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. Nature, the entire physical world, natural Resources (R);
. Nature, very highly organized: H. sapiens (H);
. Nature, modified/disorganized by H. sapiens: Products (P);
+P +H = -R, -P -H = R, R+P / H, etc.
Nature
Darwin
Resources
Humans
Products
closedmasssyste
m
(ΔU+pΔV)/T≥ΔQ/T=ΔS
nature
selects
unfit don’
tsurvice
Laws
Nature
Man
Products
closedmasssyste
m
(ΔU+pΔV)/T≥ΔQ/T=ΔS
Einstein
In any contest with nature, man will
loose. The laws of man must obey the
laws of nature - which science discovers.
inanyc
ontest with science
politics
willloose
Earthhigh-level REALITIES +H +P = -R
1. No extraterrestrial imports except sunlight
For sustainable human development, half of all products
currently consumed should be imported to Earth.
Excepting freshwater, this would require 8.9 million
containers arriving on 1,800 extraterrestrial ships -
every day.
2. No extraterrestrial emigrations
To keep the current terrestrial human
population from increasing, 1 ferry
carrying 1,000 people would
have to leave Earth every
7 minutes - that’s
80 million
extraterrestrial
emigrations
per year.
entropy, usefulness made unavailable
closed mass system - finite resources
-H
+P
R
Homo sapiens - Science Politics Reality
My Planet
772
m forestland
702m grazingland
472
m cropland
202
m shrubland
182
m barrenland
80 meters
Clo
sed mass system Entropy- usefuln
essmadeunavailable
My Planet is very small - yours is too -
80 meters across, that’s the size of
the average human’s land and fresh-
water - 80 meters, to make every
thing, for all time.
My goal for my planet is another
5,000 years of civilizations, so my
Laws will be those of nature-science:
1. Don’t make Products-Babies
(closed mass, entropy, etc.).
2. If you must, make one, the best
(minimize mass-energy use) that lasts
and is shared (maximize time-space).
What laws will you make for your planet?...
1 ATMOSPHERE science initiative
endorsed by eminent scientists from every discipline and part of the planet
(see partial list below), about whom IPCC Chair Dr. Rajendra Pachauri
wrote: 'In conclusion let me say I greatly admire what you are doing, which
makes you not only unique scientists but great leaders of human society."
Dr. Yuan Lee, Nobel Prize winner and President of the International Council for
Science (ICSU)
Dr. Olive Shisana, President of the International Social Sciences Council (ISSC)
Dr. Ivo Slaus, President of the World Academy of Arts and Sciences (WAAS)
Dr. Jacob Palis, I.P. President of The World Academy of Sciences (TWAS)
Dr. Mohamed Hassan, co-Chair Global Network of Academies of Science (IAP)
Dr. Daya Reddy, co-Chair of the InterAcademy Panel (IAC) (+ Pres SAAS)
Dr. Gunter Stock, President of All European Academies (ALLEA)
Dr Lars Walloe, President of the Academia Europaea
Dr. Won-Hoon Park, President of the Association of Academies and Societies of
Sciences in Asia (AASSA)
Dr. Ahmadou Ndiaye, President of the African Academy of Science (AAS)
Dr. Berhanu Abegaz, Executive Director of the African Academy of Science (AAS)
Dr. Robin Crewe, President of the Network of African Science Academies (NASAc)
Dr. Juan Asenjo, co-Chair InterAmerican Network of Academies of Science (IANAS)
Dr. Claudio Bifano, President Academia de Ciencias de America Latina (ACAL)
Dr. Keto Mshigeni, Vice President of The World Academy of Science (TWAS)
Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman, President of the Network of Academies of Sciences in Islamic
Countries (NASIC)
Dr. Abdel Salam Majali, President of the Islamic World Academy of Sciences (IAS)
Dr. Mouneef Zo'ubi, Secretary General Islamic World Academy of Sciences (IAS);
Dr. Trevor Alleyne, President of the Caribbean Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Dr. Nelson Moreno Ceballos, President of the Caribbean Scientific Union (CCC)
Dr. Kazu-yuki Tatsumi, President International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry
(IUPAC)
Dr. Alik T.Ismail-Zadeh, Secretary General of the International Union of Geodesy and
Geophysics (IUGG);
Dr. Nils Stenseth, President of the International Union of Biology (IUB)
Dr. Gregory Petsko, President International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular
Dr. Roland Oberhänsli President International Union of Geological Sciences
Dr. Michael Burawoy, President of the International Sociological Association (ISA)
Dr. Sathasivian Saths Cooper, President of the International Union of Psychological
Science (IUPsyS)
Dr. Andrew Spiegel, Vice President of the International Union of Anthropological and
Ethnological Sciences (IUAES)
Dr. Thomas Reuter, Founding chair World Council of Anthropological Associations
Dr. Roseanne Diab, Executive Officer Academy of Science South Africa (ASSAf)
Dr. Oyewale Tomori, President of the Nigerian Academy of Science (NAS)
Dr. Francis Allotey, President of the Ghana Academy of Arts & Sciences (GAAS)
Dr Ahmedou Ndiaye, President Senegal Academie des Sciences et Techniques (SAST)
Dr. Samuel Domngang, President of the Cameroon Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Dr. Rafael Munavu, President of the Kenya National Academy of Science (KNAS)
Dr. Ester Mwaikambo, President of the Tanzania Academy of Sciences (TAAS)
Dr. Demissie Habte, President of the Ethiopia Academy of Sciences (EAS)
Dr. Paul Mugambi, President of the Uganda National Academy of Sciences (UNAS)
Dr David Mutekanga, Executive Secr. Uganda National Academy of Sciences (UNAS)
Dr. Mwananyanda Mbikusita Lewanika, President Zambia Academy of Science (ZaAS)
Dr. Christopher Mutambirwa, President of the Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences (ZAS)
Dr. Rajaona Andriamananjara, President Madagascar National Academy of Arts, Letters
and Sciences
Dr. Jorg Hacker, President of the German Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nils Stenseth, President of the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters
Dr. Olavi Nevanllina, President of the Council of Finish Academies
Dr. Gunter Stock, President of the Union of German Academies of Sciences and
Humanities and President of the Berlin Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities
Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman, President of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences (PAS)
Dr. Sung Hyun Park, President Korean Academy of Science and Technology (KAST)
Dr. Mesbahuddin Ahmad, President Bangladesh Academy of Science (BAS)
Dr. Surendra Raj Kafle, Chancellor Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST)
Dr Batbold Enkhtuvshin, President of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences (MAS)
Dr Imad Khatib, Secretary General of the Palestine Academy of Sciences
Dr. Ruth Arnon, President of the Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities
Dr. William Padolina, President National Academy of Science and Technology Philippines
(NASTP)
Dr. James McCarthy, President of the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS)
Dr. Jacob Palis, President of the Brazilian Academy of Science (BAS)
Dr. Juan Asenjo, President of the Academia de Ciencias Chilena
Dr. Claudio Bifano, President of the Academia de Ciencias Fisicas, Matematicas and
Naturales Venezuala
Dr. José Franco, President Mexico Academia of Ciencias (MAC)
Dr. Enrique Acevedo, President of the Guatamala Academia de Ciencias, Medicas, Fisicas y
Naturales
Dr. Roberto Cignoli, President of the Academía Nacional de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y
Naturales Argentina
Dr. Milciades Mejia, President of the Dominican Republic Academia de Ciencias
Dr. Jorge A. Huete-Pérez, President Nicaraguan Academy of Sciences
Dr. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsacker, President Club of Rome
Dr. Bill McKibben, President 350.org
Dr Eric Chivian, recipient Nobel Peace Prize, Center for Health and Global Environment...
among many other eminent global scientists
Biology
THE RIGHT TO KNOW
UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2014
UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2014
2°C
247,535,143,119,442
2°C
2°C
the solution
the problem
2°C emission limit - gigatonnes kilograms C
400% over limit - zero 2035
247,535,143,152,323
we are part of the
problemLimit global warming to 2°C
solutionLimit our national emissions to 2°C
Dr. Rajendra Pachauri
IPCC Chair
65% of our carbon limit compatible with a 2°C goal already used
AR5 WGI SPM
Amount Used
1870-2011:
515
GtC
Amount
Remaining:
275
GtCTotal Carbon
Limit:
790
GtC
247
543
2014
69%
The window for action is rapidly closing
closed = 2035
1 Dec 2014 UNFCCC COP20
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
247,535,143,112,129
Science: CLIMATE CHANGE
is the urgent, defining, imperative
issue of our time - because it is
destabilization and destruction
of the life support system upon
which everything depends -
food, water, air, temperature,
health, safety, security, jobs,
economic growth, everything.
+ 8
+ 7
+ 6
+ 5
+ 4
+ 3
+ 2
+ 1
0.0
2°C
Dr. Thomas Stocker
IPCC co-chair
Physical Science
Dr. Reto Knutti
IPCC coordinating
lead author
Physical Science
Dr. Shreekant Gupta
IPCC coordinating
lead author
Mitigation
Dr. Youba Sokona
IPCC co-chair
Mitigation
Dr. Rajendra Pachauri
IPCC chair
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scientists
Solutions have been available
for 114 years! Act now...
2°C
H O
-+
1900: electric cars solar cells wind turbines hydro power geothermal energy hydrogen fuel cells
1900, a scientist wrote: “The Sun’s Powers gathered by photo-electric cells into electrical storehouses, the total extinction of combustion engines, filth and smoke - a Blessed Vision!”
THIS BABY WILL
LIVE TO BE
►It is science that brings our medicines
and our long life - and our smart phones,
computers, cars, planes, satellites, space
travel, nearly everything of modern life.
►And the same science now warns that
unless humanity stops emissions
now, we will destroy our life
support system upon which
everything depends - food
water, air, temperature, health,
safety, security, jobs, economic
growth, everything.
►So heed the doctors, the
scientists - get well, survive
and thrive, live long, happy
lives.
*because of SCIENCE -
knowledge, evidence, consensus.
Climate
change -
heed
doctors
scientists
+ 8
+ 7
+ 6
+ 5
+ 4
+ 3
+ 2
+ 1
0.0
2°C
UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2014
Limit global warming to 2°C*
2°C
*2010 COP16 Cancún agreements: future global warming should be limited to below 2°C (3.6°F)
relative to preindustrial level,“1.5°C dangerous destabilization” has already happened, see following.
+ 8
+ 7
+ 6
+ 5
+ 4
+ 3
+ 2
+ 1
0.0
For 2°C, limit all anthropogenic
emissions from now to 2100 to:
2°C
Climate change has
1 cause: emissions
1 solution: limit
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
247,535,143,196,781
2°C
Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
247,535,143,197,764
2°C
2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
solution
DRTHOMASSTOCKER
ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
27 Sep 2013
IPCC, approved by the governments of the world:
To likely limit global warming to 2°C over pre-
industrial levels, accounting for non-CO2 forcings,
limit all anthropogenic emissions to 260 gigatonnes
of carbon between 27 Sep 2013 and 2100.
Per human this means a limit of about 30,800 kgs in
emissions from consumption of goods and services.
problem
gigatonnes C
247,535,143,190,096
247
1.5°C dangerous destabilization has already happened
To avoid catastrophe for everyone there is now 1 objective: 2°C
2°C
increasing 1 gigatonne every 34 days gigatonnes kilograms carbon
In 2013, COP19, concentrations
of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere were such, that
unless removed, 1.5°C global
warming will happen.
To likely limit global warming to 1.5°C,
emit nothing, & remove from the atmosphere
12,464,856,863,837
2°C
It took about 155 years, 1860 to 2014, to put about 540 gigatonnes C in the atmosphere;
at current trends it will take a mere 21 years to put up another 247.
Cumulative emissions 1860 to now Cumulative emissions are
the cause of climate change
1860, President Abraham Lincoln
and officers, American Civil War
155 years - gigatonnes kg C
21 years - gigatonnes kg C
542,972,506,033,015
247,027,493,693,215
2°C
1.1 million Eiffel Towers
1 gigatonne = 100,000 Eiffel Towers, every minute 2 Eiffel Towers are emitted
At current trends, from COP20 2014 to
COP21 2015, 11 gigatonnes of carbon
will be emitted, destabilizing
the human life support
system upon which
everything
depends.
From Lima to Paris in equivalent emissions C
gigatonnes kilograms C
247,027,493,696,520
► every minute
20 million kg C emissions
► every hour
1.2 billion kg
► every day
30 billion kg
► every 34 days
1 gigatonne
► every year
11 gigatonnes
► in 21 years
247 gigatonnes -
time is up: 2°C
The clock is ticking
time is running out
2°C
,535,143,110,441247
United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change - Conference 2014
too much
realityPresentationMichael Wadleigh, scientist Oscar winner
247,535,143,159,962
2°C
*2010 COP16 Cancún agreements: future global warming should be limited to below 2°C (3.6°F) relative to preindustrial level.
