prices have continued their upward climb, as evidenced by the latest report from S&P/Case-Shiller. However, the most recent data show a sequential deceleration in aggregate price increases. While there are several variables that influence the price trajectory of housing, the recent spike in borrowing rates—in anticipation of tapering by the US Federal Reserve—appears to be a primary driver. In this paper, we discuss the key variables, in addition to housing price indices, that contribute to create a more complete assessment of the fundamentals for a further price recovery.
"Financial Impacts and Policy Considerations of a Minimum Wage Increase"TheChamber
"Financial Impacts and Policy Considerations of a Minimum Wage Increase"
Presented by: Scott Manley, Vice President of Government Affairs, Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce (WMC)
Federal minimum wage, tax transfer earnings supplements and povertyWages Guahan
This document discusses the federal minimum wage, tax-transfer earnings supplements, and poverty in the United States. It provides background on current minimum wage policies and illustrates how minimum wage earnings and tax benefits impact the income of full-time workers from different family types relative to poverty guidelines. The document finds that while a single childless worker would have earnings above poverty from a minimum wage job, a worker with a family would fall below poverty lines. It also discusses considerations around raising the minimum wage versus expanding tax credits and other supplements and the differing impacts on various groups.
Read this white paper for a step by step calculation of turnover cost, the top 10 employee complaints that could lead to turnover, plus solutions for diminishing this costly phenomenon at your organization.
The document provides an overview of general interest topics, company news, mergers and acquisitions, and primary sources related to cybersecurity, the economy, and IT. Specifically, it discusses trends in cyber attacks and data breaches globally and in Canada, including a rise in ransomware and human errors contributing to security issues. It also summarizes economic indicators and forecasts for Canada, the US, and various cities, noting contractions in some areas impacted by falling oil prices but growth in others like Toronto. Hiring trends and workforce issues are also covered.
This document provides guidance on finding local economic stories using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). It outlines the types of local economic statistics available on the BEA website, such as GDP and income statistics for states, counties and metro areas. The document walks through examples of how journalists have used BEA data to identify interesting trends and statistics to build news stories. It also provides instructions for accessing BEA's interactive database to find specific data points.
Jeannine Aversa and Thomas Dail of the BEA present "Finding stories in Census Bureau data," part of a free, multi-session workshop sponsored by the Donald W. Reynolds National Center for Business Journalism in Louisville, Ky.
For more information on free training for journalists, please visit businessjournalism.org.
Lazard Investment Research: Update on the Improving Foundations of US House P...LazardLazard
Home prices have continued their upward climb, as evidenced by the latest report from S&P/Case-Shiller. However, the most recent data show a sequential deceleration in aggregate price increases. While there are several variables that influence the price trajectory of housing, the recent spike in borrowing rates—in anticipation of tapering by the US Federal Reserve—appears to be a primary driver. In this paper, we discuss the key variables, in addition to housing price indices, that contribute to create a more complete assessment of the fundamentals for a further price recovery.
"Financial Impacts and Policy Considerations of a Minimum Wage Increase"TheChamber
"Financial Impacts and Policy Considerations of a Minimum Wage Increase"
Presented by: Scott Manley, Vice President of Government Affairs, Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce (WMC)
Federal minimum wage, tax transfer earnings supplements and povertyWages Guahan
This document discusses the federal minimum wage, tax-transfer earnings supplements, and poverty in the United States. It provides background on current minimum wage policies and illustrates how minimum wage earnings and tax benefits impact the income of full-time workers from different family types relative to poverty guidelines. The document finds that while a single childless worker would have earnings above poverty from a minimum wage job, a worker with a family would fall below poverty lines. It also discusses considerations around raising the minimum wage versus expanding tax credits and other supplements and the differing impacts on various groups.
Read this white paper for a step by step calculation of turnover cost, the top 10 employee complaints that could lead to turnover, plus solutions for diminishing this costly phenomenon at your organization.
The document provides an overview of general interest topics, company news, mergers and acquisitions, and primary sources related to cybersecurity, the economy, and IT. Specifically, it discusses trends in cyber attacks and data breaches globally and in Canada, including a rise in ransomware and human errors contributing to security issues. It also summarizes economic indicators and forecasts for Canada, the US, and various cities, noting contractions in some areas impacted by falling oil prices but growth in others like Toronto. Hiring trends and workforce issues are also covered.
Methodological Premises of Social Forecasting in the Context of Business organizations- Presentation at Second National Conference on Management Science and Practice
Indian Institute of Technology, Madras - March 9-11, 2007
The document discusses a new OSHA initiative to increase protections for temporary workers. It was prompted by several temporary worker deaths in the past year. The initiative requires staffing firms and client companies to ensure temporary workers have a safe workplace and necessary safety training. Both entities may now be held liable for violations. Research shows temporary workers have higher injury risks due to lack of safety training and some employers view them as expendable. The initiative aims to address this issue and protect temporary worker safety.
This document summarizes a student paper that analyzes the impact of minimum wage increases on poverty rates using data from the United States Census and Department of Labor from 2007-2010. The paper reviews existing literature which finds mixed results on the employment and poverty effects of minimum wages. It then describes the student's research design using a panel data model to estimate the effect of minimum wage increases on county and state-level poverty rates over time while controlling for unemployment, GDP, education, and crime rates. The goal is to add to the debate on whether higher minimum wages decrease poverty in the real world.
Income and consumption changes did not move in tandem; there was only a slightly positive correlation between changes in income and changes in consumption between 2013 and 2014.
Successful Investing in a Low Growth Economy: A Historical PerspectiveBen Esget
The U.S. economy has grown about 3.5% annually from the 17th century until the late 20th century. Most of American industry and wealth can be attributed to significant technological advancements starting in the Industrial Revolution. Over recent decades, productivity has significantly dropped off with some estimates of the economy growing at 1.8% annually.
Returns from innovation appear to be entering a period of stagnation. Although the causes and implications of such events remain in question, it has become increasingly vital for investors to analyze performance across similar environments in history to successfully navigate uncertain markets.
The document provides an overview of the economy and work from a sociological perspective. It begins with an outline of the key topics to be covered, including different economic systems, contemporary world economies, perspectives on the US economy and work, unemployment, worker activism, and the future of the global economy. It then provides definitions of key economic concepts like the economy, labor, capital, and goods and services. The remainder of the document discusses functionalist perspectives on the economy, characteristics of postindustrial economies, facts about job growth and security, unemployment as an issue, and examples of struggling industries.
