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Dachshunds and data: Developing a tool to help dog breeders predict genetic risks.

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Developing a tool to help dog breeders predict genetic risks. Presentation in the Third Sector Stream at the OR Society's 2014 Conference OR56. Presented by Ian Seath & Sophie Carr.

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Dachshunds and data: Developing a tool to help dog breeders predict genetic risks.

  1. 1. Dachshunds and Data Developing a tool to help dog breeders predict genetic risks OR56: Sept. 2014
  2. 2. Presented by Ian Seath & Sophie Carr Lafora disease and DNA testing. Developing a tool Overview Learning and next steps Happy dogs and owners
  3. 3. Lafora disease and DNA testing DNA tests Miniature Wirehaired Dachshunds Known to suffer from epilepsy (Lafora disease) Need to identify breeding pairs which may produce Identifies if the dog carries the recessive gene Tested ”Not affected” (clear or carrier) Tested and non-symptomatic (carrier) 4 populations 2 tests available Not consistently used Tested and no recessive gene (clear) affected puppies Tested and symptomatic (affected)
  4. 4. Developing a tool Data Lots of unknowns and estimated values. Requirement Simple, robust model which provides indicative results. Solution Probability trees. 1 2 3
  5. 5. Simple probability tree Clear Carrier Affected 0.45 Clear Carrier 0.45 Affected Clear 0.75 Carrier 0.25 Affected 0 When a carrier and clear dog breed, the resulting puppies can be clear or carriers – there are not two recessive genes present to allow for an affected puppy
  6. 6. The tool THEORETICAL PROBABILITY OF PUPPIES WHICH ARE CLEAR CARRIER AFFECTED CLEAR TO CLEAR 1.000 0.000 0.000 CLEAR TO AFFECTED 0.000 1.000 0.000 CLEAR TO CARRIER 0.750 0.250 0.000 CLEAR TO NOT AFFECTED 0.863 0.138 0.000 CLEAR TO NOT TESTED 0.788 0.213 0.000 CARRIER TO NOT AFFECTED 0.475 0.388 0.138 NOT AFFECTED TO NOT AFFECTED 0.649 0.275 0.076 CARRIER TO NOT TESTED 0.450 0.388 0.163 NOT AFFECTED TO NOT TESTED 0.602 0.309 0.089 NOT TESTED TO NOT TESTED 0.557 0.338 0.106 AFFECTED TO NOT TESTED 0.000 0.675 0.325
  7. 7. The benefits Increasing awareness Informed decisions • Probability of breeding affected puppies Simple methodology • Robust, simple to use model Predictive analysis • Investigate different breeding strategies
  8. 8. Increased volume and accuracy of data Enhance model methodology Review model assumptions Investigate impact of new breeding strategies Future improvements
  9. 9. Thank you • Ian Seath ian.seath@improvement-skills.co.uk • Sophie Carr sophie@baysconsulting.co.uk

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