1. The document discusses limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius as agreed upon in 2010.
2. It notes that to achieve this, all anthropogenic emissions from 2013 to 2100 must be limited to 260 gigatonnes of carbon.
3. At current emission trends, 247 additional gigatonnes of carbon will be emitted in just 21 years, far exceeding the 2 degree limit. Urgent action is needed to reduce emissions.
3. Earthhigh-level REALITIES +H +P = -R
1. No extraterrestrial imports except sunlight
For sustainable human development, half of all products
currently consumed should be imported to Earth.
Excepting freshwater, this would require 8.9 million
containers arriving on 1,800 extraterrestrial ships -
every day.
2. No extraterrestrial emigrations
To keep the current terrestrial human
population from increasing, 1 ferry
carrying 1,000 people would
have to leave Earth every
7 minutes - that’s
80 million
extraterrestrial
emigrations
per year.
entropy, usefulness made unavailable
closed mass system - finite resources
-H
+P
R
4. Homo sapiens - Science Politics Reality
My Planet
772
m forestland
702m grazingland
472
m cropland
202
m shrubland
182
m barrenland
80 meters
Clo
sed mass system Entropy- usefuln
essmadeunavailable
My Planet is very small - yours is too -
80 meters across, that’s the size of
the average human’s land and fresh-
water - 80 meters, to make every
thing, for all time.
My goal for my planet is another
5,000 years of civilizations, so my
Laws will be those of nature-science:
1. Don’t make Products-Babies
(closed mass, entropy, etc.).
2. If you must, make one, the best
(minimize mass-energy use) that lasts
and is shared (maximize time-space).
What laws will you make for your planet?...
5. 1 ATMOSPHERE science initiative
endorsed by eminent scientists from every discipline and part of the planet
(see partial list below), about whom IPCC Chair Dr. Rajendra Pachauri
wrote: 'In conclusion let me say I greatly admire what you are doing, which
makes you not only unique scientists but great leaders of human society."
Dr. Yuan Lee, Nobel Prize winner and President of the International Council for
Science (ICSU)
Dr. Olive Shisana, President of the International Social Sciences Council (ISSC)
Dr. Ivo Slaus, President of the World Academy of Arts and Sciences (WAAS)
Dr. Jacob Palis, I.P. President of The World Academy of Sciences (TWAS)
Dr. Mohamed Hassan, co-Chair Global Network of Academies of Science (IAP)
Dr. Daya Reddy, co-Chair of the InterAcademy Panel (IAC) (+ Pres SAAS)
Dr. Gunter Stock, President of All European Academies (ALLEA)
Dr Lars Walloe, President of the Academia Europaea
Dr. Won-Hoon Park, President of the Association of Academies and Societies of
Sciences in Asia (AASSA)
Dr. Ahmadou Ndiaye, President of the African Academy of Science (AAS)
Dr. Berhanu Abegaz, Executive Director of the African Academy of Science (AAS)
Dr. Robin Crewe, President of the Network of African Science Academies (NASAc)
Dr. Juan Asenjo, co-Chair InterAmerican Network of Academies of Science (IANAS)
Dr. Claudio Bifano, President Academia de Ciencias de America Latina (ACAL)
Dr. Keto Mshigeni, Vice President of The World Academy of Science (TWAS)
Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman, President of the Network of Academies of Sciences in Islamic
Countries (NASIC)
Dr. Abdel Salam Majali, President of the Islamic World Academy of Sciences (IAS)
Dr. Mouneef Zo'ubi, Secretary General Islamic World Academy of Sciences (IAS);
Dr. Trevor Alleyne, President of the Caribbean Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Dr. Nelson Moreno Ceballos, President of the Caribbean Scientific Union (CCC)
Dr. Kazu-yuki Tatsumi, President International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry
(IUPAC)
Dr. Alik T.Ismail-Zadeh, Secretary General of the International Union of Geodesy and
Geophysics (IUGG);
Dr. Nils Stenseth, President of the International Union of Biology (IUB)
Dr. Gregory Petsko, President International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular
Dr. Roland Oberhänsli President International Union of Geological Sciences
Dr. Michael Burawoy, President of the International Sociological Association (ISA)
Dr. Sathasivian Saths Cooper, President of the International Union of Psychological
Science (IUPsyS)
Dr. Andrew Spiegel, Vice President of the International Union of Anthropological and
Ethnological Sciences (IUAES)
Dr. Thomas Reuter, Founding chair World Council of Anthropological Associations
Dr. Roseanne Diab, Executive Officer Academy of Science South Africa (ASSAf)
Dr. Oyewale Tomori, President of the Nigerian Academy of Science (NAS)
Dr. Francis Allotey, President of the Ghana Academy of Arts & Sciences (GAAS)
Dr Ahmedou Ndiaye, President Senegal Academie des Sciences et Techniques (SAST)
Dr. Samuel Domngang, President of the Cameroon Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Dr. Rafael Munavu, President of the Kenya National Academy of Science (KNAS)
Dr. Ester Mwaikambo, President of the Tanzania Academy of Sciences (TAAS)
Dr. Demissie Habte, President of the Ethiopia Academy of Sciences (EAS)
Dr. Paul Mugambi, President of the Uganda National Academy of Sciences (UNAS)
Dr David Mutekanga, Executive Secr. Uganda National Academy of Sciences (UNAS)
Dr. Mwananyanda Mbikusita Lewanika, President Zambia Academy of Science (ZaAS)
Dr. Christopher Mutambirwa, President of the Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences (ZAS)
Dr. Rajaona Andriamananjara, President Madagascar National Academy of Arts, Letters
and Sciences
Dr. Jorg Hacker, President of the German Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nils Stenseth, President of the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters
Dr. Olavi Nevanllina, President of the Council of Finish Academies
Dr. Gunter Stock, President of the Union of German Academies of Sciences and
Humanities and President of the Berlin Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities
Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman, President of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences (PAS)
Dr. Sung Hyun Park, President Korean Academy of Science and Technology (KAST)
Dr. Mesbahuddin Ahmad, President Bangladesh Academy of Science (BAS)
Dr. Surendra Raj Kafle, Chancellor Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST)
Dr Batbold Enkhtuvshin, President of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences (MAS)
Dr Imad Khatib, Secretary General of the Palestine Academy of Sciences
Dr. Ruth Arnon, President of the Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities
Dr. William Padolina, President National Academy of Science and Technology Philippines
(NASTP)
Dr. James McCarthy, President of the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS)
Dr. Jacob Palis, President of the Brazilian Academy of Science (BAS)
Dr. Juan Asenjo, President of the Academia de Ciencias Chilena
Dr. Claudio Bifano, President of the Academia de Ciencias Fisicas, Matematicas and
Naturales Venezuala
Dr. José Franco, President Mexico Academia of Ciencias (MAC)
Dr. Enrique Acevedo, President of the Guatamala Academia de Ciencias, Medicas, Fisicas y
Naturales
Dr. Roberto Cignoli, President of the Academía Nacional de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y
Naturales Argentina
Dr. Milciades Mejia, President of the Dominican Republic Academia de Ciencias
Dr. Jorge A. Huete-Pérez, President Nicaraguan Academy of Sciences
Dr. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsacker, President Club of Rome
Dr. Bill McKibben, President 350.org
Dr Eric Chivian, recipient Nobel Peace Prize, Center for Health and Global Environment...
