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CONSULTING PROJECT
Alex Field, Thomas Claes Johnson, Mac McGuire, Parker Powell, Sindy Wang
o Tesla History: Key Events
o Industry S-Curves: Car & Automobile Manufacturing
o Tesla as a Disruptive Technology
o Tesla: Sources of Attractiveness
o How Do Innovations Diffuse? A Look into Tesla
o Issue: Too Expensive
o Recommendation: Cut Costs
o Tesla’s Efforts in Cost Cutting
o Recommendation: Create State Incentive Programs
o Issue: Insufficient Infrastructure
o Recommendation: Increase Infrastructure
o Issue: Straight-to-Consumer Retail Model Blocked by Lobbyists
o Recommendation: Increase Spending on Lobbying
o Conclusion
2003
2006
2009
2010
2012
20142013
2015
Tesla Motors is
incorporated
Begins production
of the Roadster
Model S unveiled
$465m loan from
Department of
Energy
Daimler
investment
subsidiary buys
19.1m shares of
convertible
preferred stock
TSLA IPO launched
Panasonic purchases
1.4m shares
Toyota purchases
2.9m shares
Announced
partnership to
develop powertrain
system with Toyota
RAV4
Started building
Supercharger
Network across
America
Unveiled designs
and plans for Model
X
ExtremeTech “Best
Selling Luxury Car
Gigafactory announcement
200th Tesla Charging Station
opened (2 months later,
300th opened)
Musk announces anyone can
use their patent in good faith
Consumers report “Best
Overall Car”
400th Tesla charging station
- 1st solar powered charging
station
Model 3 announcement
- Before incentives: $35k
- After incentives: ~$25k
Tesla History: Key Events
Industry S-Curves
Car & Automobile Manufacturing
Time
EV
Hybrid
Performance
Internal
Combustion
Fuel Cell
Diminishing
returns on
R&D?
Exceeding
market
needs?
New S-curve
close to
inflection
point?
Identified
market
segment of
early
adopters?
Enter market
Market
research
R&D
partnership
Marker on
strategic
game board
Status Quo
Disruptive
Technology
NO
NO
NO
NO
YES
YES
YES
YES
• First developed in 1860, the internal combustion engine has long been our
most commonly used source of power to move automobiles
• At max efficiency, our most modern engine operates at a maximum thermal
efficiency of 25-30%
• 70% of the thermal energy released by consumed gasoline is wasted
“We are currently in a stage at which improvements in internal combustion
engines are running into diminishing returns”
Tesla: Disruptive Technology
Diminishing Returns to R&D
• Development of Tesla batteries currently at inflection point
• Current Tesla estimates place battery at $30k-40k
• Industry-wide cost estimates declined by 14% annually between 2007 and 2014
• $1,000 per kWh to around $300 for market leaders, including Tesla
• Battery costs will reach $230 per kWh by 2018
• Estimated further cost reduction if production doubled: 6%-9% per battery
• Batteries are a major cost driver for fully electric vehicles
• As they cheapen, so will total ownership cost
Tesla: Disruptive Technology
New S-Curve Close to Inflection Point
Tesla: Disruptive Technology
New S-Curve Close to Inflection Point
Consumer Appeal
• Sleek design
• Quiet in drive
• 0 to 60mph in under 4
seconds
• No traditional fuel costs
Environmental Appeal
• Zero emissions
• Sustainable energy
source
Sources of Attractiveness
A Look Into Tesla
Relative Advantage
Is it better than the product it replaces?
• More environmentally friendly, cheaper in the long run
• BUT it is too expensive
Compatibility
Is it consistent with existing value and experiences?
• You drive it as you would any other car
• BUT charging stations are not widely available
Complexity
Is it difficult to understand and use?
• You drive it as you would any other car
• Could carry perception of being technologically complex
Trialability
Can the product be experimented with on a limited basis?
• Test drives can be requested online or through retail stores
• VIP test drives
Observability
Are product usage and impact visible to others?
