Senior Group is a well-established player in Latvia and Lithuania. We have successfully launched their first Big Family House type residence in Latvia in 2018 and have since expanded to a total of 6 residences (5 in Latvia, 1 in Lithuania), all fully owned by the business.
Additionally, under the MAMA-OK brand, the Group provides remote home care services in Riga (Latvia) as well as Vilnius, Panevezys, and Ukmerge (Lithuania).
As of September 2023, the existing residence portfolio includes 223 beds in Latvia and 18 beds in Lithuania. The average occupancy rate for residences in 2023 reached 95%, which is expected to be a sustainable rate going forward. It takes approximately 1 month for a newly constructed bed to reach maturity.
Furthermore, SG owns land and construction permits for an additional 257 beds in Latvia and has acquired additional land in Lithuania.
In 2023, the total revenue is expected to reach EUR 5.3 million, with 14% contributed by the Lithuanian business launched in 2022 (the first residence became operational only in 2023). The majority of the revenue (80%) is generated by the residential business unit.
The profitability in FY 2023 is projected to reach a 20% EBITDAR adj. margin level, which is considered sustainable for fully owned mature residences at this scale.
As of September 2023, the Group employs approximately 230 people in Latvia and 70 people in Lithuania.
The historical development of the company has been fully financed by shareholder funds. To date, the shareholders have invested EUR 9.0 million into the company, with EUR 6.4 million allocated to real estate and construction, while the remaining balance was used for operations.
2. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL 2
Executive summary
Creating pan-Baltic market leader in long-term care residences
Experienced
management
Existing platform
Significant market
potential
Unique operational and
real estate concept
Target project metrics
• Sophisticated founders with 15+ years of experience in
healthcare and senior care industries
• Experienced team is well positioned to develop existing
operations and implement ambitious development plan
• Underinvested market compared to Western and Nordic
neighbours
• Existing requirement for up to 10,000 beds already now
• By 2040 there will be a need to introduce additional 80,000
beds in the Baltics to support the ageing population trends
• One of the leaders in the Latvian market. Presence in Lithuania
• 6 residences, 223 operating beds and 257 beds in pipeline
• Profitable operations with 20% adj. EBITDA margin based on
fully owned real estate
• Already successful Big Family House concept. New Urban
Residence concept being introduced
• Multipurpose real-estate in marketable locations which can also
be used as residential real estate for lower-middle class
population
• Building pan-Baltic market leader in LTC residences with 6%
overall market share and 20% of the private market
• 2,200 operating beds and further 4,000 beds in the pipeline
• 50% SLB ratio. Rent yield to property owners 8% + VAT
• Operating targets: EUR 72 mln in revenue and EUR 15 mln
EBITDAR
Investment requirements
(50% SLB case*)
Exit route
How: sale to strategic or specialized PE/infra fund
When: 2029 or later
Expected CoC: 3.5x
Expected IRR: 39%
EUR 87.8 mln
Total external funding requirement
EUR 26.4 mln
Total Equity
EUR 61.4 mln
Total Debt**
17.5
24.2
19.6
7.6
10.4
8.5
Latvia Lithuania Estonia
* Scenario where 50% of constructed real estate is sold under long-term sale-
lease back agreement to real estate investors
** Assumption that 70% of real estate construction CAPEX is financed by debt
12.0 14.0
2023 2026
Equity requirement timeline, EUR ‘000
3. Institutional elderly care market in the Baltics
Underdeveloped market lacking investment
• The market value for long-term care amounted to EUR 600 mln in the Baltics and was growing by 10% CAGR before
COVID. In terms of per capita spending Baltic states are 2-3 times below EU-27 average rates and even further behind
the leading countries
• Around 30% of people older than 80 years of age are residents of professional long-term care facilities. The remaining
part stays at home with their family. Current indicator for the Baltic States is around 10-15% and is limited with a number
of beds available
• As of 2023 there were 357 ths. people in the Baltics older than 80 years, which constitute 5.8% of regional population.
This indicator is at par with EU27 average of 6.0%.