among many other eminent global scientists
Biology
10. we are part of the
problemLimit global warming to 2°C
solutionLimit our national emissions to 2°C
11. Dr. Rajendra Pachauri
IPCC Chair
65% of our carbon limit compatible with a 2°C goal already used
AR5 WGI SPM
Amount Used
1870-2011:
515
GtC
Amount
Remaining:
275
GtCTotal Carbon
Limit:
790
GtC
247
543
2014
69%
The window for action is rapidly closing
closed = 2035
1 Dec 2014 UNFCCC COP20
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
247,535,143,112,129
12. Science: CLIMATE CHANGE
is the urgent, defining, imperative
issue of our time - because it is
destabilization and destruction
of the life support system upon
which everything depends -
food, water, air, temperature,
health, safety, security, jobs,
economic growth, everything.
+ 8
+ 7
+ 6
+ 5
+ 4
+ 3
+ 2
+ 1
0.0
2°C
13. Dr. Thomas Stocker
IPCC co-chair
Physical Science
Dr. Reto Knutti
IPCC coordinating
lead author
Physical Science
Dr. Shreekant Gupta
IPCC coordinating
lead author
Mitigation
Dr. Youba Sokona
IPCC co-chair
Mitigation
Dr. Rajendra Pachauri
IPCC chair
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scientists
Solutions have been available
for 114 years! Act now...
2°C
H O
-+
1900: electric cars solar cells wind turbines hydro power geothermal energy hydrogen fuel cells
1900, a scientist wrote: “The Sun’s Powers gathered by photo-electric cells into electrical storehouses, the total extinction of combustion engines, filth and smoke - a Blessed Vision!”
14. THIS BABY WILL
LIVE TO BE
►It is science that brings our medicines
and our long life - and our smart phones,
computers, cars, planes, satellites, space
travel, nearly everything of modern life.
►And the same science now warns that
unless humanity stops emissions
now, we will destroy our life
support system upon which
everything depends - food
water, air, temperature, health,
safety, security, jobs, economic
growth, everything.
►So heed the doctors, the
scientists - get well, survive
and thrive, live long, happy
lives.
*because of SCIENCE -
knowledge, evidence, consensus.
Climate
change -
heed
doctors
scientists
+ 8
+ 7
+ 6
+ 5
+ 4
+ 3
+ 2
+ 1
0.0
2°C
15. UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2014
Limit global warming to 2°C*
2°C
*2010 COP16 Cancún agreements: future global warming should be limited to below 2°C (3.6°F)
relative to preindustrial level,“1.5°C dangerous destabilization” has already happened, see following.
+ 8
+ 7
+ 6
+ 5
+ 4
+ 3
+ 2
+ 1
0.0
16. For 2°C, limit all anthropogenic
emissions from now to 2100 to:
2°C
Climate change has
1 cause: emissions
1 solution: limit
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
247,535,143,196,781
17. 2°C
Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
247,535,143,197,764
18. 2°C
2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
solution
DRTHOMASSTOCKER
ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
27 Sep 2013
IPCC, approved by the governments of the world:
To likely limit global warming to 2°C over pre-
industrial levels, accounting for non-CO2 forcings,
limit all anthropogenic emissions to 260 gigatonnes
of carbon between 27 Sep 2013 and 2100.
Per human this means a limit of about 30,800 kgs in
emissions from consumption of goods and services.
problem
gigatonnes C
247,535,143,190,096
247
19. 1.5°C dangerous destabilization has already happened
To avoid catastrophe for everyone there is now 1 objective: 2°C
2°C
increasing 1 gigatonne every 34 days gigatonnes kilograms carbon
In 2013, COP19, concentrations
of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere were such, that
unless removed, 1.5°C global
warming will happen.
To likely limit global warming to 1.5°C,
emit nothing, & remove from the atmosphere
12,464,856,863,837
20. 2°C
It took about 155 years, 1860 to 2014, to put about 540 gigatonnes C in the atmosphere;
at current trends it will take a mere 21 years to put up another 247.
Cumulative emissions 1860 to now Cumulative emissions are
the cause of climate change
1860, President Abraham Lincoln
and officers, American Civil War
155 years - gigatonnes kg C
21 years - gigatonnes kg C
542,972,506,033,015
247,027,493,693,215
21. 2°C
1.1 million Eiffel Towers
1 gigatonne = 100,000 Eiffel Towers, every minute 2 Eiffel Towers are emitted
At current trends, from COP20 2014 to
COP21 2015, 11 gigatonnes of carbon
will be emitted, destabilizing
the human life support
system upon which
everything
depends.
From Lima to Paris in equivalent emissions C
gigatonnes kilograms C
247,027,493,696,520
22. ► every minute
20 million kg C emissions
► every hour
1.2 billion kg
► every day
30 billion kg
► every 34 days
1 gigatonne
► every year
11 gigatonnes
► in 21 years
247 gigatonnes -
time is up: 2°C
The clock is ticking
time is running out
2°C
,535,143,110,441247
23. United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change - Conference 2014
too much
realityPresentationMichael Wadleigh, scientist Oscar winner
247,535,143,159,962
24. 2°C
*2010 COP16 Cancún agreements: future global warming should be limited to below 2°C (3.6°F) relative to preindustrial level.
