SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report.
The Henry Fund
Henry B. Tippie School of Management
Nihar Patel [nihar-patel@uiowa.edu]
Viacom Inc., Class B (VIAB) November 18, 2016
Consumer Discretionary – Media & Entertainment Stock Rating Buy
Investment Thesis Target Price $49-53
The media and entertainment industry is undergoing a change as more content
moves to online platforms. Viacom operates in two segments Media Networks,
which includes most traditional television, and Filmed Entertainment, which
includes movies. The company recently had a rough CEO change and a few
failed films that has hurt revenues. The company has two share classes, Class
A and Class B. Class A is voting and that is the only difference. 80% of the voting
Class A shares is controlled by one company that is owned by one family. CBS
is also contemplating a merger, and it has the same structure and majority
owner as Viacom.
Investment Positives
 The recent trouble in the company has led to the stock being sold off than
its fundamentals would suggest. Between the messy CEO replacement,
weak performance at the box office, and one family’s control of the
company there have been many headwinds.
 A merger with CBS could produce a leaner company with a larger content
library. That may create the capacity to launch its own online platform,
which is critical if the company intends to stay relevant into the future.
 The company’s strategic plan is to go back to integrating its two lines of
business as it used to do. The goal is to create movies that drive television
views, and use television to bring people to the movies. This could bring
filmed entertainment back to normal, which would be a major boost for
the company’s returns.
 In the DCF model, we have used conservative assumptions as needed, and
there is still plenty of upside in the stock. However, the uncertainty
inherent in the business can change the story very fast.
Investment Negatives
 The Redstone family continues to control the company. The CEO debacle is
not the first controversy that has been caused by the concentration of
voting shares.
 Traditional television is in a decline with the shift to streaming, and this
segment still makes up most of Viacom’s revenue. The company does not
currently have a fast-growing alternative that could replace this revenue
segment.
Henry Fund DCF $52.68
Henry Fund DDM $43.64
Relative PE (EPS17) $51.52
Price Data
Current Price $37.77
52wk Range $30.11-52.95
Consensus 1yr Target $42.59
Key Statistics
Market Cap (B) $15.15
Shares Outstanding (M) 397
Institutional Ownership 90.70%
Three Year Beta (weekly) 1.4000
Dividend Yield 2.1%
Est. 5yr Growth 4.5%
Price/Earnings (TTM) 10.67
Price/Earnings (FY1) 9.9
Price/Book (mrq) 3.5
Profitability
Operating Margin 21.88%
Profit Margin 11.50%
Return on Assets (TTM) 6.42%
Return on Equity (TTM) 36.75%
Earnings Estimates
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
EPS $5.77 $4.83 $3.62 $4.56 $4.74 $4.78
Growth 8.29% -16.36% -24.97% 26.00% 3.86% 0.47%
12 Month Performance Company Description
Viacom Inc. is a media and entertainment
company that operates television channels,
produces content across all kinds of media, and
distributes films. Revenue is generated through
two segments media networks and filmed
entertainment. The company operates numerous
brands and owns many franchises. More than
some of its peers it relies more on marketing and
sees itself as a marketing firm
10.7
6.4
36.7
17.8
10.4
20.3
15.8
6.9
18.618.12
6
20
0
25
50
P/E ROA ROE
VIAB DIS TWX FOXA
Data Source: FactSet
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
N D J F M A M J J A S O
VIAB S&P 500 TR
Data Source: Factset
Page 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Our recommendation on Viacom Inc. is a buy. The
company has faced some recent trials with a few film
productions doing poorly and a messy split with its former
CEO. The distraction for management is done and the
company can focus on creating broad content offerings
that will sustain it into the future. We have taken
conservative assumptions in valuing the company, and still
see significant upside. There is no indication that the
company’s operations are in a sustained downward trend.
The decline in the share price has been an overreaction.
There are lots of unknowns when it comes to media
companies. They make their money through advertising,
affiliates, and customer purchases. All the revenue boils
down to a product that people want to watch. There is no
way to know if a production will be successful, but all the
costs are borne upfront. This makes their results open to
significant volatility. However, media tends to be a bit
more defensive than other industries. People tend to stay
home and consume content when times are hard, because
a movie or TV is cheaper than traveling or other expensive
hobbies.
Traditional television faces significant pressure, but it is
still surviving. The key thing to look for into the future is
Viacom developing a strong strategy to content with the
disruptive effect of the move to streaming. Other than
that, we are not projecting any major changes to the
business.
Competition is fierce, but nothing can be done about that.
Producing better content is the key to success, and the
audiences will judge. Two good movies from two different
companies will both make money. With DVR and on-
demand even television is no longer restricted by time. In
the past ratings meant something, but since people can
record their shows that matters less now.
The case for Viacom being a buy is a simple one. Even with
little expected growth in media networks and a return to
normal in filmed entertainment, the DCF model is showing
a buy. The market may have reacted too negatively to the
company’s recent travails.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Viacom is a global media company that owns and operates
numerous television channels, produces films, and a range
of other content. The two primary segments of the
business are media networks and filmed entertainment.
Under media networks, Viacom owns brands like BET,
MTV, Nickelodeon, Spike, TV Land, and many others.1
Under the filmed entertainment segment brands such as
Paramount and the film version of the network brands.
These are well recognized brands in media. Media
segments is the far larger segment, but probably the one
under the greatest threat. The rise of cord-cutting and
streaming has disrupted the television industry, and the
movie industry is tough to dominate for a variety of
reasons.
Some of Viacom’s Brands:
Source: Viacom Brands
The segments bury a significant truth about Viacom. It is
not a media company that seeks to sell its media products.
78.88%
21.12%
Viacom Revenue Breakdown 2016
Media Networks
Filmed Entertainment
Source: Viacom's 10-k 2016
Page 3
It generates much of its revenue from advertising not from
simply selling its content. While this is always true for most
television content, it is also true for films in Viacom’s case.
