How can we figure out what is true? Who can we trust? What does Buddhism have to do with fighting fake news?

1. Science and Trust in the Post-Truth Era
Kristin Lindquist, Rationally
kristin@rationally.io
www.rationally.io

2. Oxford Dictionary declared ‘post-truth’
the word of the year for 2016.

3. It has been a long
time coming.

4. No one group
has a monopoly
on unscientific
beliefs.

5. Why are we so
truth-challenged?

6. Let’s play a game…
Science or Fiction!

7. Which is the fiction?
Our most creative
thoughts come when
we're walking.
After 30 years of
dimming, the planet's
surface is
brightening.
As the world warms,
vegetation could
double the frequency
of extremely hot days
experienced.
1 2 3

8. Our most creative
thoughts come when
we're walking.
After 30 years of
dimming, the planet's
surface is
brightening.
As the world warms,
vegetation could
double the frequency
of extremely hot days
experienced.
http://phys.org/news3996.html#jCp http://phys.org/news4035.html http://phys.org/news4028.html

9. Problem with Truth #1
We don’t intuitively know what’s true.

10. Problem with Truth #2
There is so much
to know on any
given topic.

11. Problem with Truth #3
The truth is complex.

12. Problem with Truth #4
Statistics is Weird

13. Birthday Paradox: We have the same birthday? What are the odds?!?

15. So we rely on experts.

16. Who is a trustworthy expert on vaccines?
Lucija Tomljenovic, PhD
Researcher, Immunology
Paul Offit, MD
Pediatrician, Immunology

17. Lucija Tomljenovic, PhD
Researcher, Immunology
● She claims that there is an vaccine-autism link, that
benefit of vaccination is over-stated. She’s against
mandatory vaccines and a key member of the anti-vaxx
movement.
● Has published in Journal of Inorganic Biochemistry,
Immunologic Research, Annals of Medicine (peer-
reviewed, good reputation).
She’s anti-vaccine.

18. “That’s the problem with vaccines. When they work, absolutely
nothing happens. Nothing. Parents go on with their lives, not
once thinking that their child was saved [from countless
diseases].”
“It doesn't even make sense that vaccines would cause autism,
given what we know about autism.”
Paul Offit, MD
Pediatrician, Immunology
He’s pro-vaccine.

19. How do we decide whom to trust?

21. Ironically… the
public actually
trusts scientists.

22. But there is no public consensus on
the scientific consensus.

23. Liberal* perspective on
scientific consensus
Conservative*
perspectives

24. And there is a more critical problem
here...

25. Science is “a process by which to derive the principles of
nature via empirical investigation and constant testing.”*
Dogma is “principles laid down by an authority as
incontrovertibly true.”**
*Oxford Dictionary
**Paraphrase of Lawrence M. Krauss’ definition

26. Science is “a process by which to derive the principles of nature
via empirical investigation and constant testing.”
Dogma is “principles laid down by an authority as incontrovertibly
true.”
?
If we rely on trust in experts...
… are we sufficiently distinguishing science from dogma?

27. What to do?

28. Interact with
Science as a
Method
#1
Develop
Meta-
Cognition
#2
Debate
Wisely and
Kindly
#3

29. Rule #1
Whenever possible, interact with
Science as a Method
not as a dogma.

30. “Science says…”

31. There’s no
“science says”
in the scientific
method.

32. 1. Visitors ask questions.
2. Users submit evidence from peer-reviewed studies.
3. User vote on the quality and relevance of evidence.

36. Rule #2
Develop Meta-Cognition
Recognize your mind’s tendency to lead you astray.

37. Confirmation Bias

38. Post hoc ergo propter hoc

40. Illusory Truth
People know how they feel
about an event before they know
that the event occurred.*
Source

41. Illusory Superiority
I am more informed.
I am more moral.
I am better at my job.
… and I’m a way better driver.
XKCD

43. Illusory Certainty
“Certainty and similar states of ‘knowing what we know’ arise out
of involuntary brain mechanisms that, like love or anger, function
independently of reason.”
Robert A. Burton, MD
On Being Certain

44. The Bias Blind Spot
The majority of people* think they are
less susceptible to bias than the average
American.
* (of study participants) http://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/10.1287/mnsc.2014.2096

45. Cognitive Dissonance
is
Uncomfortable.
(and that’s okay)

46. Source: Somebody at the seminar

48. “I can live with doubt and uncertainty
and not knowing. I have approximate
answers and possible beliefs and
different degrees of certainty about
different things… It doesn’t frighten me.”
Richard Feynman
Theoretical Physicist @ CalTech

49. Rule #3
Debate Wisely and Kindly

52. Avoid the
Familiarity
Backfire Effect
Skeptical Science

53. Don’t
Overwhelm.
Skeptical Science

54. Fill the Gap.
Skeptical Science

55. **This quote is attributed to many of different people. And I’m not sure if Buddha is really the OG empiricist.

56. In Summary
Interact with
Science as a
Method
#1
Develop
Meta-
Cognition
#2
Debate
Wisely and
Kindly
#3

57. The End
Want to say hi?
kristin@rationally.io