Deterioration of the global economic outlook GLOBAL GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO MODERATE IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2022 AND TO SLOW IN 2023 TO 2.2% High inflation persists for longer than expected FOR THE MAJOR ECONOMIES, INFLATION IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN 3Q22 AND TO DECLINE FROM 4Q22 ONWARDS, BUT TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CENTRAL BANK TARGETS IN 2023 The US, the first to tighten its monetary policy, will return to the inflation target before the Eurozone or the UK Inflationary pressures extend beyond food and energy Energy crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine DEMAND REDUCTION AND SUPPLY DIVERSIFICATION ARE NEEDED TO AVOID ENERGY SHORTAGES, ESPECIALLY IN EUROPE Gas reserves in Europe, at 90% of their capacity, may not be sufficient to guarantee demand without reduction of consumption and/or diversification of supply sources

1. OECD Economic Outlook
ECONOMY
Deterioration of the global economic outlook
GLOBAL GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO MODERATE IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2022 AND TO SLOW IN 2023 TO 2.2%
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on OECD, 2022.
High inflation persists for longer than expected
Weakening activity, mainly in Europe
FOR THE MAJOR ECONOMIES, INFLATION IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN 3Q22 AND TO DECLINE FROM 4Q22 ONWARDS, BUT TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CENTRAL BANK TARGETS IN 2023
The US, the first to tighten its monetary policy, will return
to the inflation target before the Eurozone or the UK
Inflation forecast %
Growth forecasts for 2023 downgraded across the board
% y-o-y change and pp
Inflationary pressures extend beyond food and energy
% of goods and services in the market basket with annual inflation > 4%
48.2
49.3
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Eurozone US
95.3
96.2
95
96
97
98
99
100
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Eurozone US
Energy crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine
DEMAND REDUCTION AND SUPPLY DIVERSIFICATION ARE NEEDED TO AVOID ENERGY SHORTAGES, ESPECIALLY IN EUROPE
8,48.4
8.1
8.8
5.9
9.1
7.8
6.2
7.5
6.2
5.9 5.8
5.0
4.7
3.4
Germany
Brazil
Eurozone
India
South
Africa
UK
France
Spain
Mexico
Italy
Canada
Australia
Indonesia
Korea
US
Saudi
Arabia
China
Japan
Forecast 2022 Forecast 2023
European core inflation forecast (%)
Composite PMI
Value <50: contraction in business activity
Consumer confidence
Value <100: pessimism about future economic developments
30.1
33.2
18.2
6
Aug-21
UK
US
Eurozone
Japan
80
62.1
60.7
26.2
Aug-22
▲49.4 pp
▲28.9 pp
▲42.5 pp
▲20.2 pp
Gas reserves in Europe, at 90% of their capacity, may not be sufficient to guarantee demand without reduction of
consumption and/or diversification of supply sources
EU + UK gas reserve development scenarios; % reserves
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23
<30%
High risk of
supply
interruption
No change in consumption
compared to average 2017-21
Consumption reduction 10%
compared to average 2017-21
Cold winter
(consumption in máx. 2017-21)
In data
* Forecasts
GLOBAL GDP
2023*
+2.2%
y-o-y
3% in 2022*
5%
SPAIN INFLATION
2023*
2022*: 9.1%
EUROZONE INFLATION
2023*
6.2%
2022*: 8.1%
SPAIN GDP
2023*
+1.5%
y-o-y
2022*: +4.4%
2022 2023
Difference
from Jun.22
Difference
from Jun.22
UK Spain Germany Eurozone France Italy
2022 6.7 3.9 3.4 3.9 3.6 3.0
2023 6.7 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.0