• Highly visible in news, social media
• BUT not many people own it in real life
Price & Cost
per unit
Industry
Average
Competitor
Margin
Costs
Costs
Margin
Priceavg
Costavg
$32,000
$28,160
$100,000
50,000
0
Issue: Too Expensive
Price/Cost Comparison
Cut Costs
• Decrease cost per unit of batteries and production process through
economies of scale by doubling current production
• Estimated 8% decrease
• Continue to partner with companies that can utilize lower capital cost
to make car more affordable
• US Bank does not operate on East Coast, find regional partners
Cost Cutting
Estimated production costs per battery:
- Market Average: $400/kWh
- Tesla: $300/kWh
“If batteries fall as low as $150/kWh could lead to paradigm shift in vehicle tech”
• At current rate, a conservative estimate by 2018 is $230/kWh
Gigafactory currently under construction
• Instrumental to dramatically reducing cost per unit and increasing supply of tech
• Will decrease cost of Tesla battery by more than 30% by 2020
• Will be able to meet estimated world demand in 2020 but must avoid pitfalls of
low utilization if demand does not meet expectations
Bay Area factory cost < one third of US average cost ($1b)
• Focused attempt to lower costs in order to compete with conventional car models
2014 Partnership with US Bank
• Decreases leasing cost by 25%
• 37/50 states have incentive programs to promote purchase of hybrid or EV cars
•In addition to existing Federal Tax exemption of $7,500
•Target remaining 13 states
• The Northeast presents a major market for Tesla
• Highly educated/environmentally aware market
• BUT most of it has no current state incentives
• Tesla lobbying headquarters are in Carson City, California due to gigafactory
lobbying efforts, but it is no longer a strategically positioned office
• The West Coast has adopted technology well
• Focus lobbying efforts on NE
Create State Incentive Programs
• 400 Supercharger stations vs. 168,000 retail fuel locations for internal
combustion engines
• Supercharger  30 minute charge = 170 miles
• Regular charging stations  outdated, 1 hour charge = 30-60 miles
Issue: Insufficient Infrastructure
US Supercharger Locations
Increase Infrastructure
Partner with regional utility providers
• Existing grid has enough excess capacity to support over 150 million electric cars
(75% of all cars driven in USA)
Why would utility providers partner with us?
• SolarCity (founded by Elon Musk) has ability to underprice current providers
by reselling stored energy back into grid
• This would allow Tesla/SolarCity to leverage their threat to industry and
gain favorable deal
• More outlets = more revenue
Convenience of charging locations will help in the diffusion of EV technology:
• Increased compatibility resulting in higher observability
• Increased value of product, stimulating revenues
Issue: Dealership PACs Preventing Straight-to-Consumer
Retail Model
Lobbyists/Tesla Political Contributions
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
New Jersey (2014) Texas (2013)
PoliticalContributions($)
Millions
Lobbyists
Tesla
• Tesla lost against Car Dealership PAC group in both New Jersey and Texas,
preventing their ability to sell directly to customers
• Between 2003 and 2012 Car Dealership PACS spent $140m,compared to Tesla’s
$500k
• Average annual expenditure difference of $15,611,111 vs. $55,555
Loss in NJ stats
•2nd Most liquid millionaires as % of population in America
•456,949 millionaires
•Unable to meet large possible customer base
• Inability to retail in both Texas and NJ creates loss of ability to target 700,000
millionaires
•0.25% of this group = 17,500 cars
•17,500 purchases  15% margin (25% actual)  increase of $262m in NI
Issue: Dealership PACs Preventing Straight-to-Consumer
Retail Model
Implications
• Current Dealership PACs are preventing Tesla from selling
• Tesla should increase lobbying expenditures to counter Dealership PACs
and to gain state acceptance
•4x-6x current expenditures
•Increasing total to approximately $4m-$6m
Increase Spending on Lobbying
Issues
• Too expensive
• Insufficient infrastructure
• Dealership PACs are preventing straight-to-consumer retail
model
Recommendations
1. Cut costs:
- Decrease cost per unit
- Create state incentive programs with a focus on the Northeast
2. Increase infrastructure:
- Partner with regional utility providers
3. Lobby:
- Increase lobbying expenditures
o PEST: Key Trends
o Industry: Car & Automobile Manufacturing
o Five Forces Structural Analysis
o Industry: Trends & Dynamics
o Analysis of Strategic Effectiveness
o Key Competitor Analysis
o Strategic Positioning of Industry Firms
o Sources of Competitive Advantage
o Tesla: Key Activities
o Tesla’s Strategic Issues
Key Trends
Car & Automobile Manufacturing
P
E
S
T
● Government Regulation: Increased environmental standards for global supply
chain, factory emissions, car emissions in CAFE, and general safety standards
● US gov’t has subsidized Tesla R&D: Department of Energy’s Advanced Tech
Vehicle Manufacturing Loan Program. $7,500 Federal Tax credit for purchasing
car
● Economy coming out of recession and showing strong growth
● Increasing consumer spending power over last few years
● “Stakeholder” not just “shareholder” model becoming popular
● Increasing volatility and destabilization in middle east→ greater foreign oil
uncertainty
● Increasing awareness of Global Climate Change and impact of vehicle
emissions
● Greater need for energy efficiency in vehicles to “support your mother earth”
● Millennial generation not as car crazy as baby boomers
● Diminishing returns to investment with Internal Combustion Engine
● Tesla battery reaching inflection point on S-Curve
● Decreasing costs per unit for rechargeable car battery
● Ability for current grid to support mass shift to electric vehicles
Industry
Car & Automobile Manufacturing
oThreat of New Entrants: Low
oThreat of Substitutes: Medium-Low
oPower of Suppliers: Medium-Low
oPower of Buyers: Medium-Low
oIndustry Rivalry: Medium-High
Overall, the car and automobile manufacturing industry is
dominated by a handful of large firms. The large firms tend to
have cars at numerous price points. Brand recognition is strong
and there are low switching costs.