This article summarizes a cybersecurity expert's findings that hackers employed by the Chinese regime gained access to financial systems as early as 2006 and later sold access to criminal groups. One such group has been exploiting a breach of UniTeller, a financial transfer company, to access accounts in connected banks like Fifth Third Bank. The expert has evidence of the hackers stealing funds and testing credit limits. He has warned UniTeller and banks but they have denied any breach. UniTeller subsequently took its online services offline, likely to address the issue. The expert believes the criminal group is expanding its operations through the UniTeller network breach.
DCR TrendLine July 2014 - Non Employee Workforce Insightss
DCR TrendLine shares analyses of trends and happenings in the staffing industry. The July edition covers a range of topics, including the latest employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the growing utilization of temporary workers across multiple industries. This month’s edition focuses on the Information Technology (IT) industry, highlight trends in the sector and sharing insight into employment and wages. We examine the skill gap in the industry and discuss how companies are attempting to bridge it. We also highlight how predictive analytics are being applied in human resource management and which talent acquisition metrics companies should be tracking. Our feature article this month is particularly applicable to companies with contingent workforce programs. We look at the challenges companies often face, and offer tips on keeping CW programs running smoothly.
How important a consideration is ‘building trust’ in your brand’s marketing? And what role does content play in this?
Hosted by Jill Schlesinger, Business Analyst, CBS News, our panel of opinion leaders will help the global financial services marketing community triangulate their trust decisions, incorporating:
• Media Trust: Deidre H. Campbell, Global Chair, Financial Services Sector, Edelman on its new research findings.
• Marketing Trust: Jennifer Grazel, Global Director, Vertical Marketing, LinkedIn Marketing Solutions: Financial Services on the considerations for marketing trust.
• Financial Trust: Is there a trust gap between fintech challengers and incumbent brands? Clayton Ruebensaal, VP of Global Marketing for American Express, and Elyssa Gray, VP of Brand for Betterment discuss.
The document provides an economic and real estate development strategy report for the City of Huron, Ohio. It analyzes market conditions and trends, identifies available land sites and properties, determines the best "first opportunity" site for development, and outlines a marketing strategy. Specifically, it finds that Huron's labor force and population are declining while the population is aging. Household incomes are middle to upper middle class compared to state and national levels. The report identifies the Showboat and ConAgra properties as potential redevelopment sites and recommends focusing marketing efforts on attracting residents ages 25-34 to boost the workforce.
Back in 2013, President Barack Obama used his State of the Union address to call for raising the federal $7.25 minimum wage, which has been in place since 2010, to $9. In his address on January 28, he appealed to Congress and employers to raise the minimum wage to $10.10.
DCR Trendline October 2014 - Non Employee Workforce Insightss
DCR TrendLine shares analyses of trends and happenings in the staffing industry. The October edition covers a range of topics, including the latest employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the continued growth of temporary employment. October is one of the most exciting months for sports fans, and it’s only fitting that this edition’s industry highlight is centered on sports-related employment. Our other areas of focus include how the definition and image of employees has progressed over the past decade, the increasing use of social media for recruiting, and on the value of talent supply chain management in meeting organizational talent needs. Our feature article this month is particularly applicable to companies with contingent workforce programs. We look at how vendor management systems can help companies fulfill the priorities and requirements of multiple stakeholders while meeting the shared single goal of eliminating complexity to increase operational effectiveness. - See more at: http://blog.dcrworkforce.com/dcr-trendline-october-2014#sthash.jW1AtNaQ.dpuf
Recasting_The_Role_of_Big_Data w S. BennettBarry R. Hix
This document discusses the importance of context in understanding data. It argues that "data does not speak for itself" and that relying only on correlations in big data can lead to unreliable or meaningless results if the proper context is not understood. Specifically, it notes that humans design data collection systems and analyses, and their underlying assumptions, referred to as "mental models", influence the interpretation of the data. Ignoring these human influences and assumptions behind the data is a "false and dangerous notion" that could damage businesses. Understanding the context, including possible causal relationships, is crucial for reliably answering important questions using data.
Combined with downturns in the Industrial Production Index and construction spending, the Small Business Health Index's April 2013 decline highlights the continuing struggle small businesses face in a volatile economic environment. Nevertheless, key indicators like falling unemployment are promising for the sector.
The document summarizes that the US economy is not in a depression like 1932 despite widespread pessimism. It argues that economic indicators like job growth, durable goods orders, and corporate profits show the economy is growing, not contracting. While government policies add uncertainty, productivity is strong and the stock market is undervalued given low expectations. In conclusion, optimism about the economy's strength is warranted despite significant negativity.
THE RISE & FALL OF THE GDPSTUDY QUESTIONS - MGMT 4231. Wh.docxssusera34210
THE RISE & FALL OF THE GDP
STUDY QUESTIONS - MGMT 423
1. What organization calculates the GDP?
2. How do they do it? What kind of information is involved?
3. Why are security measures protecting GDP data so strict?
4. Why is GDP seen as a problematic way to measure a sustainable economy?
5. Does the conventional view of the GDP equate GDP growth to how well the country and its citizens are doing? Why do many see that as misleading?
6. What would Adam Smith think about a measurement that indicates that the wealth of the nation is growing when other measurements show that most people are getting poorer?
7. Simon Kuznets, who invented many of the indicators that now include the GDP, was concerned from the start that the GDP might be mistaken for what? _______________
8. How would GDP be a better measurement if it were calculated on the median income rather than on the average income?
9. How is the GDP compared to the dashboard on an automobile?
10) What are some of the metrics being proposed for a better “dashboard?”
11) What statistical bias likely exists in the GDP measurement concerning public-sector benefits (i.e. the common good)?
12) What distinction does the article make between people’s feelings of satisfaction in making money versus enjoyment or happiness? What policy options does that difference imply for government economic policy and the measurement of national progress?
May 10, 2010
The Rise and Fall of the G.D.P.
By JON GERTNER
Whatever you may think progress looks like — a rebounding stock market, a new house, a good raise — the governments of the world have long held the view that only one statistic, the measure of gross domestic product, can really show whether things seem to be getting better or getting worse. G.D.P. is an index of a country’s entire economic output — a tally of, among many other things, manufacturers’ shipments, farmers’ harvests, retail sales and construction spending. It’s a figure that compresses the immensity of a national economy into a single data point of surpassing density. The conventional feeling about G.D.P. is that the more it grows, the better a country and its citizens are doing. In the U.S., economic activity plummeted at the start of 2009 and only started moving up during the second half of the year. Apparently things are moving in that direction still. In the first quarter of this year, the economy again expanded, this time by an annual rate of about 3.2 percent.
