1. Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
Recommendations and opinions in this material are based solely on technical analysis. You can find
fundamentally based recommendations in our FI & FX CEE Insights.
Current recommendations:
1) Gold short, open @ 1426.2, target @ 1320.0, stop-loss @ 1452. Lock in levels 1385/1405, 1355/1375. MACD
sell signal. Time horizon: 2 weeks.
2) Copper long, open @ 417.8, target @ 450.0, stop-loss @ 408. Lock in levels 430/425. Speculation on
rebound from 200-day moving average. Time horizon: 1 week
Instrument Direction Open Opened Target Stop-loss P/L (%) Comment
Brent short 117.16 7.3.2011 103 120.5 +3.19% 1 week remaining
Gold short 1426.2 14.3.2011 1320 1452 2 weeks remaining
Copper long 417.8 14.3.2011 450.0 408.0 1 week remaining
Summary
EUR/CZK
Short consolidation and then return to and pressure on 24.20 level is likely.
EUR/PLN
Indicators currently prefer further advance towards 4.07 level, but overbought RSI, ROC20 and MACD hint that it will
only be slow.
EUR/HUF
Continuation of consolidation is most likely technical scenario.
EUR/RON
Strongly oversold conditions suggest that correction is likely.
EUR/TRY
Upward momentum is weakening. Return to pressure on 2.188 is likely.
EUR/USD
Momentum suggests further upward pressure, but close to overbought conditions and closeness of 1.40 psychological
level may support correction and/or consolidation.
EUR/JPY
Consolidation is most likely - momentum points upwards, but overbought conditions should hamper growth.
EUR/CHF
Chance for upward pressure seems to be somewhat stronger, but continuing consolidation is still most likely scenario
for one-week horizon.
Gold
MACD sell signal suggests that deeper correction is possible.
Analyst: Luboš Mokráš
lmokras@csas.cz
Erste Group – Technician
Page 1

2. Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/CZK
 Main trend: decline  Koruna rebounded from 24.20 level to 20-day moving
 Short-term trend: growth average/24.35 level.
 MACD is in sideways trend slightly below zero level.
R6: 25.20 consolidation
 ROC20 is in slow declining trend and is testing zero
R5: 25.00 psychological, bottom level. ROC60 is in declining trend below zero level. It is
R4: 24.80 consolidation oversold.
R3: 24.65 bottoms  RSI is in sideways trend close to neutral level.
R2: 24.50 bottom  Short consolidation and then return to and pressure on
R1: 24.35 bottom of consolidation range 24.20 level is likely.
S1: 24.20 consolidation
S2: 24.00 psychological
Daily QEURCZK= 30.7.2010 - 17.3.2011 (GMT)
Price
SMA; QEURCZK=;; 14.3.2011; 24,3405; EMA; QEURCZK=;; 14.3.2011; 24,4104; Cndl; QEURCZK=;; CZK
25,45
14.3.2011; 24,2720; 24,3400; 24,2240; 24,3120; EMA; QEURCZK=;; 14.3.2011; 24,5716
25,4
25,3
25,2 25,2
25,1
25 25
24,9
24,8 24,8
24,7
24,65
24,6
24,5 24,5
24,4
24,3
24,2 24,2
24,1
24,0008
24
.1234
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Daily QEURCZK= 6.8.2010 - 15.3.2011 (GMT)
MACDF; QEURCZK=; Value
14.3.2011; -0,0018 CZK
MACD; QEURCZK=;
14.3.2011; -0,0162; -0,0144
0
-0,1
-0,2
.1234
ROC; QEURCZK=; Value
14.3.2011; -3,727 CZK
ROC; QEURCZK=;
14.3.2011; 0,099
EMA; ROC(QEURCZK=);
14.3.2011; -2,786
0
-2
-4
.123
RSI; QEURCZK=; Value
14.3.2011; 49,683 CZK
MARSI; QEURCZK=;
14.3.2011; 49,368 80
60
40
20
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Erste Group – Technician
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3. Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/PLN
 Main trend: decline  Zloty rose above 4.0 psychological level.
 Short-term trend: growth  MACD is in rising trend above zero level. It is
overbought.
R3: 4.19 top
 ROC20 is in volatile rising trend above zero level.
R2: 4.15 top, consolidation ROC60 is in rising trend above zero level.
R1: 4.07 bottoms, Fibonacci level  RSI is in slowing rising trend below overbought level.