Media Networks
Media networks are driven almost entirely by advertising
revenue. This makes the segment very cyclical and
extremely competitive. There is some value to generating
content and selling it via physical media or online, but this
is dwarfed by advertising revenue.
Media networks generate revenue by attracting
advertisers due to the number of people watching their
content. However, the other major part of media network
revenues is affiliate fees.2
These are the cut of cable fees
when people subscribe to the channels, like getting the
Comedy Central or Nickelodeon package.
Predicting the advertising spend cycle is very difficult.
Media exhibit some defensive characteristics due to
people staying at home more. Therefore, it is best to pick
a modest trend and continue this, rather than trying to
guess at when spending will be high and low. However,
when advertising spend decreases due to companies
having cash flow issues such as in 2008 it can lead to
cutbacks. Another aspect of the advertising business is the
product placement that happens in all media. Usually
these spots are used to offset production costs in new
shows, and to bring in revenue with popular shows.
Recently the main issue has been the decline in cable
television. Cable has not disappeared and is still a major
industry, but it is in a secular decline.3
Viacom has yet to
leverage online platforms to their full potential, but it is
not too late for this shift to occur.
Filmed Entertainment
Filmed entertainment is even more volatile. It is cyclical,
but by its very nature it is also more volatile. Films are
deficit financed like television shows, but unlike running a
television channel there are not reruns or one-offs to fill
the schedule. Film are large projects whose production is
financed entirely before the first revenue dollar even
comes in. Then there is the additional expense of
marketing the films.
Filmed entertainment includes distribution and
production with variations within those categories. Many
of the films are co-productions with other studios, or
Paramount is simply the distributor. Upfront, high costs
make this an industry where companies spread as much
risk as possible. In theaters, there is not as much incentive
to compete. Rather having different release schedules or
targeting different types of audiences during the same
day.
The money in movies at Viacom is not as high as some
other names. Disney for example makes a lot of money
from ticket sales, but in the whole year Viacom made less
than a billion dollars. Prior years are not broken down, but
revenue has never been that high considering the number
of movies. This is probably due to its role as distributor and
a co-producer, but it also employs a different strategy.
48.37%
45.83%
5.80%
Media Networks Breakdown 2016
Advertising
Affiliate
Ancillary
Source: Viacom's 10-k 2016
22.73%
29.41%
41.32%
6.54%
Filmed Entertainment Breakdown 2016
Theatrical
Home Entertainment
Television License Fees
Ancillary
Source: Viacom's 10-k 2016
Page 4
Disney currently uses its outside film offerings to drive
people to their movies. While the shows on Netflix and
television provide some revenue, it is the mega-
blockbusters that Marvel churns out that generate money.
Disney’s animated features somewhat support its
television offerings, but Viacom leverages the ecosystem
far more.4
It has consistently made movies that target
children, then release related shows to drive viewership.
The Madagascar series spawned a television show on
Nickelodeon, which later spawned a movie. It is that
targeting that makes Viacom different from other film
companies. It targets a segment to build an ecosystem
broader than just films, rather than aiming for mass appeal
blockbusters. This targeting also gives it a powerful
marketing channel for companies trying to reach their
audience. Product placement helps offset the costs of
production, and can provide some revenue in established
franchises.
Viacom, via subsidiary Paramount, has often treated its
film business as a potential marketing channel. The shifting
of targeted audiences from film to television through
related media is probably the reason that Viacom has
remained healthy despite the decline in network
television, however growth has become more difficult.
Viacom’s Share Structure
Viacom has both A, VIA, and B, VIAB, shares. The sole
difference is that the A shares are voting and the B shares
are not. Therefore, the A shares trade at a premium. 80%
of the voting shares of Viacom are controlled by National
Amusements a company controlled by Sumner Redstone
and eventually his family trust.
Looking at the historical difference between the value of
Class A and B the divergence is large. At one point the
shares were at parity, and during high volume periods
Class B shares have drifted above Class A shares by a few
cents. The most common gap has been around $1.25, but
recently it has moved to around $3. Since one party
controls 80% of voting shares there is not much value to
holding the remaining voting shares. Even in the event of
a merger with CBS the fairness test will be applied, but
minority holders would not be able to vote en masse to
block a deal to get a higher price if a court rules the existing
terms are fair. The valuation and percentages treat A and
B shares the same, but any reasonable adjustment would
still place Viacom heavily in buy territory.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
Viacom has faced some challenges in the last few years
stemming from internal upheaval, and a few missteps in
the filmed entertainment division.
Fiscal Year 2016 Earnings
Viacom just reported their 2016 annual results in
November. The company beat on EPS by $0.04 but missed
on revenue by $70M.5
The miss was due to losses in the
filmed entertainment division. A few projects failed to
deliver large returns, and the company expensed some
items for an upcoming project that was expected to fail.10
Strategic goals going forward include leveraging
technology to improve its advertising. It will also attempt
to take its media network brands international and do
better with appealing to more markets under its existing
brands. Integration between television and film is also
sought, and this should really help bring results back to
growth. However, the model does not project this, so it
would form additional upside.
CBS Bid
Viacom is currently an acquisition/merger target for CBS.
However, this is only in the exploratory phase and nothing
has been detailed yet. CBS is another Redstone family
controlled entity. It has a dual share structure, one voting
and one non-voting, with 80% of the voting shares held by
National Amusements. This is more than coincidence. Ten
years ago, Viacom and CBS split into two entities, both
controlled by National Amusements and Sumner
Redstone. With the difficulties facing traditional television
National Amusements sent a letter advocating a
combination.