All the same, it has been a difficult few years for G.D.P. For decades, academics and gadflies have been critical of the measure, suggesting that it is an inaccurate and misleading gauge of prosperity. What has changed more recently is that G.D.P. has been actively challenged by a variety of world leaders, especially in Europe, as well as by a number of international groups, like the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The G.D.P., according to arguments I heard from economists as far afie ...
Respond to each classmate initial post with 3-4 sentencesClassma.docxmackulaytoni
Respond to each classmate initial post with 3-4 sentences
Classmate # 1
How does the benefit of a comprehensive annual financial report (CAFR) seem worth the expense from your perspective?
From my point of view
, the advantage of a comprehensive annual financial report(s) seems worth the cost due to the thorough ground they cover. The story illustrates the condition of the financial plan and grants permission for funds to be spent. In the long run, if the agency wants to invest in a company CAFR provides insight in whom to do so. In my opinion, the CAFR is useful because it has knowledge about economic data.
How could management information systems provide too much information for a decision maker?
Management Information Systems may provide information as far back as five years that alone could be overwhelming for the person who is receiving the information. For example, in some cases, people ask for the previous history of the company they want to invest in. By using this method one will receive accurate information but it will probably be too much for a decision maker. To avoid confusion, a “synergy” element has been implemented to assist with difficulty and cause each component apart of the MIS to work independently (McKinney: 2004: p.430).
How would you describe the impact of fiscal strain on one of the cities or nonprofit agencies you selected for the final project? How would the tax codes affect the financial pressure?
The fiscal strain that the American Red Cross face is when there is a massive disaster and the agency can not afford to help everyone at once. For example back in 2013 there were mulltiple in Springfied, MA so many that there was a financial strain on the funds and strain on the volunteers during the disaster(Pioneer Valley). According to Mckinney (2004), one of the major causes of fiscal strain is long extended sessions of relying on federal funds and donations (p.500). There is an such thing of a agency running out of funds. Tax codes affect finanical pressure by replacing money that has already been spent so that the agency can assisting the others in a timely manner.
Is it feasible to only employ people of high integrity or implement a system of internal controls that can prevent fraud, waste, and abuse (FWA) no matter who is used?
It is possible to only employ people who have an implementation of internal control because they are the people that will have the most endurance. They are the type of people that cross every T and dot every I. the reports given by a person of this nature will ensure every report is accurate. Integrity is great trait to have, but in the cases of employees for different agencies across the world. A person involved in internal control is what is needed.
Classmate # 2
Not only does a comprehensive annual report ensure compliance and the absence of fraud or error in auditing, it provides insight into the efficiency of organization operations and is a powerful tool for management. Auditin.
The best data we have on the
upper tail of the income distribution come from Piketty and Saez’s (2003, with
updates) tabulations of individual tax returns. (Even these numbers, though, are
subject to some controversy: the tax code changes over time, altering the incentives
to receive and report compensation in alternative forms.) According to their
numbers, the share of income, excluding capital gains, earned by the top 1 percent
rose from 7.7 percent in 1973 to 17.4 percent in 2010. Even more striking is the
share earned by the top 0.01 percent—an elite group that, in 2010, had a membership
requirement of annual income exceeding $5.9 million. This group’s share of
total income rose from 0.5 percent in 1973 to 3.3 percent in 2010. These numbers
are not easily ignored. Indeed, they in no small part motivated the Occupy movement,
and they have led to calls from policymakers on the left to make the tax code
more progressive.
Non-wage income is a big component of total income in America, yet is almost never analyzed in terms of inequality and discrimination. Here we use the Tobit method to determine the likelihood of a person earning Non-Wage income.
Methodological Premises of Social Forecasting in the Context of Business organizations- Presentation at Second National Conference on Management Science and Practice
Indian Institute of Technology, Madras - March 9-11, 2007
The document discusses a new OSHA initiative to increase protections for temporary workers. It was prompted by several temporary worker deaths in the past year. The initiative requires staffing firms and client companies to ensure temporary workers have a safe workplace and necessary safety training. Both entities may now be held liable for violations. Research shows temporary workers have higher injury risks due to lack of safety training and some employers view them as expendable. The initiative aims to address this issue and protect temporary worker safety.
This document summarizes a student paper that analyzes the impact of minimum wage increases on poverty rates using data from the United States Census and Department of Labor from 2007-2010. The paper reviews existing literature which finds mixed results on the employment and poverty effects of minimum wages. It then describes the student's research design using a panel data model to estimate the effect of minimum wage increases on county and state-level poverty rates over time while controlling for unemployment, GDP, education, and crime rates. The goal is to add to the debate on whether higher minimum wages decrease poverty in the real world.
Income and consumption changes did not move in tandem; there was only a slightly positive correlation between changes in income and changes in consumption between 2013 and 2014.
Successful Investing in a Low Growth Economy: A Historical PerspectiveBen Esget
The U.S. economy has grown about 3.5% annually from the 17th century until the late 20th century. Most of American industry and wealth can be attributed to significant technological advancements starting in the Industrial Revolution. Over recent decades, productivity has significantly dropped off with some estimates of the economy growing at 1.8% annually.
Returns from innovation appear to be entering a period of stagnation. Although the causes and implications of such events remain in question, it has become increasingly vital for investors to analyze performance across similar environments in history to successfully navigate uncertain markets.
The document provides an overview of the economy and work from a sociological perspective. It begins with an outline of the key topics to be covered, including different economic systems, contemporary world economies, perspectives on the US economy and work, unemployment, worker activism, and the future of the global economy. It then provides definitions of key economic concepts like the economy, labor, capital, and goods and services. The remainder of the document discusses functionalist perspectives on the economy, characteristics of postindustrial economies, facts about job growth and security, unemployment as an issue, and examples of struggling industries.
This article summarizes a cybersecurity expert's findings that hackers employed by the Chinese regime gained access to financial systems as early as 2006 and later sold access to criminal groups. One such group has been exploiting a breach of UniTeller, a financial transfer company, to access accounts in connected banks like Fifth Third Bank. The expert has evidence of the hackers stealing funds and testing credit limits. He has warned UniTeller and banks but they have denied any breach. UniTeller subsequently took its online services offline, likely to address the issue. The expert believes the criminal group is expanding its operations through the UniTeller network breach.