S1: 3.973 bottom, consolidation  Indicators currently prefer further advance towards
S2: 3.93 tops 4.07 level, but overbought RSI, ROC20 and MACD hint that it
S3: 3.90 bottoms will only be slow.
S4: 3.863 bottom, bottom of consolidation, Fibonacci level
S5: 3.83 top, top of consolidation
Daily QEURPLN= 29.7.2010 - 16.3.2011 (GMT)
Price
Cndl; QEURPLN=; PLN
14.3.2011; 4,0000; 4,0290; 3,9960; 4,0238
3MA; Cndl(QEURPLN=);
14.3.2011; 3,9643; 3,9432; 3,9680 4,11
4,08
50,0% 4,0682
4,05
4,02
3,99
3,9732
3,96
3,93
3,9
61,8% 3,863
3,87
3,84
.1234
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Daily QEURPLN= 5.8.2010 - 14.3.2011 (GMT)
MACDF; QEURPLN=; Value
PLN
14.3.2011; 0,0039
MACD; QEURPLN=; 0,01
14.3.2011; 0,0228; 0,0189
0
-0,01
-0,02
.1234
ROC; QEURPLN=; Value
14.3.2011; 0,645 PLN
ROC; QEURPLN=; 2
14.3.2011; 1,984
EMA; ROC(QEURPLN=); 0
14.3.2011; -0,532
-2
-4
.123
RSI; QEURPLN=; Value
PLN
14.3.2011; 64,955
MARSI; QEURPLN=; 80
14.3.2011; 60,876
60
40
20
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4. Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/HUF
 Main trend: consolidation  Forint is in consolidation in range defined by 20-day
 Short-term trend: consolidation and 60-day moving averages.
 MACD is in sideways trend close to zero level.
R4: 290 tops
 ROC20 is in sideways trend slightly above zero
R3: 283 top level. ROC60 is in volatile sideways trend below zero level.
R2: 279 tops  RSI is in volatile sideways trend close to neutral
R1: 273 top, Fibonacci level level.
S1: 270 bottom  Continuation of consolidation is most likely technical
S2: 266 tops scenario.
S3: 264.5 bottoms
S4: 261.85 Fibonacci level, bottom level of consolidation range
Daily QEURHUF= 29.7.2010 - 16.3.2011 (GMT)
Price
SMA; QEURHUF=; HUF
14.3.2011; 271,81 288
EMA; QEURHUF=;
14.3.2011; 273,11
Cndl; QEURHUF=; 286
14.3.2011; 271,81; 273,13; 270,98; 272,30
EMA; QEURHUF=;
14.3.2011; 274,44 284
38,2% 282,95
282
280
279,02
278
276
274
50,0% 272,4
272
270
268
.12
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Daily QEURHUF= 5.8.2010 - 14.3.2011 (GMT)
MACDF; QEURHUF=; Value
HUF
14.3.2011; 0,16
MACD; QEURHUF=;
14.3.2011; -0,02; -0,17 0
-1
-2
.12
ROC; QEURHUF=; Value
14.3.2011; -1,579 HUF
ROC; QEURHUF=;
14.3.2011; 0,328
EMA; ROC(QEURHUF=); 0
14.3.2011; -1,537
-4
.123
RSI; QEURHUF=; Value
HUF
14.3.2011; 50,724
MARSI; QEURHUF=; 80
14.3.2011; 50,571
60
40
20
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Erste Group – Technician
Page 4

5. Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/RON
 Main trend: consolidation  Leu broke below 4.19 level.
 Short-term trend: decline  MACD is in declining trend below zero level. It is strongly
oversold.
R4: 4.385 top
 Both ROCs are in declining trend and are below zero
R3: 4.2934 consolidation, top level. Both are oversold.
R2: 4.23 Fibonacci level, bottom of consolidation  RSI is oversold.
R1: 4.19 bottoms  Strongly oversold conditions suggest that correction is
S1: 4.11 bottoms, Fibonacci level likely.
