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Public Service Enterprise Group

   Strategic Presentation to the
   Financial Community

   October 8, 2004
   Short Hills, NJ
Agenda
•   PSEG Strategic Overview   Jim Ferland
•   PSE&G                     Ralph Izzo
•   PSEG Power                Frank Cassidy
     – PSEG Nuclear           Chris Bakken
     – PSEG Fossil            Mike Thomson
     – PSEG ER&T              Steve Teitelman
Break
•   PSEG Energy Holdings      Bob Dougherty
•   PSEG Financial Review     Tom O’Flynn
•   Summary                   Jim Ferland
•   Final Q&A                 All



                                                2
Forward-Looking Statement
Readers are cautioned that statements contained in this presentation about our and our
subsidiaries’ future performance, including future revenues, earnings, strategies, prospects and all
other statements that are not purely historical, are forward-looking statements for purposes of the
safe harbor provisions under The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although we
believe that our expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, we can give no assurance
they will be achieved. The results or events predicted in these statements may differ materially
from actual results or events. For further information, please refer to our Annual Report on Form
10-K and subsequent reports on Form 10-Q and Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission.
Go to http://media.corporate-ir.net/media files/nys/peg/reports/peg_10kp84.pdf for a full text
of our Forward-Looking Statement. These documents address in further detail our business,
industry issues and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those
indicated in this presentation. In addition, any forward-looking statements included herein
represent our estimates only as of today and should not be relied upon as representing our
estimates as of any subsequent date. While we may elect to update forward-looking statements
from time to time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimates change,
unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws.




                                                                                                       3
PSEG 2004 Guidance
                                                                    Earnings $750M - $800M*
                                                                    EPS      $3.15 – $3.35*
                                                                    ROE       13% - 14%
                                                                    Assets   $28B




                                            Regional
      Traditional T&D
                                                                  Domestic/Int’l    Leveraged
                                         Wholesale Energy
                                                                    Energy           Leases

 Earnings     $340M - $360M           Earnings    $300M - $350M    Earnings    $130M - $150M

* Includes the parent impact of $(40)M - $(45)M


                                                                                                4
Developments in 2004
• Significant fuel price increases
   – Natural Gas (Henry Hub)                 + 39%
   – Oil (#6 Resid)                          + 30%
   – Coal (NJ)                               + 48%

• Higher electric energy prices
   – PJM (PS Zone)                           + 24%

• Key competitive pressures
   – Lower BGS and long-term contract margins
   – Flat ER&T profits as opposed to continued growth

• Higher nuclear and fossil replacement power
  and operating costs


                                                        5
Higher Energy Prices
                           PJM Western Hub
                     Round-The-Clock Forward Prices
        $60



        $50



        $40
$/MWh




        $30                                                  BGS Auction 3
                                             BGS Auction 2

        $20
                           BGS Auction 1

        $10

              2000      2001          2002           2003          2004
               0




               1




               2




               3




               4
               0




               1




               2




               3
             00




             01




             02




             03




             04
              0




              1




              2




              3




              4
            -0




            -0




            -0




            -0




            -0
            -0




            -0




            -0




            -0
           l-0




           l-0




           l-0




           l-0




           l-0
          n-




          n-




          n-




          n-




          n-
         pr




         pr




         pr




         pr




         pr
         ct




         ct




         ct




         ct
        Ju




        Ju




        Ju




        Ju




        Ju
        Ja




        Ja




        Ja




        Ja




        Ja
        O




        O




        O




        O
        A




        A




        A




        A




        A
                                                                             6
BGS and Long-term Contracts

                                                            PSEG Power Term Contracts
                         100
                                                                           Generation output not under contract
                         90
 % of Power Generation




                               2003 BGS (10 Month)


                         80
                         70
                                                              Other term energy contracts
                         60
                                                       2004 BGS
                         50                            (12 Month)

                         40                                     2004 BGS (36 Month)
                         30
                                                     2003 BGS (34 Month)
                         20
                         10
                                                            United Illuminating
                                                     2004           2005          2006      2007         2008




                                                                                                                  7
Key Competitive Pressure: BGS Auction Results

                            20,000
                                                            NJ BGS Auction Structure
   Total NJ BGS Load (MW)