Unfavorable
MEDIUM-HIGH
• GM, BMW, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Tesla
• Buyer propensity to switch car brands
• Low product differentiation
• High exit barriers – car value goes way
down after driving it off the lot
• Customer loyalty to specific brands
• Huge advertising and marketing costs
• Non-luxury vehicle cost is major
determinant for buyer due to lack of
differentiation
• 6 firms have 68% of market
• Firms compete on price, fuel economy,
reliability, styling and utility
MEDIUM-LOW
• Consumers and dealerships are
major buyers
• The market (mostly made up of
individual consumers) determines
consumers’ WTP
• Price sensitive buyers
• Increasing availability of
information
• Medium brand loyalty
• Buyers cannot backwards integrate
• Industry has ability to forward
integrate (eg. Tesla)
• Buyer concentration much lower
than industry
MEDIUM-LOW
• Willing to compromise prices to form
partnerships with automobile firms
• Diversity of firms the supplier sells its
products to (usually 1 or 2)
• Additional factors affecting entry
include large capital investment in
human resources and equipment to
produce automotive parts
• Automotive firms can threaten to
switch providers
• Suppliers unlikely to drive average
industry profits down unless they all
agree to increase prices/switching
costs
RIVALRY
POWER OF
BUYERS
POWER OF
SUPPLIERS
LOW
• Very capital intensive industry
• Large investments required to achieve sustainable economies of scale
• Without economies of scale, extremely difficult to achieve profitability
• Cost of distribution is high, must establish dealership network and licensing
• Threat of retaliation from large firms if challenge their market segment
• High regulatory costs associated with manufacturing, inputs and outputs
• Cost of compliance with environmental benchmarks can be expensive for small firms
THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS
MEDIUM-LOW
• Developed public transportation in urban areas
• Threat is lower in rural where subways and bus systems are not prevalent
• Low switching costs in urban areas, similar value, lower costs to participate
• Rural areas have few substitutes, high switching costs and dissimilar value proposition
• Public transportation tends to be irregular and stiff with locations served
• Cannot access reasonable substitutes outside of developed urban areas with public transit
THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES
Industry
Car & Automobile Manufacturing: Trends & Dynamics
Trend 1: Tech Development
o Cheaper development of Tesla battery will
cause fundamental shift in industry
o Less demand for internal combustion,
consumer will place greater value in the
cheaper (per mile) alternative
o Firms will need to invest heavily in R&D or
license tech from Tesla
Impact on 5 Forces
Trend 2: Environment
o Consumer preferences shifting towards
“green” option will further decrease
demand for pure internal combustion
powered vehicles
o Increased desire for hybrid/electric vehicles
o Need for traditional companies to change
public image
Total Impact
on Industry Π
BTE
Rivalry
Substitutes
Rivalry
Supplier
Power
Analysis of Financial Performance
Economic
Average
Industry
Influence
Strategy
Influence
-7.1%
Company’s
Profitability
3.1%
Industry
Profitability
4% -0.9%
Car & Automobile Manufacturing Industry
o Firms in this industry are engaged in the manufacturing of cars in the United States. Their finished
products are hybrid, fully electric, and internal combustion engine powered cars.
