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Fundamental Analysis
The lowest annual profit that SBI has earned in the last 5 years has been around Rs.10000 – 11000
crores in March 2011. If we consider that SBI grows at 9% compounded from this low base for the
next 10 years and discount it at 7% to get present value of the profits we get a valuation of around Rs.
110000 crores for SBI.
The highest quarterly profit that SBI has earned in the last 5 quarters has been around Rs.5000
crores in Sep 2014 which translates into annual profits of around Rs.20000 crores. If we consider that
SBI grows at 9% compounded from this high base for the next 10 years and discount it at 7% to get
present value of the profits we get a valuation of around Rs.220000 crores for SBI.
The bank is currently available at a market capitalisation of Rs.160000 crores.
Comparison with Peers
SBI’s closest competitor in the public sector banking space is Bank of Baroda which is currently
available at a higher P/E but a lower P/B as shown below.
SBI BOB
P/E 8.94 15.53
P/B 1.01 0.82
Comparison with Sector
SBI is available at a discount to the industry P/E of about 9.76. Given below is the historical
performance of SBI against the CNX PSU BANK since 2000 which it has outperformed by a huge
margin.
Comparison with Index
SBI is available at a discount to the index P/E of about 18.95. Given below is the historical
performance of SBI against the SENSEX since 2000 which it has outperformed by a huge margin.
Technical Analysis
Technically SBI is trading below the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages as shown below. It is also
hitting 52 week lows for the past 3 days.
Recommendation
If you are a long term investor (time horizon of a year or more) now is a good time to buy.
If you are a medium term investor (time horizon of more than 3 months but less than a year) you
should wait for prices to stop falling and stabilising above at least one of the moving averages before
buying.
If you are a trader (time horizon up to 3 months) you can initiate a buy as the RSI is near 30 which
indicates an oversold position and book profits near the 30 day moving average or when RSI reaches
near 70.

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State Bank of India

  • 1. Fundamental Analysis The lowest annual profit that SBI has earned in the last 5 years has been around Rs.10000 – 11000 crores in March 2011. If we consider that SBI grows at 9% compounded from this low base for the next 10 years and discount it at 7% to get present value of the profits we get a valuation of around Rs. 110000 crores for SBI. The highest quarterly profit that SBI has earned in the last 5 quarters has been around Rs.5000 crores in Sep 2014 which translates into annual profits of around Rs.20000 crores. If we consider that SBI grows at 9% compounded from this high base for the next 10 years and discount it at 7% to get present value of the profits we get a valuation of around Rs.220000 crores for SBI. The bank is currently available at a market capitalisation of Rs.160000 crores. Comparison with Peers SBI’s closest competitor in the public sector banking space is Bank of Baroda which is currently available at a higher P/E but a lower P/B as shown below. SBI BOB P/E 8.94 15.53 P/B 1.01 0.82 Comparison with Sector SBI is available at a discount to the industry P/E of about 9.76. Given below is the historical performance of SBI against the CNX PSU BANK since 2000 which it has outperformed by a huge margin.
  • 2. Comparison with Index SBI is available at a discount to the index P/E of about 18.95. Given below is the historical performance of SBI against the SENSEX since 2000 which it has outperformed by a huge margin. Technical Analysis Technically SBI is trading below the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages as shown below. It is also hitting 52 week lows for the past 3 days.
  • 3. Recommendation If you are a long term investor (time horizon of a year or more) now is a good time to buy. If you are a medium term investor (time horizon of more than 3 months but less than a year) you should wait for prices to stop falling and stabilising above at least one of the moving averages before buying. If you are a trader (time horizon up to 3 months) you can initiate a buy as the RSI is near 30 which indicates an oversold position and book profits near the 30 day moving average or when RSI reaches near 70.