1. Our key objective is to pick the right stocks at the right time by paying a fair price to
build a balanced portfolio which will enable us to outperform the markets and achieve
superior risk adjusted returns. We aspire to generate wealth by compounding money at a
healthy rate by spotting profit making opportunities in solid companies with strong
management which are available at a good discount to their intrinsic value.
‘s (TMP) – An Innovative Offline PMS
2. From the Desk of Portfolio Manager
Dear Members of The Millionaire Portfolio,
There has been a spate of negative news flow over the past month on both the domestic front and also
the global arena. Indian GDP data was very disappointing and rupee continues to be weak and hit new lows
every day. On the global front, there has been an increasing fear of a disorderly Greek exit which might trigger
a global crisis. All these have taken markets lower and there has been substantial correction in Share prices
especially the Small/ Midcap companies. Does all this mean that you should exit from equity as an asset class?
Sorry, No. On the contrary, Investors should be increasing their allocation to good quality companies.
Stock prices are driven by Sentiments in the short-term, Liquidity in the medium term and Fundamentals
in the long term. Though the magnitudes of these negative events have been bigger than any of the crisis in the
contemporary period, there have been several of them over the past century. The time periods following such
crisis are usually the best time for stock investors where they will be able to multiply their wealth quickly.
Markets and economies are cyclical because of irrational human emotions and will continue to be so. It is
important for an intelligent investor to understand this and be a strong contrarian and take well informed bets.
Investors have been frustrated in the markets for a very long time and this can even continue for the
next few months. But ultimately this phase is eliminating all the weak players in the same system and the
strong ones who are staying on will profit tremendously. U.S Bond Market yields are at 1.87% which is equal to
their stock dividends which clearly shows the kind of pessimism that has been set into the system. You can see
very low interest in the markets by the market participants where volumes has gone down to 5-Yr or 7-Yr lows.
Insiders and Promoters are the biggest buyers in today's market which is a clear sign of the market cheapness.
When you combine this low interest with strong stock picking, it’s easily the best way to succeed in the
markets.
These periods also allows us to pick the right kind of stocks at valuations which are at huge discounts to
their intrinsic values. Investors who are decisive and not clouded by fear and uncertainties will reap rich
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
3. rewards. Markets bottom out much earlier than the real economy and hence we feel that the worst may be
already priced in the market with significant probability for upsides from any small positive trigger. The more
the markets are suppressed with no returns; it is only obvious that the next Bull Run is going to be very
ferocious. Markets are ferocious, like in 1988 to 1992 markets went from 400 to 4000 (10X) in a few years that
led to a P/E as high as 40. From 2003 lows to 2007 markets went from 3500 to around 21000 (6X).
Our portfolio has very little to do with the Global economies and have no real direct business impact on
a Greek exit from Europe. But, if the shares are correcting for reasons not justifiable then it's good that we can
accumulate more of the stocks at lower prices. Though DHFL has corrected sharply from our last addition, our
views have not been changed and we are highly bullish on the prospects of the company and the stock.
Similarly HSIL is also available at good valuations. We have averaged down on both of these stocks and would
advise our clients with surplus cash to park in these counters to generate attractive returns in the next 2 years.
Though one or two quarterly results of a company can be bad, but our portfolio companies have been
solidly researched and there has been proper reasoning for adding those stocks in the portfolio. Eg: In case of
HSIL and DHFL - both are market leaders in their categories and have substantial moats in their business which
is helping them grow rapidly, but still undervalued because of lower investor eyeballs on them. In case of a
sharp meltdown, we still have enough room to average down on our high conviction stocks.
Even good companies go through these technical stock corrections but they bounce back faster and
there is very little risk of these stocks staying undervalued for a long time. Our Portfolio looks good with most
of the stocks in excellent financial shape and it's just a matter of time before they show up in share prices.
Hopefully June month will allow us to deploy our cash in even more attractive opportunities!
Regards,
[ Gokul Raj . P, Portfolio Manager ]
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
4. Portfolio companies of TMP
ONLY FOR EXISTING
MEMBERS OF TMP
TMP Returns = + 39.5 % Vs sensex returns = - 4 %
equity exposure = 80.88% Cash Exposure = 19.12%
You can look into the Outperformance in this Tough Period from comparing this returns with
that on Jan 29, 2012,
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
7. Medium Term - Portfolio Guidance
• Looking into PVR and Persistent Systems :
Our research team has come out with good research reports on PVR Ltd and Persistent Systems and we
are evaluating these suitability of these stocks to our portfolio. We would take a call after a rational risk
check on the portfolio compared to the expected returns.
