LCD": low carbon diet

1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND
THE FUTURE OF FOOD
Bogor, 10 Juli 2021
Urgensi Penanganan Perubahan Iklim melalui Pengaturan Pola Makan

2. CLIMATE CHANGE
What?
Why?
When?
Who?
Where?
How?

3. Total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions (gigatonne of CO2- equivalent per year,
GtCO2-eq/yr) from economic sectors in 2010. The
circle shows the shares of direct GHG emissions (in
% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions) from
five economic sectors in 2010. The pull-out shows
how shares of indirect CO2 emissions (in % of total
anthropogenic GHG emissions) from electricity
and heat production are attributed to sectors of
final energy use. ‘Other energy’ refers to all GHG
emission sources in the energy sector as defined
in WGIII Annex II, other than electricity and heat
production {WGIII Annex II.9.1}. The emission
data on agriculture, forestry and other land use
(AFOLU) includes land-based CO2 emissions from
forest fires, peat fires and peat decay that
approximate to net CO2 flux from the sub-sectors
of forestry and other land use (FOLU) as described
in Chapter 11 of the WGIII report. Emissions are
converted into CO2-equivalents based on 100-year
Global Warming Potential (GWP100), taken from
the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR). Sector
definitions are provided in WGIII Annex II.9.
{WGIII Figure SPM.2}
(IPCC, 2013)

4. AFOLU emissions for the last four decades.
For the agricultural sub-sectors emissions are
shown for separate categories, based on
FAOSTAT, (2013). Emissions from crop
residues, manure applied to soils, manure
left on pasture, cultivated organic soils, and
synthetic fertilizers are typically aggregated
to the category ‘agricultural soils’ for IPCC
reporting. For the Forestry and Other Land
Use (FOLU) sub-sector data are from the
Houghton bookkeeping model results
(Houghton et al., 2012). Emissions from
drained peat and peat fires are, for the 1970s
and the 1980s, from JRC/PBL (2013), derived
from Hooijer et al. (2010) and van der Werf
et al. (2006) and for the 1990s and the 2000s,
from FAOSTAT, 2013.

5. Red meat (beef, pork, and lamb) and dairy
production together account for nearly half of
the greenhouse gas emissions associated with
the US food supply chain.
(Weber and Matthews, 2008; Engelhaupt, 2008)
Image credit: Brent Kim, Johns Hopkins Center for a Livable Future

6. Source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission
from livestock production.
The single largest share of livestock-
related GHG emission (39%) is from
enteric fermentation, a digestive process
unique to ruminant animals (e.g., cattle
and goats) that release methane as a
byproduct. Most of the methane is
released throught burping (“eructation”),
not farting. Other major source include
manure (26%), wich emits methane and
nitrous oxide; producing feed for the
animals (24%), and clearing forests for
feed crops and pasture (9%).
(Gerber et al. 2013)

7. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by stage of
supply chain.
GHG emissions associated with US food supply
chains are predominantly from food production
(83%), with much smaller contributions from
transporting food and food ingredients (11%)
and food retail (5%). Transporting food from
store to homes, home refrigration, cooking, and
emissions from wasted food were not included
in these estimate but are also significant
contributors of emissions.
(Weber and Matthews, 2008; Garnett, 2008)

8. Global Systems Vulnerable to Climate
• Disruptions May Lead to Political or Societal Instability
Global Health
Food Supply Water

9. Global Systems Vulnerable to Climate
• Disruptions May Lead to Political or Societal Instability
Global Health
Food Supply Water
Food Supply

10. Food Surpluses and Deficits
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Net
Trade,
Millions
of
Tonnes
• 1965 – 2019
Surplus
Deficit
North
America
South
America
Australia
E. Europe /
Fmr. USSR
Central
America Western
Europe
Asia
N. Africa
& the Middle
East
Sub-
Saharan
Africa

11. Loss of income from the COVID-19-driven
recession will push millions of people into
food insecurity. The pandemic has already
affected the labor supply and export
markets for some food crops and
commodities.

12. “There may be a threshold
of global warming
beyond which
current agricultural practices
can no longer support
large human civilizations.”
• IPCC 5th Assessment Report 2014

13. How Does Climate Change Affect Food Supply?
Floods
Drought
Disease
Heat
Pests
Fires
Nutrition Toxins
Water
Availability
Food

14. How Does Climate Change Affect Food Supply?
Floods
Drought
Disease
Heat
Pests
Fires
Nutrition Toxins
Water
Availability
Food
Drought

15. Dry Riverbed, Putaendo, Chile
• September 23, 2019
Photo © 2019 AP Photo/Esteban Felix
2019 was one of Chile’s driest
years in at least six decades.
An agricultural emergency was
declared in 100 regions.

