This document analyzes the effects of Malaysia's 2016-2018 electoral boundary redelineation. It finds that the redelineation impacted parliamentary and state seats in Kedah, Perak, Kelantan, and Johor. While the changes may give BN an advantage in some areas, multicorner fights involving PAS could benefit PH more. The unpredictable political climate means the final outcome is difficult to predict. Redelineation alone likely has minimal impact, and the election result will depend on voter preferences revealed on polling day.

1. REDRAWING MALAYSIA’S FUTURE:
THE EFFECTS OF NEW
ELECTORAL BOUNDARIES
Danesh Prakash Chacko
(Tindak Malaysia Network Services PLT)

2. BASICS OF MALAYSIAN ELECTORAL
SYSTEM
• Parliamentary style government
• First Past the Post (FPTP) /Plurality
• How to form a government?

3. FUNDAMENTALS OF REDELINEATION
• Redelineation
• Gerrymandering
• Malapportionment
Gerry goes absolute
meandering at the polling
district (DM) level

4. ANALYSING 2016 - 18 REDELINEATION
Source : Penang Institute, SPR Malaysia

5. IMPACT OF REDELINEATION
• May not be a scary as people would like to think
• BN may get upper hand in parliamentary seat count in Peninsular
Malaysia
• Sabah could determine whether BN obtains a 2/3 majority or the
creation of PH government
• Multicorner fights have more impact than redelineation
• Let’s examine Kedah, Perak, Kelantan and Johor
• Disclaimer: Politics is fluid and is difficult to predict

6. IMPACT ON KEDAH
• At Parliamentary level
• Redelineation impacted 4 out of 15 parliamentary seat
• 3 of the affected seats are held by PH and Mahfuz Omar
• In the event of a 3 corner fight, BN may increase parliamentary hold from 10 to
12
• Alor Setar is classic example of packing of opposition voters (as per Syor 2).
This is done at the expense of neighbouring Kuala Kedah (PKR seat)

7. IMPACT ON KEDAH
• At DUN Level
• Though outright majority of Kedahan DUN seats are Malay majority, there may be
racialization of 9 affected DUN seat in favour to Malay voters.
• Only two DUN seats witnessed a rise of non Malay voters
INCREASE OF MALAY VOTERS (%) NUMBER OF DUN SEATS
< 1 % 2
1 – 2 % 2
2 – 5 % 4
> 5 % 1

8. IMPACT ON KEDAH
• At DUN Level
• If 75% of Kedahan voters turn up to vote, where
• 45 – 55 % of Malay voters voted for BN, 15 -25 % voted for PH and 25 – 35 %
voted for PAS
• 15 – 25 % of Non Malay voters voted for BN, 65 – 80 % voted for PH and 5%
voted for PAS
• Redelineation makes no impact in improving chances of BN or PH in winning
new DUN seats.
• PAS may be at the losing end irrespective of redelineation. 3 corner fight has
bigger impact than redelineation

9. IMPACT ON PERAK
• At Parliamentary level
• Redelineation impacted nearly 1/3 of Parliamentary seats of Perak
• 7 seats affected held by PH and 2 seats affected are held by BN
• Significant racial reengineering occurred in Lumut
• Most of affected DAP seats experience an increase of Chinese voters while
PAS and PKR seats witness an increase of Malay voters
• In key certain seats, significant presence of Indian and Orang Asli (2 seats)
voters will make them kingmakers in GE14

10. IMPACT ON PERAK
Lumut will
fall to BN if
Syor 2 is
passed
Perak Syor 2
Parliamentary
Map
No redelineation
but does a 3
corner fight favour
to BN?
No redelineation
but does multi
corner fight favour
to BN?
Bukit Gantang
could fall to
BN

11. IMPACT ON PERAK
• At DUN Level
• 30 out of 59 Perak’s seats will experience boundary changes. 16 of them
belongs to PH
• Significant Racial reengineering of certain state seats such as Changkat Jering
(Amanah) and Tebing Tinggi (DAP).
• Malay voters packed more in BN seats, Chinese voters packed more in PH
seats and Indian voters marginally packed for BN areas

12. IMPACT OF PERAK
• At DUN Level
• Currently BN holds 31 DUN seats, razor thin control of the state government
• Redelineation has minimal impact as it may allow BN to win 2 - 3 more DUN
seats
• Pakatan may win additional one seat through redelineation
• 3 corner fight has more impact on GE14 outcome with PAS being at the losing
end

13. IMPACT ON KELANTAN
• At Parliamentary Level
• One of the few states that had swapping of DUN seats among Parliamentary
Seats. Rectified gerrymandering?
Syor 2Current
Rantau
Panjang
Pasir
Mas

14. IMPACT ON KELANTAN
• At DUN Level
• While PAS may hold huge majority at the DUN level, 3 corner fight may put to an
end to their 28 year rule
• IDE Selangor concluded only 15 DUN seats are safe for PAS
• With or without redelineation, PAS may lose either way.
• Out of the 14 strongest PAS seats, 7 were affected by redelineation

15. IMPACT ON KELANTAN
Example 1
Pasir Pekan is Kelantan MB’s seat.
Redelineation will remove 22% of his support
base away
More pro BN voters move in
Example 2
Panchor is Kelantan Deputy MB’s seat
Absorbed one pro BN (76%) district

16. IMPACT ON JOHOR
• At Parliamentary Level
• 11 out 25 seats are affected by redelineation
• Johor is unique that most affected seats by redelineation are held by BN (8
seats)
• Outright gerrymandering of Pagoh has been totally reversed
• Despite the redelineation, Pakatan presence in Johor (particularly in Johor
Bahru) may grow in the event of 3 corner fight

17. IMPACT ON JOHOR
• At DUN level
• 34 out of 56 state seats affected by redelineation
• 22 of them are held by BN
• Malay voters packed in PAS seats
• Chinese voters only packed in very strong DAP seats
• Significant racial reengineering in Pekan Nanas
• Presents a unique situation there is no consistent pattern to racialization for
overall party advantages

18. IMPACT ON JOHOR
• At DUN level
• Redelineation makes no or minimal impact on improving PH and BN chances
• 3 corner fight could lay the ground for Pakatan takeover of Johor
• PAS would be at the losing end
• In short, Johor is a tough election ground for BN and PH

19. WHERE TO NEXT
• While historical redelineation exercises favoured BN, current outcome is not certain
• Global revelations of 1MDB, Mahathir effect, Felda scandal and presence of Warisan have
contributed to the unpredictable nature of politics in Malaysia.
• Elections is a number game. Final electoral boundaries is unknown
• Sabah, PAS, Indian Voter preferences and Orang Asli presence can sway things in favour to
BN or PH
• Final outcome is on Polling Day

20. REFERENCES
• Penang Institute
• SPR Malaysia (Redelineation Reports & Pelan Warta)
• Q2 2017 Electoral Roll
• IDE Selangor (for Kelantan Impact)
• Merdeka Centre
• Wikipedia
* Following sources are quoted for research work and used as a reference only