DCR TrendLine July 2014 - Non Employee Workforce Insightss
DCR TrendLine shares analyses of trends and happenings in the staffing industry. The July edition covers a range of topics, including the latest employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the growing utilization of temporary workers across multiple industries. This month’s edition focuses on the Information Technology (IT) industry, highlight trends in the sector and sharing insight into employment and wages. We examine the skill gap in the industry and discuss how companies are attempting to bridge it. We also highlight how predictive analytics are being applied in human resource management and which talent acquisition metrics companies should be tracking. Our feature article this month is particularly applicable to companies with contingent workforce programs. We look at the challenges companies often face, and offer tips on keeping CW programs running smoothly.
How important a consideration is ‘building trust’ in your brand’s marketing? And what role does content play in this?
Hosted by Jill Schlesinger, Business Analyst, CBS News, our panel of opinion leaders will help the global financial services marketing community triangulate their trust decisions, incorporating:
• Media Trust: Deidre H. Campbell, Global Chair, Financial Services Sector, Edelman on its new research findings.
• Marketing Trust: Jennifer Grazel, Global Director, Vertical Marketing, LinkedIn Marketing Solutions: Financial Services on the considerations for marketing trust.
• Financial Trust: Is there a trust gap between fintech challengers and incumbent brands? Clayton Ruebensaal, VP of Global Marketing for American Express, and Elyssa Gray, VP of Brand for Betterment discuss.
The document provides an economic and real estate development strategy report for the City of Huron, Ohio. It analyzes market conditions and trends, identifies available land sites and properties, determines the best "first opportunity" site for development, and outlines a marketing strategy. Specifically, it finds that Huron's labor force and population are declining while the population is aging. Household incomes are middle to upper middle class compared to state and national levels. The report identifies the Showboat and ConAgra properties as potential redevelopment sites and recommends focusing marketing efforts on attracting residents ages 25-34 to boost the workforce.
Back in 2013, President Barack Obama used his State of the Union address to call for raising the federal $7.25 minimum wage, which has been in place since 2010, to $9. In his address on January 28, he appealed to Congress and employers to raise the minimum wage to $10.10.
DCR Trendline October 2014 - Non Employee Workforce Insightss
DCR TrendLine shares analyses of trends and happenings in the staffing industry. The October edition covers a range of topics, including the latest employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the continued growth of temporary employment. October is one of the most exciting months for sports fans, and it’s only fitting that this edition’s industry highlight is centered on sports-related employment. Our other areas of focus include how the definition and image of employees has progressed over the past decade, the increasing use of social media for recruiting, and on the value of talent supply chain management in meeting organizational talent needs. Our feature article this month is particularly applicable to companies with contingent workforce programs. We look at how vendor management systems can help companies fulfill the priorities and requirements of multiple stakeholders while meeting the shared single goal of eliminating complexity to increase operational effectiveness. - See more at: http://blog.dcrworkforce.com/dcr-trendline-october-2014#sthash.jW1AtNaQ.dpuf
Recasting_The_Role_of_Big_Data w S. BennettBarry R. Hix
This document discusses the importance of context in understanding data. It argues that "data does not speak for itself" and that relying only on correlations in big data can lead to unreliable or meaningless results if the proper context is not understood. Specifically, it notes that humans design data collection systems and analyses, and their underlying assumptions, referred to as "mental models", influence the interpretation of the data. Ignoring these human influences and assumptions behind the data is a "false and dangerous notion" that could damage businesses. Understanding the context, including possible causal relationships, is crucial for reliably answering important questions using data.
Combined with downturns in the Industrial Production Index and construction spending, the Small Business Health Index's April 2013 decline highlights the continuing struggle small businesses face in a volatile economic environment. Nevertheless, key indicators like falling unemployment are promising for the sector.
The document summarizes that the US economy is not in a depression like 1932 despite widespread pessimism. It argues that economic indicators like job growth, durable goods orders, and corporate profits show the economy is growing, not contracting. While government policies add uncertainty, productivity is strong and the stock market is undervalued given low expectations. In conclusion, optimism about the economy's strength is warranted despite significant negativity.
THE RISE & FALL OF THE GDPSTUDY QUESTIONS - MGMT 4231. Wh.docxssusera34210
THE RISE & FALL OF THE GDP
STUDY QUESTIONS - MGMT 423
1. What organization calculates the GDP?
2. How do they do it? What kind of information is involved?
3. Why are security measures protecting GDP data so strict?
4. Why is GDP seen as a problematic way to measure a sustainable economy?
5. Does the conventional view of the GDP equate GDP growth to how well the country and its citizens are doing? Why do many see that as misleading?
6. What would Adam Smith think about a measurement that indicates that the wealth of the nation is growing when other measurements show that most people are getting poorer?
7. Simon Kuznets, who invented many of the indicators that now include the GDP, was concerned from the start that the GDP might be mistaken for what? _______________
8. How would GDP be a better measurement if it were calculated on the median income rather than on the average income?
9. How is the GDP compared to the dashboard on an automobile?
10) What are some of the metrics being proposed for a better “dashboard?”
11) What statistical bias likely exists in the GDP measurement concerning public-sector benefits (i.e. the common good)?
12) What distinction does the article make between people’s feelings of satisfaction in making money versus enjoyment or happiness? What policy options does that difference imply for government economic policy and the measurement of national progress?
May 10, 2010
The Rise and Fall of the G.D.P.
By JON GERTNER
Whatever you may think progress looks like — a rebounding stock market, a new house, a good raise — the governments of the world have long held the view that only one statistic, the measure of gross domestic product, can really show whether things seem to be getting better or getting worse. G.D.P. is an index of a country’s entire economic output — a tally of, among many other things, manufacturers’ shipments, farmers’ harvests, retail sales and construction spending. It’s a figure that compresses the immensity of a national economy into a single data point of surpassing density. The conventional feeling about G.D.P. is that the more it grows, the better a country and its citizens are doing. In the U.S., economic activity plummeted at the start of 2009 and only started moving up during the second half of the year. Apparently things are moving in that direction still. In the first quarter of this year, the economy again expanded, this time by an annual rate of about 3.2 percent.
All the same, it has been a difficult few years for G.D.P. For decades, academics and gadflies have been critical of the measure, suggesting that it is an inaccurate and misleading gauge of prosperity. What has changed more recently is that G.D.P. has been actively challenged by a variety of world leaders, especially in Europe, as well as by a number of international groups, like the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The G.D.P., according to arguments I heard from economists as far afie ...
Respond to each classmate initial post with 3-4 sentencesClassma.docxmackulaytoni
Respond to each classmate initial post with 3-4 sentences
Classmate # 1
How does the benefit of a comprehensive annual financial report (CAFR) seem worth the expense from your perspective?