                            16,000

                                                                       1 Year
                                                         10                              2005 FP Auction Load
                            12,000                                       50
                                                        months                           (projected)
                                                                      Tranches
                                                           104
                                            1 Year                                       3 Years
                                                        Tranches
                             8,000                                                                                2007 FP Auction Load
                                           170                                       51 Tranches                  (projected)
                                        Tranches
                                                                 34 months
                             4,000
                                                                                                       2006 FP Auction Load
                                                                 51 Tranches                           (projected)

                                     2002            2003          2004          2005          2006        2007          2008


Price (PSE&G)                               $51.12    $53.86       $55.60       $54.73     $55.15
Margin to Forwards                              $8          $5         $3         ~$0         ~$0
                                            $3.2M       $2M         $1.2M         ~$0         ~$0
Margin per Tranche*



* Annualized margin to forward curve on date of BGS auction


                                                                                                                                         8
Key Competitive Pressure: ER&T Results



           $300                                                       $240M -
                                                                       $260M
           $250                                                                  $170M -
                                                                                  $190M
           $200
Millions




           $150
           $100
            $50
             $0
                97



                       98



                              99



                                     00



                                            01



                                                   02



                                                          03



                                                                    an



                                                                                  st
                                                                               ca
              19



                     19



                            19



                                   20



                                          20



                                                 20



                                                        20



                                                                  Pl


                                                                            re
                                                                 04


                                                                         Fo
                                                               20


                                                                        04
                                                                      20
                                                                                           9
PSEG 2004 Earnings Drivers


                   ($0.45)
 $3.60 - $3.80

                                                 N/C
                                    $0.08                 ($0.08)      $3.15 - $3.35

                 - Competitive
                   Pressures      + Weather               - Interest
                    - BGS         + Improved
                      Margin
                                    economy
                    - Trading
                 - Nuclear &
                   Fossil O&M
                   / Operations
                 + Other O&M
                 + NDT

  2004 Plan         Power          PSE&G        Energy     Parent      2004 Estimate
                                               Holdings




                                                                                       10
PSEG 2005 Guidance


                                     ($0.06)
                     $0.17                             ($0.01)        ($0.07)
                                                                                    $3.15 - $3.35
 $3.15 - $3.35


                 + Improved       - Transmission    - Minor Items   - Impact of
                   Nuclear &        Rate Case                         convertible
                   Fossil                                             securities
                                  - O&M Increases
                   Operations
                 + Modest
                   Improvements
                   on Contract
                   Renewals
                 - NDT
                 - O&M

 2004 Estimate      Power            PSE&G             Energy          Other        2005 Estimate
                                                      Holdings




                                                                                                    11
PSEG Business Drivers
Issue               View                                   Effect

Fuel Prices         High and volatile prices will          ST: Increases costs to serve full-
                    moderate, but remain above                  requirements contracts
                    historic levels                        LT: Improves earnings of nuclear fleet
Capacity Prices /   Low prices for next two to three       ST: Reduced profitability
Recovery            years, recovering as supply /          LT: Benefits all units, especially load-
Mechanisms          demand come into balance                   following and peaking units
Energy Prices       Higher prices near term, slow          ST: Contract position dampens near-
                    downward drift as fuel costs               term benefit
                    moderate                               LT: Better pricing as contracts renew
Nuclear / Fossil    Plans in place to improve overall      ST: Higher O&M costs
Operations          performance                            LT: Greater output; O&M trending lower
Regulatory          Continuance of sound regulatory        ST: Fair resolution of transmission and
Relations           relations at state and federal level       distribution rate cases
                                                           LT: Acceptable rate treatment
International       Moderate growth, improving             ST: Stable, improving earnings
Economies           fundamentals                           LT: Improved value, opportunities for
                                                               asset monetization



                                                                                                      12
Business Strategy
Outlook for Market Fundamentals (Capacity Pricing, Energy Margins)

      Weak / Depressed                                       Improving


   2004          2005             2006          2007          2008          2009


  Reduce Debt to Improve Credit

Improve Nuclear & Fossil Performance and
               Capability

    Improve Profitability as Contracts Renew

                    Continue Modest Rate Base Growth at PSE&G

                Continue to Monetize PSEG Energy Holdings Assets

                                         Apply Improved Cash Flows to Share Buyback,
                                                  Selective Asset Acquisition



                                                                                       13
2005-2009 Earnings Outlook


                                                     4% - 6%


                $3.15 - $3.35



   $3.15 - $3.35




      2004           2005       2006   2007   2008     2009
     Estimate      Estimate