United Nations
Framework Convention on
Climate Change
For 20 years gas concentrations have not been stabilized,
dangerous interference has not been prevented, no progress
has been made toward the Objective, only regress...
There is only 1 objective
UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
To limit global warming to 2°C* limit emissions to
*COP16 gigatonnes kilograms carbon
247,535,143,143,736
25. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
• Emissions reached a new record high in 2013.
• Between 1990 and 2013 there was a 34%
increase in the warming effect on our climate.
• CO2 levels increased more between 2012 and
2013 than during any other year since UNFCCC
began, 1992.
• Far from falling, emissions increased last year
at the fastest rate since UNFCCC’s founding.
• We must reverse this trend, reign in the relent-
less rise by cutting emissions across the board,
which has not been done in the time of
UNFCCC.
• We are running out of time. There are only
about 20 years until there will be enough emis-
sions in the atmosphere, which if not removed
will cause 2°C warming.
• IPCC and WMO provide the science for deci-
sion making.
• We have the knowledge and the tools for
action to keep temperature increase within 2°C.
• Laws of physics are not negotiable, laws of
man are. Agree and limit emissions for 2°C
now.
• Give our children and grandchildren a future.
• Use the science. Pleading ignorance can no
longer be an excuse for not acting...
“Give our children a future... Pleading
ignorance can no longer be an excuse for
inaction... Laws of physics are not negotiable”
Dr Michel Jarraud
WMO Secretary General
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Long-lived greenhouse gases
CO21.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.0
Year
Radiativeforcing(W/m2
)
WMO 9 Sep 2014
26. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Long-livedgreenhousegases
UNFCCC
Conference
Year Location Negotiation Outcome Emission
Outcome
CO2 parts
per
million
Emission
Outcome
Gigatonnes
of Carbon
per year
Emission
Outcome
Limit for 2°C
Gigatonnes
of Carbon
COP 1 1995 Berlin Berlin Mandate 360 8 415
COP 2 1996 Geneva Geneva Ministerial Declaration Noted 362 8 407
COP 3 1997 Kyoto Kyoto Protocol 363 9 400
COP 4 1998 Buenos Aires Buenos Aires Plan of Action 365 8 391
COP 5 1999 Bonn Bonn Agreement 368 8 383
COP 6 2000 The Hague Bonn Agreements Consensus 369 8 375
COP 7 2001 Marrakesh Marrakesh Ministerial Declaration Adopted 370 8 367
COP 8 2002 Delhi Declaration on Climate Change & Sustainable Development 373 8 359
COP 9 2003 Milan Climate Change Fund & Least Development Countries Fund 375 8 351
COP 10 2004 Buenos Aires Complete Marrakesh Accords 377 9 343
COP 11 2005 Montreal Global Environmental Facility Guidelines 378 9 334
COP 12 2006 Nairobi Nairobi Framework Welcomed 381 9 325
COP 13 2007 Bali Bali Roadmap 382 10 316
COP 14 2008 Poznan Adaptation Fund 385 9 307
COP 15 2009 Copenhagen Copenhagen Accord 387 9 297
COP 16 2010 Cancun Cancun Agreements 389 10 288
COP 17 2011 Durban Durban Platform for Enhanced Action 391 10 278
COP 18 2012 Doha Doha Amendments to the Kyoto Protocol 393 11 268
COP 19 2013 Warsaw Warsaw Outcomes
Objective Progress ?
396 11 257
COP 20 2014 Lima 400 11 247
1.5°C
GHG concentra-
tions likely reached
in 2013
UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
27. Islamic State Ebola
Immigration
Recession
2°C
“Terrorism, instability,
inequality, disease - there is
one issue that will define this
century, the catastrophe of
climate change...” and we
do nothing to stop it.
There is 1 Objective
Destabilization
29. ALIVE DEAD
2°C is the difference between life and death.
Save your child’s life - get the temperature
down now: the medicine: 1 kg C per
person per day to 2100 - now 4 kg.
Life threatening emergency
400% over limit >
100% on limit
+ 8
+ 7
+ 6
+ 5
+ 4
+ 3
+ 2
+ 1
0.0
2°C
°F
°C37
98.6
40
104
1 kg C
/ cap
/ day
to 2100
2°C
247,535,143,109,130
30. 2°C
°F
°C37
98.6
40
104
makes all the difference in life: 37°C is normal
human temperature, 40°C is death.
247 gigatonnes of emissions is a lot: 1 kilogram
of carbon per person per day from now until 2100,
86 years.
1 kg C
/ cap
/ day
to 2100
31. Listen to the best scientists: climate change is deadly,
life-threatening. To limit
the change to 2°C,
limit emissions per
person per day to
1 kg C between
now and 2100.
1 kg C
/ cap
/ day
to 2100
400
%
overlimit
2°C
247,535,143,149,458
32. UN Climate Conference 2014
2°CPeru cannot, Peru must not fail - if we
continue as we are, climate change will be
a catastrophe. UNFCCC has 1 Objective:
Opening ceremony
The Objective reality is that for 20 years we
have not stabilized emissions - but the greater
reality is that highly profitable solutions have
been available for decades - to build a non-
emission, non-destruction economy that can
last for centuries. Now finally let’s do it...
TO SUCCEED ADMIT FAILURE
UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
To limit global warming to 2°C* limit emissions to
*COP16 gigatonnes kilograms carbon
COP20 President
Manuel Pulgar-Vidal
247,535,143,141,743
33. There is 1 Objective
STABILIZATION
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
DE-STABILIZATIONgigatonnes C per year long-lived greenhouse gases
+8
+8
+9
+8
+8
+8
+8
+8
+9
+9
+9
+9
+10
+9
+9 +10 +10 +11 +11 +11 ?
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
COP 20
+ 10 ?
+ 9 ?
+ 8 ?
COP
2°C
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
Humanity is 400% over limit
for 2°C, zero is 2035, 21 years.
At current trends +1.1%/yr emission increase:
247,535,143,140,562
34. Guide to Lima COP20: there is 1 Objective
UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
To limit global warming to 2°C* limit emissions to
400% over limit - zero 2035 *COP16 gigatonnes kilograms carbon
2°C
Lima cannot,
must not fail.