From my point of view
, the advantage of a comprehensive annual financial report(s) seems worth the cost due to the thorough ground they cover. The story illustrates the condition of the financial plan and grants permission for funds to be spent. In the long run, if the agency wants to invest in a company CAFR provides insight in whom to do so. In my opinion, the CAFR is useful because it has knowledge about economic data.
How could management information systems provide too much information for a decision maker?
Management Information Systems may provide information as far back as five years that alone could be overwhelming for the person who is receiving the information. For example, in some cases, people ask for the previous history of the company they want to invest in. By using this method one will receive accurate information but it will probably be too much for a decision maker. To avoid confusion, a “synergy” element has been implemented to assist with difficulty and cause each component apart of the MIS to work independently (McKinney: 2004: p.430).
How would you describe the impact of fiscal strain on one of the cities or nonprofit agencies you selected for the final project? How would the tax codes affect the financial pressure?
The fiscal strain that the American Red Cross face is when there is a massive disaster and the agency can not afford to help everyone at once. For example back in 2013 there were mulltiple in Springfied, MA so many that there was a financial strain on the funds and strain on the volunteers during the disaster(Pioneer Valley). According to Mckinney (2004), one of the major causes of fiscal strain is long extended sessions of relying on federal funds and donations (p.500). There is an such thing of a agency running out of funds. Tax codes affect finanical pressure by replacing money that has already been spent so that the agency can assisting the others in a timely manner.
Is it feasible to only employ people of high integrity or implement a system of internal controls that can prevent fraud, waste, and abuse (FWA) no matter who is used?
It is possible to only employ people who have an implementation of internal control because they are the people that will have the most endurance. They are the type of people that cross every T and dot every I. the reports given by a person of this nature will ensure every report is accurate. Integrity is great trait to have, but in the cases of employees for different agencies across the world. A person involved in internal control is what is needed.
Classmate # 2
Not only does a comprehensive annual report ensure compliance and the absence of fraud or error in auditing, it provides insight into the efficiency of organization operations and is a powerful tool for management. Auditin.
The best data we have on the
upper tail of the income distribution come from Piketty and Saez’s (2003, with
updates) tabulations of individual tax returns. (Even these numbers, though, are
subject to some controversy: the tax code changes over time, altering the incentives
to receive and report compensation in alternative forms.) According to their
numbers, the share of income, excluding capital gains, earned by the top 1 percent
rose from 7.7 percent in 1973 to 17.4 percent in 2010. Even more striking is the
share earned by the top 0.01 percent—an elite group that, in 2010, had a membership
requirement of annual income exceeding $5.9 million. This group’s share of
total income rose from 0.5 percent in 1973 to 3.3 percent in 2010. These numbers
are not easily ignored. Indeed, they in no small part motivated the Occupy movement,
and they have led to calls from policymakers on the left to make the tax code
more progressive.
Non-wage income is a big component of total income in America, yet is almost never analyzed in terms of inequality and discrimination. Here we use the Tobit method to determine the likelihood of a person earning Non-Wage income.
Jeannine Aversa and Thomas Dail present "Mining BEA Data," part of the free business journalism workshop, "Breaking Local Stories with Economic Data," hosted by the Donald W. Reynolds National Center for Business Journalism and the Investigative Reporters and Editors.
This presentation focuses on the Texas region, however the tools and resources provided can be applied anywhere in the United States.
For more information about free training for business journalists, please visit businessjournalism.org.
The maximum minimumNational Review, July 6, 2015 Every poli.docxcherry686017
The maximum minimum
National Review, July 6, 2015
Every political season, Democrats argue for higher minimum wages. Republicans respond by citing all of the evidence that higher minimum wages are harmful. Democratic voters get charged up and swing voters conclude that Republicans are heartless. It is the gift that keeps on giving for Democrats, but the curse that keeps on afflicting those below the poverty line who lose their jobs because of it.
Though Hillary Clinton has made it clear that she is going to play this game, much of the action is coming from around the country, where America's progressive mayors have taken this form of government price-setting to new heights. In Los Angeles, Mayor Eric Garcetti recently signed legislation that would raise the minimum wage in the city to $15 by 2020. And this move in Los Angeles comes on the heels of Seattle's and San Francisco's adoption of the same policy.
The evidence is clear about whether raising the minimum wage is an effective way to help poor people: It is not. As Richard V Burkhauser and T. Aldrich Finegan note in the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, those living in poverty get such a vanishingly low fraction of the benefits of a minimum-wage increase that "it is not clear that increases in the minimum wage make good policy even if no jobs are lost as a result."
As we prepare for the umpteenth political season pitting Democratic populism against a preponderance of economic evidence, let us pause and pursue the deep and enduring wisdom obtainable only through abstraction. The nearby chart takes the argument of minimum-wage proponents to its logical extreme. Suppose we grant that corporations are evil. Suppose we also grant that the only way we can improve the welfare of the poor is to redistribute by taking all of the money from the evil corporations and giving it to the working masses.
This chart transports us to this redistributive nirvana, where the government has decided to seize all of the corporate profits in the land and give them to workers. Assume, contrary to sound economic thinking and common sense, that companies continue to operate exactly as they do today, suffering no negative effects from these confiscatory taxes. How large an increase in wages can this progressive utopia finance?
To answer this question, we gathered data on after-tax corporate profits from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. We then gathered data on average hours worked per week per nonfarm employee from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and transformed these weekly data into data on the aggregate number of yearly hours worked by all nonfarm employees. Finally, we divided quarterly corporate profits by the aggregate number of hours worked by nonfarm employees over the same period, labeling this value the "expropriation subsidy" on the chart. To get an idea of how much of a perhour wage increase this policy could create, simply add the values of the two lines at a point in time.
As the c ...
The document summarizes insights into the 2016 US economy and the role of the Federal Reserve. It argues that while unemployment has decreased and GDP grown moderately, inflation has remained stagnant. This implies the Fed has boosted asset prices and confidence but not tangible economic growth. One indicator of economic growth not discussed is the gap between employer skills needs and the narrow skills of newly graduated college students, leaving the workforce saturated and unable to drive wages and inflation. The next crisis may be investors realizing the Fed's limitations as an economic growth instigator. 2016 will test the Fed's legacy as to whether rates should rise based on market expectations or remain low given only moderate economic data.