If this proposed merger moves into the next stage it will
take quite a bit of time, and likely not yield much of a
premium. Approval will also be slow since the same party
controls both entities. This will trigger what is called the
entire fairness doctrine as described in Golden Cycle, LLC
vs Allen by the Delaware Chancery Court in 1998.6
This doctrine is triggered during a merger or acquisition
when a majority stockholder is on both sides of the
transaction. This rule is designed to prevent minority
shareholder interests. Any deal that will see Viacom and
CBS merge will probably see a lawsuit and a court must
Page 5
determine the fairness of the transaction in addition to all
the other approvals required of takeovers.
CBS is facing similar challenges to Viacom, and it may be
similarly undervalued. This is not a case of one very healthy
company buying a company that has stumbled. For this
merger to really benefit shareholders the new company
would need to be far stronger than the two separate
companies. With Viacom so undervalued it might be worth
it to hold onto any shares gained from the transaction.
There may be synergies to be leveraged from the
combination of content libraries and production facilities.
Replacement of Long-Time CEO
The CEO of Viacom Phillipe Dauman was replaced in
August 20, 2016 after an acrimonious court battle with the
head of the company that controls the voting shares of
Viacom Sumner Redstone. The crux of the issue was that
Dauman believed that Sumner Redstone was no longer
capable of making decisions and his daughter Shari was
controlling him, which his will indicated was what he did
not want. This is just another example of family and
personal disputes spilling into the public sphere due to the
tight control of voting shares by one family. If this situation
with control were ever to change, it would be a major
boost to the company.
Since that family controls 80% of the voting shares the
escapades of the Redstone’s have frequently become an
issue hanging over the head of Viacom. Headlines aside
this has always been the case, but if Viacom’s ownership
structure ever changed it would be a positive. This drama
at the top has created an opportunity in the stock. Dauman
was also one of the highest paid CEOs in America with
about $85M on average between 2011-2015.7
His
replacement will not be paid as much, so there are some
savings to be had there.
INDUSTRY TRENDS
The media industry by its very nature is on the forefront of
technology, culture, and globalization. There are many
sweeping changes facing the industry. Some are recent,
and some have been going on for some time now.
Shift to Streaming
In the last few years streaming has taken off as the primary
way for people to consume their content. This is especially
true for the young, which will define the future for many
more years to come. Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, and
iTunes have changed the field, but those have been picking
away at television’s base for many years. These companies
have also turned to generating their own content,
competing with traditional media more directly.
The television channels have tried to stem this tide.
Companies like Sling TV try to blur the line between
television and Internet streaming by bringing traditional
television streaming through the web. However, the
offerings, features, and cost of these programs leaves
much to be desired. Very little of the shift is driven by cable
versus the Internet, and their strategies seem to be
missing the point. The shift is driven by immediate
consumption without interruption for a reasonable price.
Cable costs too much, and more and more people are
cutting the cord, but that does not mean they are moving
to Sling TV. They are moving to on-demand streaming, not
just streaming.
This trend is the biggest threat the media network
revenues, which is the largest group of revenues. There is
some exposure in the filmed entertainment segment due
to a decrease in licensing fees for television movies, but
this can be made up with licenses with streaming
companies. Media networks on the other hand is driven by
advertising and that is dependent on the number of
people. Licensing fees currently would not offset this
decline. The audience for television is shrinking. Movies
are still big draws and box offices have continued to grow,
but on the small screen everything is moving online.
Global Markets
Movies have become very expensive to produce, though
Viacom does not do many of these. This expense has
Page 6
caused international markets to become very important to
the viability of movies.8
In the past doing well in the US box
office was enough. Now it is not enough. That means that
movies should have broad appeal to many types of
audiences. Some of the recent movies released by
Paramount have struggled. This could be due to their
narrow focus on mostly the domestic market, but it is
competing against major franchises with broad appeal and
an established fan base.
Viacom has not created many franchises other than a few
children’s movies. Its role as a distributor also means it
comes in far later in the production cycle. It also creates
increased competition as there are many global
distributors, and simply focusing on the American market
is not as lucrative as it once was.
MARKETS AND COMPETITION
The media industry is completely fragmented with players
of all sizes and partnerships that form and dissolve on a
regular basis. Two companies working on the same
production may have projects that directly compete later.
There are tiny independent studios, some of which form
for one project, and there are mega studios like Marvel
that produce numerous movies. Early in the cycle of the
Marvel movies Paramount was a distributor, before Disney
took over.
On the film and media production side the industry is full
of players. The television channels do compete in a more
traditional way. Channels compete against one another to
grab the most viewers in the target demographic.
Broadcast television tries to capture the broadest
audience, while network TV can be more specific.
Competition
The competition in this industry across all the segments is
very simple. Attract the most people to your product. This
is done by producing quality material, making it readily
available, and marketing it well. With movies, the goal is to
sell tickets, DVDs, licenses, and merchandise. When done
well a franchise can be created that has numerous media
products and potentially other entertainment products to
perpetuate the concept into the future.
An ideal situation would be obtaining a place in the minds
of the public with a franchise. A recognizable and beloved
idea can always be relied on to generate revenue to the
extent that care is taken. Despite the negative reviews
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles remains a profitable
franchise, eventually more movies well be made. The
upcoming Power Rangers movie is based on a show that is
going on 25 years, and if successful will likely revitalize the
television business.
Television is about attracting viewers to increase revenue
from advertising. Slots are sold to advertisers. Lots of
viewers for a show generates a lot of ad revenue. A show
with very strong demographic numbers can attract
valuable targeted advertising dollars, which are more per
viewer. This is the most well-known form of revenue for
television channels.
The other source is affiliate payments, which are primarily
for network television. When a cable subscriber has a
channel in their plan that channel gets a payment. This
varies based on whether the channel is a common offering,
a premium channel, etc.
All the companies are competing for the interest of the
population. Competition is very high and fierce, but
success depends on quality. A slick marketing campaign
can get viewers onto a new show, but it cannot save a
terrible show.