• Tracking Poly Medicure :
Poly Medicure has a substantial exposure in our Equity portfolio. We are tracking the performance of
the company closely and we would be taking a decision on Holding the stock in the next few quarters. Since,
the information about this company is quite low, we need to wait for the company’s annual report to take a
firm decision on it.
• Increase the stock exposure to Mid-Cap Gems :
We have been holding a decent amount of cash in the portfolio. We are sensing interesting
opportunities and hence would be deploying more cash in the markets in the medium term. We would be
adding stocks, which we will be holding for at least the next 2years thereby giving stability to the portfolio.
We would also like to add certain high dividend yielding stocks in order to create a regular cash flow for
our investors. Balancing will also be done by adding stocks across sectors . Continuing with our bullishness
on select Mid-Cap stocks which can grow sustainably, we will increase allocation to them and thereby
increase the overall Equity Allocation % to over 85% in the next few months.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
8. TMP Connect
[For new members joined TMP]
New Members who has joined during last two months need
to replicate TMP Connect ONLY, Since they are joining in
between hence a replica of actual TMP is created for them.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
9. Your TMP Connect [Only buy these stocks listed below]
Company Name Allocation (as a % of your total planned Allocation % - If your
portfolio size) planned portfolio size is say
10 Lacs, you will be
Cera Sanitary ware 6% allocating Rs50K towards
ONLY FOR EXISTING
Arshiya International at
Arshiya International Ltd 5%
CMP which is 5%
MEMBERS OF TMP
Poly Medicure 6% allocation.
Sanghvi Movers 9% Please follow “TMP
Update” which is released
Karur Vysya Bank 8% once a month for further
buying price range for all
ACGL 7%
stocks in the portfolio.
DHFL 10% Stocks which are not there
HSIL 10% in this list, will slowly be
phased out of the main
Biocon 9% portfolio. Hence, don’t buy
them unless initiated.
Indiabulls Financials 5%
Because of the fall in
KDDL 3% markets, new members
Cash 22% will be able to buy certain
stocks at better prices .
Total 100 %
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
11. Existing TMP (as on June 1, 2012)
ONLY FOR EXISTING
MEMBERS OF TMP
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
12. Transactions in the Portfolio
ONLY FOR EXISTING
MEMBERS OF TMP
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
13. Reshuffled TMP
ONLY FOR EXISTING
MEMBERS OF TMP
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
14. Summary of TMP
• We have increased the stock exposure by more than 4% in this update . Going forward, we would
gradually increase the exposure to much higher levels.
• The total number of stocks is at 11. We intend to run a fairly tight and balanced portfolio. Hence, we
would not like to add new stocks without proper replacement.
• During every significant fall, we shall be deploying cash pretty aggressively in fundamentally good
companies . We have sufficient cash to average down, if required.
• Incase of opportunities where risk-reward is very attractive than any of our existing portfolio stock, we
would take a rational decision to swap the current share with the new stock.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
15. Notes/ Reasoning for Transactions in TMP
Average Down - HSIL:
ONLY FOR EXISTING
MEMBERS OF TMP
• HSIL is a solid business which has tremendous potential for growth. Inline with our guidance for adding
more of the stock in the coming months, we have been able to add HSIL at pretty attractive levels because of
the correction post its Quarterly results. After our Con-Call with the Management, we have a fair bit of an
idea that the company will continue to do well on the topline front while the margins may pose a challenge.
But anyways, HSIL has enough operating leverage to grow its bottom-line significantly in the next two years,
which lead to a higher re-rating enabling us to get Multi-fold returns out of the stock.
Average Down - DHFL:
• DHFL has posted a good set of Quarterly earnings. The PAT has grown over 60% in the last quarter
with improvements in margins and reduction in NPA’s. We expect the company to post EPS of around 40
Rs in FY-13 which leads to a valuation of less than 5X which is very attractive for the quality of its business
operations. We don’t find any significant reason for the decline in the share price and hence believe that, this
is just a blip and investors should be using this correction to accumulate more of the stock. Institutional
investors investing in the stocks at 255 Rs/ Share and Promoters converting their equity at over 300 Rs/
Share gives us tremendous confidence about the future of the company. This bullishness is reflected in the
Share being the No:1 pick in our portfolio.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
16. Quarterly Results Update
Company Name Result analysis for the quarter : Q4 FY-12
Dewan Housing • Dewan Housing Finance Corporation (DHFL) has reported 59.86% surge in net profit at Rs
93.76 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2012. The company had a net profit of Rs
ONLY FOR EXISTING
Finance Ltd
58.65 crore in the same period in the previous fiscal.