                                                               14
PSE&G Strategic Direction

  Ralph Izzo
  President and COO
PSE&G Overview
• 10th largest electric                                                                                             o.
                                                                                                                ex C                                           .
                                                                                                                                                          ic Co
                                                                                                            Suss                                    Passa
  distribution utility in U.S. –
  2M customers                                                                                                                                                                         n Co.
                                                                                                                                                                                  Berge
                                           N

                                                                                              Co.
                                                                                         n
                                                                                   War re
                                    W                      E
                                                                                                                                         Co.
                                                                                                                                  r is
                                                                                                                             Mo r

•   9th largest gas distribution           S
                                                                                                                                                                         .
                                                                                                                                                                     x Co
                                                                                                                                                                 Esse                    Co.
                                                                                                                                                                                     son

    utility in the U.S. – 1.6M                                                                                                                                                    Hud




    customers
                                                                                                                                                                      .
                                                                                                        .                                                         n Co
                                                                                                 n Co                                                   Unio
                                                                                            terdo
                                                                                        H un
                                                                                                                                                                             STATEN
                                                                                                                                                                             ISLAND




• 2nd largest peak                                                                                                                   Co.
                                                                                                                              t
                                                                                                                         er se
                                                                                                                     So m

  transmission utility in                                                                                                                                    .
                                                                                                                                                        Co
                                                                                                                                                  lesex
                                                                                                                                          M idd


  traditional PJM – 1,411 circuit                                                                                     r Co.
                                                                                                               Mer ce

  miles
                                                                                                                                                                              .
                                                                                                                                                                   Co
                                                                                                                                                              outh
                                                                                                                                                         M onm
                                    KEY:
                                        COMBINED ELECTRIC & GAS TERRITORIES
                                         ELECTRIC TERRITORY
                                         GAS TERRITORY




• 2,600-square-mile service
                                               0                                       10ml
                                                   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9




  territory                                                                                                                                                          .
                                                                                                                                                          n Co
                                                                                                                             Co.                      Ocea
                                                                                                                    ngto n
                                                                                                            Bu r li




          - 6 major cities
                                                                                                   .
                                                                                              en Co
          - 300 communities                                                               Camd
                                                Co.
                                          ester
                                    G louc




                                                                                                                                                                                               16
PSE&G Business Strategy
Provide safe, reliable, low-cost service

Manage the regulatory agenda

Invest in technology to benefit customers and
investors




                                                17
Strategy Focuses on Performance
                           Safe                                               Low Cost
                                                Reliable
                 Top 10% Nationally                                     Top 25% Regionally
                                          Top 25% Regionally
People          •OSHA                                                 •Overtime
                •Lost Time Rate
Safe,                                                                 •Staffing
                •Total Availability
Motivated,
                •MVA Rate
Productive
                                      •   Perception Survey
                                      •   Moment of Truth Survey
Customer                              •   BPU Inquiry Ratio
Care                                  •   Fix It Right
                                      •   First Call Resolution
                                      •   CAIDI
                                      •   SAIFI
                                      •   MAIFI
Operations                            •   Gas Leaks/Mile
Reliable, Low                         •   Leak Response Rate
Cost                                  •   Transmission Availability
                                          Index
                                                                      •Total Capital Expenditures
                                                                      •Return on assets
Financial
                                                                      •Accountability O&M
Fair Return
                                                                      •Non-Traditional Revenue



                                                                                                    18
Measuring Performance Against Strategy
                                                      Reliable
           Safe                                                                                 Low Cost
                                                     Top Quartile
         Top Decile                                                                              Top Quartile
                                                      Regionally
         Nationally                                                                               Regionally

                                    2003 2004                                                                  2003 2004
                                                                                    Overtime
          OSHA Index
People                                                                              Staffing/100k Cust
          OSHA Severity Rate
          Motor Vehicle Accidents
          Total Availability
                                                                       2003 2004
                                            SAIFI
Operations                                  MAIFI
                                            Leak Response Rate
                                            Gas Leaks per Mile            N/A
                                            Trans Avail Index
                                            Perception (ACSI)
Customer                                    DBMOT                         N/A
                                            BPU Inquiry Ratio
                                            # BPU/Exec. Inquiries
                                                                          N/A
                                            Fix It Right
                                                                          TBD
                                            First Contact Resolution                                Gas     Electric
                                            CAIDI                                                2003 2004 2003 2004
                                                         Cap Ex (Total per Deca-therm / Mwh)
Financial                                                O&M (Total per Deca-therm / Mwh)
                                                         Non-Traditional Revenues                        N/A          N/A