The document summarizes insights into the 2016 US economy and issues surrounding the Federal Reserve. It argues that while unemployment has decreased and GDP grown moderately, inflation has remained stagnant. This implies the Fed has boosted asset prices and confidence but not tangible economic growth. One indicator of economic growth not discussed is the skills gap between what employers require and what college graduates possess, leaving the workforce saturated and unable to drive wages and inflation. The Fed has instilled market confidence but failed to address issues in the labor force crucial to economic growth. Investors may eventually realize the Fed's limitations as an economic growth instigator.
This document analyzes caseworker turnover in social services, specifically child protective services. It discusses how high turnover rates negatively impact children and strain state budgets. Turnover is estimated to be as high as 90% annually in some areas. Common reasons for leaving include low pay, excessive caseloads of 40-60 cases per worker, and burnout. High turnover means children experience multiple caseworkers, lack of stability, and potential for needs to be overlooked. Recommendations to improve retention include increasing pay, reducing caseloads, providing counseling and training support, offering tuition reimbursement, and keeping workers involved after placement. Addressing turnover could save states money while improving outcomes for children.
Luxury home prices have plateaued while middle-class home prices have appreciated 5% in the past year. Utahns' confidence in the economy decreased slightly in January while rising nationally, with Utahns more positive about future conditions than present. A new coworking space concept is growing and providing affordable shared office space for small businesses and startups.
The dot matrix and the duality dilemmaSteven Avary
This document summarizes Steven Avary's perspective on whether the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting on December 14, 2016. Avary argues that the data is mixed and does not clearly support an interest rate hike to mitigate perceived inflationary pressures. He believes a rate increase would be driven more by a desire for political control rather than being truly data-dependent. Avary proposes differentiating between demand-pull and cost-push inflation, replacing the U-3 unemployment metric with the broader U-6, and limiting the Fed's use of open market operations and interest rate changes.
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The document summarizes several important health benefit laws administered by the Department of Labor's Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA) that protect employees' rights to health coverage and benefits. These laws include the Employee Retirement Income Security Act, the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, the Women's Health and Cancer Rights Act, the Newborns' and Mothers' Health Protection Act, the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act, and the Mental Health Parity Act. EBSA oversees these laws governing employer-provided health plans and helps ensure individuals understand their health benefits.
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The cost of college has increased 11 times since 1980, far outpacing inflation which has only increased 3 times. This has led to millions taking on crushing student debt to pay for increasingly expensive degrees. Many for-profit colleges dilute the value of education while saddling students with debt through aggressive marketing. Prospective students need to carefully research the costs and potential earnings of different programs and consider more affordable options like two-year community colleges or trade schools to avoid being left with large debts but no job prospects.
The article summarizes warnings from Simon Johnson and Peter Boone in their report "The Doomsday Cycle Turns: Who's Next?" that the developed economies of America, Japan, and countries in the euro zone are at risk of collapse due to a "doomsday cycle" where political and financial systems exacerbate risks rather than suppress them. They argue that repeated bailouts have encouraged reckless behavior by banks and that large debts and lack of reform have put these economies in a precarious position. If their financial and economic problems are not addressed soon, the risks of another global financial crisis and economic downturn are high.
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1.
The Unemployment Surprise
By John Mauldin | October 8, 2012
You Know You Were Surprised
The Eat, Drink, and Get Sick Sector
The Really Important Employment Numbers
Portland, Chicago, Atlanta, and South America
The unemployment number surprisingly dropped to 7.8% last Friday, and the shoot-from-
the-hip crowd came out in force. To say that the jobs report was met with skepticism would be a
serious understatement. The response that got the most immediate airplay was ex-GE CEO Jack
Welch (who knows a few things about making a number say what you want it to say) tweeting,
“Unbelievable job numbers … these Chicago guys will do anything … can’t debate so change
numbers.”
Not be left out, Fox Business quoted Ed Butowsky of Chapwood Capital Investment: "‘No
way in the world these numbers are accurate,’ he said. ‘Somebody needs to do an investigation....
Investigate these numbers.’"
Such a significant drop in the unemployment rate does not seem, at least on the surface, to
be consistent with the slowing economy. It certainly wasn’t what most Republicans were
expecting one month prior to the elections, and the partisan reaction from my fellow Republicans
was sadly predictable. So, since an investigation has been called for, this week we will do just that:
we will investigate the numbers. What we will find is that the falling unemployment number was
perfectly consistent with a slowing economy, if you look at the details. That seemingly
contradictory conclusion gives rise to a question, gentle reader, that will take more than one
paragraph to answer. It will make for some interesting reading, I think.
Let me start by acknowledging that one of the most dangerous things one can do in the
writing business is try to separate a man from his pet conspiracy theories. But this is one
conspiracy that needs to be thoroughly debunked, as the reaction to it is an example of the
coarsening of our American culture. If some bit of data does not dovetail with our favorite meme,
our immediate reaction is to shoot the messenger rather than examine the facts as presented. With
that proviso, let’s jump right in.
You Know You Were Surprised
Like anybody else who is paying attention to the current economic situation, I was
surprised when the headlines said that unemployment had dropped to 7.8%. A drop of that
magnitude does not seem to be historically consistent with an economy growing less than 2%,
with job growth – at least as measured by the Establishment Survey – barely keeping up with
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2. population growth, or with tax receipts that were relatively flat for the last month. My immediate
reaction was “Show me the data.” There was clearly going to be something interesting lurking
down among the details. And there was.
Before we wade into the data, though, I want to analyze the reaction. What if someone
said, “The military is manipulating the data from Iraq and Afghanistan in order to help the election
of the current administration,” (whether Republican or Democrat)? The appropriate response to
such a statement would be to suggest that such a characterization was demeaning to the
professionalism and integrity of our military professionals. I think it is doubtful that a statement
like that would get much airplay or gain much credence in the public discourse. The military is a
well-respected institution in the United States.
Yet we seemingly dismiss quite easily the professionalism of the employees of the Bureau
of Labor Statistics when their data doesn’t fit our perceptions of reality. Let’s look at what they
do. First and foremost, they collect data. In regards to employment data, they do two surveys. The
first is the Establishment Survey, which polls 400,000 companies about the number of employees
they have, whether they are full-time and part-time, and other details (along with income data).
Then there is the Household Survey, which asks 60,000 households each month how many people
live in the household and who is working, again distinguishing between full-time and part-time. If
the job is part-time, they try to determine whether the part-time work is voluntary or whether it is
for economic reasons, such as poor business conditions or because the person could only find part-
time work. If a person does not have a job, they try to determine whether they have looked for a
job within the past month or the past year.
