Improving statistical models to account for issues in data availability and quality for hydrological settings.

1. Improving statistical models for flood
risk assessment
Ross Towe 1,2 Jonathan Tawn 1 Rob Lamb 1,3
Chris Sherlock 1 Ye Liu 4
1Dept. Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
2JBA Trust, Broughton Hall, Skipton, UK
3Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, UK
4JBA Risk Management, Broughton Hall, Skipton, UK
October 2016

2. Motivation
Credit: BBC NEWS
Credit: Barry Hankin, JBA Consulting

3. KTP Project
• Two year project between JBA Consulting, JBA Trust and
Lancaster University
• Aim of the project is to improve the efficiency and applicability
of statistical models for flood risk assessment
• Incorporate rainfall information into the existing models for
flood risk assessment
• Challenges relate to data availability and quality

4. Motivation
What is the probability of multiple locations observing a 1 in
100 year flood event?
What is the probability that a location will simultaneously
experience an extreme rainfall and river flow event?

5. Motivation
What is the probability of multiple locations observing a 1 in
100 year flood event?
What is the probability that a location will simultaneously
experience an extreme rainfall and river flow event?
• F = (F1, . . . , Fd ) are observations
of river flow
• X = (X1, . . . , Xn) are observations
of rainfall
• We can model the joint dependence
between river flow and rainfall

6. Motivation
Can fit a statistical model to the river flow gauges to provide
us with predictions of plausible future flood events
Need predictions of the future flood events at ungauged locations
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52.0
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−4 −3 −2
Longitude
Latitude
50
100
150
ReturnPeriod

7. Motivation
Can fit a statistical model to the river flow gauges to provide
us with predictions of plausible future flood events
Need predictions of the future flood events at ungauged locations
Existing statistical method
interpolates through using
river flow information
Limitations:
• Missing data
• Lack of nearby gauges
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52.0
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−4 −3 −2
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Latitude
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150
ReturnPeriod

8. Data

9. Data comparison
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qqqqqq
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q
qq
q
q

10. Data comparison
q qqq
q q
qqq qq
qq
q
q qqq qq q q
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q
q
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qqqqqqqqqqqqq qq q qq
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q qqqqqqqqqqqq qqq q q
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qq qqq
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qqqqqqqqqqq
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11. Data comparison
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12. Modelling Strategy
Chosen model:
• Adopt the conditional extreme
value model of Heffernan and
Tawn (2004)
• Examples of applications to
flood risk management include
Keef et al. (2009), Lamb et al.
(2010) and Keef et al. (2013)
• Capable of handling high
dimensional data sets −5 0 5 10
−50510
Y1
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