Source: www.the-numbers.com/market/distributor/paramount-
pictures
Year Movies Market Share Gross
1995 21 9.97% 529,884,404.00$
1996 24 12.80% 740,924,146.00$
1997 27 13.99% 889,415,108.00$
1998 19 15.46% 1,046,011,656.00$
1999 21 11.56% 848,754,297.00$
2000 19 10.42% 785,491,260.00$
2001 18 11.02% 914,413,744.00$
2002 25 7.35% 673,939,881.00$
2003 23 7.11% 653,849,399.00$
2004 18 6.73% 624,885,940.00$
2005 17 9.32% 821,959,361.00$
2006 19 10.30% 947,010,659.00$
2007 21 15.38% 1,502,551,245.00$
2008 17 16.38% 1,602,712,839.00$
2009 16 13.72% 1,460,075,602.00$
2010 18 16.44% 1,727,156,249.00$
2011 23 19.31% 1,966,886,567.00$
2012 22 8.47% 933,803,997.00$
2013 15 9.01% 981,549,932.00$
2014 17 9.92% 1,027,851,276.00$
2015 17 6.17% 697,086,594.00$
2016 14 6.93% 655,775,020.00$
Year by Year Market Share
Page 7
Peer Comparisons
It is important when doing peer comparisons to keep the
stuff above in mind. So much of a company’s success is
dependent on creative matters, and the ability to execute
on a good idea. Capital constraints are why these
companies make deals with each other. Spreading the risk
is safer than going it alone in all cases, especially when
upfront costs get large.
While television stations still compete with one another,
DVR and streaming means that quality always wins out.
There is a lot of market to be had. People are consuming
more and more content, and there is no brand loyalty.
People will watch everything they enjoy.
Debt and Liquidity
Long-Term
Debt ($M)
Current
Ratio
Quick
Ratio
Viacom 11,913 1.23 1.00
Time Warner 24,471 1.76 1.51
Disney 16,674 0.91 0.83
Discovery 7,926 1.76 1.76
21st
Century Fox 19,488 2.01 1.57
Source: Factset
Liquidity is not a risk for Viacom. These media companies
do not have high CapEx or other expenses. Most costs are
associated with producing the content. These expenses
are high risk, since they are upfront in their entirety.
Disney is a bit different because it is a conglomerate with
many kinds of businesses.
Margins
Net
Margins
Operating
Margins
PE
Viacom 11.5% 21.9% 10.69
Time Warner 15.6% 25.8% 15.84
Disney 16.6% 25.7% 17.76
Discovery 17.1% 32.4% 15.46
21st
Century Fox 10.5% 22.5% 18.12
Source: Factset
Margins for these companies vary greatly due to the
nature of their business. Viacom’s margins have been hurt
by the recent weakness in its filmed entertainment
business. From the PE ratio, we can see how the recent
events at Viacom have impacted the share price relative to
its peers. While Viacom has experienced some weakness,
it has not seen a very dramatic decrease in EPS.
Returns and Free Cash
ROA ROE Free Cash
Margin
Viacom 6.4% 36.7% 9.6%
Time Warner 6.9% 18.6% 13.8%
Disney 10.4% 20.3% 14.1%
Discovery 7.0% 20.4% 22.3%
21st
Century Fox 6.0% 20.0% 14.6%
Source: Factset
Viacom’s cash flows have suffered recently. A few years
ago, the company authorized a $20Bn repurchase plan,
and it made use of this to buy back shares this last year.
This has boosted its ROE.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The media industry shows some defensive characteristics,
because when the economy is weak people stay in and
watch TV or stream movies. While plenty of people
complain about the price of movie tickets it is cheaper than
a trip. The real issue is when corporate earnings weaken
and they cut down on advertising spending. Usually this
leads to declines in revenue not the absence of them.
Television always has commercials.
We expect the economy to remain strong in the next few
years. Box offices have continued to grow. The companies
are breaking into more markets. For English language
content the market is becoming much more global.
While the market will continue to expand that just means
more companies can come in to fill the demand. Even with
large amounts of capital doing too many productions at
once poses serious risk. Directors, actors, editors, post-
production specialists, and other professionals are not
endless. There is also limited time, and there is little
incentive to compete head to head on every occasion.
So, there are no specific macroeconomic issues that should
be of concern. The recent low debt environment has
allowed firms to take on debt to finance more product
themselves, because they will accrue more of the benefit.
However, the low rate environment created this demand.
For Viacom, which does not run a cable service just
channels, it does not need to rely on debt in the future for
CapEx. One of the bigger drivers will be increasing wealth
in emerging markets, which would open more markets and
expand existing ones.
Page 8
VALUATION
Revenue Growth
Revenues are extremely unpredictable in this industry.
While there are certain predictable revenues from the
media networks business the filmed entertainment branch
is subject to the market’s reaction to the product.
Estimates can be made on sequels and related movies, but
brand new movies are inherently unpredictable.
When it comes to modeling the growth rates, we chose to
use analyst averages and adjusted them downward. As this
is not a current holding we feel this cautious approach will
yield the clearest signal. Media networks are projected to
grow at 1.5% next year, right around inflation levels, and
move down to 0.5%.
Verizon’s Revenue Growth
2014 -0.08%
2015 -3.74%
2016 -5.88%
Source: Viacom 2016 10-K
Filmed entertainment is trickier. The last few years has
seen revenue decline due to a variety of factors. Some are
due to missteps, and some are due to the former CEO
Dauman’s plans for the movie segment. Viacom got
involved in some high-quality projects such as The Big
Short and Interstellar before that. These films just tend to
be outside their normal space. Children’s movies push
viewers to their media network properties, and generate
follow-up short films, DVDs, and licensed products.
While Interstellar and The Big Short were high quality
pictures they had niche audiences and were not something
Viacom could continue to leverage. They were only
distributor, but they could easily make a partnership to do
more. In addition to that subtle shift a few of the recent
movies did not bring in much revenue. The segment has
seen a decline from over $4bn a few years ago, to between
$2-3bn now. We project the revenue next year will grow
7%, simply to bring them into line with the company’s size
and general performance. It remains conservative relative
to analysts.
