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May 2017RPS Group
The Western Australian Economy and
Property Markets
Chart Pack | May 2017
PO Box 465, Subiaco
Western Australia 6904
W rpsgroup.com.au
Contact
WA Head Office			 p. +61 8 9211 1111
Level 2, 27-31 Troode Street	 w. www.rpsgroup.com.au
WEST PERTH WA 6005	
Tim Connoley			
Technical Director - Economics			
		
About Economics at RPS
RPS is an international consultancy providing world-class local
solutions in energy and resources, infrastructure, environment and
urban growth. Our Economics team is well positioned to undertake
comprehensive analysis of a range of business, community and
government issues and projects. Our key areas of expertise include:
•	 Market advice and analysis;
•	 Due diligence and feasibility assessments;
•	 Strategy and policy development;
•	 Investment evaluations; and
•	 Planning approval support.
RPS Group	 | Chart Pack | May 2017 2
Figure 1 - Population Change,Western Australia
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
-4,000
1,000
6,000
11,000
16,000
21,000
26,000
31,000
PopulationGrowth(p.a.)
ChangeinPopulation(quarterly)
Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration
Net Interstate Migration Annual Growth Source: ABS 3101.0, RPS Group
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
UnemploymentRate
ChangeinEmployment(monthly)
Change in Employment (Trend)
Unemployment Rate (Trend)
Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj.) Source: ABS 6202.0, RPS Group
Figure 2 - Labour Market,Western Australia
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
RetailTurnoverGrowth(p.a.)
Western Australia Australia Source: ABS 8501.0, RPS Group
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
HomeLoanRates(p.a.)
Standard Variable Three-Year Fixed
Source: RBA, RPS Group
Figure 3 - RetailTurnover
Figure 5 - Mortgage Rates,Australia
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Food Household
Goods
Department
Stores
Other Retailing Take Away/
Restaurants
RetailTurnoverGrowth(p.a.)
Previous 12 Months Ten-Year Average
Source: ABS 8501.0, RPS Group
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18
CashRate(%)
31-Jan-17 17-Mar-17 Source: ASX, RPS Group
Figure 6 - Cash Rate Expectations,Australia
Figure 4 - RetailTurnover,Western Australia
Western Australian Economy
3RPS Group	 | Chart Pack | May 2017
Figure 7 - Merchandise Exports,Western Australia
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
Price($USpertonne/barrel)
MerhcandiseExportsTrend($millions/month)
Merchandise Exports Iron Ore Price Petroleum Price
62% FE spot
(CFR Tianjin port)
Source: ABS 5368.0, IndexMundi, RPS Group
Crude Oil (Dated
Brent, West Texas
Intermediate and
the Dubai Fateh)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
WagePriceGrowth(p.a.)
Western Australia Australia Source: ABS 6345.0, RPS Group
Figure 8 - Wage Price Index
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
ConsumerPriceIndexGrowth(p.a.)
Perth Australia Source: ABS 6401.0, RPS Group
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Non-ResidentialBuildingWork($million/quarter)
Work Done Building Approvals Source: ABS 8752.0, ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 9 - Consumer Price Index
Figure 11 - Non-Residential Construction,WA
-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
Food
Housing
Education
Accommodation
& Travel
Transport
Health
Household Equipment
& Services
Utilities
Inflation (p.a.)
Ten-year average (p.a.) Previous 12 Months Source: ABS 6401.0, RPS Group
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000
Commercial
Industrial
Education
Aged Care
Health
Entertainment
& Recreation
Short Stay
Accommodation
Value of Work ($ millions)
Previous 12 Months Five-Year Average Source: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 12 - Non-Residential Construction,WA
Figure 10 - Inflation,Western Australia
Western Australian Economy
4RPS Group	 | Chart Pack | May 2017
Figure 13 - Engineering Work,Western Australia
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
EngineeringWork($m/quarter,price-adjusted)
Seasonally Adjusted Trend Source: ABS 8762.0, RPS Group
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
PrivateCapitalExpenditure($millionsp.a.)
Mining Manufacturing Other Industries Source: ABS 5625.0, RPS Group
Figure 14 - Private Capital Expenditure,WA
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
ExplorationExpenditure($millions/quarter)
Mining Petroleum Source: ABS 8412.0, RPS Group
Figure 15 - Exploration Expenditure,Western
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
ChangeinExpenditure(p.a.)
