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- 1. Frost & SullivanFrost & Sullivan MEMS in the Russian semiconductor industry landscapeMEMS in the Russian semiconductor industry landscape Dmitry Pokhlebkin Frost & Sullivan
- 2. Russia holds a small share of the global electronic components* (EC) market, with domestic electronic components meeting only 27% of the Russian market demand Russian electronic components market: Supply chain, 2013 Global electronic components market: World segmentation, 2013 г. Foreign EC manufactures Foreign franchise distributors Global electronic components market Russian EC Imports D ti Foreign independent distributors Other 17 % Other 17 % Russian electronic components market reached $ 2.7 Bn in 2013 reached $ 450 Bn in 2013 manufactures Federal Russian distributors Domestic Combined USA 12 % USA 12 % Europe 11 % Europe 11 % Russia < 1 % Russia < 1 % JapanJapan China 53 % China 53 % 17 %17 % Regioanl Russian distributors Combined 11% 8% 17% 53% 10% 1% p 7 % p 7 % 53 %53 % Конечные потребители электронных компонентов (OEM, EMS) Domestic electronic components comprises 27%Note: * - Electronic components include semiconductors and passive 2 27% Sources: Frost & Sullivan components
- 3. Even provided outpacing growth of the domestic electronics industry Russia will keep staying lower 1% of the global marketRussia will keep staying lower 1% of the global market Russian electronic components market, $ BnGlobal electronic components market, $ Bn 2,34 2,52 2,703 375 419 429 449 400 500 CAGR 2009 – 2013 гг. 11% CAGR 2009 – 2013 гг. 18% 1,41 1,90 1 2298 200 300 400 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0,6% 0 9% 100% Segmentation of global electronic components market, % Current Russia share in the global electronic components market is 0,6% (ie 2.7 / 449) 99,4% 99,1% 0,6% 0,9% 98% 99% Russia World Provided outpacing growth of the domestic electronics industry (ie 18% - 11%) Russia will have 0,9% by 2020 3 2013 2020 Sources: Frost & Sullivan
- 4. … but “Ukrainian crisis” consequences are not taken into account … Negative factors of possible sanctions against Russia: Correlation graphs of oil prices and Russian electronic components market 1503 against Russia: Force reduction oil prices on the international market Oil price forecast implicit in the federal50 100 150 1 2 3 / barrel $ Bn Oil price forecast implicit in the federal budget for 2014 is $ 101 per barrel Increased competition in the world military markets 00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $ / Russian EC market Oil price Currently 35% of the Russian EC market is military and aerospace … others: Russian EC market segmentation, 2013 г. 5% 4% 2% Military and aerospace Rupture of the cooperation in a number of international research projects Issues of “dual use“ equipments and products imported into Russia 35% 7% 6% 5% Military and aerospace Industrial electronics Communications equipment Automotive electronics products imported into Russia … 8% 8% Security systems Consumer electronics Medical electronics Lightning and displays 4 25% Retail equipment Sources: Frost & Sullivan
- 5. On the background of value migration in EC subsegment Russia participates in the most marginal and high-tech EC sectors, excluding passive EC, but not enough developing microelectronics EC value chain, Russia, 2013 5 years ago today in 5 years Materials EC Modules Product Materials EC Modules Product Materials EC Modules Product 37%∑ = 100% 35%∑ = 100% 32%∑ = 100% Segment of “Product" will slightly decline due to the weakening value component of a brand 5% 22% 35% 7% 25% 33% 10% 30% 28% p “EC” would take a part of “Modules” share due to increasing cost of technologies5% 7% 10% Semiconductor market structure, 2013EC market structure, 2013 technologies 93% 7% 29% 50% 100% 82% 79% 18% 50% 100%There is no significant amount of EC production in Russia which is a However, Russian microelectronics share is much lower compared 71% 0% Russia World 21% 82% 0% Russia World O l i di positive factor; EC are more profitable p to the World structure 5 Passive EC Semiconductors Optoelectronics, sensors, discretes Microelectronics Sources: Frost & Sullivan
- 6. so far … Provided outpacing growth of the domestic electronics industry Russia will have <1% by 20202020 The Russian EC market maintains its dependence on imports and oil price Russia engaged in medium margin segments without competing with China in theRussia engaged in medium-margin segments, without competing with China in the segment of passive EC, on the other hand - not having sufficient domestic market for development of microelectronics segmentp g Is it all points of growth …?p g 6