Forests
Cities
Oceans
Gender Adaptation
Health
Indiginous
Finance
MountainsRenewables
Jobs IndustryAgriculture
Poverty
Economy
Water
Efficiency Energy
247,535,143,141,386
35. Guide to UNFCCC: there is 1 Objective2°C
Forests
Cities
Oceans
Gender Adaptation
Health
Indiginous
Finance
MountainsRenewables
Jobs IndustryAgriculture
Poverty
Economy
Water
Efficiency Energy
stabilize gases
prevent danger
400% over limit 2°C emission limit gigatonnes kg C
247,535,143,140,253
36. 2°C
Emissions of 193 nations must
add up to 1 global limit for 2°C.
At current trends +1.1%/yr emission increase:
Humanity is 400% over limit,
zero is 2035, only 21 years.
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
EMISSION LIMIT
2°C
I’m for
Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General
gigatonnes C
247,535,143,195,727
247
37. 2°C
193 Gross National Incomes
add up to 1 Global $GNI.
Humanity’s economy is
growing 2.2% per year. ECONOMIC GROWTH
I’m for
Global Gross National Income
$ increasing 2.2% /yr
$99+trillion
99,342,602,450,348
38. 2°C
President Barack Obama
United States
Chancelor Angela Merkel
Germany
Prime Minister Narendra Modi
India
President Xi Jinping
China
President Goodluck Jonathan
Nigeria
My
GNI /cap is
$ 52,308
My
GNI /cap is
$ 43,049
My
GNI /cap is
$ 11,477
My
GNI /cap is
$ 5,150
My
GNI /cap is
$ 5,353
Global Gross National Income
$
193 Gross National
Incomes add up to
1 Global $GNI
Humanity:
$13,723 GNI /cap,
economic growth
2.2% per year
increasing 2.2% /yr
VoicesVoices99,342,602,451,169
39. 2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
Emissions of 193 nations
must add up to 1 global
limit for 2°C.
Humanity is 400%
over limit, zero is
2035, only 21 years.
President Barack Obama
United States
Chancelor Angela Merkel
Germany
Prime Minister Narendra Modi
India
President Xi Jinping
China
President Goodluck Jonathan
Nigeria
I’m
888%
over limit
for 2oC
I’m
468%
over limit
for 2oC
I’m
134%
over limit
for 2oC
I’m
30%
of the limit
for 2oC
I’m
1,398%
over limit
for 2oC
VoicesVoices,535,143,182,371247
40. “America’s priority
is jobs, economic
growth.”
If a dome were put over America, US emissions
are so great that at current trends atmospheric
gas concentrations causing 2°C warming would
happen in just 6 years, 2020 - then rapidly 4°C,
8°C warming, the end of the US as we know it.
If high per capita emitting countries could not
export their emissions and had to “stew in their
own juices”, it seems certain they would stop
their climate changing emissions immediately.
What if there were
no emission exports?
Stewing in one’s
own juices
2°C
41. No emission imports
If a dome had been put over Africa a
few years ago to protect it from
emissions from other continents,
African emissions are so
small that global warming
might never happen there.
Of course there is no
dome - and disastrous
climate changes are
already happening to
Africans, the deaths
and destructions are
caused by other
nations’ exported
emissions...
42. 2°C
Energy use is the principle source
of climate changing emissions.
• By 1900 solar cells, wind turbines,
hydro power, geothermal energy,
hydrogen fuel cells, electric cars
(to name a few) were all in use.
• In 1990, 90 years later all solar,
wind, hydro, geothermal NON-
emitting energy had risen to be
only a very small 3% of total
primary energy supply (tpes).
• Currently, extraordinarily, all
global solar-wind-hydro-geo
energy remains just 3% of tpes:
a zero increase in 25 years.
• In 1990 NON-emitting nuclear
energy was 6%, currently it has
fallen to just 5% of tpes.
• This means that currently global
coal, oil, gas, bio* EMITTING
energy has risen to be an over-
whelming 92% of global tpes.
* Bio energy, 10% tpes, as practiced is
NOT sustainable with substantial
emission, pollution and health hazards.
coal 29% oil 32% gas 21% bio 10%*
EMITTING energy 92% tpes (25 years)
solar wind hydro geo 3% nuclear 5%
NON-EMITTING energy 8% tpes
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
2°C
1900
247,535,143,185,323
43. To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
2°C
Climate change has
1 cause: emissions
1 solution: limit.
coal 29% oil 32% gas 21% bio 10%
EMITTING energy 92% tpes
solar wind hydro geo 3%
NON-EMITTING energy 8% tpes
for humanity
President Barack Obama
United States
Chancelor Angela Merkel
Germany
Prime Minister Narendra Modi
India
President Xi Jinping
China
President Goodluck Jonathan
Nigeria
2%
My
solar-wind-
hydro-geo is
3%
My
solar-wind-
hydro-geo is
3%
My
solar-wind-
hydro-geo is
2%
My
solar-wind-
hydro-geo is
1%
My
solar-wind-
hydro-geo is
nuclear 5%
VoicesVoices247,535,143,180,547
44. EMISSION REDUCTION NOW example:
► In just 5 years, high technology pro-
duction of US WWII aircraft increased
from 2,141 to 96,318 per year, 4,500%.
► The war was won - the world’s most
advanced, high tech economy was built.
► The same can happen now - rapidly
build an innovative, robust, inexhaust-
ible, renewable economy that will last.
solar wind hydro geo nuclearNON-EMISSION ENERGY
PISTOL
PACKIN
MAMAS
1,400%
over 2°C limit,
my non-emitting
energy is only 10%
No problem!
Increase
non-emitting energy
only 1,200%!
2°C
ROSIE
RIVETERS
247,535,143,150,107
45. 2°C
►Combustion, emission coal-oil-gas-bio energy -
the principle cause of climate change - currently
causes nearly a half million deaths per year
from extreme weather-temperature, floods,
storms, food-water shortages, disease increase,etc.
►Additionally coal-oil-gas-bio energy accidents
cause thousands of deaths each year.
►Long-life climate changing gases last thousands of
years - and 14.9 million times more “waste” just in
CO2, to Carbon-Capture-Store, than nuclear since 1960.
coal oil gas bio
92%: emitting energy
nuclear
5%: non-emitting energy
Nuclear vs coal-oil-gas-bio energy
419,000+ 0
70
deaths per year -
radiation, etc.