State Final Demand Private Investment
Private Consumption Public Expenditure Source: ABS 5206.0, RPS Group
Figure 16 - Economic Growth,Western Australia
Western Australian Economy
5RPS Group	 | Chart Pack | May 2017
Figure 17 & 18 - Owner Occupier Housing Finance,Western Australia
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Owner-OccupierLoanCommitments(monthly)
Established Dwellings New Dwellings Source: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Owner-OccupierLoanCommitments(monthly)
Upgraders First Home Buyers Source: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
HomeLoanCommitments($millions/month)
Investors Upgraders First Home Buyers Source: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group
Figure 19 - Housing FinanceValue,Western Australia
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
FirstHomeOwnerGrantApplications(monthly)
Established Homes New Dwellings Source: Treasury (WA), RPS Group
Figure 20 - First Home Buyers,Western Australia
Residential Property | WA
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
ResidentialConstruction(dwellingsp.a.)
Houses Commenced Dwellings Commenced
Houses Completed Dwellings Completed Source: ABS 8752.0, ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 21 - Residential Construction,Western Australia
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
BuildingApprovals(dwellings/month)
Houses Other Dwellings Source: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 22 - Building Approvals,Western Australia
6RPS Group	 | Chart Pack | May 2017
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
ResidentialPropertyListings(quarterly)
Source: REIWA, RPS Group
Figure 23 - Property Listings, Metropolitan Perth
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
ResidentialVacantLandListings(monthly)
Source: REIWA, RPS Group
Figure 24 - Land Listings, Metropolitan Perth
Residential Property | Perth
Figure 25 - Property Sales, Metropolitan Perth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Mulit-UnitDwellingSales(weekly)
HouseSales(weekly)
Houses Sold Houses Trend Units Trend Units Sold Source: REIWA, RPS Group
0
50
100
150
200
250
DeveloperLotSalesIndex(weekly)
Sales Trend Rolling Average Source: UDIA Land Snapshot, RPS Group
Figure 26 - Developer Land Sales, Greater Perth
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
BuildingApprovals(dwellings/month)
Houses Other Dwellings Source: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group
Figure 27 - Building Approvals, Greater Perth
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
NumberofLots(annualised)
Applications Lodged Conditional Approvals Final Approvals
Source: WAPC, RPS Group
Figure 28 - Residential Subdivisions, Greater Perth

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RPS Chart Pack May 2017

  • 1. May 2017RPS Group The Western Australian Economy and Property Markets Chart Pack | May 2017 PO Box 465, Subiaco Western Australia 6904 W rpsgroup.com.au Contact WA Head Office p. +61 8 9211 1111 Level 2, 27-31 Troode Street w. www.rpsgroup.com.au WEST PERTH WA 6005 Tim Connoley Technical Director - Economics About Economics at RPS RPS is an international consultancy providing world-class local solutions in energy and resources, infrastructure, environment and urban growth. Our Economics team is well positioned to undertake comprehensive analysis of a range of business, community and government issues and projects. Our key areas of expertise include: • Market advice and analysis; • Due diligence and feasibility assessments; • Strategy and policy development; • Investment evaluations; and • Planning approval support.
  • 2. RPS Group | Chart Pack | May 2017 2 Figure 1 - Population Change,Western Australia 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% -4,000 1,000 6,000 11,000 16,000 21,000 26,000 31,000 PopulationGrowth(p.a.) ChangeinPopulation(quarterly) Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration Annual Growth Source: ABS 3101.0, RPS Group 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 UnemploymentRate ChangeinEmployment(monthly) Change in Employment (Trend) Unemployment Rate (Trend) Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj.) Source: ABS 6202.0, RPS Group Figure 2 - Labour Market,Western Australia -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% RetailTurnoverGrowth(p.a.) Western Australia Australia Source: ABS 8501.0, RPS Group 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% HomeLoanRates(p.a.) Standard Variable Three-Year Fixed Source: RBA, RPS Group Figure 3 - RetailTurnover Figure 5 - Mortgage Rates,Australia -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Food Household Goods Department Stores Other Retailing Take Away/ Restaurants RetailTurnoverGrowth(p.a.) Previous 12 Months Ten-Year Average Source: ABS 8501.0, RPS Group 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 CashRate(%) 31-Jan-17 17-Mar-17 Source: ASX, RPS Group Figure 6 - Cash Rate Expectations,Australia Figure 4 - RetailTurnover,Western Australia Western Australian Economy