United Nations
Framework Convention on
Climate Change
For 20 years gas concentrations have not been stabilized,
dangerous interference has not been prevented, no progress
has been made toward the Objective, only regress...
There is only 1 objective
UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
To limit global warming to 2°C* limit emissions to
*COP16 gigatonnes kilograms carbon
247,535,143,143,736
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
• Emissions reached a new record high in 2013.
• Between 1990 and 2013 there was a 34%
increase in the warming effect on our climate.
• CO2 levels increased more between 2012 and
2013 than during any other year since UNFCCC
began, 1992.
• Far from falling, emissions increased last year
at the fastest rate since UNFCCC’s founding.
• We must reverse this trend, reign in the relent-
less rise by cutting emissions across the board,
which has not been done in the time of
UNFCCC.
• We are running out of time. There are only
about 20 years until there will be enough emis-
sions in the atmosphere, which if not removed
will cause 2°C warming.
• IPCC and WMO provide the science for deci-
sion making.
• We have the knowledge and the tools for
action to keep temperature increase within 2°C.
• Laws of physics are not negotiable, laws of
man are. Agree and limit emissions for 2°C
now.
• Give our children and grandchildren a future.
• Use the science. Pleading ignorance can no
longer be an excuse for not acting...
“Give our children a future... Pleading
ignorance can no longer be an excuse for
inaction... Laws of physics are not negotiable”
Dr Michel Jarraud
WMO Secretary General
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Long-lived greenhouse gases
CO21.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.0
Year
Radiativeforcing(W/m2
)
WMO 9 Sep 2014
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Long-livedgreenhousegases
UNFCCC
Conference
Year Location Negotiation Outcome Emission
Outcome
CO2 parts
per
million
Emission
Outcome
Gigatonnes
of Carbon
per year
Emission
Outcome
Limit for 2°C
Gigatonnes
of Carbon
COP 1 1995 Berlin Berlin Mandate 360 8 415
COP 2 1996 Geneva Geneva Ministerial Declaration Noted 362 8 407
COP 3 1997 Kyoto Kyoto Protocol 363 9 400
COP 4 1998 Buenos Aires Buenos Aires Plan of Action 365 8 391
COP 5 1999 Bonn Bonn Agreement 368 8 383
COP 6 2000 The Hague Bonn Agreements Consensus 369 8 375
COP 7 2001 Marrakesh Marrakesh Ministerial Declaration Adopted 370 8 367
COP 8 2002 Delhi Declaration on Climate Change & Sustainable Development 373 8 359
COP 9 2003 Milan Climate Change Fund & Least Development Countries Fund 375 8 351
COP 10 2004 Buenos Aires Complete Marrakesh Accords 377 9 343
COP 11 2005 Montreal Global Environmental Facility Guidelines 378 9 334
COP 12 2006 Nairobi Nairobi Framework Welcomed 381 9 325
COP 13 2007 Bali Bali Roadmap 382 10 316
COP 14 2008 Poznan Adaptation Fund 385 9 307
COP 15 2009 Copenhagen Copenhagen Accord 387 9 297
COP 16 2010 Cancun Cancun Agreements 389 10 288
COP 17 2011 Durban Durban Platform for Enhanced Action 391 10 278
COP 18 2012 Doha Doha Amendments to the Kyoto Protocol 393 11 268
COP 19 2013 Warsaw Warsaw Outcomes
Objective Progress ?
396 11 257
COP 20 2014 Lima 400 11 247
1.5°C
GHG concentra-
tions likely reached
in 2013
UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Islamic State Ebola
Immigration
Recession
2°C
“Terrorism, instability,
inequality, disease - there is
one issue that will define this
century, the catastrophe of
climate change...” and we
do nothing to stop it.
There is 1 Objective
Destabilization
catastrophe
- and we do
nothing to
stop it
There is 1 Objective
Destabilization
ALIVE DEAD
2°C is the difference between life and death.
Save your child’s life - get the temperature
down now: the medicine: 1 kg C per
person per day to 2100 - now 4 kg.
Life threatening emergency
400% over limit >
100% on limit
+ 8
+ 7
+ 6
+ 5
+ 4
+ 3
+ 2
+ 1
0.0
2°C
°F
°C37
98.6
40
104
1 kg C
/ cap
/ day
to 2100
2°C
247,535,143,109,130
2°C
°F
°C37
98.6
40
104
makes all the difference in life: 37°C is normal
human temperature, 40°C is death.
247 gigatonnes of emissions is a lot: 1 kilogram
of carbon per person per day from now until 2100,
86 years.
1 kg C
/ cap
/ day
to 2100
Listen to the best scientists: climate change is deadly,
life-threatening. To limit
the change to 2°C,
limit emissions per
person per day to
1 kg C between
now and 2100.
1 kg C
/ cap
/ day
to 2100
400
%
overlimit
2°C
247,535,143,149,458
UN Climate Conference 2014
2°CPeru cannot, Peru must not fail - if we
continue as we are, climate change will be
a catastrophe. UNFCCC has 1 Objective:
Opening ceremony
The Objective reality is that for 20 years we
have not stabilized emissions - but the greater
reality is that highly profitable solutions have
been available for decades - to build a non-
emission, non-destruction economy that can
last for centuries. Now finally let’s do it...
TO SUCCEED ADMIT FAILURE
UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
To limit global warming to 2°C* limit emissions to
*COP16 gigatonnes kilograms carbon
COP20 President
Manuel Pulgar-Vidal
247,535,143,141,743
There is 1 Objective
STABILIZATION
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
DE-STABILIZATIONgigatonnes C per year long-lived greenhouse gases
+8
+8
+9
+8
+8
+8
+8
+8
+9
+9
+9
+9
+10
+9
+9 +10 +10 +11 +11 +11 ?
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
COP 20
+ 10 ?
+ 9 ?
+ 8 ?
COP
2°C
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
Humanity is 400% over limit
for 2°C, zero is 2035, 21 years.
At current trends +1.1%/yr emission increase:
247,535,143,140,562
Guide to Lima COP20: there is 1 Objective
UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
To limit global warming to 2°C* limit emissions to
400% over limit - zero 2035 *COP16 gigatonnes kilograms carbon
2°C
Lima cannot,
must not fail.
Forests
Cities
Oceans
Gender Adaptation
Health
Indiginous
Finance
MountainsRenewables
Jobs IndustryAgriculture
Poverty
Economy
Water
Efficiency Energy
247,535,143,141,386
Guide to UNFCCC: there is 1 Objective2°C
Forests
Cities
Oceans
Gender Adaptation
Health
Indiginous
Finance
MountainsRenewables
Jobs IndustryAgriculture
Poverty
Economy
Water
Efficiency Energy
stabilize gases
prevent danger
400% over limit 2°C emission limit gigatonnes kg C
247,535,143,140,253
2°C
Emissions of 193 nations must
add up to 1 global limit for 2°C.
At current trends +1.1%/yr emission increase:
Humanity is 400% over limit,
zero is 2035, only 21 years.
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
EMISSION LIMIT
2°C
I’m for
Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General
gigatonnes C
247,535,143,195,727
247
2°C
193 Gross National Incomes
add up to 1 Global $GNI.
Humanity’s economy is
growing 2.2% per year. ECONOMIC GROWTH
I’m for
Global Gross National Income
$ increasing 2.2% /yr
$99+trillion
99,342,602,450,348
2°C
President Barack Obama
United States
Chancelor Angela Merkel
Germany
Prime Minister Narendra Modi
India
President Xi Jinping
China
President Goodluck Jonathan
Nigeria
My
GNI /cap is
$ 52,308
My
GNI /cap is
$ 43,049
My
GNI /cap is
$ 11,477
My
GNI /cap is
$ 5,150
My
GNI /cap is
$ 5,353
Global Gross National Income
$
193 Gross National
Incomes add up to
1 Global $GNI
Humanity:
$13,723 GNI /cap,
economic growth
2.2% per year
increasing 2.2% /yr
VoicesVoices99,342,602,451,169
2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
Emissions of 193 nations
must add up to 1 global
limit for 2°C.
Humanity is 400%
over limit, zero is
2035, only 21 years.
President Barack Obama
United States
Chancelor Angela Merkel
Germany
Prime Minister Narendra Modi
India
President Xi Jinping
China
President Goodluck Jonathan
Nigeria
I’m
888%
over limit
for 2oC
I’m
468%
over limit
for 2oC
I’m
134%
over limit
for 2oC
I’m
30%
of the limit
for 2oC
I’m
1,398%
over limit
for 2oC
VoicesVoices,535,143,182,371247
“America’s priority
is jobs, economic
growth.”
If a dome were put over America, US emissions
are so great that at current trends atmospheric
gas concentrations causing 2°C warming would
happen in just 6 years, 2020 - then rapidly 4°C,
8°C warming, the end of the US as we know it.
If high per capita emitting countries could not
export their emissions and had to “stew in their
own juices”, it seems certain they would stop
their climate changing emissions immediately.
What if there were
no emission exports?
Stewing in one’s
own juices
2°C
No emission imports
If a dome had been put over Africa a
few years ago to protect it from
emissions from other continents,
African emissions are so
small that global warming
might never happen there.
Of course there is no
dome - and disastrous
climate changes are
already happening to
Africans, the deaths
and destructions are
caused by other
nations’ exported
emissions...
2°C
Energy use is the principle source
of climate changing emissions.
• By 1900 solar cells, wind turbines,
hydro power, geothermal energy,
hydrogen fuel cells, electric cars
(to name a few) were all in use.
• In 1990, 90 years later all solar,
wind, hydro, geothermal NON-
emitting energy had risen to be
only a very small 3% of total
primary energy supply (tpes).
• Currently, extraordinarily, all
global solar-wind-hydro-geo
energy remains just 3% of tpes:
a zero increase in 25 years.
• In 1990 NON-emitting nuclear
energy was 6%, currently it has
fallen to just 5% of tpes.
• This means that currently global
coal, oil, gas, bio* EMITTING
energy has risen to be an over-
whelming 92% of global tpes.
* Bio energy, 10% tpes, as practiced is
NOT sustainable with substantial
emission, pollution and health hazards.
coal 29% oil 32% gas 21% bio 10%*
EMITTING energy 92% tpes (25 years)
solar wind hydro geo 3% nuclear 5%
NON-EMITTING energy 8% tpes
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
2°C
1900
247,535,143,185,323
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
2°C
Climate change has
1 cause: emissions
1 solution: limit.
coal 29% oil 32% gas 21% bio 10%
EMITTING energy 92% tpes
solar wind hydro geo 3%
NON-EMITTING energy 8% tpes
for humanity
President Barack Obama
United States
Chancelor Angela Merkel
Germany
Prime Minister Narendra Modi
India
President Xi Jinping
China
President Goodluck Jonathan
Nigeria
2%
My
solar-wind-
hydro-geo is
3%
My
solar-wind-
hydro-geo is
3%
My
solar-wind-
hydro-geo is
2%
My
solar-wind-
hydro-geo is
1%
My
solar-wind-
hydro-geo is
nuclear 5%
VoicesVoices247,535,143,180,547
EMISSION REDUCTION NOW example:
► In just 5 years, high technology pro-
duction of US WWII aircraft increased
from 2,141 to 96,318 per year, 4,500%.
► The war was won - the world’s most
advanced, high tech economy was built.
► The same can happen now - rapidly
build an innovative, robust, inexhaust-
ible, renewable economy that will last.
solar wind hydro geo nuclearNON-EMISSION ENERGY
PISTOL
PACKIN
MAMAS
1,400%
over 2°C limit,
my non-emitting
energy is only 10%
No problem!
Increase
non-emitting energy
only 1,200%!
2°C
ROSIE
RIVETERS
247,535,143,150,107
2°C
►Combustion, emission coal-oil-gas-bio energy -
the principle cause of climate change - currently
causes nearly a half million deaths per year
from extreme weather-temperature, floods,
storms, food-water shortages, disease increase,etc.
►Additionally coal-oil-gas-bio energy accidents
cause thousands of deaths each year.
►Long-life climate changing gases last thousands of
years - and 14.9 million times more “waste” just in
CO2, to Carbon-Capture-Store, than nuclear since 1960.
coal oil gas bio
92%: emitting energy
nuclear
5%: non-emitting energy
Nuclear vs coal-oil-gas-bio energy
419,000+ 0
70
deaths per year -
radiation, etc.
►Non-combustion, non-emission
nuclear energy causes no
climate change deaths.
