How bad is Chinese Real Estate market? How big is shadow banking? What will be China GDP growth?

1. Global Markets Department
Deep dive in China

2. Global Leverage = 1x to 3x.

3. EM Macro downgrades: no end in sight

4. EM/DM relative performance

5. China: economic suprises

6. SHIBOR: regulatory push to trade RISK

7. Western consensus: DIVERGENCE

8. Shadow banking: $2T or $4T?

9. Property starts lag sales by ~6 months

10. Indicators that worked before

11. Property investor: got time?

12. Developers borrowing by source (accumulated)

13. Infrastructure: got cash? only rail funded by Mao

14. Steel/Iron Ore/Cement/Coal … RIP

15. BUY SELL

16. Worst case: all bank’s capital is lost already

17. US developers

18. Chinese developers

19. Structural deterioration to continue

20. EM Groups
Mismanaged: Argentina, Ukraine, Venezuela
Overspending: Turkey, S. Africa, Indonesia, Chile, Peru
Historical problems: Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria
Structural problems: Brazil, India, Russia, China
Reforming: Nigeria, Philippines, Mexico, Poland

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