                                                                                                          Total Utility
                                                                                                           2003 2004
                                                         Return on Assets


                        Worse than Mean                     Better than Mean                    Top Decile/Quartile
                                                                                                                            19
Measuring Performance – Electric
                                             Electric Delivery Peer Panel Trends
                                                                                               2004 Forecast
                                                                                      2003
                                                       2000      2001          2002
People (Top Decile National Basis)
OSHA Incident Rate
Lost Time Severity Rate
Vehicle Accident Rate
Absenteeism

Operations (Top Quartile Regional Basis)
SAIFI (Excluding Major Storms)
MAIFI (Excluding Major Storms)
Transmission Availability

Customers (Top Quartile Regional Basis)
CAIDI (Excluding Major Storms)

O&M Productivity (Top Quartile Regional Basis)
O&M Expenditures per Customer
O&M Expenditures per MWh Sold

Capital Productivity (Top Quartile Regional Basis)
T&D CapEx per Customer
T&D CapEx per MWh Sold

Total Expenditures (Top Quartile Regional Basis)
T&D Expenditures per Customer
Expenditures per MWh Sold



                       N/A                    Below Mean                Above Mean           Above Strategy

Source: PA Consulting and PSE&G Peer Panel



                                                                                                               20
Measuring Performance - Gas
                                                         Gas Delivery Peer Panel Trends
People (Top Decile National Basis)                                                                           2004 Forecast
                                                                                                   2003
                                                                     2000   2001            2002
OSHA Incident Rate
Vehicle Accident Rate
Absenteeism

Operations (Top Quartile Regional Basis)
CI Breaks Repaired / Mile of CI Main
3rd Party Damages / Miles of Main & Service
Leak Response / Within 1 Hour

Customers (Top Quartile Regional Basis)
Regulatory Complaint Rate

O&M Productivity (Top Quartile Regional Basis)
O&M$/Customer
O&M$/Mile of Mains & Services
O&M$/DKtm
     O&M is sum of FERC gas distribution O&M for operation
    and maintenance of mains & services
Capital Productivity (Top Quartile Regional Basis)
CapEx$/Customer
CapEx$ /Mile of Mains & Services
CapEx$/DThm
    CapEx is sum of direct capital costs for new and
    replacement mains & services
Total Expenditures (Top Quartile Regional Basis)
Total Expenditures per Customer
Total Expenditures per Mile of Mains & Services
Total Expenditures per DKtm


                            N/A                         Below Mean             Above Mean             Above Strategy

Source: PA Consulting and PSE&G Peer Panel



                                                                                                                             21
PSE&G Rates
                                                                                               Electric
Residential Rate ($/kWh)




                           $0.14                                                                                                              Residential Bill
                           $0.12                                                                                                          Annual
                                                                                                                                                           $844
                                                                                                                                          Cost
                           $0.10
                                                                                                                                          Annual           6,960
                           $0.08                                                                                                          Usage            kWh
                           $0.06                                                                                                          $/kWh ’90-
                                                                                                                                                          0.75%
                                                                                                                                          ’99
                           $0.04
                                                                                                                                          $/kWh ’99-
                           $0.02                                                                                                                          -1.75%
                                                                                                                                          ’03
                           $0.00
                                     1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

                                                                              $1.20
                                                                                                                       Gas
                                                 Residential Rate ($/therm)




                                                                              $1.00
                            Residential Bill

                  Annual
                                                                              $0.80
                                        $1,401
                  Cost

                                                                              $0.60
                  Annual                1,252
                  Usage                therms

                                                                              $0.40
                  $/therm
                                        1.8%
                  ’90–’99
                                                                              $0.20
                  $/therm
                                        9.7%
                  ’99-’03
                                                                              $0.00
                                                                                      1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
                                                                                                                                                                   22
PSE&G Business Strategy
Provide safe, reliable, low-cost service

Manage the regulatory agenda

Invest in technology to benefit customers and
investors




                                                23
NJ Regulatory Structure

  Board of Public Utilities (BPU)                                      Term Expiration
  Jeanne Fox, Board President                                              2008
  Jack Alter                                                               2005
  Fred Butler                                                              2009
  Connie Hughes                                                            2007
  Vacant*

