Class 5: Overview
•The Internet and the Payment Riddle
• Money
• Satoshi Nakamoto’s Innovation
• Crypto Markets
• Blockchain Technology Use Cases
• Challenges & Assessing Viability of Use Cases
• Central Bank Digital Currencies
• Ground Truths
2
41.
Internet and thePayments Riddle
• How to Move Value on the Internet
• Securely • As a Packet of Data – Peer to Peer
• Efficiently • While Prohibiting Double Spending
6
Money
Plato:
• Money isa ‘symbol’ devised for the purpose of exchanges
• Opposed using gold or silver for money
Aristotle:
• Solves the ‘problem of commensurability’
• ‘Money is a guarantee that we may have what we want in the future. Though we
need nothing at the moment it insures the possibility of satisfying a new desire
when it arises.’
• Four absolutes to have ‘Universal Value’:
• Durable, Portable, Divisible & Intrinsic Value
Modern Characteristics:
• Durable, Portable, Divisible, Uniform, Acceptable, & Stable
Image is in the public domain.
9
Money
Image by epSos.deon Wikimedia. CC BY
Image is in e p b i domain.
Image is in e p b i domain.
Cowrie Shells Jiaozi Promissory Note Fiat Paper Money
Nigeria Song Dynasty China
Image by ade o on Wikimedia. i ense CC . Image is in e p b i domain.
Image by ma k s on i k . CC BY
Silver Dekadrachm Private Bank Notes Alipay Mobile Wallet
Greece United States China
11
47.
Fiat Currency
• Representedby:
• Central Bank Notes Image by epSos.de on Wikimedia. CC BY
• Central Bank Reserves &
• Commercial Bank Deposits
• Relies upon System of Ledgers
• Very Significant Network Effects:
• Accepted for Taxes
• Legal Tender for All Debts Public & Private
• Accepted throughout Economy / Optimum Currency Area
12
Satoshi Nakamoto: BitcoinP2P e-cash paper
October 31, 2008
“I've been working on a new electronic cash system that's fully
peer-to-peer, with no trusted third party.”
14
50.
Blockchain Technology
timestamped
append-only ledger
Securedvia cryptography
• Hash functions for integrity
• Digital signatures for consent
multiple party decentralized
consensus protocol auditable database
Addresses ‘cost of trust’
(Byzantine Generals problem)
May use Native Token as incentive
• Permissioned
• Permissionless
Tamper resistant record of
• Transfers of value
• Running of computer code
15
51.
Smart Contracts
• “Aset of promises,
• specified in digital form,
• including protocols
• within which the parties perform on these promises.”
Nick Szabo, 1996
However ….
• Smart Contracts may not be ‘Smart’
• Smart Contracts may not be ‘Contracts’ 16
52.
Crypto Market -$199 Billion (4/12/20)
17
Courtesy of Coin Dance. Used with permission.
53.
Crypto Token Sectors
•Payment/ Store of Value Tokens $152B – 76%
•Bitcoin ($128B), …
•Platform Tokens $29B – 15%
•Ethereum ($18B), …
•DApp Tokens $10B – 5%
•Binance Coin ($2.3B), …
•Stable Value Tokens $8B – 4%
•Tether ($6.4B), …
•Tokenized Securities and Assets
Source: Market Values from CoinMarketCap (4.12.20)
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54.
Blockchain Tech PotentialUses
• Speculative Investing
• Crowdfunding through Initial Coin Offerings
• Tokens for Exchanges, Gaming, Gambling, DeFi & File Sharing
• Tokenized Fiat (Stable Value Coins), Securities & Assets
• Payment Systems
• Trade Finance & Supply Chain Management
• Clearing, Settlement & Processing
• Central Bank Initiatives
• Digital ID & MIT Diploma
• Medical Records, Property Records, Internet of Things, Voting … 19
Framework for ComparingCosts & Trade-offs
(Coase)
Decentralized Centralized
Coordination, governance,
security, scalability Capture, Rents,
Single Point of
Failure
21
Assessing Use Cases–
First Considerations
Which side of a divide the project is on?
Is the project one that services the new crypto asset class?
Is the project one uses blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies?
