1) Constitutional change in Northern Ireland is challenging as changing a status that has been in place for 100 years is difficult. 2) Unionism and nationalism are shrinking as those who are neither, estimated at around 20%, now outnumber those committed to either side. 3) Demographic arguments alone will not work as the goal should be uniting all people on the island, not pursuing tribal dominance. Positive actions are needed over demanding immediate constitutional change.

1. Can the Union be saved?
Battle of Ideas

2. Can the Union survive?
To survive Unionists only have to make NI hospitable to ALL its people
Nationalism cannot win a border poll on the votes of Catholics (and a
few disgruntled dissenters) alone
Changing a constitutional status that’s been in place for 100 years is
where the bigger challenge lies

3. Unionism and nationalism are shrinking
Non unionists/ non nationalists now outnumber those all of those who
are constitutionally committed
This is a bigger problem for those who advocate change over those
supporting the status quo
Unlike Scotland, in Northern Ireland the change proposition is still
hugely polarising and more significantly it’s a minority

4. Single identity appeals won’t work
Any campaign based on “Demographics only” is a thinly veiled bid for
tribal dominance and accordingly will fail.
Number of Protestants is dropping but between 2001 and 2011 the
growth of Catholics was less than 1%
Rather than heading towards an uneasy 50/50 stand off, the number of
‘neither’ is growing (about 20%)
Taboos in education are dying. Many “Catholics” demand entrance to
state grammars (and the right to play British sports)

5. The British Union (the UK) is not the EU
Built on blood and treasure, not a government to government treaty
Loudest advocates of unification also champion the long war (2152
killings)
But there are over 200 all island organisations who have survived
partition
Who have a template “to unite all the people who share the territory of
the island of Ireland”

6. In summary…
Constitutional change is not a panacea
Demanding it in the short term (when it’s unviable) crowds out positive
actions that would “unite all the people”
There is a journey to be gone on, without preconditions (as GA used to
say)
Doug Beattie’s Union of People is a brave attempt to shift the unionist
narrative
The shared island initiative of the FF led government is an invitation to
“play”

7. Sir Edward Carson, House of Commons, June 9, 1913
“…if ever you are going to bring about a united Ireland, to bring the Ulster
portion of the community into line with the rest of Ireland, you will never do it
by any means except those of persuasion. You must show and explain to them
what is your case for turning them out of the United Kingdom, and, in addition,
what is the advantage they are going to gain when they are turned out. I think
the Nationalists of Ireland will have to try different methods from what they
have tried for the last twenty years.”

8. There are good people in all parties
But we do have to be vigilant about the stories we tell ourselves about
ourselves
Ben Okri said “Sick storytellers can make nations sick”.
Choose between stories that shrink life and those that expand it
Whether that is within the present United Kingdom or a future politically
unified island