  *Carol Murphy resigned effective 9/2004, remainder of term to be filled with appointee




            NJ BPU is rated “A2” (Average) by
            Regulatory Research Associates


                                                                                           24
New Jersey Regulatory Agenda
• Restructuring, completed in 2003, continues to work
  well

• No commodity risk - - gas and electric

• Upcoming events
   – Legislation on Performance and Quality of Service Standards
   – BGS Auction - - February 2005
   – Elimination of $64 million electric revenue credit




                                                                   25
FERC Electric Transmission Rate Filing
 • FERC order issued in January 2004, with PSE&G filing
   scheduled early 2005

 • New rates expected to be effective in June 2005

 • Formula rates for both existing and new facilities

 • New rates will likely place downward pressure on
   earnings in near term


Socio-political, regulatory, economic and environmental pressures will
be driving increased transmission investment for at least 3 – 5 years


                                                                         26
PSE&G Business Strategy
Provide safe, reliable, low-cost service

Manage the regulatory agenda

Invest in technology to benefit customers and
investors




                                                27
Investing in Electric Transmission
• Replace assets that have increasing maintenance costs
  or are approaching end-of-life cycle

• Replace aging systems with state-of-the-art technology
  to reduce outage duration/occurrences

• Minimize risk and exposure associated with customer
  outages

• $350M investment over next five years




                                                           28
Two-Way Customer Communications
• Pilot program

• Initial scope involves 3,500-
  4,000 residential customers

• Duration: 12-18 months

• Launch date: Q1, 2005

• Market research will help
  determine program’s future



                                  29
Two-Way Customer Communication Benefits

• Customers
   – Elimination of estimated bills
   – Demand control
   – Competitive supply pricing

• Third-Party Suppliers
   – Risk management
   – Flexible pricing

• Utility
   – More efficient outage reporting, restoration and back office
     operations
   – Curtailment of meter tampering
   – Growth of rate base



                                                                    30
PSE&G 2005 Guidance


$340M - $360M
                                                                     Key Assumptions
                                                     $325M - 345M
                                                                     • Normal weather
                                                                     • Sales growth:
                                                                       – 1.5% Electric
                                                                       – 1.4% Gas
                                                                     • Transmission rates
                                                                       effective in June 2005
 2004 Estimate       Sales      Depr.   O&M, Int.,   2005 Estimate
                   Increases,             Misc.
                    Offset by
                 Transmission
                   Rate Case




                                                                                                31
2005-2009 Earnings Outlook and Drivers

                                                                 1% -2%
  $340M - $360M
             $325M - $345M




     2004      2005              2006            2007         2008    2009
    Estimate Estimate


                  + Electric and Gas sales growth
                                              + Rate relief
                  + Infrastructure replacement and technology investments
                  - Transmission rate reset




                                                                             32
Key Takeaways
•   Operational excellence

•   Positive regulatory relationships

•   Technology investment

•   Solid returns and predictable cash flow into the future




                                                              33

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public serviceenterprise group 10/08/04-1-33