The effect of these growth numbers boils down to 2012
and 2021, the end of our forecast, having revenues that
are very close $13,887M and $13,923M respectively. This
is one of the reasons we are confident in our buy
recommendation, though not necessarily the exact price.
Cost of Goods Sold
This is extremely difficult to estimate for most things.
Production costs are upfront and fixed once done. A major
blockbuster does not cost more due to being a major
blockbuster, after the fact. The expectation of major
success can increase spending, but this is not guaranteed.
If a production cost $100M, then the cost of goods sold
changes based on whether it makes $50M or $300M. Each
production is different, and the success of one does not
affect another. The same is true of television. The success
of an MTV show does not determine the success of a
Nickelodeon show.
For reference, when filmed entertainment did well and
generated profits for the company COGS as a percentage
of revenue was 17.87%. In 2015 that number was 51.76%,
and in 2016 it was 53.52%. Erring on the side of caution
again we chose 52% for COGS, which gives tremendous
opportunity if the next few films do well.
Selling, General, and Administrative Expense
SG&A expense does not vary much from year to year. We
fix ours at the high end of the small range at 23% and move
that up to 23.50% later in forecast due to the eventual
online push the company will make.
-25.00%
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
Revenue Growth Rates
Media
Networks
Filmed
Entertainment
Total Revenue
Growth
Source of Historical Data: Viacom 10-k 2016, 2015, 2014
Page 9
Other
There are no significant CapEx assumptions, nor other
major cost assumptions. We keep the same debt structure
anticipating that the recent missteps will push reducing
debt off into the future. We do not project any buybacks
beyond the $4.9B currently left on their authorization.9
Continuing Growth Assumptions
We assume that the company continues growing at 1%,
which is below expected inflation. This is due to increased
competition since barriers to entry are even lower on the
Internet. Then there is the long-term decline in television.
The cautiousness of the assumption also gives strength to
the buy recommendation.
Alternative Valuation
Relative PE gives a valuation of $51.42 and the dividend
discount model gives a price of $43.94. You can adjust
these for the class B shares, the recent year has seen a
premium of over $4 for the class A shares over the B.
However, historically this premium has shrunk down to $1
or $2 or disappeared altogether.
Since the largest shareholder controls 80% of the voting
shares there is no reason to give those shares a premium.
Even owning all of them would not give significant power
to affect the direction of the company. Both valuation
methods confirm the buy rating. This can change to a hold
with upside depending on the premium knocked off for
nonvoting shares, but if there is upside after all that it
makes the recommendation a safe one.
Implied Value:
Relative P/E (EPS17) $ 51.42
Relative P/E (EPS18) $ 61.02
PEG Ratio (EPS17) $ 20.50
PEG Ratio (EPS18) $ 24.38
Data for Estimates: FactSet
For Verizon, the DCF or the dividend discount model can
be used. The issue with the dividend discount model is the
same as the one with the relative PE. There is too much
reliance on the calculated EPS numbers in the model.
Compared to analysts, the model’s EPS numbers are far
lower, despite having higher revenues. Relative PE has a
problem with outliers like US Cellular with a 2016 PE
estimate of 76.6. Compared to AT&T, similar size and
business, and Comcast, similar size, Verizon is more fairly
valued in relative terms.
KEYS TO MONITOR
An eye needs to be kept on media network revenue.
Significant declines would change the recommendation. A
decline is factored into the recommendation, but not very
fast decline. Also, if Viacom does not come up with an
online strategy or platform it would endanger its viability
in the future and the recommendation would change.
More missteps in filmed entertainment would bring into
question the effectiveness of management even if they
were not enough to really change the model. There is also
the issue of family control. If more personality issues affect
the business it might be better to sit out Viacom.
The details of the CBS merger will also be important going
forward. If CBS acquires Viacom and there is a solid
premium it might be worth selling the stock to take the
benefit. Viacom and CBS are struggling with the changes in
their industry so it might be better to avoid them for now.
REFERENCES
1. Viacom Brands -
http://www.viacom.com/brands/pages/default.aspx
2. Viacom Affiliate Fees -
http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Viacom_(VIA)/Affili
ate_Fees
3. Traditional TV just got bashed by an influential expert
- Business Insider -
http://www.businessinsider.com/traditional-tv-is-in-
decline-2015-8
4. Viacom Is a Buy: It's Cheap and The Market
Misunderstands Its Business - SeekingAlpha -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4007614-viacom-
buy-cheap-market-misunderstands-business
5. 4Q2016 Earnings Call Transcript - SeekingAlpha -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4021668-viacoms-
viab-ceo-tom-dooley-q4-2016-results-earnings-call-
transcript
6. GOLDEN CYCLE, LLC V. ALLEN, 16301 (DEL.CH. 1998) -
Case Text - https://casetext.com/case/golden-cycle-
llc-v-allen
Page 10
7. Viacom CEO paid more than you think: Expert - CNBC
- http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/09/viacom-ceo-
paid-more-than-you-think-expert.html
8. 2016 Entertainment & Media Industry Trends - PwC -
http://www.strategyand.pwc.com/perspectives/2016
-entertainment-media-industry-trends
9. Viacom 2016 10-k -
http://ir.viacom.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1339947-
16-110&CIK=1339947
10. ‘Monster Trucks’ Drove Viacom’s $115M Charge Even
Before Its Release – Deadline Hollywood -
http://deadline.com/2016/09/monster-trucks-drove-
viacom-115m-charge-before-release-1201824353/
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
Henry Fund reports are created by student enrolled in the
Applied Securities Management (Henry Fund) program at
the University of Iowa’s Tippie School of Management.