Industry Firms
o General Motors, Toyota, Ford, Fiat Chrysler
Industry: Good or Bad?
o Tesla is in a highly cyclical industry. The ROA for this industry is less than the economic average,
however this is to be expected because the industry is very asset intensive. This industry has a
negative influence on profits.
Outperforming or underperforming the industry average?
o Tesla is underperforming the industry. According to this graphic, our strategic influence is -10%.
The combination of negative strategy and industry influence places us at 11.1%, below economic
average ROA.
Analysis of Strategic Effectiveness
-10%
Key Competitor Analysis
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Tesla GM Toyota Ford Fiat
ReturnonAssets(%)3yravg.
* We compared profitability using ROA because the manufacturing of vehicles is asset intensive,
and we believe this best reflects firm efficiency.
Cost Leadership Differentiation
Broad
Narrow
Scope
Source of Strategic Advantage
IndustryASP
Strategic Positioning of Industry Firms
Toyota
VW
BMW
M.
Benz
GM
Ford
Fiat
Chrysle
r
Consumer Appeal
• Sleek design
• Quiet in drive
• 0 to 60mph in under 4
seconds
• No traditional fuel costs
Environmental Appeal
• Zero emissions
• Sustainable energy source
Strong Partnership Value
• Mercedes, Toyota,
Panasonic
Sources of Competitive Advantage
Effective
procurement of
components
Premium
distribution
Operational
Effectiveness
No traditional
marketing
expenditures
After-sale
support
In-house
manufacturing of
most important
components
Short-term
agreements
with numerous
suppliers
Production
based on
demand
Highly
innovated,
automated
manufacturing
process
Network of own
retailers in high
foot traffic
locations
Timely
delivery of
components
Easily
reprogrammed
multi-function
robots
Educating
customers about
benefits of
electric cars
Online
reservations
Showrooms
Celebrity Tesla
owners (free
advertising)
Web-based
short films
Own service
centers in
Europe,
Asia, North
America
Super-fast free
charging station
network
50,000
mile
warranty
policyGood relationship
with strategic
suppliers
YouTube ad
campaigns
Cost
reduction
All free
money
invested in
R&D
Constant
innovation
New
gigafactory
Tesla: Key Themes & Activities
Tesla’s Strategic Issues
o Key issues facing industry: Low interest rates and economic growth will continue to boost this
industry, a raise in rates or economic slowdown will threaten revenue growth
o Key issues for Tesla
▪ Lack of charging stations makes long distance travel an inconvenience
▪ High price of product, only current offering is luxury vehicle, limits market based on WTP
o What more information do you need to fully understand these issues?
▪ Cost to produce a Tesla battery
▪ Can Tesla utilize economies of scale to further drive down product cost
o What are the firm’s prospects for long-term competitive advantage?
▪ Decreased product price and increased concentration of charging stations will help make EV
close to standard car convenience
▪ Increasing environmental awareness will help create a sustainable advantage over standard
car manufacturers
o What kind of recommendations can you make to the firm to help it become more profitable in the
future?
▪ Infrastructure development to support ease of charging
▪ Lobby states to incentivize alternative energy and electric vehicles
Ohnsman, Alan. "Tesla Motors Cuts Factory Cost to Try to Generate Profit." Bloomberg.com. April 12, 2012. Accessed
April 13, 2015.
Hartman, Kristy. "State Efforts Promote Hybrid and Electric Vehicles." National Conference of State Legislatures. March
12, 2015. Accessed April 2, 2015.
Orcutt, Mike. "Inexpensive Electric Cars May Arrive Sooner Than You Think." MIT Tech Review. April 2, 2015. Accessed
April 4, 2015.
Kerpen, Phil. "Tesla and Its Subsidies, by Phil Kerpen, National Review." National Review Online. January 26, 2015.
Accessed March 15, 2015.
Carlson, Randy. "Tesla's Strategic Advantage." Seeking Alpha. December 4, 2014. Accessed April 1, 2015.
"Tesla Earnings Review: Profits Decline But Tesla Still On Track To Meet Full-Year Targets." Forbes. May 9, 2014.
Accessed March 22, 2015.
Lavrinc, Damon. "Elon Musk Says Tesla Model 3 Will Cost $35,000 Before Incentives." Jalopnik. January 13, 2015.