►Non-combustion, non-emission
nuclear energy causes no
climate change deaths.
►Since its inception in 1960,
nuclear energy has caused an
average of 70 deaths per year
due to accidents, radiation.
►Long-life radiation lasts
thousands-millions of years - but
a fraction of the “waste” of CO2.
climate change deaths per year
46. 2°C
All climate actions must add up to 1 global emission limit for 2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
& Forests
INCLUSION ENERGY
30,600 Peruvians provided with solar.
Fight energy poverty.
Forests
Cities
Oceans
Gender Adaptation
Health
Indiginous
Finance
MountainsRenewables
Jobs IndustryAgriculture
Poverty
Economic
Growth
Water
Efficiency
There is 1
Objective:
stabilization
Energy
247,535,143,188,955
47. To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
• UN “Very High Developed” live 21 years longer, have 2.8
times the education, 32 times the money - and caused an
extraordinary 73 times the emissions of Low Developed.
• 16.6% of humanity - the best educated, healthiest,
wealthiest, the Highest Developed - cause 62% of
cumulative emissions, the cause of climate change.
• The 16% Least Developed humans cause a miniscule
0.8%.
• 57% of humanity - in 141 African, Latin American and
Southern Asian countries - cause only 21% of emissions.
High - Medium - Low Developed
Michael Bloomberg
United States
Ban Ki-moon
South Korea
Mary Robinson
Ireland
John Kufour
Ghana
Barack Obama
United States
Angela Merkel
Germany
Narendra Modi
India
Xi Jinping
China
Goodluck Jonathan
Nigeria
Very High Developed
“Very High Developed” are 977% over limit
Very High
Development
VoicesVoices
247,535,143,178,142
48. Envoy Michael Bloomberg
United States
UN Sec.Gen. Ban Ki-moon
South Korea
Envoy Mary Robinson
Ireland
Envoy John Kufour
Ghana
Donation
day: $.27 + 14 kg
year: $100 + 4,962 kg
Donation
day: $.10 + 11 kg
year: $36 + 3,934 kg
Donation
day: $.50 + 9 kg
year: $182 + 3,274 kg
to
adapt to
Very High
emissions:
1/4 of 1
cent per
person
I
donate 14 kgs
and 27 cents
each day
I
donate 11 kgs
and 10 cents
each day
I
donate 9 kgs
and 50 cents
each day
I
receive 1/4
of 1 cent
each day
Each day on average UN “Very High Developed”
donate 36 cents in total “Official Development
Assistance”, plus a “donation” of 10 kilograms
of climate changing emissions (see data / maps).
Each day for climate change “compensation”,
the “Most Vulnerable and Exposed”, including
Africans, receive 1/4 of one cent per person
from the Very High Developed. This may
increase 10 fold (to $100 billion), each person
will then get 2.5 cents per day.
Emissions and Money
2°C
VoicesVoices
49. China India Nigeria Brazil Germany EU28 Humanity
Human Development - UNDP 2014 Very High High Medium Low High Very High Very High
Education - school expectancy 16.5 years 12.9 years 11.7 years 9.0 years 15.2 years 16.3 years 16.1 years 12.2 years
Health - life expectancy 78.9 years 75.3 years 66.4 years 52.5 years 73.9 years 80.7 years 80.1 years 70.8 years
Living standards - $ GNI / year $ 52,308 $ 11,477 $ 5,150 $ 5,353 $ 14,275 $ 43,049 $ 33,844 $ 13,723
Emissions cumulative - kgs / cap
Emission limit 2oC - % of limit1 1,398% 468% 134% 30% 195% 888% 745% 401%
Emission limit 2oC - year limit zero1 2020 2033 2081 2315 2060 2023 2025 2035
Non-emitting energy - % tpes2 10% > 12% 1% > 4% 2% > 3% 0.6% > 0.4% 6% > 14% 12% > 11% 14% > 17% 9% > 8%
Solar-Wind-Hydro-Geo 2% > 2% 1% > 3% 2% > 2% 1% > 0.4% 0% > 1% 0% > 3% 2.3% > 3.6% 3% > 3%
Nuclear 8% > 10% 0% > 1% 0.5% > 1% 0% > 0% 6% > 13% 11% > 8% 12% > 13.5% 6% > 5%
Emitting energy - % tpes2 90% > 88% 99% > 96% 98% > 97% 99% > 99.6% 94% > 86% 88% > 89% 86% > 83% 91% > 92%
Bio 3% > 4% 23% > 7% 42% > 23% 80% > 81% 44% > 29% 1% > 9% 3% > 8% 10% > 10%
Gas 23% > 27% 2% > 4% 3% > 6% 5% > 9% 0% > 9% 15% > 21% 18% > 23% 19% > 21%
Oil 40% > 37% 13% > 17% 20% > 23% 16% > 9% 46% > 43% 36% > 34% 38% > 34% 37% > 32%
Coal 24% > 20% 61% > 67% 33% > 45% 0% > 0% 3% > 5% 36% > 25% 27% > 18% 25% > 29%
Energy total primary supply - Mtoe 1,915 > 2,171 865 > 2,922 318 > 794 67 > 134 82 > 293 357 > 323 1,667 > 1,683 8,774 > 13,172
195 national emission
limit laws must add up
to the 1 global limit
To limit global warming
to 2oC limit emissions to
Humanity is 400% over limit1, zero is 2035, energy supply is 92% emittives2
decreasing emission limit gigatonnes kilograms carbon1
1IPCC & 195 governments: To likely limit global warming to 2
o
C above preindustrial levels, limit emissions
to 260 gigatonnes 2013-2100. Above in real-time is the limit now. To be on-limit, emissions should be minus
3% per year; however at current trends, plus 1.1%, zero will be reached, not in 2100 but in 2035, only 21 years
from now. Humanity is 396% over limit to likely limit global warming to 2
o
C. Per human this means a limit
of about 30,800 kilograms of carbon emissions from consumption of goods and services, 2013- 2100.
