Showing differences in EV of starting stack sizes

1. Poker Session PA #2
PA Leak Busting

2. PA Leak Busting
 Fundamental Principles of Poker Revisited
 Problem Descriptions and Potential Leaks
 Table Changing
 Short Stack vs. Normal & Deep Stack
 Targeting Aggro and Thinking Players

3. Fundamental Principles of Poker
Revisited
 +EV play
◦ Plays that yield the greatest value long term
 Reciprocity*-- We win every time we:
◦ Make a +EV play our opponents will not / cannot make
◦ Make a correct fold our opponents will not / cannot make
 Exploiting our skill edge
◦ The greater the delta in skill between ourselves and
our opponents the greater our win rate

4. Potential Leaks: Wins vs Losses
 Your winning sessions just aren’t big enough to
offset your losing sessions
◦ You average < 1 Buy-in on winning sessions
◦ You average > 1 Buy-in on your losing sessions
 You should be averaging +1.5 Buy-ins for your
winning sessions
◦ Winning 3, 4, even 5 Buy-ins per session should be
common and occurring on a weekly basis.

5. Potential Leaks: Exclusively Focusing
on Passive Players
 The only way to extract money from passive players
is to hit our hand
 60% of the time, we are NOT going to hit our hand
◦ When we do, we aren’t going to be as strong as we’d like
 Inflating the pot is difficult vs. passive players
 Their passive play inadvertently minimizes their
mistakes
 Targeting bad passive players is profitable, but
it will not be enough to give us a +1.5 BI winrate

6. Potential Leaks: Table Changing
 Table Changing too quickly
◦ Time spent at a table is an investment
◦ We learn table and villain tendencies
◦ We have an advantage vs all players new to the table
◦ We can optimal adjust and exploit the table for max results
 Valid reasons for table changing
◦ There is no money on the table
◦ There is no easy mark on the table
◦ Skill level is too high thus table is unprofitable for you
◦ You spot a more profitable table
◦ Beware the “grass looks greener” lure
 All tables go through “cycles”.
◦ Players will leave, new fish will arrive, just give it time

7. Potential Leaks: Table Changing
 Doubling Up and Table Changing
◦ Leaving a profitable table is a serious leak
◦ Maximizes our time at unprofitable tables while Minimizing
our time at profitable tables
TWO SCENARIOS
 Table A) We double up within 45 minutes
 Table B) We lose one buy-in within 90 minutes
 If we have to play six hours, which table should we play at?
Ironically, players have no qualms grinding 6 hours at the same table to get unstuck 2
buy-ins but want to leave after winning a big pot and doubling up. This tendency
maximizes our time at unprofitable tables while minimizing our time at profitable tables

8. Potential Leaks: Short Stack vs
Normal and Deep Stack Play
 Short Stack play limits our ability to win
◦ Limits the amount of money we can win
◦ Limits the amount of +EV plays in our arsenal
◦ 100% links our play to hand strength
◦ We are dealt a very limited # of strong hands
◦ We become slaves to the cards and variance
◦ Limits Frequency of hands we can see
◦ Limits opportunities to engage with -EV players 
◦ Thus, limits the amount of money we win

9. Short Stack vs. Normal / Deep Stack
Short Stack Normal Stack Deep Stack
ACTION
(40bb) (100bb) (250bb)
Raising top 10 hands Yes Yes Yes
3 betting top 10 hands No Yes Yes
3 betting top 5 hands Yes Yes Yes
Limping SCs and SGs EP No Yes Yes
Limping SCs and SGs MP No Yes Yes
Limping SCs & SGs LP Yes Yes Yes
Playing SCs and SGs EP vs 4bb Open No No Yes
Playing SCs and SGs MP vs 4bb Open No Yes Yes
Playing SCs and SGs LP vs 4bb Open No Yes Yes
Set mining (limping) Yes Yes Yes
Set mining (4bb open) No Yes Yes
Set mining (8bb open) No No Yes
Floating w intent to steal No Yes Yes
Double Barreling No Yes Yes
Triple Barreling No No Yes
Denying odds w turn shove in multi-way No Yes Yes
Pot committed in Multi-way pot on turn Yes No No
Raising LP w 5% range plus flop cbet Yes Yes Yes
Raising LP w 10% range plus flop cbet Yes Yes Yes
Raising LP w 15% range plus flop cbet No Yes Yes
Raising LP w 20% range plus flop cbet No No Yes

10. Targeting Aggro & Thinking Players
 Players involved in more pots
◦ More opportunity for profit
 Fold Equity comes into play
◦ Gives us another tool in the toolkit to use to win
 Employ Advanced Poker Principles
All lesser players are fish!!!