Accessed April 2, 2015.
"Tesla Timeline." Tesla Motors. March 11, 2014. Accessed April 5, 2015.
Kaiser, Tiffany. "Tesla Motors Still Looking to Win Against Dealerships, But Auto Dealers Have Lobbying Cash." Daily Te.
November 29, 2013. Accessed April 3, 2015.
"State & Federal Incentives." Plug In America. Accessed April 7, 2015.
Lazo, Alejandro. "Tesla Receives Nevada Tax Breaks." WSJ. September 12, 2014. Accessed April 8, 2015.
Walker, Hunter. "696,749 Reasons New Jersey Sided Against Tesla." Business Insider. March 11, 2014. Accessed April 10,
2015.
Damon, Anjeanette Damon. "A Glimpse inside the Tesla Lobbyists' Carson City HQ." Reno Gazette Journal. September 12,
2014. Accessed April 19, 2015.
DeMorro, Christopher. "Multi-Million Dollar Lobbying Kept Tesla Motors Out Of Texas." CleanTechnica. September 18,
2013. Accessed April 13, 2015.
Campbell, Steve. "Number of Texas Millionaire Households Rises." Star-telegram. January 17, 2014. Accessed April 13,
2015.
Parrott, George. "Tesla Supercharger Network Growth Surges Over Last 14 Months." Green Car Reports. March 9, 2015.
Accessed April 13, 2015.
Mokyr, Joel. "Twenty-Five Centuries of Technological Change." Google Books. 1990. Accessed March 4, 2015.
"Engine Efficiency." Wikipedia. Accessed April 19, 2015.
Nykvist, Björn, and Måns Nilsson. "Rapidly Falling Costs of Battery Packs for Electric Vehicles." Nature Climate Change.
March 23, 2015. Accessed April 1, 2015.
Bibliography

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Tesla Consulting Project Report

  • 1. CONSULTING PROJECT Alex Field, Thomas Claes Johnson, Mac McGuire, Parker Powell, Sindy Wang
  • 2. o Tesla History: Key Events o Industry S-Curves: Car & Automobile Manufacturing o Tesla as a Disruptive Technology o Tesla: Sources of Attractiveness o How Do Innovations Diffuse? A Look into Tesla o Issue: Too Expensive o Recommendation: Cut Costs o Tesla’s Efforts in Cost Cutting o Recommendation: Create State Incentive Programs o Issue: Insufficient Infrastructure o Recommendation: Increase Infrastructure o Issue: Straight-to-Consumer Retail Model Blocked by Lobbyists o Recommendation: Increase Spending on Lobbying o Conclusion
  • 3. 2003 2006 2009 2010 2012 20142013 2015 Tesla Motors is incorporated Begins production of the Roadster Model S unveiled $465m loan from Department of Energy Daimler investment subsidiary buys 19.1m shares of convertible preferred stock TSLA IPO launched Panasonic purchases 1.4m shares Toyota purchases 2.9m shares Announced partnership to develop powertrain system with Toyota RAV4 Started building Supercharger Network across America Unveiled designs and plans for Model X ExtremeTech “Best Selling Luxury Car Gigafactory announcement 200th Tesla Charging Station opened (2 months later, 300th opened) Musk announces anyone can use their patent in good faith Consumers report “Best Overall Car” 400th Tesla charging station - 1st solar powered charging station Model 3 announcement - Before incentives: $35k - After incentives: ~$25k Tesla History: Key Events
  • 4. Industry S-Curves Car & Automobile Manufacturing Time EV Hybrid Performance Internal Combustion Fuel Cell
  • 5. Diminishing returns on R&D? Exceeding market needs? New S-curve close to inflection point? Identified market segment of early adopters? Enter market Market research R&D partnership Marker on strategic game board Status Quo Disruptive Technology NO NO NO NO YES YES YES YES
  • 6. • First developed in 1860, the internal combustion engine has long been our most commonly used source of power to move automobiles • At max efficiency, our most modern engine operates at a maximum thermal efficiency of 25-30% • 70% of the thermal energy released by consumed gasoline is wasted “We are currently in a stage at which improvements in internal combustion engines are running into diminishing returns” Tesla: Disruptive Technology Diminishing Returns to R&D
  • 7. • Development of Tesla batteries currently at inflection point • Current Tesla estimates place battery at $30k-40k • Industry-wide cost estimates declined by 14% annually between 2007 and 2014 • $1,000 per kWh to around $300 for market leaders, including Tesla • Battery costs will reach $230 per kWh by 2018 • Estimated further cost reduction if production doubled: 6%-9% per battery • Batteries are a major cost driver for fully electric vehicles • As they cheapen, so will total ownership cost Tesla: Disruptive Technology New S-Curve Close to Inflection Point
  • 8. Tesla: Disruptive Technology New S-Curve Close to Inflection Point
  • 9. Consumer Appeal • Sleek design • Quiet in drive • 0 to 60mph in under 4 seconds • No traditional fuel costs Environmental Appeal • Zero emissions • Sustainable energy source Sources of Attractiveness