►Since its inception in 1960,
nuclear energy has caused an
average of 70 deaths per year
due to accidents, radiation.
►Long-life radiation lasts
thousands-millions of years - but
a fraction of the “waste” of CO2.
climate change deaths per year
2°C
All climate actions must add up to 1 global emission limit for 2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
& Forests
INCLUSION ENERGY
30,600 Peruvians provided with solar.
Fight energy poverty.
Forests
Cities
Oceans
Gender Adaptation
Health
Indiginous
Finance
MountainsRenewables
Jobs IndustryAgriculture
Poverty
Economic
Growth
Water
Efficiency
There is 1
Objective:
stabilization
Energy
247,535,143,188,955
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
• UN “Very High Developed” live 21 years longer, have 2.8
times the education, 32 times the money - and caused an
extraordinary 73 times the emissions of Low Developed.
• 16.6% of humanity - the best educated, healthiest,
wealthiest, the Highest Developed - cause 62% of
cumulative emissions, the cause of climate change.
• The 16% Least Developed humans cause a miniscule
0.8%.
• 57% of humanity - in 141 African, Latin American and
Southern Asian countries - cause only 21% of emissions.
High - Medium - Low Developed
Michael Bloomberg
United States
Ban Ki-moon
South Korea
Mary Robinson
Ireland
John Kufour
Ghana
Barack Obama
United States
Angela Merkel
Germany
Narendra Modi
India
Xi Jinping
China
Goodluck Jonathan
Nigeria
Very High Developed
“Very High Developed” are 977% over limit
Very High
Development
VoicesVoices
247,535,143,178,142
Envoy Michael Bloomberg
United States
UN Sec.Gen. Ban Ki-moon
South Korea
Envoy Mary Robinson
Ireland
Envoy John Kufour
Ghana
Donation
day: $.27 + 14 kg
year: $100 + 4,962 kg
Donation
day: $.10 + 11 kg
year: $36 + 3,934 kg
Donation
day: $.50 + 9 kg
year: $182 + 3,274 kg
to
adapt to
Very High
emissions:
1/4 of 1
cent per
person
I
donate 14 kgs
and 27 cents
each day
I
donate 11 kgs
and 10 cents
each day
I
donate 9 kgs
and 50 cents
each day
I
receive 1/4
of 1 cent
each day
Each day on average UN “Very High Developed”
donate 36 cents in total “Official Development
Assistance”, plus a “donation” of 10 kilograms
of climate changing emissions (see data / maps).
Each day for climate change “compensation”,
the “Most Vulnerable and Exposed”, including
Africans, receive 1/4 of one cent per person
from the Very High Developed. This may
increase 10 fold (to $100 billion), each person
will then get 2.5 cents per day.
Emissions and Money
2°C
VoicesVoices
China India Nigeria Brazil Germany EU28 Humanity
Human Development - UNDP 2014 Very High High Medium Low High Very High Very High
Education - school expectancy 16.5 years 12.9 years 11.7 years 9.0 years 15.2 years 16.3 years 16.1 years 12.2 years
Health - life expectancy 78.9 years 75.3 years 66.4 years 52.5 years 73.9 years 80.7 years 80.1 years 70.8 years
Living standards - $ GNI / year $ 52,308 $ 11,477 $ 5,150 $ 5,353 $ 14,275 $ 43,049 $ 33,844 $ 13,723
Emissions cumulative - kgs / cap
Emission limit 2oC - % of limit1 1,398% 468% 134% 30% 195% 888% 745% 401%
Emission limit 2oC - year limit zero1 2020 2033 2081 2315 2060 2023 2025 2035
Non-emitting energy - % tpes2 10% > 12% 1% > 4% 2% > 3% 0.6% > 0.4% 6% > 14% 12% > 11% 14% > 17% 9% > 8%
Solar-Wind-Hydro-Geo 2% > 2% 1% > 3% 2% > 2% 1% > 0.4% 0% > 1% 0% > 3% 2.3% > 3.6% 3% > 3%
Nuclear 8% > 10% 0% > 1% 0.5% > 1% 0% > 0% 6% > 13% 11% > 8% 12% > 13.5% 6% > 5%
Emitting energy - % tpes2 90% > 88% 99% > 96% 98% > 97% 99% > 99.6% 94% > 86% 88% > 89% 86% > 83% 91% > 92%
Bio 3% > 4% 23% > 7% 42% > 23% 80% > 81% 44% > 29% 1% > 9% 3% > 8% 10% > 10%
Gas 23% > 27% 2% > 4% 3% > 6% 5% > 9% 0% > 9% 15% > 21% 18% > 23% 19% > 21%
Oil 40% > 37% 13% > 17% 20% > 23% 16% > 9% 46% > 43% 36% > 34% 38% > 34% 37% > 32%
Coal 24% > 20% 61% > 67% 33% > 45% 0% > 0% 3% > 5% 36% > 25% 27% > 18% 25% > 29%
Energy total primary supply - Mtoe 1,915 > 2,171 865 > 2,922 318 > 794 67 > 134 82 > 293 357 > 323 1,667 > 1,683 8,774 > 13,172
195 national emission
limit laws must add up
to the 1 global limit
To limit global warming
to 2oC limit emissions to
Humanity is 400% over limit1, zero is 2035, energy supply is 92% emittives2
decreasing emission limit gigatonnes kilograms carbon1
1IPCC & 195 governments: To likely limit global warming to 2
o
C above preindustrial levels, limit emissions
to 260 gigatonnes 2013-2100. Above in real-time is the limit now. To be on-limit, emissions should be minus
3% per year; however at current trends, plus 1.1%, zero will be reached, not in 2100 but in 2035, only 21 years
from now. Humanity is 396% over limit to likely limit global warming to 2
o
C. Per human this means a limit
of about 30,800 kilograms of carbon emissions from consumption of goods and services, 2013- 2100.
2The 1st number is 1990 % of total primary energy supply (tpes), the 2nd number is current % tpes: for 25 years
total primary energy supply has been a miniscule 3% solar-wind-hydro-geo non-emitting energy; plus currently
5% nuclear non-emitting energy, plus an overwhelming 92% coal-oil-gas-bio emitting energy, the principal
cause of climate change. Note: bio energy as practiced is not sustainable with substantial emission, pollution and
health hazards; carbon capture & storage, geoengineering, etc. are not yet significant / realities - and may never be.
1
E
mission Lim
it
1
A
tmosphe
re
195 Countries USA
Medium
Emissions consumption - kgs/cap/yr1
(1990>
2012)
(1990>
2012)
2°C “Pragmatic and practical...
The goal is to know what
national emissions are...
The essential task is to
transform energy from high
to low carbon... in developed
and developing countries.”
Todd Stern, US Special
Envoy on Climate Change
247,535,143,117,601
317,728 32,886 9,636 4,366 17,724 283,761 324,967 50,529
25,907 28,995 30,266 30,015 29,980 27,177 27,488 29,253
“If every Chinese lives like Americans, it will be a disaster for the world.”
Dr. Dahe Qin, co-chair Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WGI, Physical Science
62 persons / auto
Human development: living standards - climate changing emissions
1
Cumulative emissions per capita / 2
Emissions from consumption of goods & services, limit remaining for 2oC per capita - in kg/mgC
Americans Chinese Indians
20
50
living standard 1
Very High Developed set
the standards all follow
Per capita: $ GNI ► Emissions
Solutions
1
2
1
2
VoicesVoices
317,728,026,507,796 32,886,022,037,680 9,636,386,197,194
25,907,158,807,784 28,995,498,042,963 30,266,869,473,463
2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
Emissions of 193 nations
must add up to 1 global
limit for 2°C.
Humanity is 400%
over limit, zero is
2035, only 21 years.
President Barack Obama
United States
I’m
1,398%
over limit
for 2°C
President Xi Jinping
China
I’m
468%
over limit
for 2°C
VoicesVoices
US-China sign historic emission pledge
Americans will cut emissions 26%-28% by 2025 com-
pared to 2005, Chinese will peak emissions by 2030.
12 Nov 2014
No mention of 2°C or 247 GtC limit, what do the pledges mean?:
►America’s over limit will go down 198%, from 1,398% to 1,200%.
►China’s over limit will go up 82%, from 468% to 550%.
►US will reach its emission limit not in 2100 but 2021, China in 2028.
►By 2025 Americans, 4.5% of the population, will have emitted 7%
of the global limit for humanity to last till 2100 in just 11 years.
►By 2030 Chinese, 19% of the population, will have emitted 23%
of the global limit for humanity to last till 2100 in just 16 years.
►By 2025 US, 4.5%, will have emitted 16 gigatonnes of carbon.
►By 2030 China, 19%, will have emitted 51 gigatonnes of carbon.
1,200% 550%
,535,143,182,371247
Agreement =
Lima COP20 Climate Conference 2014
Outcome
2°CLimit =
= emission limit for 2°C
gigatonnes kilograms carbon247,535,143,176,167
2°C
Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
EMISSIONBOARD
247,535,143,197,764
2°C
Cumulative emissions per capita in tons Carbon (tC)(from energy use by 2013)
18% of humanity cause 71% of emissions, 267 GtC, >80 tC / cap, 46 countries
30% of humanity cause 21% of emissions, 78 GtC, 23-79 tC / cap, 44 countries
30% of humanity cause 6% of emissions, 23 GtC, 7-22 tC / cap, 33 countries
22% of humanity cause 1% of emissions, 4 GtC, <9 tC / cap, 60 countries
18%
▼
71%
30%
▼
21%
30%
▼
6%
22%
▼
1%
155 years
21 years
It took about 155 years, 1860 to 2014,
to put about 540 gigatonnes in the atmo-
sphere; at current trends it will take a
mere 21 years to put up another 250.
Cumulative emissions
KILO-micrograms per capita
KILO-micrograms per capita
KILO-micrograms per capita
KILO-micrograms per capita
18%
cause 71%
Cumulative emissions are
the cause of climate change,
here they are per capita
22%
cause 1%
of cumulative /
historic emissions
of cumulative /
historic emissions
Cumulative emissions
from fossil fuels & cement, total 1860 to
present (in GIGATONNES-kilograms)
542,972,505,838,557
247,027,493,657,912
542,972,506,035,141
211,937,789,642,376
38,934,497,723,104
3,171,680,146,487
11,718,578,538,870
2°C
18%
▼
45%
30%
▼
40%
30%
▼
13%
22%
▼
2%*Emission limit for 2°C
► HUMANITY: 195 governments
and IPCC: to likely limit global
warming to 2°C accounting
for non-CO2 forcings, limit emis-
sions to 260 gigatonnes of carbon,
27 Sep 2013 to 2100.
► PER HUMAN this means a limit
of about 30,800 kilograms of carbon
emissions from combustion of fuels
flaring and cement, 27 Sep 2013 to 2100.
18% cause an extraordinary 45% of emissions,
48% cause 85% of emissions,
22% cause a very small 2% of emissions, no climate change at all,
52% cause only 15 % of emissions, no dangerous climate change.
18%
cause 45%
zero 04.Apr.2023
950% over limit
zero 23.Oct.2031
494% over limit
zero 28.Jan.2069
160% over limit
Climate change has
1 cause: emissions
1 solution: limit - for 2°C
30,800 kgs C per human
27 Sep 2013 to 2100
2°C emission limit per capita from territorial combustion of fuel & cement*
22%
cause 2%
of territorial emissions from
fuels, flaring & cement
of territorial emissions
from fuel, flaring & cement
Emissions from consumption of goods & services per capita
18% of humanity cause 45% of emissions, 950% over 2oC limit, zero 2023, 39 countries
30% of humanity cause 40% of emissions, 412% over 2oC limit, zero 2035, 44 countries
30% of humanity cause 13% of emissions, 138% over 2oC limit, zero 2077, 33 countries
22% of humanity cause 2% of emissions, 51% of 2oC limit, zero 2183, 72 countries
KILO-micrograms per capita
zero 26.Dec.2266
35% of limit
KILO-micrograms per capita
KILO-micrograms per capita
KILO-micrograms per capita
“Zero” means that at current trends the
allotted 30,800 kgs C per cap 2013 to 2100
will be emitted by the year indicated.