- 7. Global MEMS trends: growth due to new technologies and market-based solutionssolutions The projected CAGR of the global MEMS market will stay above the global EC market growth - about 13%*growth about 13% Current MEMS global market is about $ 12 Bn, and will exceed $ 20 Bn in 2018 A h lf f MEMS t h l i t th t f "I t d ti " d “G th“A half of MEMS technologies are at the stages of "Introduction" and “Growth“ 20 basic MEMS technologies: "Introduction" - 20%, "Development" - 30%, "Maturity" - 40%, "Decline" - 10% 3 key industry segments ("Consumer Electronics", "Automotive" and "Healthcare") ocupy 80- 85% of global MEMS market and this trend will continue within the next 5 years "Healthcare” will take a part of "Automotive“ share; "Consumer Electronics" will remain at the same level Note: * - The average price per a MEMS unit will decline by about 30% 7 about 30% Sources: Yole Développement, Frost & Sullivan
- 8. Russian MEMS trends: formation of the domestic market for MEMS starts at the background stagnating segmentsat the background stagnating segments Today the Russian market is represented in a form of imported preassembled modules with integrated MEMS-components There is no domestic mass-production of MEMS; and MEMS components are not supplied: 1) No national assembly modules, 2) assembled modules should not be repaired (module changes entirely) Structure of Russian MEMS market differs from the structure of the world MEMS market World MEMS: «Consumer Electronics", "Automotive" and "Health" - collectively more 80% Russian MEMS: «Automotive", “Military" and "Industrial Electronics" - collectively about 80% The main segment of the domestic MEMS market – "Automotive" is experiencing a serious decline " Automotive" - decline by 8% in 2014 (PwC forecast)Automotive - decline by 8% in 2014 (PwC forecast) 8 Sources: PwC, Frost & Sullivan
- 9. Frost & Sullivan ranked EC segments recommended for support and development in Russia based on the World trends and Russian market features Semiconductors Microelectronics Other semiconductors 3D; RFID; Аналоговые ИС Радиационностойкие (Rad-Hard) Высоконадежные (High-Rel) Optoelectronics : Цифровые матрицы с Sensors and actuators: Датчики давления (Pressure sensors) Discretes: Силовые транзисторы и модули 3D; RFID; Аналоговые ИС Цифровые матрицы с чувствительными элементами (CCD and CMOS image sensors) Лазерные передатчики и приемники (Laser transmitters and pickups) Твердотельное освещение и Датчики давления (Pressure sensors) Датчики ускорений и рысканья (Acceleration and yaw sensors) Датчики магнитного поля (Magnetic- field sensors) Микроэлектромеханические Силовые транзисторы и модули (Power transistors and modules) Слаботочные транзисторы (Small- signal transistors) Переключающие транзисторы (Switching transistors)Твердотельное освещение и светодиоды (Solid-state lamps and LEDs) Устройства инфракрасного диапазона (Infrared devices) Оптроны и оптические переключатели Микроэлектромеханические системы (MEMS) (Switching transistors) Диоды (Diodes) Выпрямители (Rectifiers) Тиристоры (Thyristors) ВЧ и СВЧ диоды, транзисторы и модули (RF and microwave diodesр р (Couplers and optical switchers) Цифровые визуальные индикаторы (Digital character display) Фотоэлектрические модули (Photovoltaic solar cells) модули (RF and microwave diodes, transistors and modules) Note: 1) - «First tier» 9 Оптоволоконные компоненты (Fiber- optic components) 2) - «Second tier» Sources: Frost & Sullivan
- 10. 10 arguments in favor of MEMS in Russia 1. MEMS market is growing faster than the World EC market 2 M j i f MEMS h l i h l Today MEMS leads at two percent, tomorrow - more "I d i " d "D l " i l d ½ MEMS2. Majority of MEMS technologies are at the early stages of lifecycle 3. Large range of possible applications in all industrial segments "Introduction" and "Development" include ½ MEMS technologies Examples: portable electronics, automotive, military, space, medicine, security, etc.seg e ts 4. MEMS technology opens up new design possibilities 5. The reduction in size leads to increased sensitivity of Mainly due to miniaturization, which allows to create entirely new products By reducing the inertia of a device mechanical elementsy the sensors based on MEMS 6. Greater reliability compared to the separate components By reducing the inertia of a device mechanical elements SoC reliable sets of multiple devices with the same functionality 7. MEMS technology allows to reduce power supply 8. The reduction in size leads to a reduction in the chip Low power consumption results in lower heat generation Additional cost savings through reducing consumption of expensive materialsarea 9. There is a sort of activity in MEMS in Russia 10 A ti MEMS i t t d l t f expensive materials Russian Association of MEMS, about 20 domestic organizations developing MEMS Att ti t MEMS ithi "D l t f t h l 10 10.Accounting MEMS in strategy development of Russian electronics industry Attention to MEMS within "Development of nanotechnology industry in the Russian Federation until 2015" Sources: Frost & Sullivan