This presentation was presented at the Canadian Space Summit in Nov. 2010 in Ottawa, Canada. It is based on a workshop held in Sept 2010 in Prague, at the Space Generation Congress, where delegates discussed the prospects, challenges and potential hindrances of the development of the new generation of commercial space activities.

1. Next
Genera*on
Considera*ons
for
the
Commercial
Space
Market
Canadian
Space
Summit
Commercializa*on
Session
November
21,
2010
By:
Farnaz
Ghadaki
–
Marke;ng
Consultant;
Delegate,
SGC2010;
Director,
CSCA
Page 1

2. Outline
• About SGAC and SGC2010
• “Industry” Assessment Overview
• Launching Industry
– Strengths
– Weaknesses
– Opportunities
– Threats
• Recommendations
• Video (clip)
2

3. About SGAC
(Space Generation Advisory Council)
• Non-profit organisation of advanced students and young
professionals, age 18 – 35
• Conceived at the Third United Nations Conference (July 1999)
on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space
(UNISPACE III):
- Product was the Vienna Declaration where the States
resolved “To create, within the framework of the
Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, a
consultative mechanism to facilitate the continued
participation of young people from all over the world,
especially young people from developing countries and
young women, in cooperative space-related activities…”
• Over 90 countries are represented by 60 National Points of
Contact as of 2010
• SGAC has a volunteer network of ~4,000 members
3

4. About SGAC
• Has held permanent observer
status in the UN COPUOS
since 2001, and has been a
member of the UN Economic
and Social Council since 2003
• Headquartered in Vienna,
Austria, and hosted by the
European Space Policy
Institute
Purpose:
• Create a global volunteer base of advanced students and
young professionals in the space sector who have a passion
for making a difference and a commitment to action
• Connect them to each other and to top space professionals
and organisations
• Give the youth a voice in global space policy
4

5. Space Generation Congress
Page 5

6. • SGAC hosted its 9th Annual Space Generation
Congress (SGC) in Prague, Czech Republic,
from September 23 - 25, 2010
• 100 delegates were chosen (from approx. 220
applicants) from 40 countries
• 5 working groups discussed, analyzed and made
recommendations on topics of: Agency, Climate,
Exploration, Industry, and Outreach
• Final report is being presented to UNCOPUOS
and to industry, agency, and academic
organizations that collaborate with SGAC
6

7. Industry Group - The New, Increased
Role of Industry in the Space Sector
• PURPOSE: To raise awareness among the general
public and decision makers about private aspects of
space activities and the potential for successful
development; representing voice of next generation
• The group consisted of 18 participants:
- Representing 15 countries: Belarus, Belgium, Canada,
Iran, Italy, Japan, Finland, Mexico, Philippines, Poland,
South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, UK, USA
- With wide range of expertise incl. business, engineering,
finance, journalism, law, marketing, policy, and PR
- SMEs from Space Frontier Foundation and SpaceWorks
• Pre-reading material included 17 articles (~80 pages)
• Group spent ~15 hrs over 3 days discussing, analyzing,
and coming up with recommendations
7

8. Assessment Overview
• Categorization – brainstormed current &
possible private ventures, grouped in 3:
– Space Applications – current: remote sensing,
microgravity tech/sciences, utilization of ISS, satellite
telecom’s, and GNSS; new: space tourism, in-orbit
services, manufacturing in space,..
– Resource Utilization – mining of
celestial bodies, space solar
power, geostationary orbit Mg’t
– Launching
• Methodology: SWOT Analysis
– Focused on Launch Industry
8

9. Assessment Overview
• Factors considered:
– Legal, public policy, ethics & implications on space
agencies
– Technical & engineering: incl. mobility, flexibility, and
transferability to other non-space applications
– Economic & social: incl. capital, financing, profitability,
employment & resource management
– Marketability, competitiveness, public perception and
media involvements
– Collaboration opportunities that encompass agencies,
academia, and the symbiosis among the university
R&D / industry
9

10. Launching - SWOT
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
• Sovereign Right To Access To • Safety/Reliability
Space • Import/Export Ctrl Regulations
• Policy Commitment • Lack of Global Space Traffic
• Steady Growth Management
• Independence • Diverse Global Technological/
Education (Un) Readiness
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
• Encouraging Innovation • Supply & Demand Issues
Through Competition • Kessler Effect
• Shared Liability W/ Gov’t • Regulatory Changes in
• Financial Transparency & International Law
Accountability • (UN) Responsible Use of
• Advancement of Mankind Space Commercialization
10

11. Launching - Strengths
• Sovereign Right to Access to Space
– Enabling almost every country to reach their intrinsic
right of going to space by providing less expensive
access ($50M Falcon9 vs $90-$100M Proton)
• Steady Growth
Acc. to Space Foundation’s
Space Report 2010, aggregate
2009 revenue for commercial
space infrastructure (being 32%
of space economy) = $83.63 B.
Private launching expected to
bring in even more revenue.
Global Space Activity, 2009 11

12. Launching - Strengths
• Policy Commitment
– US National Space Policy 2010 emphasizes the
importance of commercial sector and its development
– Competition may lower the cost to reach space and
even spur the development of new space applications
• Independence
– Private space co’s free to pursue any business model
– Drive new technologies, hardware, innovation that are
not anticipated by governmental actors, AND faster
– Enable new ways to extract benefits from technology
already in place: e.g. develop and rent orbital labs,
orbital hotels, satellites servicing facilities
12