  • 3. 3RPS Group | Chart Pack | May 2017 Figure 7 - Merchandise Exports,Western Australia $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 Price($USpertonne/barrel) MerhcandiseExportsTrend($millions/month) Merchandise Exports Iron Ore Price Petroleum Price 62% FE spot (CFR Tianjin port) Source: ABS 5368.0, IndexMundi, RPS Group Crude Oil (Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate and the Dubai Fateh) 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% WagePriceGrowth(p.a.) Western Australia Australia Source: ABS 6345.0, RPS Group Figure 8 - Wage Price Index 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% ConsumerPriceIndexGrowth(p.a.) Perth Australia Source: ABS 6401.0, RPS Group $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 Non-ResidentialBuildingWork($million/quarter) Work Done Building Approvals Source: ABS 8752.0, ABS 8731.0, RPS Group Figure 9 - Consumer Price Index Figure 11 - Non-Residential Construction,WA -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Food Housing Education Accommodation & Travel Transport Health Household Equipment & Services Utilities Inflation (p.a.) Ten-year average (p.a.) Previous 12 Months Source: ABS 6401.0, RPS Group $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000 Commercial Industrial Education Aged Care Health Entertainment & Recreation Short Stay Accommodation Value of Work ($ millions) Previous 12 Months Five-Year Average Source: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group Figure 12 - Non-Residential Construction,WA Figure 10 - Inflation,Western Australia Western Australian Economy
  • 4. 4RPS Group | Chart Pack | May 2017 Figure 13 - Engineering Work,Western Australia $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 EngineeringWork($m/quarter,price-adjusted) Seasonally Adjusted Trend Source: ABS 8762.0, RPS Group $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 PrivateCapitalExpenditure($millionsp.a.) Mining Manufacturing Other Industries Source: ABS 5625.0, RPS Group Figure 14 - Private Capital Expenditure,WA $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 ExplorationExpenditure($millions/quarter) Mining Petroleum Source: ABS 8412.0, RPS Group Figure 15 - Exploration Expenditure,Western -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% ChangeinExpenditure(p.a.) State Final Demand Private Investment Private Consumption Public Expenditure Source: ABS 5206.0, RPS Group Figure 16 - Economic Growth,Western Australia Western Australian Economy
  • 5. 5RPS Group | Chart Pack | May 2017 Figure 17 & 18 - Owner Occupier Housing Finance,Western Australia 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Owner-OccupierLoanCommitments(monthly) Established Dwellings New Dwellings Source: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Owner-OccupierLoanCommitments(monthly) Upgraders First Home Buyers Source: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 HomeLoanCommitments($millions/month) Investors Upgraders First Home Buyers Source: ABS 5609.0, RPS Group Figure 19 - Housing FinanceValue,Western Australia 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 FirstHomeOwnerGrantApplications(monthly) Established Homes New Dwellings Source: Treasury (WA), RPS Group Figure 20 - First Home Buyers,Western Australia Residential Property | WA 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 ResidentialConstruction(dwellingsp.a.) Houses Commenced Dwellings Commenced Houses Completed Dwellings Completed Source: ABS 8752.0, ABS 8731.0, RPS Group Figure 21 - Residential Construction,Western Australia 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 BuildingApprovals(dwellings/month) Houses Other Dwellings Source: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group Figure 22 - Building Approvals,Western Australia
  • 6. 6RPS Group | Chart Pack | May 2017 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 ResidentialPropertyListings(quarterly) Source: REIWA, RPS Group Figure 23 - Property Listings, Metropolitan Perth 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 ResidentialVacantLandListings(monthly) Source: REIWA, RPS Group Figure 24 - Land Listings, Metropolitan Perth Residential Property | Perth Figure 25 - Property Sales, Metropolitan Perth 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Mulit-UnitDwellingSales(weekly) HouseSales(weekly) Houses Sold Houses Trend Units Trend Units Sold Source: REIWA, RPS Group 0 50 100 150 200 250 DeveloperLotSalesIndex(weekly) Sales Trend Rolling Average Source: UDIA Land Snapshot, RPS Group Figure 26 - Developer Land Sales, Greater Perth 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 BuildingApprovals(dwellings/month) Houses Other Dwellings Source: ABS 8731.0, RPS Group Figure 27 - Building Approvals, Greater Perth 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 NumberofLots(annualised) Applications Lodged Conditional Approvals Final Approvals Source: WAPC, RPS Group Figure 28 - Residential Subdivisions, Greater Perth