2The 1st number is 1990 % of total primary energy supply (tpes), the 2nd number is current % tpes: for 25 years
total primary energy supply has been a miniscule 3% solar-wind-hydro-geo non-emitting energy; plus currently
5% nuclear non-emitting energy, plus an overwhelming 92% coal-oil-gas-bio emitting energy, the principal
cause of climate change. Note: bio energy as practiced is not sustainable with substantial emission, pollution and
health hazards; carbon capture & storage, geoengineering, etc. are not yet significant / realities - and may never be.
1
E
mission Lim
it
1
A
tmosphe
re
195 Countries USA
Medium
Emissions consumption - kgs/cap/yr1
(1990>
2012)
(1990>
2012)
2°C “Pragmatic and practical...
The goal is to know what
national emissions are...
The essential task is to
transform energy from high
to low carbon... in developed
and developing countries.”
Todd Stern, US Special
Envoy on Climate Change
247,535,143,117,601
317,728 32,886 9,636 4,366 17,724 283,761 324,967 50,529
25,907 28,995 30,266 30,015 29,980 27,177 27,488 29,253
50. “If every Chinese lives like Americans, it will be a disaster for the world.”
Dr. Dahe Qin, co-chair Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WGI, Physical Science
62 persons / auto
Human development: living standards - climate changing emissions
1
Cumulative emissions per capita / 2
Emissions from consumption of goods & services, limit remaining for 2oC per capita - in kg/mgC
Americans Chinese Indians
20
50
living standard 1
Very High Developed set
the standards all follow
Per capita: $ GNI ► Emissions
Solutions
1
2
1
2
VoicesVoices
317,728,026,507,796 32,886,022,037,680 9,636,386,197,194
25,907,158,807,784 28,995,498,042,963 30,266,869,473,463
51. 2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
Emissions of 193 nations
must add up to 1 global
limit for 2°C.
Humanity is 400%
over limit, zero is
2035, only 21 years.
President Barack Obama
United States
I’m
1,398%
over limit
for 2°C
President Xi Jinping
China
I’m
468%
over limit
for 2°C
VoicesVoices
US-China sign historic emission pledge
Americans will cut emissions 26%-28% by 2025 com-
pared to 2005, Chinese will peak emissions by 2030.
12 Nov 2014
No mention of 2°C or 247 GtC limit, what do the pledges mean?:
►America’s over limit will go down 198%, from 1,398% to 1,200%.
►China’s over limit will go up 82%, from 468% to 550%.
►US will reach its emission limit not in 2100 but 2021, China in 2028.
►By 2025 Americans, 4.5% of the population, will have emitted 7%
of the global limit for humanity to last till 2100 in just 11 years.
►By 2030 Chinese, 19% of the population, will have emitted 23%
of the global limit for humanity to last till 2100 in just 16 years.
►By 2025 US, 4.5%, will have emitted 16 gigatonnes of carbon.
►By 2030 China, 19%, will have emitted 51 gigatonnes of carbon.
1,200% 550%
,535,143,182,371247
52. Agreement =
Lima COP20 Climate Conference 2014
Outcome
2°CLimit =
= emission limit for 2°C
gigatonnes kilograms carbon247,535,143,176,167
53. 2°C
Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
EMISSIONBOARD
247,535,143,197,764
54. 2°C
Cumulative emissions per capita in tons Carbon (tC)(from energy use by 2013)
18% of humanity cause 71% of emissions, 267 GtC, >80 tC / cap, 46 countries
30% of humanity cause 21% of emissions, 78 GtC, 23-79 tC / cap, 44 countries
30% of humanity cause 6% of emissions, 23 GtC, 7-22 tC / cap, 33 countries
22% of humanity cause 1% of emissions, 4 GtC, <9 tC / cap, 60 countries
18%
▼
71%
30%
▼
21%
30%
▼
6%
22%
▼
1%
155 years
21 years
It took about 155 years, 1860 to 2014,
to put about 540 gigatonnes in the atmo-
sphere; at current trends it will take a
mere 21 years to put up another 250.
Cumulative emissions
KILO-micrograms per capita
KILO-micrograms per capita
KILO-micrograms per capita
KILO-micrograms per capita
18%
cause 71%
Cumulative emissions are
the cause of climate change,
here they are per capita
22%
cause 1%
of cumulative /
historic emissions
of cumulative /
historic emissions
Cumulative emissions
from fossil fuels & cement, total 1860 to
present (in GIGATONNES-kilograms)
542,972,505,838,557
247,027,493,657,912
542,972,506,035,141
211,937,789,642,376
38,934,497,723,104
3,171,680,146,487
11,718,578,538,870
55. 2°C
18%
▼
45%
30%
▼
40%
30%
▼
13%
22%
▼
2%*Emission limit for 2°C
► HUMANITY: 195 governments
and IPCC: to likely limit global
warming to 2°C accounting
for non-CO2 forcings, limit emis-
sions to 260 gigatonnes of carbon,
27 Sep 2013 to 2100.
► PER HUMAN this means a limit
of about 30,800 kilograms of carbon
emissions from combustion of fuels
flaring and cement, 27 Sep 2013 to 2100.
18% cause an extraordinary 45% of emissions,
48% cause 85% of emissions,
22% cause a very small 2% of emissions, no climate change at all,
52% cause only 15 % of emissions, no dangerous climate change.
18%
cause 45%
zero 04.Apr.2023
950% over limit
zero 23.Oct.2031
494% over limit
zero 28.Jan.2069
160% over limit
Climate change has
1 cause: emissions
1 solution: limit - for 2°C
30,800 kgs C per human
27 Sep 2013 to 2100
2°C emission limit per capita from territorial combustion of fuel & cement*
22%
cause 2%
of territorial emissions from
fuels, flaring & cement
of territorial emissions
from fuel, flaring & cement
Emissions from consumption of goods & services per capita
18% of humanity cause 45% of emissions, 950% over 2oC limit, zero 2023, 39 countries
30% of humanity cause 40% of emissions, 412% over 2oC limit, zero 2035, 44 countries
30% of humanity cause 13% of emissions, 138% over 2oC limit, zero 2077, 33 countries
22% of humanity cause 2% of emissions, 51% of 2oC limit, zero 2183, 72 countries
KILO-micrograms per capita
zero 26.Dec.2266
35% of limit
KILO-micrograms per capita
KILO-micrograms per capita
KILO-micrograms per capita
“Zero” means that at current trends the
allotted 30,800 kgs C per cap 2013 to 2100
will be emitted by the year indicated.