  • 10. A Look Into Tesla Relative Advantage Is it better than the product it replaces? • More environmentally friendly, cheaper in the long run • BUT it is too expensive Compatibility Is it consistent with existing value and experiences? • You drive it as you would any other car • BUT charging stations are not widely available Complexity Is it difficult to understand and use? • You drive it as you would any other car • Could carry perception of being technologically complex Trialability Can the product be experimented with on a limited basis? • Test drives can be requested online or through retail stores • VIP test drives Observability Are product usage and impact visible to others? • Highly visible in news, social media • BUT not many people own it in real life
  • 11. Price & Cost per unit Industry Average Competitor Margin Costs Costs Margin Priceavg Costavg $32,000 $28,160 $100,000 50,000 0 Issue: Too Expensive Price/Cost Comparison
  • 12. Cut Costs • Decrease cost per unit of batteries and production process through economies of scale by doubling current production • Estimated 8% decrease • Continue to partner with companies that can utilize lower capital cost to make car more affordable • US Bank does not operate on East Coast, find regional partners
  • 13. Cost Cutting Estimated production costs per battery: - Market Average: $400/kWh - Tesla: $300/kWh “If batteries fall as low as $150/kWh could lead to paradigm shift in vehicle tech” • At current rate, a conservative estimate by 2018 is $230/kWh Gigafactory currently under construction • Instrumental to dramatically reducing cost per unit and increasing supply of tech • Will decrease cost of Tesla battery by more than 30% by 2020 • Will be able to meet estimated world demand in 2020 but must avoid pitfalls of low utilization if demand does not meet expectations Bay Area factory cost < one third of US average cost ($1b) • Focused attempt to lower costs in order to compete with conventional car models 2014 Partnership with US Bank • Decreases leasing cost by 25%
  • 14. • 37/50 states have incentive programs to promote purchase of hybrid or EV cars •In addition to existing Federal Tax exemption of $7,500 •Target remaining 13 states • The Northeast presents a major market for Tesla • Highly educated/environmentally aware market • BUT most of it has no current state incentives • Tesla lobbying headquarters are in Carson City, California due to gigafactory lobbying efforts, but it is no longer a strategically positioned office • The West Coast has adopted technology well • Focus lobbying efforts on NE Create State Incentive Programs
  • 15. • 400 Supercharger stations vs. 168,000 retail fuel locations for internal combustion engines • Supercharger  30 minute charge = 170 miles • Regular charging stations  outdated, 1 hour charge = 30-60 miles Issue: Insufficient Infrastructure US Supercharger Locations
  • 16. Increase Infrastructure Partner with regional utility providers • Existing grid has enough excess capacity to support over 150 million electric cars (75% of all cars driven in USA) Why would utility providers partner with us? • SolarCity (founded by Elon Musk) has ability to underprice current providers by reselling stored energy back into grid • This would allow Tesla/SolarCity to leverage their threat to industry and gain favorable deal • More outlets = more revenue Convenience of charging locations will help in the diffusion of EV technology: • Increased compatibility resulting in higher observability • Increased value of product, stimulating revenues
  • 17. Issue: Dealership PACs Preventing Straight-to-Consumer Retail Model Lobbyists/Tesla Political Contributions 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 New Jersey (2014) Texas (2013) PoliticalContributions($) Millions Lobbyists Tesla
  • 18. • Tesla lost against Car Dealership PAC group in both New Jersey and Texas, preventing their ability to sell directly to customers • Between 2003 and 2012 Car Dealership PACS spent $140m,compared to Tesla’s $500k • Average annual expenditure difference of $15,611,111 vs. $55,555 Loss in NJ stats •2nd Most liquid millionaires as % of population in America •456,949 millionaires •Unable to meet large possible customer base • Inability to retail in both Texas and NJ creates loss of ability to target 700,000 millionaires •0.25% of this group = 17,500 cars •17,500 purchases  15% margin (25% actual)  increase of $262m in NI Issue: Dealership PACs Preventing Straight-to-Consumer Retail Model Implications