MEMBERS OF TMP
• The company's total income rose to Rs 721.11 crore during the quarter as against Rs 434.63
crore in the corresponding quarter last year, up by 65.91%.
• For the year ended March, 2012, the company's net profit grew by 15.57% to Rs 306.41
crore, against Rs 265.13 crore in the previous fiscal. At the same time, total income of the
housing finance firm increased to Rs 2,469.68 crore in 2011-12, compared to Rs 1,451.24
crore a year ago.
• During 2011-12, home loan sanctions increased to Rs 12845.30 crore as against Rs 8,949.48
crore in the previous fiscal, an increase of 43.5%. Disbursements rose to Rs 9,065.24 crore in
compared to Rs 6,505.57 crore in 2010-11.
Analysis :-
Dewan Housing Finance has strongly corrected in the past month. Looking into the results and other
fundamental news flow, we feel the correction is not warranted and this discount on the stock will not
sustain for long. This seems to be technical correction which can happen because of the large Foreign
Institutional presence in the stock. But this more of an Opportunity to accumulate the stock.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
17. Quarterly Results Update
Company Name Result analysis for the quarter : Q4 FY-12
HSIL • The revenue zoomed 17.98% to Rs. 3912.60 millions for the quarter ended March 2012 as
compared to Rs. 3316.40 millions during the corresponding quarter last year.
ONLY FOR EXISTING
MEMBERS OF TMP
• Profit after tax improved marginally to Rs. 329.30 millions for the quarter ended March
2012 from Rs. 325.00 millions of corresponding previous quarter.
• OP of the company witnessed a marginal growth to 745.80 millions from 682.00 millions
in the same quarter last year.
Analysis :-
HSIL has performed well on a sequential basis because of the volume growth in its Building products division
and price increase in its Container Glass business. There has been severe pressure on its margins because of
the steep increase in Fuel & Power costs. This along with the depreciating Rupee was the reason for the
compression in Margins.
But, we must remember that – Our Investment call on HSIL is because of the pricing power it commands
which will help it to pass on the extra costs. This continues to be true and in fact, tough situations like the
present helps us strengthen our conviction on this stock. Company takes a small lag in the Container glass
division while immediately passes on the costs in Building Products division. This can be seen from the Price
increase in the last 6 months on both businesses without affecting volume growth.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
18. Quarterly Results Update
Company Name Result analysis for the quarter : Q4 FY-12
KDDL • The revenue for the March 2012 quarter is pegged at Rs. 261.30 millions, about 13.17% up
against Rs. 230.90 millions recorded during the year-ago period.
ONLY FOR EXISTING
• The Net profit of the company remain more or less same to Rs. 15.10 millions from Rs. 20.40
MEMBERS OF TMP
millions ,decline by -25.98%.
• Operating Profit saw a handsome growth to 52.40 millions from 47.40 millions in the quarter
ended March 2012
Analysis :-
Considering the tough operating conditions for small companies like KDDL, it has performed relatively well
on the topline front. But the major disappointment was on the net profit which shown a substantial decline,
however we continue to look at the financials and AR and would take a rational decision on the small
allocation which we have done to the stock.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
19. Next Update - June 30, 2012
As mentioned in the previous reports, we would be giving regular update reports
at the end of each month. In addition to this, we would be buying/ selling stocks
whenever there is a good opportunity and also keep you updated on the changes.
We would be providing the following in the this Month end report ,
•Quarterly Earnings Update of Portfolio Stocks.
- Special Update on Poly Medicure – Opportunity & Risks.
• News Update on the companies and also price update of stocks.
“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
20. Sit back and Relax while your Money works
Hard for you
A Fund which is backed
by the Best Equity
Research
A Fund which invests in
Strong secular growth
companies which will be
HBJ Capital Ventures LLP
the leaders of the Next
Bull Market ! - Your Partner in Wealth Creation
For additional Details, Call us - +91-9886736791