(limits are counting down)
26,819,986,026,207
28,716,234,613,240
30,623,572,804,345
30,104,534,063,508
Deaths caused by climate
change emissions / emittors
in 2010 (from DARA):
► 419,000 total climate change
deaths per year for humanity;
► 82% or 161 DPM (Deaths Per Million)
are in RED countries;
► 14.0%, 46 DPM are in ORANGE countries;
► 3.7%, 11 DPM are in YELLOW countries;
► 0.1%, 0.1 DPM are in PINK countries -
Those who cause
climate change
die the least -
those who don’t
die the most.
greater than 100, average 161 DPM
between 18 & 100, average 46 DPM
between 5 & 18, average 11 DPM
less than 5, average 0.1 DPM
20%
▼
4%
Climate Change DPM (Deaths Per Million):
Climate change
death map
30%
▼
82%
20%
▼
14%
30%
▼
0.1%
419,000 deaths
per year, 96% in RED
and ORANGE countries
400%
over limit
zero 2035
21 years
2°C247,535,143,132,390
2°C
Humanity’s cumulative emissions in KgC
29,400,000,000 kgs added per day
Humanity’s emission limit for 2oC in KgC
zero is 2035, 394% over limit
96.5%
vs
3.5%
by Africans
If all African
emissions were eliminated,
97% of global emissions
would still remain -
and destroy
everyone’s future
Climate change -
1 cause: emissions,
1 solution: limit -
Climate change solution: emission limit
African countries
especially must “keep their eyes on
the prize” - money from high per capita
emitters will NOT stop climate change
catastrophe - destruction of the life
support system - emission reduction
by high per capita emitters will.
Africans 15% of humanity, 56 countries:
3.5% of consumption emissions, 82% of the limit for 2oC
2.5% of cumulative emissions, 10 tC per African
cumulative emissions per African
Africans
emissions from consumption per capita limit
cumulative emissions per non African
Rest of humanity
emissions from consumption per capita limit
85.0%
▼
96.5% / 97.5%
15.0%
▼
3.5% / 2.5%
542,972,506,032,591 247,027,493,701,010
18,357,75728,9
61,9 64,374,111
30,4 18,976,975
9,8 04,264,247
2°C
24%
▼
9.5% / 6.5%
9%
▼
5.5% / 4.0%
15%
▼
3.5% / 2.6%
Africans + Latins 24% of humanity, 87 countries:
9.0% of consumption emissions, 137% over limit 2oC
6.5% of cumulative emissions, 15 tC per African Latin
91.0%
vs
3.5% by Africans
5.5% by Latins
9.0% by AfricanLatins
If all African
and all Latin American
consumption emissions were
eliminated, 91% of global
emissions would still
remain - and destroy
everyone’s future
Climate change -
1 cause: emissions,
1 solution: limit -
Blue-green countries
especially must “keep their eyes on
the prize” - money from high per capita
emitters will NOT stop climate change
catastrophe -destruction of the life
support system - emission reduction
by high per capita emitters will.
Africans 15% of humanity, 54 countries:
3.5% of consumption emissions, 84% of the limit for 2oC
2.6% of cumulative emissions, 10 tC per African
Latin Americans 9% of humanity, 44 countries:
5.5% of consumption emissions, 234% over limit for 2oC
4.0% of cumulative emissions, 25 tC per Latin American
cumulative emissions per Latin American
Latin Americans
emissions from consumption per capita limit
cumulative emissions per African
Africans
emissions from consumption per capita limit
cumulative emissions per African Latin American
Africans + Latin Americans
emissions from consumption per capita limit
Humanity’s cumulative emissions in KgC
29,400,000,000 kgs added per day
Humanity’s emission limit for 2oC in KgC
zero is 2035, 394% over limit
Climate change solution: emission limit
cumulative emissions non African-Latin American
Rest of humanity
emissions from consumption per capita limit
542,972,506,032,591 247,027,493,701,010
28,8 21,361,124
66,1 15,984,889
30,4 18,976,983
9,8 04,264,246
83,085,20929,7
22,2 07,366,234
03,797,09229,9
15,9 53,181,030
Southern Asians 33% of humanity, 41 countries:
11.7% of consumption emissions, 130% over limit 2oC
6.2% of cumulative emissions, 11 tC per Southern Asian
Africans 15% of humanity, 56 countries:
3.5% of consumption emissions, 82% of the limit for 2oC
2.5% of cumulative emissions, 10 tC per African
Latin Americans 9% of humanity, 44 countries:
5.5% of consumption emissions, 234% over limit for 2oC
4.0% of cumulative emissions, 25 tC per Latin American
These countries
especially must “keep their eyes on
the prize” - money from high per capita
emitters will NOT stop climate change
catastrophe -destruction of the life
support system - emission reduction
by high per capita emitters will.
33%
▼
11.7% / 6.2%
2°C
57% - 140 countries
▼
20.7% / 12.7%
9%
▼
5.5% / 4.0%
15%
▼
3.5% / 2.5%
If all of African, Latin
& Southern Asian
consumption emissions were
eliminated, 79% of global
emissions would still
remain - and destroy
everyone’s future
Climate change -
1 cause: emissions,
1 solution: limit -
“South” (all above) 57% of humanity, 141 countries:
20.7% of consumption emissions, 133% over limit 2oC
12.7% of cumulative emissions, 13 tC per Southerner
cumulative emissions per Latin American
Latin America
emissions from consumption per capita limit
cumulative emissions per African
Africa
emissions from consumption per capita limit
cumulative emissions per Southern Asian
SouthernAsia
emissions from consumption per capita limit
79.3%
vs
3.5% by Africans
5.5% by Latins
11.7% by South Asians
20.7% total
Humanity’s cumulative emissions in KgC
29,400,000,000 kgs added per day
Humanity’s emission limit for 2oC in KgC
zero is 2035, 394% over limit
Climate change solution: emission limit
cumulative emissions non African-Latin-Asian
Rest of humanity
emissions from consumption per capita limit
542,972,506,032,591 247,027,493,701,010
28,8 21,361,124
66,1 15,984,889
29,9 03,797,092
15,9 53,181,030
83,085,20929,7
30,4 18,976,983
07,366,23422,2
04,264,2469,8
2°C
gigatonneskilograms C
Cumulative emissions are the cause of
climate change.
USA
Germany
UK
China
India
Nigeria
Humanity
Humanity onlimit2°C
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
1,398%
888%
795%
468%
134%
30%
400%
100%
2
6
3
83
121
140
66
605%
530%
583%
60%
17%
9%
100%
323tC
283tC
312tC
32tC
9tC
5tC
53tC
Lawmaking cumulative / H ►%avg ►rank % of 2oC limit
Cumulative emissions per human (shown in micrograms), the others in the top 8 rank: #1 Luxembourg, #4 Belgium , #5 Czech Rep, #7 Estonia, #8 Trinidad & Tobago
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
155 years
21 years
It took about 155 years, 1860 to 2014,
to put about 540 gigatonnes in the atmo-
sphere, at current trends it will take a
mere 21 years to put up another 250.
Emissions:
cumulative / historic per human
counting up began 1860
543,073,661,268,221 542,972,505,839,394
247,027,493,667,917
323,170,402,051,916
283,015,022,290,402
311,608,321,197,871
31,889
9,001
,427,358,137
4,654
,804,920,833
53,470
,538,509,842
52,264
,766,159,566
,059,139,731
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
100%
1,398%
888%
795%
468%
134%
30%
400%
2100
2020
2024
2025
2033
2081
2315
2035
2°CLimit
USA
Germany
UK
China
India
Nigeria
Humanity
100%
4.5%
1.2%
0.9%
19.7%
17.5%
2.4%
100%
25%
17.6%
2.8%
1.9%
23.1%
5.8%
0.2%
100%
87
6
9
10
18
66
301
21
2°C 30,800 kg / cap counting down began 27 Sep 2013
Lawmaking % of limit years ►zero pop ►emissions
* IPCC: To likely limit global warming to 2oC accounting for nonCO2 forcings, limit emissions to 260 gigatonnes of carbon maximum between 27 Sep 2013 and 2100 = 30,800 kg per human.
Emission limit 2°C:
consumption of goods & services per human
2°C humanity zero 2035 - 400% over limit
2°C
gigatonneskilograms C
247,027,493,726,710
30,352,476,774,377
25,109,863,075,633
27,173,429,984,603
27,447,410,751,469
28,874,973,458,165
30,225,021,172,957
30,646,988,367,634
29,145,769,726,195
To finance
limiting emissions to 2°C, use
the established economic science
principle of proportionality: income/
consumption/emissions - tax - are
proportionally related per capita.
77%
14%
4%
3%
2%
Richest
propo
rtional
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Poorest
Tax $
Emission
Consumption
Income
per capita
$ financing 2°C
Tax $
Solutions
$
2°C
GNI increasing 2.2% /yr
income
99,342,602,450,348
economic growth
2°C
$ global gross national income increasing 2.2% /yr
problem
solution
cost: 0.06% growth > regained !
preserve the life support system 2°C emission limit gigatonnes kilograms C
99,342,602,449,210
247,027,493,694,004
2°C
Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon“It is a race against time.”François Hollande,
President France
“Everything must be done to
reduce emissions radically…
to limit global warming to
below 2°C.”
Humanity is 400% over limit,
zero is 2035, only 21 years.
Solutions have been available
for decades, act now.
247,535,143,197,764
Noproblem!2°C limit
2°C 2035 - 400% over limit
2°C
247,535,143,151,523
Bruce Springsteen
i am part of the
problemLimit global warming to 2°C
Limit my national emissions to 2°C
solution
problem
i am part of the
solutionLimit global warming to 2°C Limit my national emissions to 2°C
we are part of the
problem / solutionlimit global warming to 2°C limit our national emissions to 2°C
Best educated,
healthiest, wealthiest,
highest emitters
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Limit
my nation’s
emissions
to 2°C
Emit unto others
as you would have
them emit unto you
Climate change
global warming
There is 1 Objective: Stabilization
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
2°C
Destabilization
247,535,143,135,515
Peru will
succeed
2°C
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
There is 1 Objective: Stabilization
Destabilization
247,535,143,142,853
UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2014
2°C
247,535,143,119,442
HSfound@gmail.com
+44 7-8557 1-8557
247,535,143,084,132
12,464,856,702,522
Start Stop
OUTCOME
AGREEMENT =
2°C LIMIT =
= emission limit for 2°C
gigatonneskilograms carbon
UN Climate Conference 2014
247,535,143,179,293
UN Climate Change Conference
• PARTIES
Negotiations
Venue
2°C
Emissions of 196 Parties must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C
To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to
gigatonnes kilograms carbon
Mountains
& Water
Forests Sustainable
Cities
Energy OceansObservers
& Press
Indiginous
Peoples
• VOICES
Knowledge
Pavilions
UNFCCC objective:
stabilization gases
prevention danger247,535,143,149,700
DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
(do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years)
approved by the governments of the world
updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC
Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C
Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
Jose Barroso, EC President
23 Sep 2014
“IPCC scientists tell us that
2°C is possible - but only if
we get serious... and lead. It is
a test we cannot afford to fail.”
DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
(do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years)
approved by the governments of the world
updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC
Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C
Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
Jean-Claude Juncker,
EC President
“I want the European Union
to lead the fight against
global warming… We owe
this to future generations.”
DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
François Hollande,
President France
“Everything must be done to
reduce emissions radically…
to limit global warming to
2°C... to give the world’s
young people hope.” 23 Sep 2014
(do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years)
approved by the governments of the world
updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC
Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C
Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
Angela Merkel,
Chancellor Germany
“To limit global warming to
less than 2°C we need to act
quickly and decisively... it
is quite literally a question
of survival...”
(do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years)
approved by the governments of the world
updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC
Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C
Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
“When offered clear scientific
advice… to safeguard the long-
term future of our planet and
our people, we should seize it.”
DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
David Cameron,
UK Prime Minister
23 Sep 2014
(do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years)
approved by the governments of the world
updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC
Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C
Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
“We cannot condemn
our children... We know
what we have to do to
avoid irreparable harm.”
DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO
IPCC AR5 Working Group I
Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
Barack Obama,
US President
23 Sep 2014
(do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years)
approved by the governments of the world
updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC
Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C
Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C
CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
we are part of the
problemLimit global warming to 2°C
solutionLimit our national emissions to 2°C
THE RIGHT TO KNOW
2°C
Emission limit now to limit global warming to 2°C
Gigatonnes kilograms Carbon GtC
EMISSION RATE
• The rate of climate change is increasing not
decreasing: GHG emissions growth in the last
decade, 2000-2010, was larger than in the
previous 3 decades, +2.2%/yr vs +1.3%/yr.
• Far from falling, atmospheric CO2 increased
last year at the fastest rate for nearly 30 years.
1990 20352014
0
250
450
1860:790GtC*
Greenhousegasemissions
EMISSION LIMIT 2°C
• 1860-1990, 130 years, 340 GtC* emitted
• 1990-2014, 25 years, 200 GtC emitted - an unmitigated disaster
• 2014-2035, 21 years, 250 GtC at current trends = +2°C
*GtC, gigatonnes of carbon
NON-EMISSION ENERGY
• 1900-1990, 90 years, 0 > 3% solar-wind-hydro-geo tpes
• 1990-2014, 25 years, 3% solar-wind-hydro-geo, no increase
• 1990-2014, 25 years, 6% nuclear declined to 5%
• 2014 EMITTING ENERGY: 92%
IN SUM
• 1990-2014 is an unmitigated disaster
• Solutions have been in place for decades
• To prevent catastrophe act now...
