![SurvivalMD
How to survive when there is no doctor
Recent work on crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war, and the spread of
disease from the perspective of complexity science. We have pointed out
that many counter-intuitive system behaviors are due to the existence of
non-linear amplification, feedback, and cascade effects. Many of the
surprising effects discussed here result from correlations between
dynamical processes that invalidate the common representative agent or
mean-field approach, which is based on the assumption of well-mixed
interactions. This has important policy implications, namely that
conventional approaches to address the above problems can potentially
deteriorate the situation, while their mitigation requires a different
perspective and a new approach. Therefore, old problems can be addressed
more successfully when applying a complex systems perspective.
How to survive when there is no doctor
We have pointed out that the classical rational choice approach suggests
that problems such as crime or terrorism should be effectively suppressed
by strong enough deterrence. In contrast to these expectations, however,
one finds crime cycles, escalation and recurrence of conflicts. The reason for
this is that the equilibrium or representative agent approaches underlying
classical rational choice analysis are not always applicable [15]. The social
systems investigated here are characterized by systemic instabilities. Under
such conditions, the desirable system state is left sooner or later, often
giving rise to cascade effects such as contagious spatio-temporal
spreading. As a result, the system is eventually driven out of control,
despite everybody’s best intentions and efforts to avoid this.
Today’s prevalent focus on individuals, their behavior and how to control it,
ignores the importance of systemic effects. For example, recent reports
have cast serious doubt on the effectiveness of deterrence strategies.Calls
for more or longer prison sentences and extended surveillance stress that
current punitive approaches are not working well. Despite the best
intentions, “more of the same” is very unlikely to have positive effects if we
do not understand why such measures have been of limited effect in the
past. One of the key problems in this regard appears to be the individual-](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/survivalmd-201118172534/85/Survival-md-1-320.jpg)
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- 1. SurvivalMD How to survive when there is no doctor Recent work on crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war, and the spread of disease from the perspective of complexity science. We have pointed out that many counter-intuitive system behaviors are due to the existence of non-linear amplification, feedback, and cascade effects. Many of the surprising effects discussed here result from correlations between dynamical processes that invalidate the common representative agent or mean-field approach, which is based on the assumption of well-mixed interactions. This has important policy implications, namely that conventional approaches to address the above problems can potentially deteriorate the situation, while their mitigation requires a different perspective and a new approach. Therefore, old problems can be addressed more successfully when applying a complex systems perspective. How to survive when there is no doctor We have pointed out that the classical rational choice approach suggests that problems such as crime or terrorism should be effectively suppressed by strong enough deterrence. In contrast to these expectations, however, one finds crime cycles, escalation and recurrence of conflicts. The reason for this is that the equilibrium or representative agent approaches underlying classical rational choice analysis are not always applicable [15]. The social systems investigated here are characterized by systemic instabilities. Under such conditions, the desirable system state is left sooner or later, often giving rise to cascade effects such as contagious spatio-temporal spreading. As a result, the system is eventually driven out of control, despite everybody’s best intentions and efforts to avoid this. Today’s prevalent focus on individuals, their behavior and how to control it, ignores the importance of systemic effects. For example, recent reports have cast serious doubt on the effectiveness of deterrence strategies.Calls for more or longer prison sentences and extended surveillance stress that current punitive approaches are not working well. Despite the best intentions, “more of the same” is very unlikely to have positive effects if we do not understand why such measures have been of limited effect in the past. One of the key problems in this regard appears to be the individual-
- 2. centric approach, which often systematically neglects the collective dynamics, i.e. the complex systemic interplay of individual actions and the broader social context they take place in as well as the socio-economic conditions of an individual. More successful approaches for averting system dynamics that endanger human lives need to move from an individual-centered to a systemic perspective. For example, harmful cascade effects resulting from systemic instabilities and related loss of control may be countered by suitable system designs with engineered breaking points or adaptive decoupling strategies such as separation or immunization. How to survive when there is no doctor