Apple and Google are two of the strongest, most profitable tech giants today. But both are in for a kick in the ass, here is why. Disruption is the name of the game. Great businesses die from one of two main reasons: failure to innovate or a powerful disruption. From my vantage point, both Apple and Google are firmly in those categories. In-depth analysis of Apple and Google's core businesses and plans for future growth and expansion.

1. The Death of Google and End of Apple
And Why Amazon will Win...

2. Apple and Google are two of the strongest, most profitable tech giants
today. But both are in for a kick in the ass, here is why.
Disruption is the name of the game. Great businesses die from one of two
main reasons: failure to innovate or a powerful disruption. From my
vantage point, both Apple and Google are firmly in those categories.

3. Steve Jobs must be rolling over in his grave. From one of the great innovators of all
time to one of business’s most logistically efficient conmen, Tim Cook is driving
Apple into the ground and grabbing dollars by the fistful.
Everyone understands the pros and cons of short vs long term
thinking/gratification. And Apple for one is focused on the short term.

4. Alexa will be your personal Amazon Basics
shopping assistant (see more about Amazon
engulfing ecommerce here). That spells trouble for
Google. Amazon accounts for a huge (yet ever
dwindling) portion of Google’s revenue (in 2013
Amazon spent $157.7 million on Google ads, by
2016 their marketing spend was up to $7B

5. Cook’s greatest innovations have been dongles and adapters
and connectors and crap designed to milk fanboys for all
they are worth. Apple isn’t focused on usability or innovation
anymore, they are focused on annoying, high margin
accessories that have driven profits and market caps through
the roof in recent years.

6. Removing ports, removing headphone jacks, removing all simple functionality to
force an additional purchase, all in the name of profit and aesthetics is downright
troublesome. And Apple’s flops on new product lines and innovation are awfully
embarrassing — the Macbook Pro slider, the Watch, the car, the marginally better
iPhone at ever increasing prices…

7. Apple is building fluff features for the sake of showmanship and sales… that is
usually a formula for disaster.
The question is how long will Apple fans feel okay being dragged through the dirt
and robbed blind by Apple. It isn’t what have you done for me, it is what have you
done for me lately… is Apple’s brand of old enough to carry to quick buck
appearance of greatness and brand?

8. Rome falls at the pinnacle of it’s opulence and Apple’s $5B spaceship headquarters is
arguably the best product since the iPhone. Mhm.
Bold prediction: Apple has peaked and short term greed has offset long term growth
mindset. This is a company that HAS to buy someone to save their own ass and remain
relevant.

9. Logical Acquisitions: Netflix, Spotify, AR acqui-hire (and definitely not
Tesla)
Logical Expansions: Focus on podcasts and advertising to unseat radio
and drive ad dollars through iTunes.
Podcasting and curated streaming content creates obvious synergies with
iPhone and value-add upsells to existing customer base.

10. Hailmary Shot: Augmented reality could save Apple, if they are smart
enough to execute well. Apple is a hardware/software company with raving
fans and design aesthetic. If Apple can outperform competitors and create a
new category defining product, AR is almost certainly it. Augmented reality
will disrupt touch and screen based interfaces. Apple needs to lead from the
front, rather than following to keep up and keep the brand relevant.

11. “Ok Google, I don’t want to
hear another ad!”

12. Amazon no longer needs to advertise on Google. Amazon is organically outranking
everything else and has a massive customer base who consistently shop direct via
Amazon.

13. If voice disrupts Google core search/ads business, the business fueling
their driverless cars, their wifi balloons, Google Ventures and all of
Alphabet’s interesting arms, how can the company survive?
Obviously they have been thinking about this, which explains their weird
assortment of products and projects. But it still poses a fundamental
question:
in a world of voice, what is Google?

14. Google recently partnered with Walmart.com. Talk about a match made in hell. Both companies
could care less about the other and realize the futility of working together but what option do
they have? Google NEEDS an ecommerce play. And Walmart can’t figure out acquisition and
growth against Amazon. Talk about two drowning men each pulling each other down.

15. Logical Acquisitions/Partnerships: Lyft, Blockchain/distributed
internet startup (Block.one for instance), Overcast (or other
podcasting app/platform)
Logical Expansions: Like Google, Apple has an incredible
opportunity to win AR/VR and/or voice. They ARE NOT a hardware
company though they are trying to be. If Google can create the
infrastructure and tools needed in these new mediums, they might be
able retain their role as operating system of the internet.

16. Hailmary Shot: Google should be working on a blockchain based
Internet 4.0. If distributed networks are able to displace incumbent closed
systems, all existing internet companies will be in trouble. Google is
uniquely suited with their experience building/designing much of how we
use the web today to try and create the web of tomorrow.

17. Google’s great work in voice and NLP is disrupting their core
business. Apple’s short-sightedness insignificant upsells is
setting the company up for challenges.
We have two of the greatest tech companies of all time, both
put in positions of potential peril. How can they survive, how
can they thrive?

18. Google’s partnership with Lyft is a HUGE plus here. These
two can win autonomous, in which case Google will
successfully morph its core business and wind up winning
anyways.

19. Apple on the other hand has more work ahead of them.
Google has been creatively probing the future. Apple has been
content to hide and hold profits and build a nest egg.

20. Will both companies survive the next 15 years? Will either? Who?
Would love to hear your thoughts on the future for Google and Apple.
What are your favorites from the Big 4?
I got my money on Amazon (Here is why Amazon is killing ecommerce).

21. The End...maybe?
For more on Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods and its implications for
grocery/retail, check out this post.
For more on implications of ICOs and blockchain on disrupting marketplaces,
check out this post.
Interested in startup investing? The
Syndicate podcast interviews top investors
like Gil Penchina, Semil Shah, Zach Coelius
and more for engaged discussions on tech
investing.
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