• It is expected that by 2040, the Baltic population of elderly people >80 y.o. will increase by 26% to almost 450 ths. or
8.2% of population. The growth rates of population aging are lower compared to EU27 (46%) which is related to a
number of factors including healthcare quality and life expectancy
• Total capacity of the LTC facilities in the Baltics is expressed in the number of beds which amounted to 37,548 in 2021
which is significantly below market needs. There is up to 10,000 gap in beds required to cover today’s demand and
further 80,000 beds need to be commissioned until 2040
• Per capita density of LTC beds in the Baltic countries has significant room for improvement as compared to market
leading countries, for example from 12.4 beds per capital in Latvia to 63.9 beds per capita in Sweden
• There is around 440 LTC residences in the Baltics, including 127 private residences, 185 municipal residences and the
balance is non-for-profit and other organizations
• Furthermore, based on the independent research around 30-40% of beds in the region were constructed before 1991,
which means that the sector required significant capital investments
80,933 106,227
114,097
132,924
161,918
209,445
2023 2040
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Addressable market (population >80 y.o.),
number of people
356,948
448,596
+26%
12.4
38.5
41.4
47.4
50.8
63.9
Latvia Lithuania Estonia France Finland Sweden
Number of LTC beds per capita*
4,887
11,198
21,463
Latvia Estonia Lithuania
Number of LTC beds, 2021
Source: OECD, Eurostat statistics
LTC market size*, EUR mln
*Based on healthcare expenditure on long-term healthcare
145 159 178 196
80 85 101 113
230 239
257
293
2017 2018 2019 2020
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
454 483
563
602
10% CAGR
0.38
0.59 0.73
2.01
1.66
2.98
Latvia Lithuania Estonia France Finland Sweden
LTC spending, as % of GDP
EU average = 1.80
∑=37,548
*per 1000 population population >65yo
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STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
4. Existing platform
Well established player in Latvia and Lithuania
• Following successful launch of its first Big Family House type residence in Latvia in 2018, SG grew in
size to reach 6 residences (5 in Latvia, 1 in Lithuania) which are fully owned by the business
• In addition, the Group provides remote home care services in Riga (Latvia) as well Vilnius,
Panevezys, Ukmerge (Lithuania) under MAMA-OK brand
• Existing residence portfolio includes 223 beds in Latvia and 18 beds in Lithuania as of September
2023
• In 2023 average occupancy rate for residences reached 95% which is expected to be a sustainable
rate going forward. Average time for a newly constructed bed maturity is 1 month
• Furthermore, SG owns land and construction permits for 257 beds in Latvia and additional land in
Lithuania
• In 2023 total revenue is expected to reach EUR 5.3 mln, where 14% are contributed by Lithuanian
business launched in 2022 (first residence became operation only in 2023). Most of the revenue (80%)
is generated by residential business unit
• Profitability in FY 2023 is expected to reach 20% EBITDAR adj. margin level which is a sustainable
indicator for fully owned mature residences at such scale
• The Group employed ca 230 people in Latvia and 70 people in Lithuania as of September 2023
• Historical development was fully financed by shareholder funds. Up to date shareholders invested
EUR 9.0 mln into the company, including EUR 6.4 mln in real estate and construction, while the
balance was used for operations
812
1,916
3,597
5,254
2020 2021 2022 2023E
Latvia Lithuania
Historical revenue dynamics, EUR ‘000k
80%
20%
Residences
Home care
3Y CAGR 87%
Existing business highlights
95%
occupancy
rate
20%**
EBITDAR
margin
238
beds
6
residences
#2* private player
in Latvia
* Lost market leadership following consolidation of 2 players in the market
** Currently EBITDA is equal to EBITDAR as all real estate is fully owned
4
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Brands
Key milestones
Beginning of 2018,
opened the 1st
residence in Riga
suburb (Lapsas)
June 2019, completed
the 2nd phase for an
additional 12 people
Start of 2020,
completed 3rd phase
for 42 additional
places
End of 2020, new Senior
Vecmīlgrāvis residence was
opened in Riga (two-story
building with 4 blocks, incl. for
those suffering from dementia)
Start of 2021,
completed 4th and
final phase of the
complex in Lapsas
September 2021, the
“Senior Ogre” was
opened in Ogre
region (6 residential
buildings)
April 2022, the first stage
of the Senior residence in
Ādaži region was
completed (2 twin houses)
End of 2022, was opened
new residence in Jurmala
region and the first
Lithuaninan residence in
Panevežys
Ongoing construction of
the 2nd phase of "Senior
Vecmīlgrāvis“ and "Senior
Ādaži“ residences
5. Existing platform
Big Family House Concept
• At the beginning of 2018, Senior Group opened the doors of the first residence for the elderly Big Family House (BFH) in Riga
(Latvia). In June 2019, Senior Group completed the second phase of the project providing accommodation for an additional 12
people. At the start of 2020, completed the third phase, providing 42 additional places for older people (including 14 in a
specialist home for people with Alzheimer's and dementia).
