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年齢
重症化しやすさ
50
①未接種重症化率平均(𝑡0)
ワクチン未接種
ワクチン接種
𝑡0 …ワクチン全員未接種
𝑡0.5 …ワクチン普及中
𝑡1 …ワクチン全員接種後
年齢
重症化しやすさ
50
ワクチン未接種
ワクチン接種
②ワクチン接種者重症化率平均(𝑡1)
ワクチンの効果は①と②
の差で計測できる
①未接種重症化率平均(𝑡0)
𝑡0 …ワクチン全員未接種
𝑡0.5 …ワクチン普及中
𝑡1 …ワクチン全員接種後
年齢
重症化しやすさ
50
ワクチン未接種
ワクチン接種
基礎疾患のある方や年齢が高い方
など重症化しやすい人ほどワクチン
接種が先に行われた。
①’ワクチン未接種重症化率平均(𝑡0.5)
𝑡0 …ワクチン全員未接種
𝑡0.5 …ワクチン普及中
𝑡1 …ワクチン全員接種後
手元にある①’と②’の差を
そのままワクチンの効果と
思ってよいか
②’ワクチン接種重症化率平均(𝑡0.5)
年齢
重症化しやすさ
50
ワクチン未接種
ワクチン接種
基礎疾患のある方や年齢が高い方
など重症化しやすい人ほどワクチン
接種が先に行われた。
(①’-②’)< (① - ②)のため
ワクチンの効果は過少推定
となる
①’ワクチン未接種重症化率平均(𝑡0.5)
②’ワクチン接種重症化率平均(𝑡0.5)
①未接種重症化率平均(𝑡0)
②ワクチン接種者重症化率平均(𝑡1)
𝑡0 …ワクチン全員未接種
𝑡0.5 …ワクチン普及中
𝑡1 …ワクチン全員接種後
年齢
重症化しやすさ
50
ワクチン未接種
ワクチン接種
基礎疾患のある方や年齢が高い方
など重症化しやすい人ほどワクチン
接種が先に行われた。
年齢で区切って推定すれば
①①’間と②②’間のバイアスは
小さくできる。
①’ワクチン未接種重症化率平均(𝑡0.5,<50)
②’ワクチン接種重症化率平均(𝑡0.5,<50)
①未接種重症化率平均(𝑡0,<50)
②ワクチン接種者重症化率平均(𝑡1,<50)
𝑡0 …ワクチン全員未接種
𝑡0.5 …ワクチン普及中
𝑡1 …ワクチン全員接種後

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