These reports are intended to provide potential employers
and other interested parties an example of the analytical
skills, investment knowledge, and communication abilities
of Henry Fund students. Henry Fund analysts are not
registered investment advisors, brokers or officially
licensed financial professionals. The investment opinion
contained in this report does not represent an offer or
solicitation to buy or sell any of the aforementioned
securities. Unless otherwise noted, facts and figures
included in this report are from publicly available sources.
This report is not a complete compilation of data, and its
accuracy is not guaranteed. From time to time, the
University of Iowa, its faculty, staff, students, or the Henry
Fund may hold a financial interest in the companies
mentioned in this report.
Viacom Inc
Revenue Decomposition
Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
Media Networks 9,656 10,171 10,490 9,942 10,041.42 10,141.83 10,217.90 10,294.53 10,346.00
Filmed Entertainment 4,282 3,725 2,883 2,662 2,848.34 2,990.76 3,110.39 3,359.22 3,577.57
Eliminations -144 -113 -105 -116 - - - - -
Total 13,794.00 13,783.00 13,268.00 12,488.00 12,889.76 13,132.59 13,328.29 13,653.75 13,923.57
Media Networks 5.03% 5.33% 3.14% -5.22% 1.00% 1.00% 0.75% 0.75% 0.50%
Filmed Entertainment -11.16% -13.01% -22.60% -7.67% 7.00% 5.00% 4.00% 8.00% 6.50%
Eliminations 13.39% -21.53% -7.08% 10.48%
Total -0.67% -0.08% -3.74% -5.88% 3.22% 1.88% 1.49% 2.44% 1.98%
Media Networks 70.00% 73.79% 79.06% 79.61% 77.90% 77.23% 76.66% 75.40% 74.31%
Filmed Entertainment 31.04% 27.03% 21.73% 21.32% 22.10% 22.77% 23.34% 24.60% 25.69%
Eliminations -1.04% -0.82% -0.79% -0.93% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Viacom Inc
Income Statement
Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Income Statement
Sales 13,783.00 13,268.00 12,488.00 12,889.76 13,132.59 13,328.29 13,653.75 13,923.57
COGS excluding D&A 2,463.00 6,868.00 6,684.00 6,702.68 6,828.95 6,930.71 7,099.95 7,240.26
Depreciation 177.00 188.00 188.00 185.02 216.56 246.71 276.85 310.72
Amortization of Intangibles 40.00 34.00 33.00 30.57 41.07 53.63 66.20 79.98
Gross Income 11,103.00 6,178.00 5,583.00 5,971.49 6,046.01 6,097.24 6,210.75 6,292.62
SG&A Expense 2,899.00 2,860.00 2,851.00 2,964.64 3,020.50 3,132.15 3,208.63 3,272.04
EBIT (Operating Income) 8,204.00 3,318.00 2,732.00 3,006.84 3,025.51 2,965.09 3,002.12 3,020.58
Nonoperating Income - Net 58.00 66.00 80.00 82.57 84.13 85.38 87.47 89.20
Interest Expense 615.00 657.00 616.00 611.23 623.23 632.43 641.54 653.95
Unusual Expense - Net 54.00 224.00 293.00 - - - -
Pretax Income 3,514.00 2,503.00 1,990.00 2,478.18 2,486.42 2,418.04 2,448.04 2,455.83
Income Taxes 1,050.00 501.00 519.00 693.89 696.20 677.05 685.45 687.63
Consolidated Net Income 2,464.00 2,002.00 1,471.00 1,784.29 1,790.22 1,740.99 1,762.59 1,768.20
Minority Interest 72.00 80.00 35.00 42.45 42.60 41.42 41.94 42.07
Net Income 2,392.00 1,922.00 1,436.00 1,741.84 1,747.62 1,699.57 1,720.65 1,726.12
Net Income available to Common 2,391.00 1,922.00 1,438.00 1,741.84 1,747.62 1,699.57 1,720.65 1,726.12
EPS 5.77 4.83 3.62 4.56 4.74 4.76 4.96 5.11
Total Shares Outstanding 414.20 398.10 397.00 381.66 368.69 356.86 346.98 337.88
Dividends per Share 1.26 1.46 1.40 1.44 1.49 1.56 1.64 1.77
Payout Ratio 21.83% 30.24% 38.65% 31.60% 31.33% 32.75% 33.02% 34.62%
Div Growth 9.57% 15.87% -4.11% 3.00% 3.00% 5.00% 5.00% 8.00%
Viacom Inc
Balance Sheet
Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
Assets
Cash & Short-Term Investments 1,000.00 506.00 379.00 (81.90) 671.62 1,471.69 2,204.58 2,286.10
Short-Term Receivables 3,066.00 2,807.00 2,712.00 2,799.25 2,851.98 2,894.48 2,965.16 3,023.76
Inventories 846.00 786.00 844.00 871.15 887.56 900.79 922.79 941.02
Other Current Assets 340.00 559.00 587.00 605.88 617.30 626.50 641.80 654.48
Total Current Assets 5,252.00 4,658.00 4,522.00 4,194.39 5,028.46 5,893.46 6,734.33 6,905.37
Net Property, Plant & Equipment 1,016.00 947.00 932.00 1,090.88 1,242.76 1,394.56 1,565.15 1,735.32
Total Investments and Advances 345.00 434.00 542.00 549.10 547.38 573.87 601.42 630.24
Long-Term Note Receivable 482.00 577.00 547.00 437.60 328.20 218.80 109.40 0.00
Net Goodwill 11,535.00 11,456.00 11,400.00 11,400.00 11,400.00 11,400.00 11,400.00 11,400.00
Net Other Intangibles 399.00 340.00 315.00 423.15 552.52 682.09 824.02 967.07
Deferred Tax Assets 0.00 45.00 43.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Assets 4,088.00 3,760.00 4,207.00 4,342.35 4,424.15 4,490.08 4,599.72 4,690.62