247,535,143,185,451
prof
itable
solutions Limiting global warming
to 2°C is highly profitable
► Economic growth is initially
reduced by only 0.06%, from
projected 1.6 - 3% growth.
► -0.06% is delayed growth,
benefits then increase building
a non-combustion, non-emitting,
robust, high technology economy
that will last. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
<2°C
2°C
only 0.06% growth required
GNI
$
increasing 2.2% /yr
99,342,602,450,348

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Science R eality

  • 1. . Nature, the entire physical world, natural Resources (R); . Nature, very highly organized: H. sapiens (H); . Nature, modified/disorganized by H. sapiens: Products (P); +P +H = -R, -P -H = R, R+P / H, etc. Nature Darwin Resources Humans Products closedmasssyste m (ΔU+pΔV)/T≥ΔQ/T=ΔS nature selects unfit don’ tsurvice
  • 2. Laws Nature Man Products closedmasssyste m (ΔU+pΔV)/T≥ΔQ/T=ΔS Einstein In any contest with nature, man will loose. The laws of man must obey the laws of nature - which science discovers. inanyc ontest with science politics willloose
  • 3. Earthhigh-level REALITIES +H +P = -R 1. No extraterrestrial imports except sunlight For sustainable human development, half of all products currently consumed should be imported to Earth. Excepting freshwater, this would require 8.9 million containers arriving on 1,800 extraterrestrial ships - every day. 2. No extraterrestrial emigrations To keep the current terrestrial human population from increasing, 1 ferry carrying 1,000 people would have to leave Earth every 7 minutes - that’s 80 million extraterrestrial emigrations per year. entropy, usefulness made unavailable closed mass system - finite resources -H +P R
  • 4. Homo sapiens - Science Politics Reality My Planet 772 m forestland 702m grazingland 472 m cropland 202 m shrubland 182 m barrenland 80 meters Clo sed mass system Entropy- usefuln essmadeunavailable My Planet is very small - yours is too - 80 meters across, that’s the size of the average human’s land and fresh- water - 80 meters, to make every thing, for all time. My goal for my planet is another 5,000 years of civilizations, so my Laws will be those of nature-science: 1. Don’t make Products-Babies (closed mass, entropy, etc.). 2. If you must, make one, the best (minimize mass-energy use) that lasts and is shared (maximize time-space). What laws will you make for your planet?...
  • 5. 1 ATMOSPHERE science initiative endorsed by eminent scientists from every discipline and part of the planet (see partial list below), about whom IPCC Chair Dr. Rajendra Pachauri wrote: 'In conclusion let me say I greatly admire what you are doing, which makes you not only unique scientists but great leaders of human society." Dr. Yuan Lee, Nobel Prize winner and President of the International Council for Science (ICSU) Dr. Olive Shisana, President of the International Social Sciences Council (ISSC) Dr. Ivo Slaus, President of the World Academy of Arts and Sciences (WAAS) Dr. Jacob Palis, I.P. President of The World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) Dr. Mohamed Hassan, co-Chair Global Network of Academies of Science (IAP) Dr. Daya Reddy, co-Chair of the InterAcademy Panel (IAC) (+ Pres SAAS) Dr. Gunter Stock, President of All European Academies (ALLEA) Dr Lars Walloe, President of the Academia Europaea Dr. Won-Hoon Park, President of the Association of Academies and Societies of Sciences in Asia (AASSA) Dr. Ahmadou Ndiaye, President of the African Academy of Science (AAS) Dr. Berhanu Abegaz, Executive Director of the African Academy of Science (AAS) Dr. Robin Crewe, President of the Network of African Science Academies (NASAc) Dr. Juan Asenjo, co-Chair InterAmerican Network of Academies of Science (IANAS) Dr. Claudio Bifano, President Academia de Ciencias de America Latina (ACAL) Dr. Keto Mshigeni, Vice President of The World Academy of Science (TWAS) Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman, President of the Network of Academies of Sciences in Islamic Countries (NASIC) Dr. Abdel Salam Majali, President of the Islamic World Academy of Sciences (IAS) Dr. Mouneef Zo'ubi, Secretary General Islamic World Academy of Sciences (IAS); Dr. Trevor Alleyne, President of the Caribbean Academy of Sciences (CAS) Dr. Nelson Moreno Ceballos, President of the Caribbean Scientific Union (CCC) Dr. Kazu-yuki Tatsumi, President International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) Dr. Alik T.Ismail-Zadeh, Secretary General of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG); Dr. Nils Stenseth, President of the International Union of Biology (IUB) Dr. Gregory Petsko, President International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Dr. Roland Oberhänsli President International Union of Geological Sciences Dr. Michael Burawoy, President of the International Sociological Association (ISA) Dr. Sathasivian Saths Cooper, President of the International Union of Psychological Science (IUPsyS) Dr. Andrew Spiegel, Vice President of the International Union of Anthropological and Ethnological Sciences (IUAES) Dr. Thomas Reuter, Founding chair World Council of Anthropological Associations Dr. Roseanne Diab, Executive Officer Academy of Science South Africa (ASSAf) Dr. Oyewale Tomori, President of the Nigerian Academy of Science (NAS) Dr. Francis Allotey, President of the Ghana Academy of Arts & Sciences (GAAS) Dr Ahmedou Ndiaye, President Senegal Academie des Sciences et Techniques (SAST) Dr. Samuel Domngang, President of the Cameroon Academy of Sciences (CAS) Dr. Rafael Munavu, President of the Kenya National Academy of Science (KNAS) Dr. Ester Mwaikambo, President of the Tanzania Academy of Sciences (TAAS) Dr. Demissie Habte, President of the Ethiopia Academy of Sciences (EAS) Dr. Paul Mugambi, President of the Uganda National Academy of Sciences (UNAS) Dr David Mutekanga, Executive Secr. Uganda National Academy of Sciences (UNAS) Dr. Mwananyanda Mbikusita Lewanika, President Zambia Academy of Science (ZaAS) Dr. Christopher Mutambirwa, President of the Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences (ZAS) Dr. Rajaona Andriamananjara, President Madagascar National Academy of Arts, Letters and Sciences Dr. Jorg Hacker, President of the German Academy of Sciences Dr. Nils Stenseth, President of the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters Dr. Olavi Nevanllina, President of the Council of Finish Academies Dr. Gunter Stock, President of the Union of German Academies of Sciences and Humanities and President of the Berlin Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman, President of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences (PAS) Dr. Sung Hyun Park, President Korean Academy of Science and Technology (KAST) Dr. Mesbahuddin Ahmad, President Bangladesh Academy of Science (BAS) Dr. Surendra Raj Kafle, Chancellor Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST) Dr Batbold Enkhtuvshin, President of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences (MAS) Dr Imad Khatib, Secretary General of the Palestine Academy of Sciences Dr. Ruth Arnon, President of the Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities Dr. William Padolina, President National Academy of Science and Technology Philippines (NASTP) Dr. James McCarthy, President of the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) Dr. Jacob Palis, President of the Brazilian Academy of Science (BAS) Dr. Juan Asenjo, President of the Academia de Ciencias Chilena Dr. Claudio Bifano, President of the Academia de Ciencias Fisicas, Matematicas and Naturales Venezuala Dr. José Franco, President Mexico Academia of Ciencias (MAC) Dr. Enrique Acevedo, President of the Guatamala Academia de Ciencias, Medicas, Fisicas y Naturales Dr. Roberto Cignoli, President of the Academía Nacional de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales Argentina Dr. Milciades Mejia, President of the Dominican Republic Academia de Ciencias Dr. Jorge A. Huete-Pérez, President Nicaraguan Academy of Sciences Dr. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsacker, President Club of Rome Dr. Bill McKibben, President 350.org Dr Eric Chivian, recipient Nobel Peace Prize, Center for Health and Global Environment... among many other eminent global scientists Biology
  • 7. UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2014
  • 8. UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2014 2°C 247,535,143,119,442
  • 9. 2°C 2°C the solution the problem 2°C emission limit - gigatonnes kilograms C 400% over limit - zero 2035 247,535,143,152,323
  • 10. we are part of the problemLimit global warming to 2°C solutionLimit our national emissions to 2°C
  • 11. Dr. Rajendra Pachauri IPCC Chair 65% of our carbon limit compatible with a 2°C goal already used AR5 WGI SPM Amount Used 1870-2011: 515 GtC Amount Remaining: 275 GtCTotal Carbon Limit: 790 GtC 247 543 2014 69% The window for action is rapidly closing closed = 2035 1 Dec 2014 UNFCCC COP20 IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report 247,535,143,112,129
  • 12. Science: CLIMATE CHANGE is the urgent, defining, imperative issue of our time - because it is destabilization and destruction of the life support system upon which everything depends - food, water, air, temperature, health, safety, security, jobs, economic growth, everything. + 8 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 0.0 2°C
  • 13. Dr. Thomas Stocker IPCC co-chair Physical Science Dr. Reto Knutti IPCC coordinating lead author Physical Science Dr. Shreekant Gupta IPCC coordinating lead author Mitigation Dr. Youba Sokona IPCC co-chair Mitigation Dr. Rajendra Pachauri IPCC chair Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scientists Solutions have been available for 114 years! Act now... 2°C H O -+ 1900: electric cars solar cells wind turbines hydro power geothermal energy hydrogen fuel cells 1900, a scientist wrote: “The Sun’s Powers gathered by photo-electric cells into electrical storehouses, the total extinction of combustion engines, filth and smoke - a Blessed Vision!”
