QuickGains - Post 8000 boom or Doom - September 2005
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This document discusses trends in the Indian stock market and provides examples from other markets to support its analysis. It contains the following key points: 1) The Indian stock market is poised for significant future growth as India's economy shifts towards services, just as the US and Japanese economies did in previous decades. 2) Examples from the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nikkei stock indices show that stock markets can experience rapid multi-year growth periods of 10 times or more gains, followed by consolidation periods. 3) Based on these historical precedents, the document predicts the Indian stock market (Sensex) could reach 25,000 by 2030 with 10% annual growth or 77,000 by 2030 with
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QuickGains - Post 8000 boom or Doom - September 2005
- 1. QuickGaîns Technical View on Indian Stock Markets by N.S. Fidai/Nooresh Merani Post 8000, Boom or Doom???
- 2. QuickGaîns History Repeats Itself! What we Learn from History is “That we do not LEARN from History” "I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero, 1893
- 3. QuickGaîns Primary Trends cannot be Manipulated. INDIA Story Services & Global Economy Crude Oil & Inflation
- 4. QuickGaîns INDIA Story India in 2000s is what USA was in 1960s & Japan in 1980s Labour – till yesteryears was INDIA’s weakness, will be the driving force in the future.
- 5. QuickGaîns Services to buffer Global Economies There is a relentless shift in global GDP from Mfg. to Services. 57% in 1990 to 64% in 2000. Sub-Saharan Africa crossed 53% in 2000. Since, Services are not material intensive It is buffering the effect of skyrocketing material prices.
- 6. QuickGaîns Crude Oil & Inflation Y-o-Y inflation rates have halved - 6.5% to 3.08%. While oil prices have increased from $45 to $70. Competition & Innovation putting downward pressure on prices. Increasing productivity & outsourcing are enabling growth without inflation. Price of PCs have crashed from 1lac to 10k while quality has risen tenfold!!!
- 7. QuickGaîns Averages Discount Everything Market reflects all available information. Prices represent sum total of all hopes, fears and expectations of all participants. The unexpected will occur, but usually will affect the short-term trend. The primary trend will remain unaffected.
- 8. QuickGaîns 13 year ITCH!!!!! SENSEX Levels from April1979 – 122.85 to April1992 – 4546.58 Net Gain of 4423.73 an astounding 36 times growth in just 13 years!!!!!
- 9. QuickGaîns 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 5000 10000 SENSEX april 1979 april 1992 R R T 122.85 4546.58 M 36 times in just 13 years!!!! V V T BSE Sensex 30 Co (7,818.90, 8,521.75, 7,818.90, 8,222.59, +417.160)
- 10. QuickGaîns 13 year ITCH - 2 SENSEX Levels from April1992 – 4546.58 to April 2005 – 6649.42 Consolidation Phase with just 2102.84 being added, a miniscule growth of 46.25% in 13 long years !!!!!
- 11. QuickGaîns 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 SENSEX april 1992 april 2005 R R 4546.58 6649.42 M 46.25% in 13 long years X X X BSE Sensex 30 Co (7,818.90, 8,521.75, 7,818.90, 8,222.59, +417.160)
- 12. QuickGaîns 13 year ITCH – 3 ??? SENSEX Levels from April 2005 – 6649.42 to April 2018 –10k / 20k / 40k… Guess??? SENSEX has just given a breakout from long term sideways consolidation pattern of 13 years in the month of June 2005. By closing at 7193.85.
- 13. QuickGaîns 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 k i i i i 10% p.a compounded for next 13 years we should see SENSEX at 25k If INDIA grows @ 20% p.a compounded for next 13 years we should see SENSEX at 77k i k k i BSE Sensex 30 Co (7,818.90, 8,521.75, 7,818.90, 8,222.59, +417.160)
- 14. QuickGaîns Global Precedents to Justify our View Dow Jones - USA
- 15. QuickGaîns 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 500 1000 1500 40.56 1001 34 years Dow Jones sept 1932 R march 1966 R 25 times VM DOW JONES (10,273.59, 10,754.60, 10,142.24, 10,422.05, +147.080)
- 16. QuickGaîns 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 DOW JONES March 1966 March 1983 R R 1001 1158 17 years M 15% X DOW JONES (10,273.59, 10,754.60, 10,142.24, 10,422.05, +147.080)
- 17. QuickGaîns 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 5000 10000 15000DOW JONES march 1983 dec 1999 R R 1158 11658 M 10 times in 16 years flat !!! k V V k DOW JONES (10,273.59, 10,754.60, 10,142.24, 10,422.05, +147.080)
- 18. QuickGaîns 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 10 00 0 20 00 0 30 00 0 40 00 0 50 00 0 60 00 0 70 00 0 k i i i i 10% p.a compounded for next 13 years w e should see SENSEX at 25k If INDIA grows @ 20% p.a compounded for next 13 years w e should see SENSEX at 77k i k k i BSE Sense x 3 0 Co (7 ,8 18 .9 0, 8 ,5 21 .7 5, 7 ,8 18 .9 0, 8 ,222 .5 9, +41 7.16 0) 19 40 19 50 19 60 19 70 19 80 19 90 20 00 50 00 10 00 0 15 00 0DOW JONES march 1983 dec 1999 R R 1158 11658 M 10 times in 16 years flat !!! k V V k DOW JONES (1 0,27 3.59 , 10 ,7 54 .6 0, 1 0,14 2.24, 10 ,4 22.05 , +147 .0 80 ) Familiar????? Above is Dow Jones and below is SENSEX
- 19. QuickGaîns Global Precedents to Justify our View Nikkei - Japan
- 20. QuickGaîns A M J J A S O N D 1985 A M J J A S O N D 1986 A M J J A S O N D 1987 A M J J A S O N D 1988 A M J J A S O N D 1989 A M J J A S O N D 1990 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000 17000 18000 19000 20000 21000 22000 23000 24000 25000 26000 27000 28000 29000 30000 31000 32000 33000 34000 35000 36000 37000 38000 39000 40000 NIKKEI - JAPAN jun 1984 nov 1989 R R 9913 38957 M 3.9 times in 5 years !!!! T T NIKKEI (12,501.43, 13,235.42, 12,498.40, 13,159.36, +745.761)
- 21. QuickGaîns 80:20 Ratio and Technical Analysis Losers outweigh Winners Timing is Crucial Be with Winners, Be with QuickGains!