S2: 4.07 Fibonacci projection, bottoms
S3: 3.97 Fibonacci projection level, top
S4: 3.80 top
Daily QEURRON= 29.7.2010 - 16.3.2011 (GMT)
Price
SMA; QEURRON=; RON
14.3.2011; 4,2126
EMA; QEURRON=; 4,31
14.3.2011; 4,2384
Cndl; QEURRON=; 4,3
14.3.2011; 4,1830; 4,1874; 4,1780; 4,1823
0,0% 4,2954
EMA; QEURRON=; 4,29
14.3.2011; 4,2486
4,28
4,27
4,26
4,25
4,24
4,23
4,22
4,21
4,2
4,1911
4,19
.1234
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Daily QEURRON= 29.7.2010 - 16.3.2011 (GMT)
MACD; QEURRON=; Value
14.3.2011; -0,0174; -0,0156 RON
MACDF; QEURRON=; 0,005
14.3.2011; -0,0018
0
-0,005
-0,01
-0,015
.1234
ROC; QEURRON=; Value
14.3.2011; -1,477 RON
ROC; QEURRON=;
14.3.2011; -2,510 1
EMA; ROC(QEURRON=);
14.3.2011; -1,940 0
-1
-2
.123
RSI; QEURRON=; Value
14.3.2011; 27,944 RON
MARSI; QEURRON=; 80
14.3.2011; 30,948
60
40
20
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6. Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/TRY
 Main trend: growth  Lira returned to 2.188 level.
 Short-term trend: growth (?)  MACD turned downwards and is above zero
level.
R1: 2.3934 top
 ROC20 is in sideways trend above zero level.
S1: 2.188 top of consolidation range ROC60 turned downwards and is overbought.
S2: 2.1414 bottom of consolidation  RSI declined to neutral level.
S3: 2.115 Fibonacci level, consolidations  Upward momentum is weakening. Return to
S4: 2.075 bottoms pressure on 2.188 is likely.
S5: 2.05 top
S6: 2.04 Fibonacci level, bottoms
S7: 2.00 bottom, psychological
Daily QEURTRY= 29.7.2010 - 16.3.2011 (GMT)
Price
SMA; QEURTRY=; TRY
14.3.2011; 2,1949
EMA; QEURTRY=;
14.3.2011; 2,1375
Cndl; QEURTRY=;
2,2
2,1836
14.3.2011; 2,2097; 2,2113; 2,1953; 2,2003
EMA; QEURTRY=;
14.3.2011; 2,0841 2,16
2,1414
2,12
2,08
2,051
2,04
2
1,96
1,92
1,8988 .1234
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VIII 10 IX 10 X 10 XI 10 XII 10 I 11 II 11 III 11
Daily QEURTRY= 5.8.2010 - 14.3.2011 (GMT)
MACDF; QEURTRY=; Value
14.3.2011; -0,0051 TRY
MACD; QEURTRY=;
14.3.2011; 0,0166; 0,0217 0,03
0,02
0,01
0
.1234
ROC; QEURTRY=; Value
14.3.2011; 7,622 TRY
ROC; QEURTRY=;
14.3.2011; 2,491
EMA; ROC(QEURTRY=);
14.3.2011; 9,940 5
0
.123
RSI; QEURTRY=; Value
14.3.2011; 55,201 TRY
MARSI; QEURTRY=;
14.3.2011; 62,618 80
60
40
20
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7. Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/USD
 Main trend: consolidation  Dollar rebounded from 1.38 level after correction.
 Short-term trend: growth  MACD is in slow rising trend above zero level.
 Both ROCs are in rising trend above zero level.
R1: 1.42 Fibonacci level
 RSI rebounded from overbought level.
S1: 1.38 Fibonacci level, top  Momentum suggests further upward pressure, but
S2: 1.3488 Fibonacci level close to overbought conditions and closeness of 1.40
S3: 1.327 local low psychological level may support correction and/or
S4: 1.300 psychological consolidation.
S5: 1.290 local low
S6: 1.250 important local low
S7: 1.217 bottom of consolidation
Daily QEUR= 5.8.2010 - 23.3.2011 (GMT)
Price
SMA; QEUR=; USD
14.3.2011; 1,3789
38,2% 1,4119 QEUR=;
EMA;
14.3.2011; 1,3629
1,41
Cndl; QEUR=; 1,4
14.3.2011; 1,3961; 1,3970; 1,3902; 1,3930
EMA; QEUR=; 1,39
14.3.2011; 1,3506
50,0% 1,3804
1,38
1,37
1,36
61,8% 1,3488 1,35
1,34
1,33
1,32
1,31
1,3
1,29
1,28
1,27
.1234
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Daily QEUR= 12.8.2010 - 21.3.2011 (GMT)
MACDF; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential; Value
USD
14.3.2011; -0,0002
MACD; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential;
14.3.2011; 0,0091; 0,0092
0,01
0
-0,01
.1234
ROC; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 60; Value
14.3.2011; 6,175 USD
ROC; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 20;
14.3.2011; 3,300
5
EMA; ROC(QEUR=); 20;
14.3.2011; 3,795 0
-5
.123
RSI; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing; Value
USD
14.3.2011; 60,427
MARSI; QEUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing; 14; 80
14.3.2011; 61,869
60
40
20
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Page 7

8. Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/JPY
 Main trend: consolidation  Yen is testing 113.5 level.