  • 14. THIS BABY WILL LIVE TO BE ►It is science that brings our medicines and our long life - and our smart phones, computers, cars, planes, satellites, space travel, nearly everything of modern life. ►And the same science now warns that unless humanity stops emissions now, we will destroy our life support system upon which everything depends - food water, air, temperature, health, safety, security, jobs, economic growth, everything. ►So heed the doctors, the scientists - get well, survive and thrive, live long, happy lives. *because of SCIENCE - knowledge, evidence, consensus. Climate change - heed doctors scientists + 8 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 0.0 2°C
  • 15. UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2014 Limit global warming to 2°C* 2°C *2010 COP16 Cancún agreements: future global warming should be limited to below 2°C (3.6°F) relative to preindustrial level,“1.5°C dangerous destabilization” has already happened, see following. + 8 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 0.0
  • 16. For 2°C, limit all anthropogenic emissions from now to 2100 to: 2°C Climate change has 1 cause: emissions 1 solution: limit gigatonnes kilograms carbon 247,535,143,196,781
  • 17. 2°C Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon 247,535,143,197,764
  • 18. 2°C 2°C To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon solution DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis 27 Sep 2013 IPCC, approved by the governments of the world: To likely limit global warming to 2°C over pre- industrial levels, accounting for non-CO2 forcings, limit all anthropogenic emissions to 260 gigatonnes of carbon between 27 Sep 2013 and 2100. Per human this means a limit of about 30,800 kgs in emissions from consumption of goods and services. problem gigatonnes C 247,535,143,190,096 247
  • 19. 1.5°C dangerous destabilization has already happened To avoid catastrophe for everyone there is now 1 objective: 2°C 2°C increasing 1 gigatonne every 34 days gigatonnes kilograms carbon In 2013, COP19, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were such, that unless removed, 1.5°C global warming will happen. To likely limit global warming to 1.5°C, emit nothing, & remove from the atmosphere 12,464,856,863,837
  • 20. 2°C It took about 155 years, 1860 to 2014, to put about 540 gigatonnes C in the atmosphere; at current trends it will take a mere 21 years to put up another 247. Cumulative emissions 1860 to now Cumulative emissions are the cause of climate change 1860, President Abraham Lincoln and officers, American Civil War 155 years - gigatonnes kg C 21 years - gigatonnes kg C 542,972,506,033,015 247,027,493,693,215
  • 21. 2°C 1.1 million Eiffel Towers 1 gigatonne = 100,000 Eiffel Towers, every minute 2 Eiffel Towers are emitted At current trends, from COP20 2014 to COP21 2015, 11 gigatonnes of carbon will be emitted, destabilizing the human life support system upon which everything depends. From Lima to Paris in equivalent emissions C gigatonnes kilograms C 247,027,493,696,520
  • 22. ► every minute 20 million kg C emissions ► every hour 1.2 billion kg ► every day 30 billion kg ► every 34 days 1 gigatonne ► every year 11 gigatonnes ► in 21 years 247 gigatonnes - time is up: 2°C The clock is ticking time is running out 2°C ,535,143,110,441247
  • 23. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - Conference 2014 too much realityPresentationMichael Wadleigh, scientist Oscar winner 247,535,143,159,962
  • 24. 2°C *2010 COP16 Cancún agreements: future global warming should be limited to below 2°C (3.6°F) relative to preindustrial level. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change For 20 years gas concentrations have not been stabilized, dangerous interference has not been prevented, no progress has been made toward the Objective, only regress... There is only 1 objective UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. To limit global warming to 2°C* limit emissions to *COP16 gigatonnes kilograms carbon 247,535,143,143,736
  • 25. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change • Emissions reached a new record high in 2013. • Between 1990 and 2013 there was a 34% increase in the warming effect on our climate. • CO2 levels increased more between 2012 and 2013 than during any other year since UNFCCC began, 1992. • Far from falling, emissions increased last year at the fastest rate since UNFCCC’s founding. • We must reverse this trend, reign in the relent- less rise by cutting emissions across the board, which has not been done in the time of UNFCCC. • We are running out of time. There are only about 20 years until there will be enough emis- sions in the atmosphere, which if not removed will cause 2°C warming. • IPCC and WMO provide the science for deci- sion making. • We have the knowledge and the tools for action to keep temperature increase within 2°C. • Laws of physics are not negotiable, laws of man are. Agree and limit emissions for 2°C now. • Give our children and grandchildren a future. • Use the science. Pleading ignorance can no longer be an excuse for not acting... “Give our children a future... Pleading ignorance can no longer be an excuse for inaction... Laws of physics are not negotiable” Dr Michel Jarraud WMO Secretary General 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Long-lived greenhouse gases CO21.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.0 Year Radiativeforcing(W/m2 ) WMO 9 Sep 2014
  • 26. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Long-livedgreenhousegases UNFCCC Conference Year Location Negotiation Outcome Emission Outcome CO2 parts per million Emission Outcome Gigatonnes of Carbon per year Emission Outcome Limit for 2°C Gigatonnes of Carbon COP 1 1995 Berlin Berlin Mandate 360 8 415 COP 2 1996 Geneva Geneva Ministerial Declaration Noted 362 8 407 COP 3 1997 Kyoto Kyoto Protocol 363 9 400 COP 4 1998 Buenos Aires Buenos Aires Plan of Action 365 8 391 COP 5 1999 Bonn Bonn Agreement 368 8 383 COP 6 2000 The Hague Bonn Agreements Consensus 369 8 375 COP 7 2001 Marrakesh Marrakesh Ministerial Declaration Adopted 370 8 367 COP 8 2002 Delhi Declaration on Climate Change & Sustainable Development 373 8 359 COP 9 2003 Milan Climate Change Fund & Least Development Countries Fund 375 8 351 COP 10 2004 Buenos Aires Complete Marrakesh Accords 377 9 343 COP 11 2005 Montreal Global Environmental Facility Guidelines 378 9 334 COP 12 2006 Nairobi Nairobi Framework Welcomed 381 9 325 COP 13 2007 Bali Bali Roadmap 382 10 316 COP 14 2008 Poznan Adaptation Fund 385 9 307 COP 15 2009 Copenhagen Copenhagen Accord 387 9 297 COP 16 2010 Cancun Cancun Agreements 389 10 288 COP 17 2011 Durban Durban Platform for Enhanced Action 391 10 278 COP 18 2012 Doha Doha Amendments to the Kyoto Protocol 393 11 268 COP 19 2013 Warsaw Warsaw Outcomes Objective Progress ? 396 11 257 COP 20 2014 Lima 400 11 247 1.5°C GHG concentra- tions likely reached in 2013 UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
  • 27. Islamic State Ebola Immigration Recession 2°C “Terrorism, instability, inequality, disease - there is one issue that will define this century, the catastrophe of climate change...” and we do nothing to stop it. There is 1 Objective Destabilization
  • 28. catastrophe - and we do nothing to stop it There is 1 Objective Destabilization
  • 29. ALIVE DEAD 2°C is the difference between life and death. Save your child’s life - get the temperature down now: the medicine: 1 kg C per person per day to 2100 - now 4 kg. Life threatening emergency 400% over limit > 100% on limit + 8 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 0.0 2°C °F °C37 98.6 40 104 1 kg C / cap / day to 2100 2°C 247,535,143,109,130
  • 30. 2°C °F °C37 98.6 40 104 makes all the difference in life: 37°C is normal human temperature, 40°C is death. 247 gigatonnes of emissions is a lot: 1 kilogram of carbon per person per day from now until 2100, 86 years. 1 kg C / cap / day to 2100
  • 31. Listen to the best scientists: climate change is deadly, life-threatening. To limit the change to 2°C, limit emissions per person per day to 1 kg C between now and 2100. 1 kg C / cap / day to 2100 400 % overlimit 2°C 247,535,143,149,458
  • 32. UN Climate Conference 2014 2°CPeru cannot, Peru must not fail - if we continue as we are, climate change will be a catastrophe. UNFCCC has 1 Objective: Opening ceremony The Objective reality is that for 20 years we have not stabilized emissions - but the greater reality is that highly profitable solutions have been available for decades - to build a non- emission, non-destruction economy that can last for centuries. Now finally let’s do it... TO SUCCEED ADMIT FAILURE UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. To limit global warming to 2°C* limit emissions to *COP16 gigatonnes kilograms carbon COP20 President Manuel Pulgar-Vidal 247,535,143,141,743
  • 33. There is 1 Objective STABILIZATION 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 DE-STABILIZATIONgigatonnes C per year long-lived greenhouse gases +8 +8 +9 +8 +8 +8 +8 +8 +9 +9 +9 +9 +10 +9 +9 +10 +10 +11 +11 +11 ? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 COP 20 + 10 ? + 9 ? + 8 ? COP 2°C gigatonnes kilograms carbon Humanity is 400% over limit for 2°C, zero is 2035, 21 years. At current trends +1.1%/yr emission increase: 247,535,143,140,562
  • 34. Guide to Lima COP20: there is 1 Objective UNFCCC, Article II, Objective: “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. To limit global warming to 2°C* limit emissions to 400% over limit - zero 2035 *COP16 gigatonnes kilograms carbon 2°C Lima cannot, must not fail. Forests Cities Oceans Gender Adaptation Health Indiginous Finance MountainsRenewables Jobs IndustryAgriculture Poverty Economy Water Efficiency Energy 247,535,143,141,386
  • 35. Guide to UNFCCC: there is 1 Objective2°C Forests Cities Oceans Gender Adaptation Health Indiginous Finance MountainsRenewables Jobs IndustryAgriculture Poverty Economy Water Efficiency Energy stabilize gases prevent danger 400% over limit 2°C emission limit gigatonnes kg C 247,535,143,140,253
  • 36. 2°C Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C. At current trends +1.1%/yr emission increase: Humanity is 400% over limit, zero is 2035, only 21 years. To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon EMISSION LIMIT 2°C I’m for Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General gigatonnes C 247,535,143,195,727 247
  • 37. 2°C 193 Gross National Incomes add up to 1 Global $GNI. Humanity’s economy is growing 2.2% per year. ECONOMIC GROWTH I’m for Global Gross National Income $ increasing 2.2% /yr $99+trillion 99,342,602,450,348
  • 38. 2°C President Barack Obama United States Chancelor Angela Merkel Germany Prime Minister Narendra Modi India President Xi Jinping China President Goodluck Jonathan Nigeria My GNI /cap is $ 52,308 My GNI /cap is $ 43,049 My GNI /cap is $ 11,477 My GNI /cap is $ 5,150 My GNI /cap is $ 5,353 Global Gross National Income $ 193 Gross National Incomes add up to 1 Global $GNI Humanity: $13,723 GNI /cap, economic growth 2.2% per year increasing 2.2% /yr VoicesVoices99,342,602,451,169
  • 39. 2°C To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C. Humanity is 400% over limit, zero is 2035, only 21 years. President Barack Obama United States Chancelor Angela Merkel Germany Prime Minister Narendra Modi India President Xi Jinping China President Goodluck Jonathan Nigeria I’m 888% over limit for 2oC I’m 468% over limit for 2oC I’m 134% over limit for 2oC I’m 30% of the limit for 2oC I’m 1,398% over limit for 2oC VoicesVoices,535,143,182,371247
  • 40. “America’s priority is jobs, economic growth.” If a dome were put over America, US emissions are so great that at current trends atmospheric gas concentrations causing 2°C warming would happen in just 6 years, 2020 - then rapidly 4°C, 8°C warming, the end of the US as we know it. If high per capita emitting countries could not export their emissions and had to “stew in their own juices”, it seems certain they would stop their climate changing emissions immediately. What if there were no emission exports? Stewing in one’s own juices 2°C
  • 41. No emission imports If a dome had been put over Africa a few years ago to protect it from emissions from other continents, African emissions are so small that global warming might never happen there. Of course there is no dome - and disastrous climate changes are already happening to Africans, the deaths and destructions are caused by other nations’ exported emissions...
