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Data science against
corruption
From Prozorro to
new challenges in
Dozorro
ProZorro – the Golden Triangle of
Partnership
• Civil society
• Business
• Government
PROZORRO
Everyone will see
everything
The problem
Can AI recognize corruption risks as an expert
with 10 years of experience?
YES
at least with 86%
of accuracy
HEY!
Right one seems to
be more risky...
First try - ELO score
• Classic formula 78.2 %
• ELO + qsort + Random noise 98.8 %
Probability based models
• Conditional probability 62 %
• Bayes' theorem 67 %
Light GBM
68 %
Old fashioned Logistic regression
• Based on ELO rating 69 %
• Based on pairs distance 78 %
Our finalists
• Multi-layer perceptron NN 81 %
• XGBoost 86 %
What’s next
• Decrease number of features
• Relevance Vector Machines
• Learning to Rank
Prozorro risk prediction

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Prozorro risk prediction