Operational Decision Elaboration Method as a Foresight Method: a Corporate Approach
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The corporate intelligence field does not have the same characteristics, or the same stakes, than the political or the military intelligence one. But rightly, its characteristics allow to us tactical analysis to forecast what would happen. Competitors, companies, have known technologies, capacities, finances, resources and pre-defined markets. In these conditions, they have a limited number of “options”. “Operational decision elaboration method” uses tactical intelligence to determine what an “adversary” is able to do when confronted to another “party”: what are its equipments, troops, intentions, organizational and operational behaviors. Thus, a military strategist has constraints, imperatives, objectives, limited means and variables that will create an uncertainty for the fulfillment of the mission. This is where intelligence plays a role. The article would stress how this method allow to forecast companies decisions, as their variables and options are less diversified than in the military field. This method would not allow to forecast precisely every decision but limit the number of factors to monitor: the consequence is a better ability to orientate corporate intelligence means, themselves more limited than in the military field. In this case, analysis takes an even more important place.
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Operational Decision Elaboration Method as a Foresight Method: a Corporate Approach
- 1. Operational Decision Elaboration Method as a Foresight Method: a Corporate Approach Pierre Memheld Senior Advisor Inside.Co, France Connect via LinkedIn Scientific Track Operational Decision Elaboration Method as a Foresight Method: a Corporate Approach Abstract The corporate intelligence field does not have the same characteristics, or the same stakes, than the political or the military intelligence one. But rightly, its characteristics allow to us tactical analysis to forecast what would happen. Competitors, companies, have known technologies, capacities, finances, resources and pre-defined markets. In these conditions, they have a limited number of “options”. “Operational decision elaboration method” uses tactical intelligence to determine what an “adversary” is able to do when confronted to another “party”: what are its equipments, troops, intentions, organizational and operational behaviors. Thus, a military strategist has constraints, imperatives, objectives, limited means and variables that will create an uncertainty for the fulfillment of the mission. This is where intelligence plays a role. The article would stress how this method allow to forecast companies decisions, as their variables and options are less diversified than in the military field. This method would not allow to forecast precisely every decision but limit the number of factors to monitor: the consequence is a better ability to orientate corporate intelligence means, themselves more limited than in the military field. In this case, analysis takes an even more important place. Key topics
- 2. competitive intelligence methods origin, use, and limits in a specific industrial sector operational decision elaboration method and planning process to anticipate evolutions complex competitive intelligence analysis and constraints to use the method/process Speaker profile Pierre Memheld: Compliance & Due Diligence Advisor at InsideCo, speaker at the International Relations School - University of Strasbourg (Institut de Traducteurs, d'Interprètes et de Relations Internationales), MBA from ESSEC. Pierre has more than 15 years of experience in market & competitive intelligence in utility, energy, transport or aerospace industries in Europe, India and Middle East.
- 5. Confrontation of means and patterns “Predicition is very difficult, especially about h f ”the future” Niels Bohr I. ODEM Presentation II. Competitive IntelligenceII. Competitive Intelligence III. Corporate Doctrines IV. Early Warning V AssessmentsV. Assessments 25th March 2015 Copyright: Pierre Memheld 3
- 7. I. ODEM Presentation • The Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield Enemy Forces: Size, Activity, Location, Unit, Timeline, Equipment, Intention Terrain: Obstacles, Avenue of Approach, Key points, Observations, Cover, pp , y p , , Weather: Temperatures, Humidity, Wind, Precipiation, Sunrise, Sunset, Moon Friendy Forces: Size, Activity, Location, Unit, Timeline, Equipment Non Enemy Forces: Population, NGO, Hospital, Administration, Key Leaders 25th March 2015 Copyright: Pierre Memheld 5 Mission: Who, What, When, Where, With Who, Why, Later