  • 42. 2°C Energy use is the principle source of climate changing emissions. • By 1900 solar cells, wind turbines, hydro power, geothermal energy, hydrogen fuel cells, electric cars (to name a few) were all in use. • In 1990, 90 years later all solar, wind, hydro, geothermal NON- emitting energy had risen to be only a very small 3% of total primary energy supply (tpes). • Currently, extraordinarily, all global solar-wind-hydro-geo energy remains just 3% of tpes: a zero increase in 25 years. • In 1990 NON-emitting nuclear energy was 6%, currently it has fallen to just 5% of tpes. • This means that currently global coal, oil, gas, bio* EMITTING energy has risen to be an over- whelming 92% of global tpes. * Bio energy, 10% tpes, as practiced is NOT sustainable with substantial emission, pollution and health hazards. coal 29% oil 32% gas 21% bio 10%* EMITTING energy 92% tpes (25 years) solar wind hydro geo 3% nuclear 5% NON-EMITTING energy 8% tpes To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon 2°C 1900 247,535,143,185,323
  • 43. To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon 2°C Climate change has 1 cause: emissions 1 solution: limit. coal 29% oil 32% gas 21% bio 10% EMITTING energy 92% tpes solar wind hydro geo 3% NON-EMITTING energy 8% tpes for humanity President Barack Obama United States Chancelor Angela Merkel Germany Prime Minister Narendra Modi India President Xi Jinping China President Goodluck Jonathan Nigeria 2% My solar-wind- hydro-geo is 3% My solar-wind- hydro-geo is 3% My solar-wind- hydro-geo is 2% My solar-wind- hydro-geo is 1% My solar-wind- hydro-geo is nuclear 5% VoicesVoices247,535,143,180,547
  • 44. EMISSION REDUCTION NOW example: ► In just 5 years, high technology pro- duction of US WWII aircraft increased from 2,141 to 96,318 per year, 4,500%. ► The war was won - the world’s most advanced, high tech economy was built. ► The same can happen now - rapidly build an innovative, robust, inexhaust- ible, renewable economy that will last. solar wind hydro geo nuclearNON-EMISSION ENERGY PISTOL PACKIN MAMAS 1,400% over 2°C limit, my non-emitting energy is only 10% No problem! Increase non-emitting energy only 1,200%! 2°C ROSIE RIVETERS 247,535,143,150,107
  • 45. 2°C ►Combustion, emission coal-oil-gas-bio energy - the principle cause of climate change - currently causes nearly a half million deaths per year from extreme weather-temperature, floods, storms, food-water shortages, disease increase,etc. ►Additionally coal-oil-gas-bio energy accidents cause thousands of deaths each year. ►Long-life climate changing gases last thousands of years - and 14.9 million times more “waste” just in CO2, to Carbon-Capture-Store, than nuclear since 1960. coal oil gas bio 92%: emitting energy nuclear 5%: non-emitting energy Nuclear vs coal-oil-gas-bio energy 419,000+ 0 70 deaths per year - radiation, etc. ►Non-combustion, non-emission nuclear energy causes no climate change deaths. ►Since its inception in 1960, nuclear energy has caused an average of 70 deaths per year due to accidents, radiation. ►Long-life radiation lasts thousands-millions of years - but a fraction of the “waste” of CO2. climate change deaths per year
  • 46. 2°C All climate actions must add up to 1 global emission limit for 2°C To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon & Forests INCLUSION ENERGY 30,600 Peruvians provided with solar. Fight energy poverty. Forests Cities Oceans Gender Adaptation Health Indiginous Finance MountainsRenewables Jobs IndustryAgriculture Poverty Economic Growth Water Efficiency There is 1 Objective: stabilization Energy 247,535,143,188,955
  • 47. To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon • UN “Very High Developed” live 21 years longer, have 2.8 times the education, 32 times the money - and caused an extraordinary 73 times the emissions of Low Developed. • 16.6% of humanity - the best educated, healthiest, wealthiest, the Highest Developed - cause 62% of cumulative emissions, the cause of climate change. • The 16% Least Developed humans cause a miniscule 0.8%. • 57% of humanity - in 141 African, Latin American and Southern Asian countries - cause only 21% of emissions. High - Medium - Low Developed Michael Bloomberg United States Ban Ki-moon South Korea Mary Robinson Ireland John Kufour Ghana Barack Obama United States Angela Merkel Germany Narendra Modi India Xi Jinping China Goodluck Jonathan Nigeria Very High Developed “Very High Developed” are 977% over limit Very High Development VoicesVoices 247,535,143,178,142
  • 48. Envoy Michael Bloomberg United States UN Sec.Gen. Ban Ki-moon South Korea Envoy Mary Robinson Ireland Envoy John Kufour Ghana Donation day: $.27 + 14 kg year: $100 + 4,962 kg Donation day: $.10 + 11 kg year: $36 + 3,934 kg Donation day: $.50 + 9 kg year: $182 + 3,274 kg to adapt to Very High emissions: 1/4 of 1 cent per person I donate 14 kgs and 27 cents each day I donate 11 kgs and 10 cents each day I donate 9 kgs and 50 cents each day I receive 1/4 of 1 cent each day Each day on average UN “Very High Developed” donate 36 cents in total “Official Development Assistance”, plus a “donation” of 10 kilograms of climate changing emissions (see data / maps). Each day for climate change “compensation”, the “Most Vulnerable and Exposed”, including Africans, receive 1/4 of one cent per person from the Very High Developed. This may increase 10 fold (to $100 billion), each person will then get 2.5 cents per day. Emissions and Money 2°C VoicesVoices
  • 49. China India Nigeria Brazil Germany EU28 Humanity Human Development - UNDP 2014 Very High High Medium Low High Very High Very High Education - school expectancy 16.5 years 12.9 years 11.7 years 9.0 years 15.2 years 16.3 years 16.1 years 12.2 years Health - life expectancy 78.9 years 75.3 years 66.4 years 52.5 years 73.9 years 80.7 years 80.1 years 70.8 years Living standards - $ GNI / year $ 52,308 $ 11,477 $ 5,150 $ 5,353 $ 14,275 $ 43,049 $ 33,844 $ 13,723 Emissions cumulative - kgs / cap Emission limit 2oC - % of limit1 1,398% 468% 134% 30% 195% 888% 745% 401% Emission limit 2oC - year limit zero1 2020 2033 2081 2315 2060 2023 2025 2035 Non-emitting energy - % tpes2 10% > 12% 1% > 4% 2% > 3% 0.6% > 0.4% 6% > 14% 12% > 11% 14% > 17% 9% > 8% Solar-Wind-Hydro-Geo 2% > 2% 1% > 3% 2% > 2% 1% > 0.4% 0% > 1% 0% > 3% 2.3% > 3.6% 3% > 3% Nuclear 8% > 10% 0% > 1% 0.5% > 1% 0% > 0% 6% > 13% 11% > 8% 12% > 13.5% 6% > 5% Emitting energy - % tpes2 90% > 88% 99% > 96% 98% > 97% 99% > 99.6% 94% > 86% 88% > 89% 86% > 83% 91% > 92% Bio 3% > 4% 23% > 7% 42% > 23% 80% > 81% 44% > 29% 1% > 9% 3% > 8% 10% > 10% Gas 23% > 27% 2% > 4% 3% > 6% 5% > 9% 0% > 9% 15% > 21% 18% > 23% 19% > 21% Oil 40% > 37% 13% > 17% 20% > 23% 16% > 9% 46% > 43% 36% > 34% 38% > 34% 37% > 32% Coal 24% > 20% 61% > 67% 33% > 45% 0% > 0% 3% > 5% 36% > 25% 27% > 18% 25% > 29% Energy total primary supply - Mtoe 1,915 > 2,171 865 > 2,922 318 > 794 67 > 134 82 > 293 357 > 323 1,667 > 1,683 8,774 > 13,172 195 national emission limit laws must add up to the 1 global limit To limit global warming to 2oC limit emissions to Humanity is 400% over limit1, zero is 2035, energy supply is 92% emittives2 decreasing emission limit gigatonnes kilograms carbon1 1IPCC & 195 governments: To likely limit global warming to 2 o C above preindustrial levels, limit emissions to 260 gigatonnes 2013-2100. Above in real-time is the limit now. To be on-limit, emissions should be minus 3% per year; however at current trends, plus 1.1%, zero will be reached, not in 2100 but in 2035, only 21 years from now. Humanity is 396% over limit to likely limit global warming to 2 o C. Per human this means a limit of about 30,800 kilograms of carbon emissions from consumption of goods and services, 2013- 2100. 2The 1st number is 1990 % of total primary energy supply (tpes), the 2nd number is current % tpes: for 25 years total primary energy supply has been a miniscule 3% solar-wind-hydro-geo non-emitting energy; plus currently 5% nuclear non-emitting energy, plus an overwhelming 92% coal-oil-gas-bio emitting energy, the principal cause of climate change. Note: bio energy as practiced is not sustainable with substantial emission, pollution and health hazards; carbon capture & storage, geoengineering, etc. are not yet significant / realities - and may never be. 1 E mission Lim it 1 A tmosphe re 195 Countries USA Medium Emissions consumption - kgs/cap/yr1 (1990> 2012) (1990> 2012) 2°C “Pragmatic and practical... The goal is to know what national emissions are... The essential task is to transform energy from high to low carbon... in developed and developing countries.” Todd Stern, US Special Envoy on Climate Change 247,535,143,117,601 317,728 32,886 9,636 4,366 17,724 283,761 324,967 50,529 25,907 28,995 30,266 30,015 29,980 27,177 27,488 29,253
  • 50. “If every Chinese lives like Americans, it will be a disaster for the world.” Dr. Dahe Qin, co-chair Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WGI, Physical Science 62 persons / auto Human development: living standards - climate changing emissions 1 Cumulative emissions per capita / 2 Emissions from consumption of goods & services, limit remaining for 2oC per capita - in kg/mgC Americans Chinese Indians 20 50 living standard 1 Very High Developed set the standards all follow Per capita: $ GNI ► Emissions Solutions 1 2 1 2 VoicesVoices 317,728,026,507,796 32,886,022,037,680 9,636,386,197,194 25,907,158,807,784 28,995,498,042,963 30,266,869,473,463
  • 51. 2°C To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C. Humanity is 400% over limit, zero is 2035, only 21 years. President Barack Obama United States I’m 1,398% over limit for 2°C President Xi Jinping China I’m 468% over limit for 2°C VoicesVoices US-China sign historic emission pledge Americans will cut emissions 26%-28% by 2025 com- pared to 2005, Chinese will peak emissions by 2030. 12 Nov 2014 No mention of 2°C or 247 GtC limit, what do the pledges mean?: ►America’s over limit will go down 198%, from 1,398% to 1,200%. ►China’s over limit will go up 82%, from 468% to 550%. ►US will reach its emission limit not in 2100 but 2021, China in 2028. ►By 2025 Americans, 4.5% of the population, will have emitted 7% of the global limit for humanity to last till 2100 in just 11 years. ►By 2030 Chinese, 19% of the population, will have emitted 23% of the global limit for humanity to last till 2100 in just 16 years. ►By 2025 US, 4.5%, will have emitted 16 gigatonnes of carbon. ►By 2030 China, 19%, will have emitted 51 gigatonnes of carbon. 1,200% 550% ,535,143,182,371247
  • 52. Agreement = Lima COP20 Climate Conference 2014 Outcome 2°CLimit = = emission limit for 2°C gigatonnes kilograms carbon247,535,143,176,167
  • 53. 2°C Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon EMISSIONBOARD 247,535,143,197,764
  • 54. 2°C Cumulative emissions per capita in tons Carbon (tC)(from energy use by 2013) 18% of humanity cause 71% of emissions, 267 GtC, >80 tC / cap, 46 countries 30% of humanity cause 21% of emissions, 78 GtC, 23-79 tC / cap, 44 countries 30% of humanity cause 6% of emissions, 23 GtC, 7-22 tC / cap, 33 countries 22% of humanity cause 1% of emissions, 4 GtC, <9 tC / cap, 60 countries 18% ▼ 71% 30% ▼ 21% 30% ▼ 6% 22% ▼ 1% 155 years 21 years It took about 155 years, 1860 to 2014, to put about 540 gigatonnes in the atmo- sphere; at current trends it will take a mere 21 years to put up another 250. Cumulative emissions KILO-micrograms per capita KILO-micrograms per capita KILO-micrograms per capita KILO-micrograms per capita 18% cause 71% Cumulative emissions are the cause of climate change, here they are per capita 22% cause 1% of cumulative / historic emissions of cumulative / historic emissions Cumulative emissions from fossil fuels & cement, total 1860 to present (in GIGATONNES-kilograms) 542,972,505,838,557 247,027,493,657,912 542,972,506,035,141 211,937,789,642,376 38,934,497,723,104 3,171,680,146,487 11,718,578,538,870
  • 55. 2°C 18% ▼ 45% 30% ▼ 40% 30% ▼ 13% 22% ▼ 2%*Emission limit for 2°C ► HUMANITY: 195 governments and IPCC: to likely limit global warming to 2°C accounting for non-CO2 forcings, limit emis- sions to 260 gigatonnes of carbon, 27 Sep 2013 to 2100. ► PER HUMAN this means a limit of about 30,800 kilograms of carbon emissions from combustion of fuels flaring and cement, 27 Sep 2013 to 2100. 18% cause an extraordinary 45% of emissions, 48% cause 85% of emissions, 22% cause a very small 2% of emissions, no climate change at all, 52% cause only 15 % of emissions, no dangerous climate change. 18% cause 45% zero 04.Apr.2023 950% over limit zero 23.Oct.2031 494% over limit zero 28.Jan.2069 160% over limit Climate change has 1 cause: emissions 1 solution: limit - for 2°C 30,800 kgs C per human 27 Sep 2013 to 2100 2°C emission limit per capita from territorial combustion of fuel & cement* 22% cause 2% of territorial emissions from fuels, flaring & cement of territorial emissions from fuel, flaring & cement Emissions from consumption of goods & services per capita 18% of humanity cause 45% of emissions, 950% over 2oC limit, zero 2023, 39 countries 30% of humanity cause 40% of emissions, 412% over 2oC limit, zero 2035, 44 countries 30% of humanity cause 13% of emissions, 138% over 2oC limit, zero 2077, 33 countries 22% of humanity cause 2% of emissions, 51% of 2oC limit, zero 2183, 72 countries KILO-micrograms per capita zero 26.Dec.2266 35% of limit KILO-micrograms per capita KILO-micrograms per capita KILO-micrograms per capita “Zero” means that at current trends the allotted 30,800 kgs C per cap 2013 to 2100 will be emitted by the year indicated. (limits are counting down) 26,819,986,026,207 28,716,234,613,240 30,623,572,804,345 30,104,534,063,508
  • 56. Deaths caused by climate change emissions / emittors in 2010 (from DARA): ► 419,000 total climate change deaths per year for humanity; ► 82% or 161 DPM (Deaths Per Million) are in RED countries; ► 14.0%, 46 DPM are in ORANGE countries; ► 3.7%, 11 DPM are in YELLOW countries; ► 0.1%, 0.1 DPM are in PINK countries - Those who cause climate change die the least - those who don’t die the most. greater than 100, average 161 DPM between 18 & 100, average 46 DPM between 5 & 18, average 11 DPM less than 5, average 0.1 DPM 20% ▼ 4% Climate Change DPM (Deaths Per Million): Climate change death map 30% ▼ 82% 20% ▼ 14% 30% ▼ 0.1% 419,000 deaths per year, 96% in RED and ORANGE countries 400% over limit zero 2035 21 years 2°C247,535,143,132,390