  • 1. Public Service Enterprise Group Strategic Presentation to the Financial Community October 8, 2004 Short Hills, NJ
  • 2. Agenda • PSEG Strategic Overview Jim Ferland • PSE&G Ralph Izzo • PSEG Power Frank Cassidy – PSEG Nuclear Chris Bakken – PSEG Fossil Mike Thomson – PSEG ER&T Steve Teitelman Break • PSEG Energy Holdings Bob Dougherty • PSEG Financial Review Tom O’Flynn • Summary Jim Ferland • Final Q&A All 2
  • 3. Forward-Looking Statement Readers are cautioned that statements contained in this presentation about our and our subsidiaries’ future performance, including future revenues, earnings, strategies, prospects and all other statements that are not purely historical, are forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provisions under The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although we believe that our expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, we can give no assurance they will be achieved. The results or events predicted in these statements may differ materially from actual results or events. For further information, please refer to our Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent reports on Form 10-Q and Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Go to http://media.corporate-ir.net/media files/nys/peg/reports/peg_10kp84.pdf for a full text of our Forward-Looking Statement. These documents address in further detail our business, industry issues and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in this presentation. In addition, any forward-looking statements included herein represent our estimates only as of today and should not be relied upon as representing our estimates as of any subsequent date. While we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time to time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimates change, unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws. 3
  • 4. PSEG 2004 Guidance Earnings $750M - $800M* EPS $3.15 – $3.35* ROE 13% - 14% Assets $28B Regional Traditional T&D Domestic/Int’l Leveraged Wholesale Energy Energy Leases Earnings $340M - $360M Earnings $300M - $350M Earnings $130M - $150M * Includes the parent impact of $(40)M - $(45)M 4
  • 5. Developments in 2004 • Significant fuel price increases – Natural Gas (Henry Hub) + 39% – Oil (#6 Resid) + 30% – Coal (NJ) + 48% • Higher electric energy prices – PJM (PS Zone) + 24% • Key competitive pressures – Lower BGS and long-term contract margins – Flat ER&T profits as opposed to continued growth • Higher nuclear and fossil replacement power and operating costs 5
  • 6. Higher Energy Prices PJM Western Hub Round-The-Clock Forward Prices $60 $50 $40 $/MWh $30 BGS Auction 3 BGS Auction 2 $20 BGS Auction 1 $10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 00 01 02 03 04 0 1 2 3 4 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 l-0 l-0 l-0 l-0 l-0 n- n- n- n- n- pr pr pr pr pr ct ct ct ct Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja O O O O A A A A A 6
  • 7. BGS and Long-term Contracts PSEG Power Term Contracts 100 Generation output not under contract 90 % of Power Generation 2003 BGS (10 Month) 80 70 Other term energy contracts 60 2004 BGS 50 (12 Month) 40 2004 BGS (36 Month) 30 2003 BGS (34 Month) 20 10 United Illuminating 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 7
  • 8. Key Competitive Pressure: BGS Auction Results 20,000 NJ BGS Auction Structure Total NJ BGS Load (MW) 16,000 1 Year 10 2005 FP Auction Load 12,000 50 months (projected) Tranches 104 1 Year 3 Years Tranches 8,000 2007 FP Auction Load 170 51 Tranches (projected) Tranches 34 months 4,000 2006 FP Auction Load 51 Tranches (projected) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Price (PSE&G) $51.12 $53.86 $55.60 $54.73 $55.15 Margin to Forwards $8 $5 $3 ~$0 ~$0 $3.2M $2M $1.2M ~$0 ~$0 Margin per Tranche* * Annualized margin to forward curve on date of BGS auction 8
  • 9. Key Competitive Pressure: ER&T Results $300 $240M - $260M $250 $170M - $190M $200 Millions $150 $100 $50 $0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 an st ca 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 Pl re 04 Fo 20 04 20 9
  • 10. PSEG 2004 Earnings Drivers ($0.45) $3.60 - $3.80 N/C $0.08 ($0.08) $3.15 - $3.35 - Competitive Pressures + Weather - Interest - BGS + Improved Margin economy - Trading - Nuclear & Fossil O&M / Operations + Other O&M + NDT 2004 Plan Power PSE&G Energy Parent 2004 Estimate Holdings 10
  • 11. PSEG 2005 Guidance ($0.06) $0.17 ($0.01) ($0.07) $3.15 - $3.35 $3.15 - $3.35 + Improved - Transmission - Minor Items - Impact of Nuclear & Rate Case convertible Fossil securities - O&M Increases Operations + Modest Improvements on Contract Renewals - NDT - O&M 2004 Estimate Power PSE&G Energy Other 2005 Estimate Holdings 11