- 10. I. ODEM Presentation DE QUOI S’AGIT‐ QUOI? La lettre de la mission. Quels effets dois‐je Orientation initiale ANALYSE SYNTHESE PHASE 1 DEVELOPPEMENT PHASE 2 PHASE PREALABLE Mise en ambiance COMMENT? DéveloppementDE QUOI S AGIT IL? Contexte général Quel est le style général de mon action ? Les facteurs Conclusions partielles → Impératifs → Reformulation mission → Effet majeur 1° POURQUOI? L’esprit de la mission. Quels effets dois je réaliser? Quelles sont les composantes de la mission (≅ tâches)? Quelles sont les contraintes? Développement modes d’action amis Analyse fonctionnelle des MA COMPARAISON DES MA (critères) → avantages & é d déLes facteurs essentiels immédiatement perceptibles (mission, contraintes, terrain, délais, RAPFOR)? approche POURQUOI? L esprit de la mission. Quelle place prend ma mission dans la manœuvre du chef? Quel est l’effet majeur du chef MODE D’ACTION RETENU inconvénients Réunion de décision délais, RAPFOR)? En quoi cela sort‐il évidemment de la norme? EFFET MAJEUR INTENTION Effet majeur & idée d Conclusions partielles terrain/délais : rythme & tempo, élongations, front/profondeur, etc. Terrain clé OÙ? Analyse du terrain physique et humain QUAND? Analyse des délais Réunion de synthèse Orientation initiale? RETENU Conception ou ordre de manœuvre Conditions d’exécution QUAND? Analyse des délais d’exécution de la mission Conclusions partielles RAPFOR quantitatifs AVEC QUOI ? Forces amies Adaptation de mes unités aux conditions de la mission? Quelles ité t é t ll CONFRONTATION DES MA & ME → Ebauche l d ordre d’opération et qualitatifs Centres de gravité ami & ennemi Capacités, besoins & vulnérabilités critiques CONTRE QUOI ? Forces adverses Quel est mon ennemi? Quel sont sa unités peuvent exécuter quelles tâches? COMMENT? Développement modes d’action ennemis Face à mon action, dans le but de risques & opportunités 25th March 2015 Copyright: Pierre Memheld 8 plan de manœuvre critiques mission, son objectif immédiat et ultérieur? Quel devrait être son dispositif de départ? Face à mon action, dans le but de remplir sa mission, l’eni pourrait soit…, soit…
- 12. II. Competitive Intelligence • Intelligence Cycle CustomerProduction A tA l AssessmentAnalyze PlanExploit 25th March 2015 Copyright: Pierre Memheld 10 Collect
- 16. II. Competitive Intelligence • Value Chain Analysis 25th March 2015 Copyright: Pierre Memheld 14
- 27. IV. Early Warning • Hypothesis to Indicators l f f di consumer surveys t t k ti General Info Req --- > Specific Reqs --- > Indicators Key Question product creation test marketing prod. line changes t t y Q market research product design promotion new contracts new promotional offersnew products l h advertising product promotion Incr’d plant capacity Equipment buys Specific equipment 2 Specific equipment 1 launch New hires Skill set 1 Skill set 2 Production Tech 25th March 2015 Copyright: Pierre Memheld 25 Financing
- 28. IV. Early Warning • Intelligence to Plan Explore Develop Strategy Test Plans Implement & EvaluateStrategy & Evaluate Key Force Analysis Scenario Development Influence Planning Early Warning & Indicator Test Plans & Assumptions War Game or Competitive Align for Rapid Execution Monitor Indicators &Development Environment & Key Leader & Indicator Trees Competitor & Technical Competitive Role Play Tactical & Event Intelligence Probability/Impact Analysis Indicators & Adjust Plans Intelligence intelligence g Action/Contingency Planning 25th March 2015 Copyright: Pierre Memheld 26 Define Elements Build the Plan Test the Plan Implement the Plan With the authorization of the Bennion Group
- 29. IV. Early Warning • The Over‐all Process Phrase key business issues as questions Create supporting questions for each key issue Decompose to “observables” (on/off; thresholds) Build an indicator tree Plan intelligence collection – ID observables’sources, and channels to tap each source 25th March 2015 Copyright: Pierre Memheld 27 to tap each source With the authorization of the Bennion Group
- 32. V. Assessments Is “surprise” due to an absence of “indicators” or a lack of monitoring/analysis?lack of monitoring/analysis? Decisions Informations 25th March 2015 Copyright: Pierre Memheld 30
- 34. V. Assessments • Intelligence Integration & Sharing 25th March 2015 Copyright: Pierre Memheld 32
- 35. V. Assessments • From intelligence to decision Marke t Environ ment Contrain ts Decision Obj ti C tiObjectiv es Competi tors Analyze Analyze Context Means Plans RETEX Decision Concepts Scenarii Synthesis Execution 25th March 2015 Copyright: Pierre Memheld 33 Decision Concepts Scenarii Synthesis Execution
- 38. Questions & Answers Pierre Memheld – Senior Advisor – pmemheld@insideco.net 25th March 2015 Copyright: Pierre Memheld 36