Total Assets 23,117.00 22,217.00 22,508.00 22,437.46 23,523.48 24,652.87 25,834.05 26,328.62
Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity
ST Debt & Curr. Portion LT Debt 18.00 18.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Accounts Payable 475.00 506.00 453.00 467.57 476.38 483.48 495.29 505.08
Other Current Liabilities 3,442.00 3,330.00 3,202.00 3,305.01 3,367.28 3,417.45 3,500.91 3,570.09
Total Current Liabilities 3,935.00 3,854.00 3,672.00 3,772.59 3,843.66 3,900.94 3,996.19 4,075.16
Long-Term Debt 12,751.00 12,267.00 11,896.00 11,820.81 12,052.76 12,230.72 12,406.97 12,646.90
Employee Benefit Obligations 404.00 444.00 504.00 520.21 530.01 537.91 551.05 561.94
Deferred Tax Liabilities 266.00 223.00 381.00 - - - - -
Other Liabilities 1,798.00 1,611.00 1,514.00 902.28 787.96 799.70 819.23 835.41
Total Liabilities 19,154.00 18,399.00 17,967.00 17,015.90 17,214.39 17,469.26 17,773.44 18,119.42
Common Equity 9,772.00 10,017.00 10,139.00 10,808.08 11,475.59 12,187.07 12,891.61 12,891.61
Retained Earnings 13,465.00 14,780.00 15,628.00 16,819.48 18,019.50 19,162.54 20,315.00 21,443.59
Cumulative Translation Adjustment/Unrealized For. Exch. Gain (106.00) (341.00) (435.00) (435.00) (435.00) (435.00) (435.00) (435.00)
Unrealized Gain/Loss Marketable Securities 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Other Appropriated Reserves (187.00) (193.00) (258.00) (258.00) (258.00) (258.00) (258.00) (258.00)
Treasury Stock (19,225.00) (20,725.00) (20,798.00) (21,778.00) (22,758.00) (23,738.00) (24,718.00) (25,698.00)
Total Shareholders' Equity 3,719.00 3,538.00 4,277.00 5,157.56 6,045.09 6,919.60 7,796.61 7,945.20
Accumulated Minority Interest 244.00 280.00 264.00 264.00 264.00 264.00 264.00 264.00
Total Equity 3,963.00 3,818.00 4,541.00 5,421.56 6,309.09 7,183.60 8,060.61 8,209.20
Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 23,117.00 22,217.00 22,508.00 22,437.46 23,523.48 24,652.87 25,834.05 26,328.62
Viacom Inc
Historical Cash Flow Statement
Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016
Net Income / Starting Line 1,251.00 1,568.00 864.00 2,109.00 2,385.00 2,464.00 2,002.00 1,471.00
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 405.00 391.00 222.00 271.00 236.00 217.00 222.00 221.00
Depreciation and Depletion 264.00 -- 161.00 189.00 171.00 177.00 188.00 188.00
Amortization of Intangible Assets 141.00 -- 61.00 82.00 65.00 40.00 34.00 33.00
Deferred Taxes & Investment Tax Credit 14.00 87.00 -119.00 376.00 -87.00 -290.00 -82.00 254.00
Other Funds 5,096.00 3,465.00 3,425.00 4,845.00 4,497.00 4,332.00 4,931.00 4,648.00
Funds from Operations 6,766.00 5,511.00 4,392.00 7,601.00 7,031.00 6,723.00 7,073.00 6,594.00
Changes in Working Capital -4,730.00 -4,360.00 -3,245.00 -4,957.00 -4,533.00 -4,126.00 -4,760.00 -5,223.00
Receivables 279.00 208.00 410.00 -292.00 270.00 -106.00 124.00 149.00
Inventories -4,731.00 -4,048.00 -3,251.00 -4,538.00 -4,492.00 -4,245.00 -4,826.00 -5,102.00
Accounts Payable -278.00 -520.00 -404.00 -127.00 -367.00 252.00 -9.00 -229.00
Other Assets/Liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 56.00 -27.00 -49.00 -41.00
Net Operating Cash Flow 2,036.00 1,151.00 1,147.00 2,644.00 2,498.00 2,597.00 2,313.00 1,371.00
Investing Activities
Capital Expenditures -288.00 -141.00 -105.00 -155.00 -154.00 -123.00 -142.00 -172.00
Net Assets from Acquisitions -225.00 0.00 0.00 -- 0.00 0.00 -- --
Sale of Fixed Assets & Businesses 0.00 0.00 0.00 -- -- -- -- --
Purchase/Sale of Investments -71.00 0.00 -63.00 0.00 0.00 -732.00 0.00 0.00
Purchase of Investments 71.00 0.00 63.00 0.00 0.00 732.00 0.00 0.00
Sale/Maturity of Investments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Funds 13.00 -133.00 0.00 -72.00 -102.00 0.00 -115.00 -127.00
Other Uses 0.00 -133.00 0.00 -72.00 -102.00 0.00 -115.00 -127.00
Other Sources 13.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net Investing Cash Flow -571.00 -274.00 -168.00 -227.00 -256.00 -855.00 -257.00 -299.00
Financing Activities
Cash Dividends Paid 0.00 0.00 -91.00 -417.00 -554.00 -541.00 -564.00 -635.00
Change in Capital Stock -1,275.00 -7.00 0.00 -2,286.00 -2,541.00 -3,356.00 -1,402.00 -89.00
Repurchase of Common & Preferred Stk. -1,275.00 -8.00 -- -2,450.00 -2,809.00 -3,529.00 -1,548.00 -100.00
Sale of Common & Preferred Stock 0.00 1.00 0.00 164.00 268.00 173.00 146.00 11.00
Change in Long-Term Debt -280.00 -1,368.00 -292.00 629.00 801.00 884.00 -410.00 -368.00