• BFH concept is an alternative to regular long-term care approach which combines family-style life and institutional care through
combination architectural, technological and social solutions. It allows residence to embrace a feeling of living in a family
environment for people over 80 years old
• Architectural solution evolves around detached twin houses made using panel technology provided Nordic Homes. Such houses
are able to accommodate up to 15 residents. BFH concept can be scaled into a small village with shared operational
infrastructure. Such approach makes this solution affordable even to lower-middle class families
• As a result, Big Family Houses are typically located in or near residential areas of major cities which makes residents a part of
local social infrastructure as well as allows for easy visits of family members
• Basic services principles are built around the following fundamentals:
• Accommodation and food (proper living environment and homemade food)
• Safety (training residents to live in a suitable environment minimizing the risk of falls; emergency help and medication
available 24/7)
• Care (regular assessment, personal ADL Activities of daily living)
• Social stimulation (stimulation of independence, support for community and family interactions)
• Additional social activities are being promoted within organization allowing residents to fill-in gaps in social belonginess, which
becomes a new industry standard in the Baltics
• Furthermore, SG is testing a new concept of Urban Residences designed for people over 70 years which typically have different
physiological condition and respective needs. In addition, there are specific residence concepts designed for people with
different diseases, such as Alzheimer for example.
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STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
6. Development strategy
Creating a market leader in elderly LTC residence management in the region
• SG has a vision to build a market leading network of elderly LTC facilities network
across all Baltic States over the next 5-year period
• This would require construction of 2,238 operational beds in total including:
• 839 in Latvia (including 223 existing beds),
• 780 Lithuania (including 18 existing beds), and
• 619 in Estonia
• This would allow to take 6% overall market share in the Baltics by number of beds or
20% of the private market in the region
• Under the base case scenario SG finances construction of the entire LTC facility
portfolio and sells 50% of the constructed property under long-term sale-lease back
(SLB) agreements. The model assumes 8% [+VAT] yield from the SLB value to the
real estate investors
• Such combination of owned/leased property has proven to be the most resilient
business model on the European scale
• Total investment into construction and working capital is estimated to be EUR
125 mln, of which EUR 26.4 mln is equity requirement, EUR 61.4 mln is debt and
remaining EUR 37.2 mln are expected to be generated from SLB transactions
(which together with operating cash flow would also cover interest payments and debt
amortization)
• The projected revenue is expected to reach EUR 72 mln by 2029. For the purpose of
the model, home care revenue has been forecasted to growth with inflation level
• EBITDAR adj. is expected to exceed EUR 15 mln (21% margin) by 2029. Taking into
consideration 50% SLB scenario and respective rent payments, EBITDA should exceed
EUR 10 mln (14% margin) by 2029
• There is also an option to create infrastructure for constructing [4,000] additional
development pipeline beds across the region (acquisition of land, receipt of construction
permits and other operating permits) ahead of exit in order to ensure continuous
development and increase exit valuation
Number of beds evolution over timeline
Projected revenue and EBITDA, EUR mln
6,238
6
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
427 679 931 1,183 1,238
357
609
861 1,000
1,008
3,024
4,000
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Owned SLB Pipeline
5,068
2,548
1,036
532
238
839
780
619 Latvia
Lithuania
Estonia
5Y revenue CAGR 62%
6.4 8.2
20.8
36.9
54.5
71.8
0.7 0.2 2.3
5.9
10.1
15.1
11%
2%
11%
16%
19%
21%
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Revenue EBITDAR EBITDAR margin
7. Management team
Experienced management team in elderly LTC facility management and healthcare
• Launched first long-term elderly care facility together with French Group Almage
back in 2007 which he exited in 2011
• Launched Senior Group operations in Latvia in 2018 which became one of the
industry leaders in a highly fragmented market
• Launched Senior Group operations in Lithuania in 2023
• Over the course of his carrier in long-term care facility management, Nikolai has
developed Big Family House concept and and introduced in the Baltic States
• Holds a EMBA degree from the London School of Economics and Political
Science
Nikolai Kobliakov Josifs Apts
• Over 20 year-experience in healthcare industry in Latvia as one of the
founders of Repharm Group
• Successfully developed VCA Poliklinika (outpatient healthcare clinics
network) and Centrala Laboratorija (invitro medical testing laboratory) into
industry leaders in Latvia
• In 2020 facilitated acquisition of Medica Group (leading private healthcare
provider in Lithuania) by Repharm Group and subsequent merger with
InMedica (private healthcare provider in Lithuania) which effectively turned
out to be the largest transactions in private healthcare sector in Lithuania
7
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
8. 8
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