My poster at the 2010 International System Dynamics Conference, Seoul.

1. Rats, Black Swans, and Personal Careers
an Investigation of “Go with the flow” and
“Deviate from common behaviour” Strategies
AndreasAndreas
80 % 20 %
Probability matching;
success rate: 68 %
A “didactic” system dynamics model
Rats left Rats right
Probability food
Food left Food right
Total food
taken rightincrease
food right
Total food
taken left increase food left
PolicyGoingLeft
A “didactic” system dynamics model
Rats
going left going right
new rats
Individual rationality does not
100
75
50
units
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Individual rationality does not
lead to high overall performance
50
25
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Hour)
units
Total foot taken : RationalChoice100Rats 1 1 1 1 1
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Being different can beTotal foot taken : RationalChoice100Rats 1 1 1 1 1
Total foot taken : ProbabilityMatching100Rats 2 2 2 2
Total foot taken : HalfHalf100Rats 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total foot taken : Extraordinary100Rats 4 4 4 4 4
Total foot taken : Adapting100Rats 5 5 5 5 5 5
0.02
-0.135
5 5 5
4
4
4
3 3 3
2
2 21 1 1 1
rats
Being different can be
quite successful (but is risky)
-0.29
-0.445
-0.6
0 10 20 30
units/rats
* Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands, a.groessler@fm.ru.nl
The trouble with
the rat race is that
even if you win,
you‘re still a rat
DifferenceAverages : RationalChoice100Rats
DifferenceAverages : ProbabilityMatching100Rats
DifferenceAverages : HalfHalf100Rats
DifferenceAverages : Extraordinary100Rats
DifferenceAverages : Adapting100Rats
* Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands, a.groessler@fm.ru.nlyou‘re still a rat
-- Lily Tomlin
Rats, Black Swans, and Personal Careers –
an Investigation of “Go with the flow” and
“Deviate from common behaviour” Strategies
Andreas Größler*Andreas Größler*
Inspiration:
Gigerenzer, 2007Gigerenzer, 2007
Brunswick, 1939
80 % 20 %80 % 20 %
Success rate:
still 68 % per rat
But: food is divided by
number of rats.still 68 % per rat number of rats.
If one rat goes to the right,
chances are low, but if food
is there, rat has it on its own.
Policies tested:
• Rational choice• Rational choice
• Probability matching
• Half-Half
• Extraordinary• Extraordinary
• Adaptation
Being different can be
Analogy to
• General strategy
• Investment policy
• Personal career
5 5 5 5 5
4
4 4
4 4
3 3 3 3 32 2 2 2 2 21 1 1 1 1 1
Being different can be
quite successful (but is risky)
• Personal career
planning
• Focused factory vs.
“world class
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Hour)
“world class
manufacturing”
University Nijmegen, The Netherlands, a.groessler@fm.ru.nl
Time (Hour)
1 1 1 1
: ProbabilityMatching100Rats 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5 5 5
University Nijmegen, The Netherlands, a.groessler@fm.ru.nl