16. Buhera, Zimbabwe
• January 28, 2020
Photo © 2020 Jekesai Njikizana/AFP via Getty Images
More than half of
Zimbabwe’s people are
suffering from a shortage
of food, due primarily to
drought.

17. “I had 400 acres of wheat,
and now it’s all desert.”
• Ahmed Abdullah, Syrian farmer
October 2010

18. How Does Climate Change Affect Food Supply?
Floods
Drought
Disease
Heat
Pests
Fires
Nutrition Toxins
Water
Availability
Food
Heat

19. Warmer temperatures are
already reducing yields of
maize, wheat, and barley in
low-latitude regions.

20. Projected Yield Declines For Each 1° C of Warming
These four crops make up two thirds of human caloric intake.
Corn
-7.4%
Wheat
-6%
Rice
-3.2%
Soy
-3.1%

21. How Does Climate Change Affect Food Supply?
Floods
Drought
Disease
Heat
Pests
Fires
Nutrition Toxins
Water
Availability
Food
Pests

22. Rajasthan, India
• June 6, 2020
Photo © 2020 Himanshu Sharma/Abaca/Sipa via AP Images
Changes in plant growth caused
by higher CO2 levels, as well as
heat waves and tropical cyclones
with intense rains, can lead to
larger locust swarms.

23. “There is a link between climate change and the
unprecedented locust crisis plaguing Ethiopia
and East Africa. Warmer seas mean more
cyclones generating the perfect breeding
ground for locusts. This is getting worse by the
day.”
• António Guterres, UN Secretary General
March 2020

24. Samburu County, Kenya
• May 21, 2020
Photo © 2020 Fredrik Lerneryd/Getty Images
Parts of Africa, India and the
Middle East are experiencing
the worst locust swarms in
decades.

25. Aphids and Japanese beetles (Popillia japonica) were
drawn more to plants raised in elevated CO2 conditions
In a real-world study of CO2 and soybeans
1
Beetles that fed on the high CO2 leaves
lived longer and laid more eggs
2
3
Source: Union of Concerned Scientists; University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.
Photo: © 2012 AP Photo/The Daily News, Don Bryan
The high CO2 levels also lowered the plants’ natural defenses,
making them virtually helpless against plant-eating pests

26. How Does Climate Change Affect Food Supply?
Floods
Drought
Disease
Heat
Pests
Fires
Nutrition Toxins
Water
Availability
Food
Disease

27. Wheat leaf rust, which
thrives in higher
temperatures and
humidity, can lead to
crop losses of 20% – 30%
or more.

28. Soybean Sudden Death Syndrome
Photo © Crop Protection Network
Soybean sudden death syndrome, which thrives in overly wet conditions, has
become the #1 soybean fungal disease in the U.S.

29. Southern corn rust has
been moving
northward as
temperatures rise. It is
now found in Iowa and
Nebraska in the
summer.

30. Rice Fields, Tanjungsari, Indonesia
Photo © 2020 Algi Febri Sugita/Sipa via AP Images
High CO2 levels have been
shown to increase disease
severity in rice and wheat.

31. How Does Climate Change Affect Food Supply?
Floods
Drought
Disease
Heat
Pests
Fires
Nutrition Toxins
Water
Availability
Food
Nutrition

32. Source: Bloom, et al., “Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition,” Nature, April 2014
Photo: © 2007 iStockphoto/Anzelm
Rising concentrations of CO2 are
threatening global nutrition by
reducing levels of nutrients
(including zinc, iron, copper, magnesium and calcium)
in food crops like rice, wheat and soybeans.

33. The nutritional quality of ocean
fish decreases when water
temperatures go up.

34. How Does Climate Change Affect Food Supply?
Floods
Drought
Disease
Heat
Pests
Fires
Nutrition Toxins
Water
Availability
Food Toxins

35. Higher temperatures and droughts can cause
toxin accumulation in plants and livestock, threatening the
health of humans and animals.
© xpixel/Shutterstock

36. Data: UNEP via Scientific American
Photo © Jasper Suijten via Shutterstock
During drought, nitrates accumulate in crops such as
wheat, corn, barley, soy, millet and sorghum.
Too much nitrate in our diet interferes with
blood’s ability to carry oxygen.

37. Green Governance
Green
Transportation
Green
Industry
Green
Finance
Green
Farm
Green
Energy
Green
Infrastructure

38. Diet and your
carbon footprint

40. What you eat?
How much ends up in the garbage?
How much processing is required?
How—and how far—your food travels?

41. 5
Reduce your intake of meat and
dairy
Purchase only what you’ll eat
Choose foods that are minimally
processed
Eat locally produced foods
Shop for the season you're in