(limits are counting down)
26,819,986,026,207
28,716,234,613,240
30,623,572,804,345
30,104,534,063,508
56. Deaths caused by climate
change emissions / emittors
in 2010 (from DARA):
► 419,000 total climate change
deaths per year for humanity;
► 82% or 161 DPM (Deaths Per Million)
are in RED countries;
► 14.0%, 46 DPM are in ORANGE countries;
► 3.7%, 11 DPM are in YELLOW countries;
► 0.1%, 0.1 DPM are in PINK countries -
Those who cause
climate change
die the least -
those who don’t
die the most.
greater than 100, average 161 DPM
between 18 & 100, average 46 DPM
between 5 & 18, average 11 DPM
less than 5, average 0.1 DPM
20%
▼
4%
Climate Change DPM (Deaths Per Million):
Climate change
death map
30%
▼
82%
20%
▼
14%
30%
▼
0.1%
419,000 deaths
per year, 96% in RED
and ORANGE countries
400%
over limit
zero 2035
21 years
2°C247,535,143,132,390
57. 2°C
Humanity’s cumulative emissions in KgC
29,400,000,000 kgs added per day
Humanity’s emission limit for 2oC in KgC
zero is 2035, 394% over limit
96.5%
vs
3.5%
by Africans
If all African
emissions were eliminated,
97% of global emissions
would still remain -
and destroy
everyone’s future
Climate change -
1 cause: emissions,
1 solution: limit -
Climate change solution: emission limit
African countries
especially must “keep their eyes on
the prize” - money from high per capita
emitters will NOT stop climate change
catastrophe - destruction of the life
support system - emission reduction
by high per capita emitters will.
Africans 15% of humanity, 56 countries:
3.5% of consumption emissions, 82% of the limit for 2oC
2.5% of cumulative emissions, 10 tC per African
cumulative emissions per African
Africans
emissions from consumption per capita limit
cumulative emissions per non African
Rest of humanity
emissions from consumption per capita limit
85.0%
▼
96.5% / 97.5%
15.0%
▼
3.5% / 2.5%
542,972,506,032,591 247,027,493,701,010
18,357,75728,9
61,9 64,374,111
30,4 18,976,975
9,8 04,264,247
58. 2°C
24%
▼
9.5% / 6.5%
9%
▼
5.5% / 4.0%
15%
▼
3.5% / 2.6%
Africans + Latins 24% of humanity, 87 countries:
9.0% of consumption emissions, 137% over limit 2oC
6.5% of cumulative emissions, 15 tC per African Latin
91.0%
vs
3.5% by Africans
5.5% by Latins
9.0% by AfricanLatins
If all African
and all Latin American
consumption emissions were
eliminated, 91% of global
emissions would still
remain - and destroy
everyone’s future
Climate change -
1 cause: emissions,
1 solution: limit -
Blue-green countries
especially must “keep their eyes on
the prize” - money from high per capita
emitters will NOT stop climate change
catastrophe -destruction of the life
support system - emission reduction
by high per capita emitters will.
Africans 15% of humanity, 54 countries:
3.5% of consumption emissions, 84% of the limit for 2oC
2.6% of cumulative emissions, 10 tC per African
Latin Americans 9% of humanity, 44 countries:
5.5% of consumption emissions, 234% over limit for 2oC
4.0% of cumulative emissions, 25 tC per Latin American
cumulative emissions per Latin American
Latin Americans
emissions from consumption per capita limit
cumulative emissions per African
Africans
emissions from consumption per capita limit
cumulative emissions per African Latin American
Africans + Latin Americans
emissions from consumption per capita limit
Humanity’s cumulative emissions in KgC
29,400,000,000 kgs added per day
Humanity’s emission limit for 2oC in KgC
zero is 2035, 394% over limit
Climate change solution: emission limit
cumulative emissions non African-Latin American
Rest of humanity
emissions from consumption per capita limit
542,972,506,032,591 247,027,493,701,010
28,8 21,361,124
66,1 15,984,889
30,4 18,976,983
9,8 04,264,246
83,085,20929,7
22,2 07,366,234
03,797,09229,9
15,9 53,181,030
59. Southern Asians 33% of humanity, 41 countries:
11.7% of consumption emissions, 130% over limit 2oC
6.2% of cumulative emissions, 11 tC per Southern Asian
Africans 15% of humanity, 56 countries:
3.5% of consumption emissions, 82% of the limit for 2oC
2.5% of cumulative emissions, 10 tC per African
Latin Americans 9% of humanity, 44 countries:
5.5% of consumption emissions, 234% over limit for 2oC
4.0% of cumulative emissions, 25 tC per Latin American
These countries
especially must “keep their eyes on
the prize” - money from high per capita
emitters will NOT stop climate change
catastrophe -destruction of the life
support system - emission reduction
by high per capita emitters will.
33%
▼
11.7% / 6.2%
2°C
57% - 140 countries
▼
20.7% / 12.7%
9%
▼
5.5% / 4.0%
15%
▼
3.5% / 2.5%
If all of African, Latin
& Southern Asian
consumption emissions were
eliminated, 79% of global
emissions would still
remain - and destroy
everyone’s future
Climate change -
1 cause: emissions,
1 solution: limit -
“South” (all above) 57% of humanity, 141 countries:
20.7% of consumption emissions, 133% over limit 2oC
12.7% of cumulative emissions, 13 tC per Southerner
cumulative emissions per Latin American
Latin America
emissions from consumption per capita limit
cumulative emissions per African
Africa
emissions from consumption per capita limit
cumulative emissions per Southern Asian
SouthernAsia
emissions from consumption per capita limit
79.3%
vs
3.5% by Africans
5.5% by Latins
11.7% by South Asians
20.7% total
Humanity’s cumulative emissions in KgC
29,400,000,000 kgs added per day
Humanity’s emission limit for 2oC in KgC
zero is 2035, 394% over limit
Climate change solution: emission limit
cumulative emissions non African-Latin-Asian
Rest of humanity
emissions from consumption per capita limit
542,972,506,032,591 247,027,493,701,010
28,8 21,361,124
66,1 15,984,889
29,9 03,797,092
15,9 53,181,030
83,085,20929,7
30,4 18,976,983
07,366,23422,2
04,264,2469,8
60. 2°C
gigatonneskilograms C
Cumulative emissions are the cause of
climate change.