  • 12. PSEG Business Drivers Issue View Effect Fuel Prices High and volatile prices will ST: Increases costs to serve full- moderate, but remain above requirements contracts historic levels LT: Improves earnings of nuclear fleet Capacity Prices / Low prices for next two to three ST: Reduced profitability Recovery years, recovering as supply / LT: Benefits all units, especially load- Mechanisms demand come into balance following and peaking units Energy Prices Higher prices near term, slow ST: Contract position dampens near- downward drift as fuel costs term benefit moderate LT: Better pricing as contracts renew Nuclear / Fossil Plans in place to improve overall ST: Higher O&M costs Operations performance LT: Greater output; O&M trending lower Regulatory Continuance of sound regulatory ST: Fair resolution of transmission and Relations relations at state and federal level distribution rate cases LT: Acceptable rate treatment International Moderate growth, improving ST: Stable, improving earnings Economies fundamentals LT: Improved value, opportunities for asset monetization 12
  • 13. Business Strategy Outlook for Market Fundamentals (Capacity Pricing, Energy Margins) Weak / Depressed Improving 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Reduce Debt to Improve Credit Improve Nuclear & Fossil Performance and Capability Improve Profitability as Contracts Renew Continue Modest Rate Base Growth at PSE&G Continue to Monetize PSEG Energy Holdings Assets Apply Improved Cash Flows to Share Buyback, Selective Asset Acquisition 13
  • 14. 2005-2009 Earnings Outlook 4% - 6% $3.15 - $3.35 $3.15 - $3.35 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Estimate Estimate 14
  • 15. PSE&G Strategic Direction Ralph Izzo President and COO
  • 16. PSE&G Overview • 10th largest electric o. ex C . ic Co Suss Passa distribution utility in U.S. – 2M customers n Co. Berge N Co. n War re W E Co. r is Mo r • 9th largest gas distribution S . x Co Esse Co. son utility in the U.S. – 1.6M Hud customers . . n Co n Co Unio terdo H un STATEN ISLAND • 2nd largest peak Co. t er se So m transmission utility in . Co lesex M idd traditional PJM – 1,411 circuit r Co. Mer ce miles . Co outh M onm KEY: COMBINED ELECTRIC & GAS TERRITORIES ELECTRIC TERRITORY GAS TERRITORY • 2,600-square-mile service 0 10ml 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 territory . n Co Co. Ocea ngto n Bu r li - 6 major cities . en Co - 300 communities Camd Co. ester G louc 16
  • 17. PSE&G Business Strategy Provide safe, reliable, low-cost service Manage the regulatory agenda Invest in technology to benefit customers and investors 17
  • 18. Strategy Focuses on Performance Safe Low Cost Reliable Top 10% Nationally Top 25% Regionally Top 25% Regionally People •OSHA •Overtime •Lost Time Rate Safe, •Staffing •Total Availability Motivated, •MVA Rate Productive • Perception Survey • Moment of Truth Survey Customer • BPU Inquiry Ratio Care • Fix It Right • First Call Resolution • CAIDI • SAIFI • MAIFI Operations • Gas Leaks/Mile Reliable, Low • Leak Response Rate Cost • Transmission Availability Index •Total Capital Expenditures •Return on assets Financial •Accountability O&M Fair Return •Non-Traditional Revenue 18
  • 19. Measuring Performance Against Strategy Reliable Safe Low Cost Top Quartile Top Decile Top Quartile Regionally Nationally Regionally 2003 2004 2003 2004 Overtime OSHA Index People Staffing/100k Cust OSHA Severity Rate Motor Vehicle Accidents Total Availability 2003 2004 SAIFI Operations MAIFI Leak Response Rate Gas Leaks per Mile N/A Trans Avail Index Perception (ACSI) Customer DBMOT N/A BPU Inquiry Ratio # BPU/Exec. Inquiries N/A Fix It Right TBD First Contact Resolution Gas Electric CAIDI 2003 2004 2003 2004 Cap Ex (Total per Deca-therm / Mwh) Financial O&M (Total per Deca-therm / Mwh) Non-Traditional Revenues N/A N/A Total Utility 2003 2004 Return on Assets Worse than Mean Better than Mean Top Decile/Quartile 19
  • 20. Measuring Performance – Electric Electric Delivery Peer Panel Trends 2004 Forecast 2003 2000 2001 2002 People (Top Decile National Basis) OSHA Incident Rate Lost Time Severity Rate Vehicle Accident Rate Absenteeism Operations (Top Quartile Regional Basis) SAIFI (Excluding Major Storms) MAIFI (Excluding Major Storms) Transmission Availability Customers (Top Quartile Regional Basis) CAIDI (Excluding Major Storms) O&M Productivity (Top Quartile Regional Basis) O&M Expenditures per Customer O&M Expenditures per MWh Sold Capital Productivity (Top Quartile Regional Basis) T&D CapEx per Customer T&D CapEx per MWh Sold Total Expenditures (Top Quartile Regional Basis) T&D Expenditures per Customer Expenditures per MWh Sold N/A Below Mean Above Mean Above Strategy Source: PA Consulting and PSE&G Peer Panel 20