  • 57. 2°C Humanity’s cumulative emissions in KgC 29,400,000,000 kgs added per day Humanity’s emission limit for 2oC in KgC zero is 2035, 394% over limit 96.5% vs 3.5% by Africans If all African emissions were eliminated, 97% of global emissions would still remain - and destroy everyone’s future Climate change - 1 cause: emissions, 1 solution: limit - Climate change solution: emission limit African countries especially must “keep their eyes on the prize” - money from high per capita emitters will NOT stop climate change catastrophe - destruction of the life support system - emission reduction by high per capita emitters will. Africans 15% of humanity, 56 countries: 3.5% of consumption emissions, 82% of the limit for 2oC 2.5% of cumulative emissions, 10 tC per African cumulative emissions per African Africans emissions from consumption per capita limit cumulative emissions per non African Rest of humanity emissions from consumption per capita limit 85.0% ▼ 96.5% / 97.5% 15.0% ▼ 3.5% / 2.5% 542,972,506,032,591 247,027,493,701,010 18,357,75728,9 61,9 64,374,111 30,4 18,976,975 9,8 04,264,247
  • 58. 2°C 24% ▼ 9.5% / 6.5% 9% ▼ 5.5% / 4.0% 15% ▼ 3.5% / 2.6% Africans + Latins 24% of humanity, 87 countries: 9.0% of consumption emissions, 137% over limit 2oC 6.5% of cumulative emissions, 15 tC per African Latin 91.0% vs 3.5% by Africans 5.5% by Latins 9.0% by AfricanLatins If all African and all Latin American consumption emissions were eliminated, 91% of global emissions would still remain - and destroy everyone’s future Climate change - 1 cause: emissions, 1 solution: limit - Blue-green countries especially must “keep their eyes on the prize” - money from high per capita emitters will NOT stop climate change catastrophe -destruction of the life support system - emission reduction by high per capita emitters will. Africans 15% of humanity, 54 countries: 3.5% of consumption emissions, 84% of the limit for 2oC 2.6% of cumulative emissions, 10 tC per African Latin Americans 9% of humanity, 44 countries: 5.5% of consumption emissions, 234% over limit for 2oC 4.0% of cumulative emissions, 25 tC per Latin American cumulative emissions per Latin American Latin Americans emissions from consumption per capita limit cumulative emissions per African Africans emissions from consumption per capita limit cumulative emissions per African Latin American Africans + Latin Americans emissions from consumption per capita limit Humanity’s cumulative emissions in KgC 29,400,000,000 kgs added per day Humanity’s emission limit for 2oC in KgC zero is 2035, 394% over limit Climate change solution: emission limit cumulative emissions non African-Latin American Rest of humanity emissions from consumption per capita limit 542,972,506,032,591 247,027,493,701,010 28,8 21,361,124 66,1 15,984,889 30,4 18,976,983 9,8 04,264,246 83,085,20929,7 22,2 07,366,234 03,797,09229,9 15,9 53,181,030
  • 59. Southern Asians 33% of humanity, 41 countries: 11.7% of consumption emissions, 130% over limit 2oC 6.2% of cumulative emissions, 11 tC per Southern Asian Africans 15% of humanity, 56 countries: 3.5% of consumption emissions, 82% of the limit for 2oC 2.5% of cumulative emissions, 10 tC per African Latin Americans 9% of humanity, 44 countries: 5.5% of consumption emissions, 234% over limit for 2oC 4.0% of cumulative emissions, 25 tC per Latin American These countries especially must “keep their eyes on the prize” - money from high per capita emitters will NOT stop climate change catastrophe -destruction of the life support system - emission reduction by high per capita emitters will. 33% ▼ 11.7% / 6.2% 2°C 57% - 140 countries ▼ 20.7% / 12.7% 9% ▼ 5.5% / 4.0% 15% ▼ 3.5% / 2.5% If all of African, Latin & Southern Asian consumption emissions were eliminated, 79% of global emissions would still remain - and destroy everyone’s future Climate change - 1 cause: emissions, 1 solution: limit - “South” (all above) 57% of humanity, 141 countries: 20.7% of consumption emissions, 133% over limit 2oC 12.7% of cumulative emissions, 13 tC per Southerner cumulative emissions per Latin American Latin America emissions from consumption per capita limit cumulative emissions per African Africa emissions from consumption per capita limit cumulative emissions per Southern Asian SouthernAsia emissions from consumption per capita limit 79.3% vs 3.5% by Africans 5.5% by Latins 11.7% by South Asians 20.7% total Humanity’s cumulative emissions in KgC 29,400,000,000 kgs added per day Humanity’s emission limit for 2oC in KgC zero is 2035, 394% over limit Climate change solution: emission limit cumulative emissions non African-Latin-Asian Rest of humanity emissions from consumption per capita limit 542,972,506,032,591 247,027,493,701,010 28,8 21,361,124 66,1 15,984,889 29,9 03,797,092 15,9 53,181,030 83,085,20929,7 30,4 18,976,983 07,366,23422,2 04,264,2469,8
  • 60. 2°C gigatonneskilograms C Cumulative emissions are the cause of climate change. USA Germany UK China India Nigeria Humanity Humanity onlimit2°C ► ► ► ► ► ► ► 1,398% 888% 795% 468% 134% 30% 400% 100% 2 6 3 83 121 140 66 605% 530% 583% 60% 17% 9% 100% 323tC 283tC 312tC 32tC 9tC 5tC 53tC Lawmaking cumulative / H ►%avg ►rank % of 2oC limit Cumulative emissions per human (shown in micrograms), the others in the top 8 rank: #1 Luxembourg, #4 Belgium , #5 Czech Rep, #7 Estonia, #8 Trinidad & Tobago ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► 155 years 21 years It took about 155 years, 1860 to 2014, to put about 540 gigatonnes in the atmo- sphere, at current trends it will take a mere 21 years to put up another 250. Emissions: cumulative / historic per human counting up began 1860 543,073,661,268,221 542,972,505,839,394 247,027,493,667,917 323,170,402,051,916 283,015,022,290,402 311,608,321,197,871 31,889 9,001 ,427,358,137 4,654 ,804,920,833 53,470 ,538,509,842 52,264 ,766,159,566 ,059,139,731
  • 61. ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► 100% 1,398% 888% 795% 468% 134% 30% 400% 2100 2020 2024 2025 2033 2081 2315 2035 2°CLimit USA Germany UK China India Nigeria Humanity 100% 4.5% 1.2% 0.9% 19.7% 17.5% 2.4% 100% 25% 17.6% 2.8% 1.9% 23.1% 5.8% 0.2% 100% 87 6 9 10 18 66 301 21 2°C 30,800 kg / cap counting down began 27 Sep 2013 Lawmaking % of limit years ►zero pop ►emissions * IPCC: To likely limit global warming to 2oC accounting for nonCO2 forcings, limit emissions to 260 gigatonnes of carbon maximum between 27 Sep 2013 and 2100 = 30,800 kg per human. Emission limit 2°C: consumption of goods & services per human 2°C humanity zero 2035 - 400% over limit 2°C gigatonneskilograms C 247,027,493,726,710 30,352,476,774,377 25,109,863,075,633 27,173,429,984,603 27,447,410,751,469 28,874,973,458,165 30,225,021,172,957 30,646,988,367,634 29,145,769,726,195
  • 62. To finance limiting emissions to 2°C, use the established economic science principle of proportionality: income/ consumption/emissions - tax - are proportionally related per capita. 77% 14% 4% 3% 2% Richest propo rtional 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% Poorest Tax $ Emission Consumption Income per capita $ financing 2°C Tax $ Solutions $ 2°C GNI increasing 2.2% /yr income 99,342,602,450,348
  • 63. economic growth 2°C $ global gross national income increasing 2.2% /yr problem solution cost: 0.06% growth > regained ! preserve the life support system 2°C emission limit gigatonnes kilograms C 99,342,602,449,210 247,027,493,694,004
  • 64. 2°C Emissions of 193 nations must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon“It is a race against time.”François Hollande, President France “Everything must be done to reduce emissions radically… to limit global warming to below 2°C.” Humanity is 400% over limit, zero is 2035, only 21 years. Solutions have been available for decades, act now. 247,535,143,197,764
  • 65. Noproblem!2°C limit 2°C 2035 - 400% over limit 2°C 247,535,143,151,523
  • 66. Bruce Springsteen i am part of the problemLimit global warming to 2°C Limit my national emissions to 2°C solution
  • 67. problem i am part of the solutionLimit global warming to 2°C Limit my national emissions to 2°C
  • 68. we are part of the problem / solutionlimit global warming to 2°C limit our national emissions to 2°C
  • 69. Best educated, healthiest, wealthiest, highest emitters Limit my nation’s emissions to 2°C Limit my nation’s emissions to 2°C Limit my nation’s emissions to 2°C Limit my nation’s emissions to 2°C Limit my nation’s emissions to 2°C Limit my nation’s emissions to 2°C Limit my nation’s emissions to 2°C Limit my nation’s emissions to 2°C Limit my nation’s emissions to 2°C Limit my nation’s emissions to 2°C Limit my nation’s emissions to 2°C
  • 70. Emit unto others as you would have them emit unto you
  • 71. Climate change global warming There is 1 Objective: Stabilization 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2°C Destabilization 247,535,143,135,515
  • 72. Peru will succeed 2°C 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 There is 1 Objective: Stabilization Destabilization 247,535,143,142,853
  • 73. UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2014 2°C 247,535,143,119,442
  • 76. OUTCOME AGREEMENT = 2°C LIMIT = = emission limit for 2°C gigatonneskilograms carbon UN Climate Conference 2014 247,535,143,179,293
  • 77. UN Climate Change Conference • PARTIES Negotiations Venue 2°C Emissions of 196 Parties must add up to 1 global limit for 2°C To limit global warming to 2°C limit emissions to gigatonnes kilograms carbon Mountains & Water Forests Sustainable Cities Energy OceansObservers & Press Indiginous Peoples • VOICES Knowledge Pavilions UNFCCC objective: stabilization gases prevention danger247,535,143,149,700
  • 78. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis (do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years) approved by the governments of the world updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C Jose Barroso, EC President 23 Sep 2014 “IPCC scientists tell us that 2°C is possible - but only if we get serious... and lead. It is a test we cannot afford to fail.”
  • 79. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis (do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years) approved by the governments of the world updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C Jean-Claude Juncker, EC President “I want the European Union to lead the fight against global warming… We owe this to future generations.”
  • 80. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis François Hollande, President France “Everything must be done to reduce emissions radically… to limit global warming to 2°C... to give the world’s young people hope.” 23 Sep 2014 (do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years) approved by the governments of the world updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
  • 81. DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis Angela Merkel, Chancellor Germany “To limit global warming to less than 2°C we need to act quickly and decisively... it is quite literally a question of survival...” (do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years) approved by the governments of the world updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
  • 82. “When offered clear scientific advice… to safeguard the long- term future of our planet and our people, we should seize it.” DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis David Cameron, UK Prime Minister 23 Sep 2014 (do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years) approved by the governments of the world updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
  • 83. “We cannot condemn our children... We know what we have to do to avoid irreparable harm.” DRTHOMASSTOCKER ipccINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON climate change WMO IPCC AR5 Working Group I Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis Barack Obama, US President 23 Sep 2014 (do the math, 2°C will happen in about 20 years) approved by the governments of the world updated from IPCC 2013 WGI PMC Emission limit for 2°C: 790 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions to 2013: -535 gigatonnes C Remaining emissions: 255 gigatonnes C CO2 emissions in 2013: 10.8 gigatonnes C
  • 84. we are part of the problemLimit global warming to 2°C solutionLimit our national emissions to 2°C
  • 85. THE RIGHT TO KNOW
  • 86. 2°C Emission limit now to limit global warming to 2°C Gigatonnes kilograms Carbon GtC EMISSION RATE • The rate of climate change is increasing not decreasing: GHG emissions growth in the last decade, 2000-2010, was larger than in the previous 3 decades, +2.2%/yr vs +1.3%/yr. • Far from falling, atmospheric CO2 increased last year at the fastest rate for nearly 30 years. 1990 20352014 0 250 450 1860:790GtC* Greenhousegasemissions EMISSION LIMIT 2°C • 1860-1990, 130 years, 340 GtC* emitted • 1990-2014, 25 years, 200 GtC emitted - an unmitigated disaster • 2014-2035, 21 years, 250 GtC at current trends = +2°C *GtC, gigatonnes of carbon NON-EMISSION ENERGY • 1900-1990, 90 years, 0 > 3% solar-wind-hydro-geo tpes • 1990-2014, 25 years, 3% solar-wind-hydro-geo, no increase • 1990-2014, 25 years, 6% nuclear declined to 5% • 2014 EMITTING ENERGY: 92% IN SUM • 1990-2014 is an unmitigated disaster • Solutions have been in place for decades • To prevent catastrophe act now... 247,535,143,185,451
  • 87. prof itable solutions Limiting global warming to 2°C is highly profitable ► Economic growth is initially reduced by only 0.06%, from projected 1.6 - 3% growth. ► -0.06% is delayed growth, benefits then increase building a non-combustion, non-emitting, robust, high technology economy that will last. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report <2°C 2°C only 0.06% growth required GNI $ increasing 2.2% /yr 99,342,602,450,348