Projects servicing the cryptocurrency space:
Custody solution – Coinbase, Fidelity Exchange operation – Binance, Coinbase
Software provider – Blockstream Wallet provider – Circle
Hardware company – BitMain Asset manager – Bitcoin Suisse, Galaxy
Mining pool operator – BTC, F2Pool, Poolin News service – CoinDesk
23
59.
Assessing Use Cases–
Strategic Considerations
• What value creation proposition is there?
• Decentralized vs. Centralized Computing?
• Native Token filling what Gaps in Fiat Currency system?
• What are competitors (Traditional & Blockchain) doing?
• Why use append only ledgers, multiple party consensus and native token?
• What verification or networking costs can actually be reduced?
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60.
Assessing Use Cases–
Tactical Considerations
• Which data needs recording on append-only ledgers?
• Which multiple stakeholders need ‘write’ access to the shared ledger?
• What are the tradeoffs of performance, privacy, security, governance &
regulation?
• How can broad adoption and user interface be realized?
• If permissionless, what are the token incentive systems?
25
61.
Assessing Use Cases–
Deeper dive
• Why use multiple party shared ledger?
• Why choose a distributed ledger solution over a centralized one?
• Why not rely on a third-party authority or host?
• Is the value proposition well distributed amongst all parties?
• What is the adoption model?
• What specific verification or networking costs can be reduced?
• Authentication? Traceability? Trust?
• Are the transaction processes & data standardized?
• How much data needs to be stored?
26
62.
Incumbents’ Choices ofDatabases
Access
Client Server
Traditional Databases
Trusted Party Hosts Data
Trusted Party can Create, Read,
Update, & Delete (CRUD)
Client Server Architecture
Permissioned
Private Blockchain
Known Participants
Private Write Capability
Append Only Timestamped Log
Publicly Verifiable
No Native Currency Needed
Permissionless
Public Blockchain
Unknown Participants
No Central Intermediaries
Public Write Capability
Peer to Peer Transactions
Native Tokens & Incentives
? ?
?
?
?
27
63.
Central Bank Initiatives
RealTime Gross Settlement
• Brazil, Canada (Project Jasper), Europe and Japan (Project Stella), Singapore (Project
Ubin), South Africa (Project Khokha)
Digital Currency
• Central Bank Claim: Bahamas (Sand Dollar), Ecuador (Dinero Electrónico), Iran
(Payman), Sweden (E-Krona)
• Commercial Bank Claim: Philippines (ePiso), Senegal (eCFA), Tunisia (e-Dinar)
• Possible Hybrid: China (Digital Currency Electronic Payment)
• Commodity Backed: U.K. (Royal Mint Gold), Venezuela (Petro)
• Other: Dubai – emCash, Saudi & UAE (cross-border pilot), Uruguay (Digital Peso)
28
CBDC – Opportunities
•Continue Government Provision of a Means of Payment
• Promote Competition in Banking System
• Promote Financial Inclusion & P2P Payments
• Address Payment System ‘Pain Points’
• For Some Nations, Possibly Avert Sanctions
30
66.
CBDC - Challenges& Uncertainties
• Financial Stability and Potential to Increase Ease of Bank Runs
• Changes to Commercial Banks’ Deposits and Funding Models
• Effects on Credit Allocation and Economy
• Monetary Policy Implementation & Transmission
• Resilience of Open Payment Infrastructures
31
67.
Ground Truths
• Nakamotosolved the payments riddle - avoiding double spending
• Money is but a social & economic construct
• We already live in an age of digital money
• Append-only logs & multiparty consensus provides a peer-2-peer alternative
• Blockchain technology can address verification and networking costs
• Adoption rests on addressing comparative viability & value proposition
32
68.
Ground Truths
• Cryptomarkets are rife with scams, fraud, hacks & manipulation
• Cryptocurrencies have evolved into a speculative asset class
• Crowdfunding built on smart contracts & ICOs raised nearly $30 billion
• Lightly & non regulated markets provide retail investors direct way to trade
• The potential, though, to be a catalyst for change is real
33
Zero Commission RevenueModels
9
Courtesy of Altruist. Used with permission. Source: ‘The real story behind commission free trading’, Jason Wenk, Altruist (October 16, 2019)
Capital Markets FinTechStartups
• Addepar (2009) – Wealth Management Platform for Financial Advisors
• Capitolis (2017) – Equities & FX Infrastructure
• Carta (2012) – Ownership Management Platform
• Cloud9 (2013) – Digitizing Voice Trading
• CloudMargin (2014) – Collateral Management
• Elefant (2018) – Digital Fixed Income Broker
• iCapital Network (2013) – Alternative Investment Platoform for
Financial Advisors
15
91.