11. Short Stack Normal Stack Deep Stack
ACTION
(40bb) (100bb) (250bb)
Raising top 10 hands Yes Yes Yes
3 betting top 10 hands No Yes Yes
Conceptualization
3 betting top 5 hands Yes Yes Yes
Limping SCs and SGs EP No Yes Yes
Limping SCs and SGs MP No Yes Yes
Limping SCs & SGs LP Yes Yes Yes
Playing SCs and SGs EP vs 4bb Open No No Yes
Playing SCs and SGs MP vs 4bb Open No Yes Yes
Playing SCs and SGs LP vs 4bb Open No Yes Yes
Set mining (limping) Yes Yes Yes
 What does the Math Say? Set mining (4bb open)
Set mining (8bb open)
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Floating w intent to steal No Yes Yes
 Integrating all aspects of poker into
Double Barreling
Triple Barreling
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Denying odds w turn shove in multi-way No Yes Yes
a math model is too complicated Pot committed in Multi-way pot on turn
Raising LP w 5% range plus flop cbet
Raising LP w 10% range plus flop cbet
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
◦ We can look at each line separately
Raising LP w 15% range plus flop cbet No Yes Yes
Raising LP w 20% range plus flop cbet No No Yes
◦ Set mining, Drawing, Floating, C-betting + Multi-
Barreling
 We can then compare Short Stack vs Normal &
Deep Stack theoretical
◦ Winrates will be normalized meaning all things being
equal

12. Set Mining
 Scenario
◦ Villain raises “X” amount preflop, Hero calls
◦ Hero will only continue with hand if flops a set
◦ Villain has an 3% chance of flopping a set
◦ If Hero flops set as well, Hero will lose to set over set
◦ When Hero flops a set, Hero will stack villain 50% of the
time

13. Set Mining: Demo
 Not profitable to set mine
under 50bb
 100bb should be considered
“threshold” for profitability
$10 Raise Preflop, 50% V stack off
Hero Chip Stack

14. Set Mining: Demo
 Not profitable to set mine
under 50bb
 100bb should be considered
“threshold” for profitability
$21 Raise Preflop, 50% V stack off
Hero Chip Stack

15. Drawing
 Scenario
◦ Villain raises “X” preflop, 1 caller, Hero calls
◦ Hero flops a “generic” draw (merge flush/straight draws)
◦ Hero’s draw will have 20% chance of hitting
◦ Villain will fire 2/3 pot bets on each street
◦ Caller folds on flop
◦ If Hero hits draw on turn or river hero shoves
◦ Villain will call Hero shove 50% of the time
◦ 5% of the time, each villain will have a better hand (i.e.
overflush)

16. Drawing
Open Ended
Straight Draw
 $15 preflop raise, $15 dead money
 Villain bets 65% of pot on each street
 Hero folds to river bet if misses
 Hero shoves river if hits draw
 Villain stacks off 50% of the time
Hero Stack Size

17. Drawing
Open Ended
Straight Draw
 $26 preflop raise, $26 of dead money
 Villain bets 65% of pot on each street
 Hero folds to river bet if misses
 Hero shoves river if hits draw
 Villain stacks off 50% of the time
Hero Stack Size

18. Drawing
Straight Draw
+ Flush Draw
 $15 raise pre, $15 of dead money
 Villain bets 65% of pot on each street
 Hero folds to river bet if misses
 Hero shoves river if hits draw
 Villain stacks off 50% of the time
Hero Stack Size

19. Drawing
Straight Draw
+ Flush Draw
 $26 raise pre, $26 of dead money
 Villain bets 65% of pot on each street
 Hero folds to river bet if misses
 Hero shoves river if hits draw
 Villain stacks off 50% of the time
Hero Stack Size

20. Floating: Targeting Thinking and
Aggro Players
 Hero is in position vs thinking/aggro player (V)
◦ V raises with a top 20% range
◦ Hero will call/float with a top 10% range (excluding hands Hero would 3-bet
like AQ+, JJ+)
 Villain raises X preflop, two callers, Hero calls
 Villain c-bets, other players folds, Hero calls
 Villain Turn Action dependant on Hero SPR
◦ If Hero SPR > 1 & V hits, V will bet strong (2/3 pot)
◦ Hero will only call with TPGK or better
◦ If Hero SPR > 1 & V misses, V will bet weak (1/3 pot)
◦ Hero can then raise or bet and V will fold
◦ If Hero SPR < 1 & V misses, Villain will put Hero all-in
◦ Hero will only call with TPGK or better

21. Summary Part I
 Differences in Short Stack vs Normal / Deep Stack
can result in a FACTOR OF TEN difference in EV