The data they compile is surprisingly detailed. Want to know the unemployment rate in
your city or metropolitan area? It’s likely to be found in the BLS data.
The problem with conspiracy theories is that there have to be people involved. In order to
manipulate data within the BLS, you would have to get a surprisingly large number of people to
cooperate. The fact is that many of these people have been with the BLS for many years and
started working there during many different administrations, so presumably, they have different
political affiliations, making it very unlikely that everyone would have cooperated in a conspiracy
to cook the books this past month. Someone would have blown the whistle. It would be a career-
ending move to try to manipulate the data, not to mention that I’m sure there are many laws
against such manipulation.
The BLS process is rather straightforward. The data is collected and the numbers are
crunched according to a very transparent formula. And then the results are published.
The Establishment Survey is what is known as contributory. By that we mean that this data
feeds into other statistics we use in the government and business. It is considered to be accurate
data. But note that it is constantly being revised as new and better data comes in. The monthly
numbers we see first are the result of a survey, and that survey is as accurate as they can make it.
But then actual data comes in the form of contact reports from state authorities and other sources,
and the numbers are adjusted. Only a few of us data wonks pay much attention to the revisions.
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3. The Household Survey is not, to my knowledge, contributory. The only major number we
really get from it is the employment rate. As we will see in a few paragraphs, this survey is quite
“noisy” from one month to the next, although over a period of about a year it conforms rather well
to the Establishment Survey.
The following chart, courtesy of The Big Picture, shows a rather tight correlation between
the two surveys. “Separately, and almost certainly unknown to Mr. Welch, the BLS issues a
technical document every month that address the trends in both surveys. That document can be
found here and contains the following chart:
“Among the objectives of the monthly analysis is to produce an Adjusted Household
Survey (seen above). BLS:
“This [Adjusted Household Survey] is a research series created from household survey
employment to be more similar in concept and definition to payroll survey employment.
Household survey employment is adjusted by subtracting agriculture and related employment,
nonagricultural self employed, unpaid family workers, private household workers, and workers
absent without pay from their jobs, and then adding nonagricultural wage and salary multiple
jobholders. The effects of population control revisions also have been smoothed out in the
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4. historical data in this series.
“But you knew that, right, Jack [Welch]? The Adjusted Household Survey shows that
1.836MM jobs have been created over the past 12 months. The Payroll Survey? 1.806MM. The
difference between the two over the course of a year? A paltry 30,000. While there may
occasionally be wide month-to-month swings (and the Household Survey is known to be the more
volatile of the two), the two series generally track fairly closely over time, which is how data
should generally be observed.” (The Big Picture)
In past letters, when commenting on the employment situation, I have noted that there are
times when the Household Survey seriously underestimates the number of jobs, as compared to
the Establishment Survey. This month the disparity is in the other direction. That is a function of
the methodology of the survey. I’m sure that if BLS spent more money it could survey more
households and get a more accurate picture, but I doubt it would be worth the money.
In summary, the fine people at the BLS do their best to collect the data is accurately as
possible and make it available as quickly as possible. The formulas by which they interpret the
data are well-known. To suggest otherwise demonstrates a lack of understanding of the process
and essentially defames the people involved. If you don’t like what the data says, don’t shoot the
messenger.
This is not a recent problem. In 2003-04 Democrats were constantly deriding the positive
statistics coming out of the BLS. Dr. Austan Goolsbee, Obama’s ex-chief economic advisor,
accused the government of “cooking the books” on the unemployment number in a New York
Times article in late 2003 entitled “The Index of Missing Economic Indicators; The
Unemployment Myth.” I actually agreed (and still do) with his analysis, just not his partisan
rhetoric and conclusion, but that’s a story for another letter.
(http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/30/opinion/the-index-of-missing-economic-indicators-the-
unemployment-myth.html – hat tip Bill King)
Now, with that out of the way, it is totally fair game to question the basis for the
interpretation of the data. The way the government derives the unemployment numbers has
changed significantly over the last 30 years. No surprise, then, that whatever administration is
involved, the new equations for determining unemployment result in a lower unemployment rate
than they would have if the 1980s methodology were still in place.
You are not counted as unemployed if you have not looked for a job for the last four
weeks, by the current BLS methodology. That policy is very clear, and to my knowledge the
policy was the same during the Bush administration.
I find that methodology rather bizarre. There are many people who have not looked for a
job in the last four weeks; but if you asked, I bet just about every one of them would consider
themselves unemployed. They would take a job if they could find one. That, to me, should be the
definition of unemployed. And if you use the raw data, you can come up with that number on your
own. Or you can create whatever definition of unemployment you want.
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5. (There are literally hundreds of BLS data series. Want to know how Vietnam vets are
doing? Hispanic women under 25? Married Asian males over 55? Unemployment just in your
state or city? It’s there somewhere if you care to look. I am constantly amazed at the granularity of
the data.)
John Williams of ShadowStats calculates his own unemployment and CPI numbers based
on the older methodology (from the early ’80s); and, no surprise, it shows unemployment to be
much higher than the government says. The Gallup organization would like us to measure the
payroll-to-population ratio. If you’re not disabled and you’re receiving unemployment or welfare
benefits I think you should be counted as unemployed.
Now we can come to the question of how we can have a drop in unemployment that is
consistent with a very slowly growing economy. Bill King noted that employment taxes actually
fell in September, then asked, how can 873,000 jobs have been generated, according to the
Household Survey?
Median Real Disposable Income is up only 0.2% annually over the past few years, against
the postwar average of 2.9%. The increase in average hourly earnings hasn’t kept pace with the
rate of inflation, which means that workers are losing ground. Dr. Lacy Hunt estimates that about
1.5% of GDP growth in the first quarter was from manufacturing. Manufacturing jobs have been
flat for the last two quarters.
For the last three years, while we were averaging between 120,000-160,000 new jobs a
month that paid between $20,000-40,000, we were losing anywhere from 20,000-60,000 jobs a
month that paid more than $70,000. A detailed study of job status earlier this year by the Center
for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University found that more than 53% of college
graduates under 25 were underemployed last year – working in jobs unequal to their college or
postgraduate attainment.
All of this is to say there is a reason why we don’t feel that unemployment dropped by 6%
last month: we’re not seeing a brighter jobs outlook reflected in our paychecks.
The Eat, Drink, and Get Sick Sector
The Establishment Survey found only 114,000 new jobs. (Philippa Dunne of the Liscio
Report noted wryly, “Our old friend the eat, drink, and get sick sector (bars and restaurants plus
health care) accounted for 52% of total job gains.” There were significant revisions to the prior
two months, but almost all of those jobs were in government (education-related) jobs. This bump
in government jobs is part of a pattern and not a conspiracy of politicians to make things look
better.