Capital Markets FinTechStartups
• IEX (2012) – Stock Exchange
• Kantox (2011) – Institutional FX Trading
• Pitchbook (2007) – Private Capital Market Research
• Q4 (2006) – Investment Research
• Trumid (2014) – Bond Trading & Data Platform
• TruValue Labs (2013) – Analytics on ESG Investing
16
92.
Crypto Exchanges
• Actas agents (matching buyers & sellers) -- Traditional exchanges do as well
• Act as market makers (buying & selling from customers) -- Traditional exchanges don’t
• Hold customer funds in Custody -- Traditional exchanges don’t
• Public has direct access -- Traditional exchanges must go through a broker
• Lend money to customers for margin trading -- Securities markets use brokers or banks
• Crypto fees wide vs. Traditional markets
• Crypto Market Largely traded on Crypto only platforms – lacking direct fiat capabilities
• Not regulated for market integrity rules, rife with fake volumes and manipulation
• List tokens for fees similar to equity markets but different than currency markets
17
93.
Crypto Exchanges
‘Top Tier’Trading Volumes
18
Image by CryptoCompare. Used with permission . Source: ‘Exchange Review March 2020’, CryptoCompare (4/20)
94.
Crypto Lending andBorrow
• Lending Crypto or Fiat collateralized by Crypto
•BlockFi, Celsius, CoinLoan, Crypto.com, ETHLend,
Genesis Capital, Nexo, Salt
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FinTech - Finance’sFertile Ground
Coronavirus Crisis
• Digitalization of Money, Securities and Credit
• Wide Public Acceptance of New Tech
• Legacy Customer Interface and Processing Systems
• Vast and Expanding Amounts of Customer Data
• Rapid Expansion of Computational & Analytical Power
• Reliance on Multiple Systems of Ledgers
• Infrastructure Systems’ Costs and Counterparty Risks
• Economic Rents and Centralized Concentrated Risks
10
105.
Coronavirus: FinTech Incumbents& Tech
• Big Finance
• Volumes: Capital Markets, Government Debt
• Stimulus Loan Programs
• Allocations for Loan Loss Reserves
• Reliance on Connectivity
• Big Tech
• Significant Online Growth
• Possible Shifts in Views on Data Usage - Contact Tracing
11
106.
Coronavirus: FinTech Startups
•Runway: Burn Rates, Cash, Revenue Model & Adoption Rates
• IPOs on Hold
• VC Investment will Slow
• Valuations Decline
• Consolidation Increases
• Sector Matters:
• Transaction fees & Consumer Credit?
• Retail, Travel, Events, Restaurants?
• Mobile Trading, Remittances, Compliance
12
107.
Coronavirus: FinTech
• AdditionalOpportunities
• Serving Those Tapping Fiscal Stimulus & Loan Programs
• Consumer & SME Refinancing's & Consolidation Loans
• New uses & sources of Alternative Data
• Additional Challenges
• Delinquencies & Defaults
• Loan Servicing
• Business Models relying on Float 13
What is DeFi?
Ameme and a rallying cry A global mass movement
An industry of builders A reaction to failures in traditional finance
113.
Finance has noteven begun it’s equivalent to the printing press
phase of the information revolution!
— Joey Krug, CoFounder of Augur and Pantera
114.
1. Inaccessible
Financial servicesare
exclusionary based on
arbitrary criteria like
jurisdiction and investor
accreditation
2. Inefficient
Financial services are
plagued by human
intermediaries that are
costly in terms of money
and time
Finance is overdue for a revolution
Because despite all of its successes, finance remains:
3. Opaque
Financial services are
opaque, resulting in
“surprise” over-leveraging
or “too big to fail”
systemic risks
115.
3. Transparent
DeFi servicesare built on
publicly auditable
blockchains
2. Efficient
DeFi services use code to
eliminate intermediaries
with rote responsibilities
1. Accessible
DeFi services are globally
accessible to anyone with
an internet connection
DeFi is an attempt to correct these failures.