 Short-term trend: decline  MACD is in sideways trend above zero level.
R6: 129.0 tops of consolidations, Fibonacci level  ROC20 is in sideways trend above zero level. ROC60
R5: 126.0 bottom level of consolidation, tops, Fibonacci level is in rising trend above zero level.
 RSI is in sideways trend above neutral level.
R4: 123.0 Fibonacci level
 Consolidation is most likely; momentum points
R3: 120.74 Fibonacci level, bottom upwards, but overbought conditions should hamper growth.
R1: 117.0 bottoms
S1: 113.5 bottom
S2: 110 psychological
S3: 108.7 bottom
S4: 106.0 bottom
Daily QEURJPY= 5.8.2010 - 23.3.2011 (GMT)
Price
SMA; QEURJPY=; JPY
14.3.2011; 113,78
EMA; QEURJPY=; 116
14.3.2011; 112,57 115,48
Cndl; QEURJPY=;
14.3.2011; 114,22; 114,82; 112,58; 114,25
115
EMA; QEURJPY=;
14.3.2011; 112,41 114
100,0% 113,54
113
112
111
110
108,72
109
108
107
106
.12
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Daily QEURJPY= 12.8.2010 - 21.3.2011 (GMT)
MACDF; QEURJPY=; Bid(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential; Value
JPY
14.3.2011; -0,03
MACD; QEURJPY=; Bid(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential;
14.3.2011; 0,62; 0,65 0,5
0
-0,5
-1
.12
ROC; QEURJPY=; Bid(Last); 60; Value
14.3.2011; 3,959 JPY
ROC; QEURJPY=; Bid(Last); 20; 5
14.3.2011; 1,728
EMA; ROC(QEURJPY=); 20;
14.3.2011; 2,332 0
-5
.123
RSI; QEURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing; Value
JPY
14.3.2011; 56,457
MARSI; QEURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing; 14; 80
14.3.2011; 58,528
60
40
20
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9. Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/CHF
 Main trend: decline  EURCHF is in consolidation close to 20- and 60-day
 Short-term trend: consolidation moving averages.
 MACD is in sideways trend close to zero level.
R5: 1.4257 bottom
 ROC20 is in declining trend below zero level. ROC60 is
R4: 1.4000 psychological in rising trend above zero level.
R3: 1.3758 low  RSI is in sideways trend close to neutral level.
R2: 1.3180 low  Chance for upward pressure seems to be somewhat
R1: 1.3000 psychological, low stronger, but continuing consolidation is still most likely scenario
S1: 1.2800 low for one-week horizon.
S2: 1.2460 low
Daily QEURCHF= 5.8.2010 - 23.3.2011 (GMT)
Price
SMA; QEURCHF=; CHF
14.3.2011; 1,2902
EMA; QEURCHF=; 1,39
14.3.2011; 1,2936 1,38
Cndl; QEURCHF=;
1,3758
14.3.2011; 1,2952; 1,2966; 1,2905; 1,2949 1,37
EMA; QEURCHF=;
14.3.2011; 1,3063 1,36
1,35
1,34
1,33
1,3184 1,32
1,31
1,3
1,29
1,28 1,28
1,27
1,26
1,25
.1234
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Daily QEURCHF= 12.8.2010 - 21.3.2011 (GMT)
MACDF; QEURCHF=; Bid(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential; Value
CHF
14.3.2011; 0,0004
MACD; QEURCHF=; Bid(Last); 12; 26; 9; Exponential;
14.3.2011; 0,0001; -0,0003
0
-0,01
.1234
ROC; QEURCHF=; Bid(Last); 60; Value
14.3.2011; 2,234 CHF
ROC; QEURCHF=; Bid(Last); 20;
14.3.2011; -1,009 0
EMA; ROC(QEURCHF=); 20;
14.3.2011; -0,690
-4
.123
RSI; QEURCHF=; Bid(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing; Value
CHF
14.3.2011; 52,191
MARSI; QEURCHF=; Bid(Last); 14; Wilder Smoothing; 14; 80
14.3.2011; 47,657
60
40
20
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