The document discusses fundamental space threats: - A space war has never occurred, so its conditions and strategies are unknown. - Surprise attacks in space will be difficult to detect due to distances and unmanned assets. - Historical examples show surprise attacks resulted in much higher casualty ratios. - The side that first employs offensive weapons against space systems will likely gain an advantage in a short space war and disrupt the other's use of space assets.

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Space Policy Issues
- Space Threats -
14 June, 2010

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Fundamental Space Threats-1
World Has Not Yet Experienced a Full-
Out Space War
Difficult to Assess What the Likely
Conditions, Battlefield Tempo,
Strategies & Tactics Would Underlay a
Future Space Conflict
Space Warfare Future is Unknown

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Fundamental Space Threats-2
 Despite Best Efforts at INTEL Collection, Many Historical
Examples of Surprise Attack
 Pearl Harbor
 Battle of the Bulge (in Spite of 11,000 Ultra Message Decryptions
Indicating Buildup of Major German Forces for Attack)
 Yalu River in Korea
 Most Israeli-Arab Conflicts
 Due to the Distances Involved in Space & Unmanned Nature
of the Environment, Surprise Attacks in Space Can Only be
Even More Difficult to Detect
Surprise Attacks In Space Will Occur

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The Value of Surprise
National Defense University Study:
Analysis of 16 Major Conflicts in 20th Century
138 Cases of Surprise Attacks Assessed
Study Results
Without Surprise - 1 : 1.7 Casualty Ratio
With Surprise - 1 : 14.5 Casualty Ratio

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Fundamental Space Threats-3
 Many New Weapon Technologies Provided Considerable Advantages to
Their First User
 Catapult vs. Greek Fortifications
 Cannon vs. Castle Walls
 Crossbow vs. Shield
 Musket vs. Body Armor
 Tank vs. Machine Gun
 Shaped-Charge vs. Bunker
 Airplane vs. Battleship
 More Than Likely the Side That First Employs Offensive Weapons
Against Space Systems Will “Win” the Space War, & Unbalance a
Country’s Use of Space Systems to Support the Terrestrial Battlefield, at
Least Over the Short Duration of Any Probable Future Major Conflict.
Side That Attacks First In Space Will Win???

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Fundamental Space Threats-3
 Many New Weapon Technologies Provided Considerable Advantages to
Their First User
 Catapult vs. Greek Fortifications
 Cannon vs. Castle Walls
 Crossbow vs. Shield
 Musket vs. Body Armor
 Tank vs. Machine Gun
 Shaped-Charge vs. Bunker
 Airplane vs. Battleship
 More Than Likely the Side That First Employs Offensive Weapons
Against Space Systems Will “Win” the Space War, & Unbalance a
Country’s Use of Space Systems to Support the Terrestrial Battlefield, at
Least Over the Short Duration of Any Probable Future Major Conflict.
Side That Attacks First In Space Will Win???