Flipping the script on traditional finance, DeFi services are:
116.
DeFi will doto Finance
what the Internet did to News Media
117.
DeFi democratizes creation
Blogsare permissionless news media.
DeFi is permissionless finance.
Insurance, Derivatives, Options
Augur
Baskets of Assets
Set
Lending Agreements
Dharma
Synthetic Financial Instruments
UMA
118.
DeFi democratizes access
NYTimes.comprovides anyone with an internet connection** access to news.
Dharma.io provides anyone with an internet connection access to dollar-denominated interest.
**Excluding government regimes that censor news media. One attack vector for DeFi may be government regimes that censor finance.
Hedging, Leverage, Shorting
dYdX
Exchange any value
AirSwap, 0x, Uniswap, Kyber
Compound your wealth
Dharma
Earn in the way you want
Whisp
119.
Smart contracts automatehuman processes that previously
needed to be “trusted”:
1. Custodians
2. Escrow agents
3. Paying agents
DeFi automates inefficient human processes
Who needs newspaper deliveries when you have the internet?
Who needs regulated custodians, escrow agents, or paying agents when you have smart contracts?
120.
DeFi is systemicallytransparent
In 2008, it was really hard to be Michael Burry.
In 2019, all it takes to be in The Big Short is Etherscan.
121.
DeFi is arevolution, creating the financial system that
was always meant to be.
122.
Ok we knowwhere we’re going,
but where are we today?
123.
DeFi growth willplay out in phases
PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3
Market
Expansionary
Subsume
Legacy
Blockchain
Native
Today we’re in Phase 1, but by 2020 we’ll be market expansionary.
124.
Overcollateralized loans arethe "Hello World" of programmable money. —Julian Koh
1. Lending (30 Day Originations)1
a. Maker — 15.1m USD
b. Dharma — 7.9m USD
c. Compound — 3.4m USD
2. Exchange (30 Day Vol)2
a. Kyber — 18m USD
b. 0x — 13.2m USD
c. AirSwap — 5.7m USD
d. Uniswap —
DeFi Phase 1 — Blockchain Native
https://mikemcdonald.github.io/eth-defi/
Sources: 1) loanscan.io; 2) Tracker.Kyber, 0xTracker, UniSwap,
125.
Every disruptor startssmall
DeFi Phase 1 — Blockchain Native
Sources: loanscan.io, SEC Edgar
126.
1. Net-New Access
●Global dollar-denominated interest
● Global access to all equities
● Global information & betting markets
Sophisticated financial services in every pocket.
DeFi’s Market Expansionary phase will be defined by two broad movements:
DeFi Phase 2 — Market Expansionary
2. Net-New Products
● Parametric insurance for #AllTheThings
● Invest in entertainers, athletes, & politicians
● REITs with Region/City/Street specific profile
Smart contract insurance
Smartcontracts fail. We need insurance for this.
Who’s cooking up a solution?
DeFi’s missing building blocks
What we need to go from here to there to everywhere
Better Fiat Onramps
Still takes far too long to move fiat to crypto.
Where’s my Stripe solution for this?
Better Oracles
Getting off-chain information on-chain still a
challenge. Who’s working on this?
Better Private Key Management
Hexadecimals, seed phrases, no recoverability.
Let’s fix these things!
130.
We know whatthe future can look like.
It’s up to the builders here to make it a reality.
Decentralized AI Marketplaces:The Concept
What if…
e e d d a a d b e c d de e da a c e e
privately and securely in an open data exchange?
AI de c d c e e eac e de e be e ?
e e e c d be c e a ed a a c a e ab e?
Wouldn’t we…
e d MORE da a a c e a a ab e GAFA a d e
centralized entities?
a a e NEW a d BETTER da a?
a d e e e be e de , a d be e AI?
b a e a a e AI
虛擬貨幣納入洗錢防制
FATF FinCEN
Proposed January2019 1997
Passed June 2019 2013
Effectiveness June 2020 in 37 G20 countries Enforcing now
Threshold 1,000 EUR 3,000 USD
DEXs Not covered* Potential covered
Private Coin and Mixers Must comply Must comply
Applies to
Financial Institutions
YES YES
* DEX is not covered by the FATF recommendation 16