1. Assessing The Effects of Systems Thinking On Decision Making
Abstract
The greatest challenges humans currently face – climate change, poverty, epidemics,
financial meltdowns – are the result of humans acting within enormously complex systems
without fully understanding how these systems work. Many have argued that people will make
better decisions under these circumstances if they can engage in systems thinking. Systems
thinking is a way of conceptualizing reality and making decisions that emphasizes enhanced
understanding of relationships and interdependencies. This research will help to identify simple
and scalable methods of increasing systems thinking and enhancing everyday decision making
that do not require extensive training or cognitive resources. In particular, this research examines
whether metaphors and conceptual models that encourage people to think about the broader
system can shift the way people think about a problem, and improve their ability to identify
effective solutions. For example, do diagrams and maps that help people to situate themselves
and visualize their relationships to ecological, social or economic systems help them make
choices that benefit the community around them? Do some metaphors (describing a national
park as the “backbone” of the park system, as opposed to a “pearl”) help people see the
relationships between that park and the larger ecological system? The most important facet of
this research from a practical point of view is the possibility that relatively simple metaphors and
conceptual models have the potential to improve decision making among large groups of people
every day.
In eight studies, this research project will identify metaphors and conceptual models that
promote systems thinking, and test the contention that systems thinking improves decision
making. Two experiments will identify systemic metaphors and test their psychological effects,
as well as their effects on risk assessment and decision making. Two experiments will test
whether valuing the system in question is a prerequisite for systems thinking to result in better
decision making. Four field studies will test the impact of systemic metaphors on conservation
behavior (electricity use) and political action (involvement in social media-based campaigns
orchestrated by the non-profit communications firm Resource Media). These studies are
important because none of the existing work on systems thinking is grounded in psychological
processes, nor has it fully evaluated the effects of systems thinking on decision making and
behavior. The research program proposed here will use psychological theory, empirical
measurement, and experimental techniques to address these large gaps in knowledge.