As noted above, the unemployment rate is taken from the volatile Household Survey. This
month it shows 873,000 jobs created. 582,000 of those jobs were part-time for economic reasons.
That means people wanted more work but could only get part-time jobs. 7.25% of all part-time
jobs were created just last month!
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6. The BLS also gives us something called the U-6 unemployment rate, which is the total
unemployed plus all marginally attached workers employed part-time for economic reasons. Right
now the U6 unemployment rate is 14.7%, which is exactly where it was one month ago. The chart
below is for the last year, and you can easily see that there’s been no change in the last month.
That means the entire drop in the headline unemployment rate is from the increase in part-
time workers. That such significant numbers of people can only find part-time work is not a sign
of a strong and growing economy. It is however completely consistent with a flat, lackluster
economy.
If the next 0.3% drop in the unemployment rate is again due to a gain in the number of
part-time workers, I don’t think anybody will be talking about how strong the US economy is.
And it makes sense, at least to me, that the number of part-timers rises in September. There
is something in the American experience that says September is the time to go back to work. It
comes from our public school system, which traditionally had the school year beginning in
September. You can see this phenomenon when you look at the non-seasonally adjusted numbers
for part-time workers. They show a big drop-off in summer and a correspondingly big increase in
the fall. Look at how volatile the annual numbers have been for the last 10 years. And we can
show the same thing for the last 60 years. (This is one of the reasons why we look at seasonally
adjusted numbers rather than the volatile raw data.)
People graduating from college, for instance, might spend the summer looking for a job,
but when September rolls around they take what they can get, even if it is a part-time job.
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7. The Really Important Employment Numbers
Look at the next few charts. What they show is the devastation from the last recession.
There is a reason that people call it the Great Recession.
“We've now regained close to half – 48% – of the jobs lost between December 2007 and
February 2010 (the low in employment, eight months after the recession's formal end). It's still
going to take about 40 months at current rates of job growth to regain all the losses, but it's worth
acknowledging the progress that's been made. (The Liscio Report)
Note that we regain all the losses only if there is not a recession in the next 40 months. If
there is a recession, recovery will take even longer as we once again lose more jobs. Now, we’re
back only to roughly where we were at the beginning of 2009, when Obama took office.
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8. The labor-force participation rate is now below where it was in 1980. This statistic has
been in decline for 12 years, and precipitously so since the beginning of 2008.
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9. Even more distressing is the civilian employment-to-population ratio. While it might only
take us another four years or more to get back to the number of jobs that we had in 2007, the
population is growing each and every year; so it is going to take us even longer to get anywhere
close to the ’07 employment-to-population ratio. Five years? Seven years? Ten years?
The unemployment rate is a function of the number of people looking for work and/or
participating in the labor force. The drop of 2.5% in the participation rate masks the severity of the
unemployment rate. Do we really think that, since 2007, 2.5% of the population has decided they
don’t want a job?
We are employing almost 5% fewer people as a percentage of our population than we were
at the beginning of 2008. That means our real unemployment-to-population level is well over
12%. So we’re not even close to where we were in 1999, during the last year of the Clinton
administration.
And that doesn’t take into account the 50% of college graduates who are underemployed.
A significant part of the problem is simply the fact that we are trying to recover from a
deleveraging recession. The data suggests that such recoveries may take 10 years. For Japan it is
more than 20 years, and counting.
The solution, of course, is to once again grow the economy over 3% per year for a decade,
as we did for the 60 years following the Great Depression and for almost the last two centuries, up
till the beginning of the new millennium. This is something we have not done for 12 years,
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10. averaging much less than 2%. Analysts are now estimating that corporate earnings were down for
the last quarter. Yet it is the private sector that we need to both create jobs and to generate
additional income that will enable us to afford the level of government that we want.
Increasing oil and gas production will help, of course, especially if we can turn natural gas
into chemicals made in the US for export. But we will need whole new industries, just as
computers created such growth in the ’80s and ’90s. And of course we must rein in the size of
government and our deficit. But those are topics we’ll return to in another letter (and book!).
Portland, Chicago, Atlanta, and South America
I fly some 60-80 times a year. I have to say I was rather surprised to hear Al Gore suggest
that it was perhaps the altitude of Denver that was responsible for Obama’s off night. I can
remember landing in Denver and speaking two hours later and being just fine. Then again, I have
flown into cities at sea level and been flat as a pancake. I don’t think it happens often, and I’m not
sure of the reasons, but sometimes I am just not as sharp as usual on the podium. It happens to the
best of speakers. Obama still has two debates to go. I know style counts, but I would like to think
that most Americans were listening to the discussion of the issues. We’re not voting for class
president. The decisions that the next president makes will affect us profoundly.
I leave Wednesday morning to go to Portland to speak for Common Sense Investments,
and they have invited me to stay the next day and go pheasant hunting. I will get to be with my
good friend and hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, whose insights I greatly admire. The next week I
will be in Chicago, once again speaking for Common Sense Investments, and then move on to
Atlanta to speak at Hedge Funds Care. Then it’s home for a week before I ship off to South
America at the end of the month (Sao Paulo, Montevideo, and Buenos Aires).
To help do our part in creating job growth, Mauldin Economics is looking for a high-
quality marketing copywriter to assist us with writing assignments related to our letters. Rather
than send a resumé, I'd like to encourage experienced candidates to submit a short sample (250-
500 words max) of their writing, along with their contact information. The team will review your
work and, if we are interested, we’ll contact you. Candidates should have an understanding of
finance, economics, and direct marketing, and ample respect for my readers. In other words,
fraudsters and hypers need not apply. You can contact us at Talent@MauldinEconomics.com.
This coming weekend I really do want to get down to Houston for my 40th Rice University
class reunion. It also coincides with Rice’s centennial year, so there will be lots of interesting
things going on, as well as many old friends to reconnect with. I turned 63 last week, and as I was
graduating from Rice, that age sounded rather ancient. Now I feel like I am just hitting my stride,
albeit with a few more aches and pains in the joints than 40 years ago.
It really is time to hit the send button. I had to go to Houston yesterday (Sunday), so I got
started rather late on my first day of writing this letter on what was supposed to be Sunday
afternoon. Oh well, the best laid plans and all that. Have a great week, and thanks for your
comments and suggestions. I do read them.
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11. Your looking forward to the next 40 analyst,
John Mauldin
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