13. Launching - Weaknesses
• Safety/Reliability in Space Transportation
– Successful experimental launches does not mean
commercial space transportation is safe
– Service providers asking customers to waive possible
claims that may result from a private spaceflight
• Import/Export Control Regulations (e.g. ITAR)
– Currant national export controls harm the private
sector more than they serve the country’s interest
– Nations cannot compete on a global market just
because they cannot get their product or service
legally and/or in timely fashion
13

14. Launching - Weaknesses
• Lack of Global Space Traffic Management
– More launches performed each yr w/ more payloads
– No Global Space Traffic Management System is in
place to ensure collision avoidance, improve utility of
GEO, decrease congestion of other “popular” orbits,
and increase safety of human spaceflight missions
• Global Technological/Education (Un) Readiness
– Considerable technological and educational gap that
grows among the developed and developing countries
– Lack of political vision, committed public budgets to
develop the national intellectual capacity and the
inexperience
14

15. Launching - Opportunities
• Encouraging innovation through competition:
– New market created based on private property,
freedom of enterprise, and competition (vs. monopoly)
– Corporate profit/success drive technological
advances, production improvements, and process
innovations – thus providing competitive advantage
– Decrease $/Kg price
• Advancement of Mankind
– Goal of reliable & affordable access to space enables
advancement in exploration, new markets/apps (e.g.
P2P transportation), & improvement in quality of life
15

16. Launching - Opportunities
• Shared Liability With Government
– As per Outer Space Treaty, the launching State of a
private commercial endeavor is the ultimate subject of
responsibility and liability
– Shared liability provides assurance to commercial
space venture and is a factor that ensures safety
• Financial Transparency and Accountability
– Promoted by strict enforcement of accounting rules
and regulations for publically traded companies
– Both investors and regulators can evaluate the state
of the companies involved
16

17. Launching - Threats
• Supply and Demand Issue
– Demand in some ancillary markets (suborbital ‘space
tourism’, P2P transportation) is hard to anticipate &
may exceed projected interest of general public
– Possible failures at early stages affecting demand
• The Kessler Effect
– Scenario in which the density of objects (useful and
space junk) in low earth orbit is high enough that
collisions between objects could cause a cascade
– This poses a real & considerable threat to launching
sector in its entirety (governmental and commercial)
17

18. Launching - Threats
• Regulatory Changes in International Law
– Prohibition of appropriation of celestial bodies leaves
ventures w/ no practical incentive to exploit resources
– No established intern’l regime of utilization of space
resources = unclear destiny of materials brought back
– Delegation of jurisdiction & control over space objects
to State of their registry hinders space junk managm’t
• (UN)Responsible use of Space Commercializ’n
– many feel that all space exploration should be in the
interests & for the benefit of all – this may not always
be in congruence with private, commercial enterprise
18

19. Recommendations:
1. Proper laws and regulations are set (or
decreased, in the case of ITAR)
– As stated in the 2009 Report of the Review of
U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee
– To encourage international partnerships
among space agencies and companies
– To help increase demand and harbour new
technologies
– To increase and accelerate access to space,
whether it is a scientific, commercial or
recreational in nature
– To address ethical and safety issues (e.g.
manage/control space debris)
19

20. Recommendations:
2. More nations/agencies to enable
commercialization of space by pursuing social
benefits through the sustained political,
economical and technological support
– Maintain robust economy that enables innovation,
and support industry development
– Support collaboration between networks &
industry to stimulate commercialization of science
& technology research (both spin-in & spin-out)
– Identify skill shortage and training needs and
invest in education & skill development programs
– Build competitve regions via initiatives that
stimulate local economy
20

21. Recommendations:
3. Prizes & Awards: foster innovation, stimulate
competition & promote development of private
space industry
a. S-Pace Prize: a competition for the best new
commercially viable space-related business plan.
Feed into the already established Space Frontier
Foundation NewSpace Business Plan Competition
b. S-Pace Award: credit best person/group/project for
the best advancement towards space utilization
c. Pro-commercialization (of space) event, as forum
for S-Pace Prize and the S-Pace Award as well as
other pro-commercialization outreach activities
and projects
These would be set up by SGAC and/or other groups
21

22. Recommendations:
4. Networks to leverage/optimize resources
a. Knowledge-Transfer Network: to encourage
retiring space professionals to consult/advise
emerging space nations/organizations
– transfer knowledge, skills, expertise; a secure DB of
interested parties could be created and maintained
b. Dedicated PR/Media Network: bringing together
(or otherwise coordinate) different means of media
worldwide dedicated specifically to cover or to
address issues of (commercialization of) space
These could be set up by SGAC which has broad
access to networks and resources, incl through its
partners: NASA, Secure World Foundation, Lockheed
Martin and ESA
22

23. Recommendations:
5. SGAC Lobbying for NewSpace as a Strategic
Activity
– consider adding global lobbying for the
promotion and development of commercial
space as one of its primary activities for next
years’ strategic development plan
– SGAC already has a voice in policy via
supporting UN Action Teams, UN COPUOS,
and UN OOSA
– SGAC should be not only the voice of young
people on international arena but also be the
active advocate for NewSpace itself
23

24. Recommendations:
6. Strengthen public perception and increase
education through media & entertainment
– Leverage celebrities interested in space, e.g.
those rumored to have purchased Virgin Galactic
flights
– Enhance space image via prizes for artistic
depiction of space-theatre, film, music, fashion
24

25. Space
Genera*on
Advisory
Council
Promo*onal
Video
(Clip)
YouTube ‘From Sputnik, to Today, to Tomorrow’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwZf-QsnmrQ
produced
by
Art
Anisimov
and
Andrew
Bacon
www.spacegeneration.org
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