  • 19. • Current Dealership PACs are preventing Tesla from selling • Tesla should increase lobbying expenditures to counter Dealership PACs and to gain state acceptance •4x-6x current expenditures •Increasing total to approximately $4m-$6m Increase Spending on Lobbying
  • 20. Issues • Too expensive • Insufficient infrastructure • Dealership PACs are preventing straight-to-consumer retail model Recommendations 1. Cut costs: - Decrease cost per unit - Create state incentive programs with a focus on the Northeast 2. Increase infrastructure: - Partner with regional utility providers 3. Lobby: - Increase lobbying expenditures
  • 21. o PEST: Key Trends o Industry: Car & Automobile Manufacturing o Five Forces Structural Analysis o Industry: Trends & Dynamics o Analysis of Strategic Effectiveness o Key Competitor Analysis o Strategic Positioning of Industry Firms o Sources of Competitive Advantage o Tesla: Key Activities o Tesla’s Strategic Issues
  • 22. Key Trends Car & Automobile Manufacturing P E S T ● Government Regulation: Increased environmental standards for global supply chain, factory emissions, car emissions in CAFE, and general safety standards ● US gov’t has subsidized Tesla R&D: Department of Energy’s Advanced Tech Vehicle Manufacturing Loan Program. $7,500 Federal Tax credit for purchasing car ● Economy coming out of recession and showing strong growth ● Increasing consumer spending power over last few years ● “Stakeholder” not just “shareholder” model becoming popular ● Increasing volatility and destabilization in middle east→ greater foreign oil uncertainty ● Increasing awareness of Global Climate Change and impact of vehicle emissions ● Greater need for energy efficiency in vehicles to “support your mother earth” ● Millennial generation not as car crazy as baby boomers ● Diminishing returns to investment with Internal Combustion Engine ● Tesla battery reaching inflection point on S-Curve ● Decreasing costs per unit for rechargeable car battery ● Ability for current grid to support mass shift to electric vehicles
  • 23. Industry Car & Automobile Manufacturing oThreat of New Entrants: Low oThreat of Substitutes: Medium-Low oPower of Suppliers: Medium-Low oPower of Buyers: Medium-Low oIndustry Rivalry: Medium-High Overall, the car and automobile manufacturing industry is dominated by a handful of large firms. The large firms tend to have cars at numerous price points. Brand recognition is strong and there are low switching costs. Unfavorable
  • 24. MEDIUM-HIGH • GM, BMW, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Tesla • Buyer propensity to switch car brands • Low product differentiation • High exit barriers – car value goes way down after driving it off the lot • Customer loyalty to specific brands • Huge advertising and marketing costs • Non-luxury vehicle cost is major determinant for buyer due to lack of differentiation • 6 firms have 68% of market • Firms compete on price, fuel economy, reliability, styling and utility MEDIUM-LOW • Consumers and dealerships are major buyers • The market (mostly made up of individual consumers) determines consumers’ WTP • Price sensitive buyers • Increasing availability of information • Medium brand loyalty • Buyers cannot backwards integrate • Industry has ability to forward integrate (eg. Tesla) • Buyer concentration much lower than industry MEDIUM-LOW • Willing to compromise prices to form partnerships with automobile firms • Diversity of firms the supplier sells its products to (usually 1 or 2) • Additional factors affecting entry include large capital investment in human resources and equipment to produce automotive parts • Automotive firms can threaten to switch providers • Suppliers unlikely to drive average industry profits down unless they all agree to increase prices/switching costs RIVALRY POWER OF BUYERS POWER OF SUPPLIERS LOW • Very capital intensive industry • Large investments required to achieve sustainable economies of scale • Without economies of scale, extremely difficult to achieve profitability • Cost of distribution is high, must establish dealership network and licensing • Threat of retaliation from large firms if challenge their market segment • High regulatory costs associated with manufacturing, inputs and outputs • Cost of compliance with environmental benchmarks can be expensive for small firms THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS MEDIUM-LOW • Developed public transportation in urban areas • Threat is lower in rural where subways and bus systems are not prevalent • Low switching costs in urban areas, similar value, lower costs to participate • Rural areas have few substitutes, high switching costs and dissimilar value proposition • Public transportation tends to be irregular and stiff with locations served • Cannot access reasonable substitutes outside of developed urban areas with public transit THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES
  • 25. Industry Car & Automobile Manufacturing: Trends & Dynamics Trend 1: Tech Development o Cheaper development of Tesla battery will cause fundamental shift in industry o Less demand for internal combustion, consumer will place greater value in the cheaper (per mile) alternative o Firms will need to invest heavily in R&D or license tech from Tesla Impact on 5 Forces Trend 2: Environment o Consumer preferences shifting towards “green” option will further decrease demand for pure internal combustion powered vehicles o Increased desire for hybrid/electric vehicles o Need for traditional companies to change public image Total Impact on Industry Π BTE Rivalry Substitutes Rivalry Supplier Power
  • 26. Analysis of Financial Performance Economic Average Industry Influence Strategy Influence -7.1% Company’s Profitability 3.1% Industry Profitability 4% -0.9% Car & Automobile Manufacturing Industry o Firms in this industry are engaged in the manufacturing of cars in the United States. Their finished products are hybrid, fully electric, and internal combustion engine powered cars. Industry Firms o General Motors, Toyota, Ford, Fiat Chrysler Industry: Good or Bad? o Tesla is in a highly cyclical industry. The ROA for this industry is less than the economic average, however this is to be expected because the industry is very asset intensive. This industry has a negative influence on profits. Outperforming or underperforming the industry average? o Tesla is underperforming the industry. According to this graphic, our strategic influence is -10%. The combination of negative strategy and industry influence places us at 11.1%, below economic average ROA. Analysis of Strategic Effectiveness -10%
  • 27. Key Competitor Analysis -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Tesla GM Toyota Ford Fiat ReturnonAssets(%)3yravg. * We compared profitability using ROA because the manufacturing of vehicles is asset intensive, and we believe this best reflects firm efficiency.
  • 28. Cost Leadership Differentiation Broad Narrow Scope Source of Strategic Advantage IndustryASP Strategic Positioning of Industry Firms Toyota VW BMW M. Benz GM Ford Fiat Chrysle r
  • 29. Consumer Appeal • Sleek design • Quiet in drive • 0 to 60mph in under 4 seconds • No traditional fuel costs Environmental Appeal • Zero emissions • Sustainable energy source Strong Partnership Value • Mercedes, Toyota, Panasonic Sources of Competitive Advantage
  • 30. Effective procurement of components Premium distribution Operational Effectiveness No traditional marketing expenditures After-sale support In-house manufacturing of most important components Short-term agreements with numerous suppliers Production based on demand Highly innovated, automated manufacturing process Network of own retailers in high foot traffic locations Timely delivery of components Easily reprogrammed multi-function robots Educating customers about benefits of electric cars Online reservations Showrooms Celebrity Tesla owners (free advertising) Web-based short films Own service centers in Europe, Asia, North America Super-fast free charging station network 50,000 mile warranty policyGood relationship with strategic suppliers YouTube ad campaigns Cost reduction All free money invested in R&D Constant innovation New gigafactory Tesla: Key Themes & Activities
  • 31. Tesla’s Strategic Issues o Key issues facing industry: Low interest rates and economic growth will continue to boost this industry, a raise in rates or economic slowdown will threaten revenue growth o Key issues for Tesla ▪ Lack of charging stations makes long distance travel an inconvenience ▪ High price of product, only current offering is luxury vehicle, limits market based on WTP o What more information do you need to fully understand these issues? ▪ Cost to produce a Tesla battery ▪ Can Tesla utilize economies of scale to further drive down product cost o What are the firm’s prospects for long-term competitive advantage? ▪ Decreased product price and increased concentration of charging stations will help make EV close to standard car convenience ▪ Increasing environmental awareness will help create a sustainable advantage over standard car manufacturers o What kind of recommendations can you make to the firm to help it become more profitable in the future? ▪ Infrastructure development to support ease of charging ▪ Lobby states to incentivize alternative energy and electric vehicles
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