  • 21. Measuring Performance - Gas Gas Delivery Peer Panel Trends People (Top Decile National Basis) 2004 Forecast 2003 2000 2001 2002 OSHA Incident Rate Vehicle Accident Rate Absenteeism Operations (Top Quartile Regional Basis) CI Breaks Repaired / Mile of CI Main 3rd Party Damages / Miles of Main & Service Leak Response / Within 1 Hour Customers (Top Quartile Regional Basis) Regulatory Complaint Rate O&M Productivity (Top Quartile Regional Basis) O&M$/Customer O&M$/Mile of Mains & Services O&M$/DKtm O&M is sum of FERC gas distribution O&M for operation and maintenance of mains & services Capital Productivity (Top Quartile Regional Basis) CapEx$/Customer CapEx$ /Mile of Mains & Services CapEx$/DThm CapEx is sum of direct capital costs for new and replacement mains & services Total Expenditures (Top Quartile Regional Basis) Total Expenditures per Customer Total Expenditures per Mile of Mains & Services Total Expenditures per DKtm N/A Below Mean Above Mean Above Strategy Source: PA Consulting and PSE&G Peer Panel 21
  • 22. PSE&G Rates Electric Residential Rate ($/kWh) $0.14 Residential Bill $0.12 Annual $844 Cost $0.10 Annual 6,960 $0.08 Usage kWh $0.06 $/kWh ’90- 0.75% ’99 $0.04 $/kWh ’99- $0.02 -1.75% ’03 $0.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 $1.20 Gas Residential Rate ($/therm) $1.00 Residential Bill Annual $0.80 $1,401 Cost $0.60 Annual 1,252 Usage therms $0.40 $/therm 1.8% ’90–’99 $0.20 $/therm 9.7% ’99-’03 $0.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 22
  • 23. PSE&G Business Strategy Provide safe, reliable, low-cost service Manage the regulatory agenda Invest in technology to benefit customers and investors 23
  • 24. NJ Regulatory Structure Board of Public Utilities (BPU) Term Expiration Jeanne Fox, Board President 2008 Jack Alter 2005 Fred Butler 2009 Connie Hughes 2007 Vacant* *Carol Murphy resigned effective 9/2004, remainder of term to be filled with appointee NJ BPU is rated “A2” (Average) by Regulatory Research Associates 24
  • 25. New Jersey Regulatory Agenda • Restructuring, completed in 2003, continues to work well • No commodity risk - - gas and electric • Upcoming events – Legislation on Performance and Quality of Service Standards – BGS Auction - - February 2005 – Elimination of $64 million electric revenue credit 25
  • 26. FERC Electric Transmission Rate Filing • FERC order issued in January 2004, with PSE&G filing scheduled early 2005 • New rates expected to be effective in June 2005 • Formula rates for both existing and new facilities • New rates will likely place downward pressure on earnings in near term Socio-political, regulatory, economic and environmental pressures will be driving increased transmission investment for at least 3 – 5 years 26
  • 27. PSE&G Business Strategy Provide safe, reliable, low-cost service Manage the regulatory agenda Invest in technology to benefit customers and investors 27
  • 28. Investing in Electric Transmission • Replace assets that have increasing maintenance costs or are approaching end-of-life cycle • Replace aging systems with state-of-the-art technology to reduce outage duration/occurrences • Minimize risk and exposure associated with customer outages • $350M investment over next five years 28
  • 29. Two-Way Customer Communications • Pilot program • Initial scope involves 3,500- 4,000 residential customers • Duration: 12-18 months • Launch date: Q1, 2005 • Market research will help determine program’s future 29
  • 30. Two-Way Customer Communication Benefits • Customers – Elimination of estimated bills – Demand control – Competitive supply pricing • Third-Party Suppliers – Risk management – Flexible pricing • Utility – More efficient outage reporting, restoration and back office operations – Curtailment of meter tampering – Growth of rate base 30
  • 31. PSE&G 2005 Guidance $340M - $360M Key Assumptions $325M - 345M • Normal weather • Sales growth: – 1.5% Electric – 1.4% Gas • Transmission rates effective in June 2005 2004 Estimate Sales Depr. O&M, Int., 2005 Estimate Increases, Misc. Offset by Transmission Rate Case 31
  • 32. 2005-2009 Earnings Outlook and Drivers 1% -2% $340M - $360M $325M - $345M 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Estimate Estimate + Electric and Gas sales growth + Rate relief + Infrastructure replacement and technology investments - Transmission rate reset 32
  • 33. Key Takeaways • Operational excellence • Positive regulatory relationships • Technology investment • Solid returns and predictable cash flow into the future 33