USA
Germany
UK
China
India
Nigeria
Humanity
Humanity onlimit2°C
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
1,398%
888%
795%
468%
134%
30%
400%
100%
2
6
3
83
121
140
66
605%
530%
583%
60%
17%
9%
100%
323tC
283tC
312tC
32tC
9tC
5tC
53tC
Lawmaking cumulative / H ►%avg ►rank % of 2oC limit
Cumulative emissions per human (shown in micrograms), the others in the top 8 rank: #1 Luxembourg, #4 Belgium , #5 Czech Rep, #7 Estonia, #8 Trinidad & Tobago
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
155 years
21 years
It took about 155 years, 1860 to 2014,
to put about 540 gigatonnes in the atmo-
sphere, at current trends it will take a
mere 21 years to put up another 250.
Emissions:
cumulative / historic per human
counting up began 1860
543,073,661,268,221 542,972,505,839,394
247,027,493,667,917
323,170,402,051,916
283,015,022,290,402
311,608,321,197,871
31,889
9,001
,427,358,137
4,654
,804,920,833
53,470
,538,509,842
52,264
,766,159,566
,059,139,731
62. To finance
limiting emissions to 2°C, use
the established economic science
principle of proportionality: income/
consumption/emissions - tax - are
proportionally related per capita.
77%
14%
4%
3%
2%
Richest
propo
rtional
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Poorest
Tax $
Emission
Consumption
Income
per capita
$ financing 2°C
Tax $
Solutions
$
2°C
GNI increasing 2.2% /yr
income
99,342,602,450,348
63. economic growth
2°C
$ global gross national income increasing 2.2% /yr
problem
solution
cost: 0.06% growth > regained !
preserve the life support system 2°C emission limit gigatonnes kilograms C
99,342,602,449,210
247,027,493,694,004
64. 2°C
Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon“It is a race against time.”François Hollande,
President France
“Everything must be done to
reduce emissions radically…
to limit global warming to
below 2°C.”
Humanity is 400% over limit,
zero is 2035, only 21 years.
Solutions have been available
for decades, act now.
247,535,143,197,764
66. Bruce Springsteen
i am part of the
problemLimit global warming to 2°C
Limit my national emissions to 2°C
solution
67. problem
i am part of the
solutionLimit global warming to 2°C Limit my national emissions to 2°C
68. we are part of the
problem / solutionlimit global warming to 2°C limit our national emissions to 2°C
69. Best educated,
healthiest, wealthiest,
highest emitters
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
76. OUTCOME
AGREEMENT =
2°C LIMIT =
= emission limit for 2°C
gigatonneskilograms carbon
UN Climate Conference 2014
247,535,143,179,293
77. UN Climate Change Conference
• PARTIES
Negotiations
Venue
2°C
Emissions of 196 Parties must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
Mountains
& Water
Forests Sustainable
Cities
Energy OceansObservers
& Press
Indiginous
Peoples
• VOICES
Knowledge
Pavilions
UNFCCC objective:
stabilization gases
prevention danger247,535,143,149,700
78. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
(do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years)
approved by the governments of the world
updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC
Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C
Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
Jose Barroso, EC President
23 Sep 2014
“IPCC scientists tell us that
2°C is possible - but only if
we get serious... and lead. It is
a test we cannot afford to fail.”
79. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
(do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years)
approved by the governments of the world
updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC
Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C
Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
Jean-Claude Juncker,
EC President
“I want the European Union
to lead the fight against
global warming… We owe
this to future generations.”
80. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
François Hollande,
President France
“Everything must be done to
reduce emissions radically…
to limit global warming to
2°C... to give the world’s
young people hope.” 23 Sep 2014
(do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years)
approved by the governments of the world
updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC
Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C
Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
81. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
Angela Merkel,
Chancellor Germany
“To limit global warming to
less than 2°C we need to act
quickly and decisively... it
is quite literally a question
of survival...”
(do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years)
approved by the governments of the world
updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC
Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C
Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
82. “When offered clear scientific
advice… to safeguard the long-
term future of our planet and
our people, we should seize it.”
DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
David Cameron,
UK Prime Minister
23 Sep 2014
(do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years)
approved by the governments of the world
updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC
Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C
Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
83. “We cannot condemn
our children... We know
what we have to do to
avoid irreparable harm.”
DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
Barack Obama,
US President
23 Sep 2014
(do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years)
approved by the governments of the world
updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC
Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C
Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
84. we are part of the
problemLimit global warming to 2°C
solutionLimit our national emissions to 2°C
86. 2°C
Emission limit now to limit global warming to 2°C
Gigatonnes kilograms Carbon GtC
EMISSION RATE
• The rate of climate change is increasing not
decreasing: GHG emissions growth in the last
decade, 2000-2010, was larger than in the
previous 3 decades, +2.2%/yr vs +1.3%/yr.
• Far from falling, atmospheric CO2 increased
last year at the fastest rate for nearly 30 years.
1990 20352014
0
250
450
1860:790GtC*
Greenhousegasemissions
EMISSION LIMIT 2°C
• 1860-1990, 130 years, 340 GtC* emitted
• 1990-2014, 25 years, 200 GtC emitted - an unmitigated disaster
• 2014-2035, 21 years, 250 GtC at current trends = +2°C
*GtC, gigatonnes of carbon
NON-EMISSION ENERGY
• 1900-1990, 90 years, 0 > 3% solar-wind-hydro-geo tpes
• 1990-2014, 25 years, 3% solar-wind-hydro-geo, no increase
• 1990-2014, 25 years, 6% nuclear declined to 5%
• 2014 EMITTING ENERGY: 92%
IN SUM
• 1990-2014 is an unmitigated disaster
• Solutions have been in place for decades
• To prevent catastrophe act now...
247,535,143,185,451
87. prof
itable
solutions Limiting global warming
to 2°C is highly profitable
► Economic growth is initially
reduced by only 0.06%, from
projected 1.6 - 3% growth.
► -0.06% is delayed growth,
benefits then increase building
a non-combustion, non-emitting,
robust, high technology economy
that will last. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
<2°C
2°C
only 0.06% growth required
GNI
$
increasing 2.2% /yr
99,342,602,450,348