Issuance of Long-Term Debt 2,845.00 5,478.00 -- 1,405.00 2,116.00 1,484.00 990.00 0.00
Reduction in Long-Term Debt -3,125.00 -6,846.00 -292.00 -776.00 -1,315.00 -600.00 -1,400.00 -368.00
Other Funds 0.00 -13.00 -53.00 -153.00 -119.00 -87.00 -101.00 -81.00
Other Uses 0.00 -13.00 -53.00 -166.00 -156.00 -171.00 -144.00 -81.00
Other Sources 0.00 -- 0.00 13.00 37.00 84.00 43.00 0.00
Net Financing Cash Flow -1,555.00 -1,388.00 -436.00 -2,227.00 -2,413.00 -3,100.00 -2,477.00 -1,173.00
Viacom Inc
Historical Cash Flow Statement
Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
Operating Activities
Net Income / Starting Line 1,741.84 1,747.62 1,699.57 1,720.65 1,726.12
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 215.60 257.63 300.34 343.05 390.70
Deferred Taxes & Investment Tax Credit -338.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Funds
Receivables -87.25 -52.74 -42.50 -70.68 -58.60
Inventories -27.15 -16.41 -13.23 -22.00 -18.24
Accounts Payable 14.57 8.81 7.10 11.81 9.79
Other Assets/Liabilities -646.72 -135.48 -5.31 -8.83 -7.32
Net Operating Cash Flow 872.89 1,809.44 1,945.97 1,974.01 2,042.46
Investing Activities
Capital Expenditures -482.62 -538.89 -581.71 -655.57 -703.91
Acquisitions 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Purchase/Sale Investments 102.30 111.12 82.91 81.85 80.58
Other Sources
Net Investing Cash Flow -380.32 -427.77 -498.81 -573.72 -623.33
Financing Activities
Cash Dividends Paid -550.36 -547.60 -556.53 -568.18 -597.54
Change in Capital Stock -310.92 -312.50 -268.52 -275.46 -980.00
Issuance/Reduction of Debt, Net -92.19 231.94 177.96 176.26 239.93
Other Funds
Other Uses
Other Sources
Net Financing Cash Flow -953.46 -628.15 -647.09 -667.39 -1,337.61
Net Change in Cash -460.90 753.52 800.07 732.89 81.52
Viacom Inc
Common Size Income Statement
Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Income Statement
Sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
COGS excluding D&A 17.87% 51.76% 53.52% 52.00% 52.00% 52.00% 52.00% 52.00%
Depreciation 1.28% 1.42% 1.51% 1.44% 1.65% 1.85% 2.03% 2.23%
Amortization of Intangibles 0.29% 0.26% 0.26% 0.24% 0.31% 0.40% 0.48% 0.57%
Gross Income 80.56% 46.56% 44.71% 46.33% 46.04% 45.75% 45.49% 45.19%
SG&A Expense 21.03% 21.56% 22.83% 23.00% 23.00% 23.50% 23.50% 23.50%
EBIT (Operating Income) 59.52% 25.01% 21.88% 23.33% 23.04% 22.25% 21.99% 21.69%
Nonoperating Income - Net 0.42% 0.50% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64%
Interest Expense 4.46% 4.95% 4.93% 4.74% 4.75% 4.75% 4.70% 4.70%
Unusual Expense - Net 0.39% 1.69% 2.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Pretax Income 25.50% 18.86% 15.94% 19.23% 18.93% 18.14% 17.93% 17.64%
Income Taxes 7.62% 3.78% 4.16% 5.38% 5.30% 5.08% 5.02% 4.94%
Consolidated Net Income 17.88% 15.09% 11.78% 13.84% 13.63% 13.06% 12.91% 12.70%
Minority Interest 0.52% 0.60% 0.28% 0.33% 0.32% 0.31% 0.31% 0.30%
Net Income 17.35% 14.49% 11.50% 13.51% 13.31% 12.75% 12.60% 12.40%
Net Income available to Common 17.35% 14.49% 11.52% 13.51% 13.31% 12.75% 12.60% 12.40%
Viacom Inc
Balance Sheet
Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
Assets
Cash & Short-Term Investments 7.26% 3.81% 3.03% -0.64% 5.11% 11.04% 16.15% 16.42%
Short-Term Receivables 22.24% 21.16% 21.72% 21.72% 21.72% 21.72% 21.72% 21.72%
Inventories 6.14% 5.92% 6.76% 6.76% 6.76% 6.76% 6.76% 6.76%
Other Current Assets 2.47% 4.21% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70%
Total Current Assets 38.10% 35.11% 36.21% 32.54% 38.29% 44.22% 49.32% 49.59%
Net Property, Plant & Equipment 7.37% 7.14% 7.46% 8.46% 9.46% 10.46% 11.46% 12.46%
Total Investments and Advances 2.50% 3.27% 4.34% 4.26% 4.17% 4.31% 4.40% 4.53%
Long-Term Note Receivable 3.50% 4.35% 4.38% 3.39% 2.50% 1.64% 0.80% 0.00%
Net Goodwill 83.69% 86.34% 91.29% 88.44% 86.81% 85.53% 83.49% 81.88%
Net Other Intangibles 2.89% 2.56% 2.52% 3.28% 4.21% 5.12% 6.04% 6.95%
Other Assets 29.66% 28.34% 33.69% 33.69% 33.69% 33.69% 33.69% 33.69%
Total Assets 167.72% 167.45% 180.24% 174.07% 179.12% 184.97% 189.21% 189.09%
Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity
ST Debt & Curr. Portion LT Debt 0.13% 0.14% 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Accounts Payable 3.45% 3.81% 3.63% 3.63% 3.63% 3.63% 3.63% 3.63%
Other Current Liabilities 24.97% 25.10% 25.64% 25.64% 25.64% 25.64% 25.64% 25.64%
Total Current Liabilities 28.55% 29.05% 29.40% 29.27% 29.27% 29.27% 29.27% 29.27%
Long-Term Debt 92.51% 92.46% 95.26% 91.71% 91.78% 91.77% 90.87% 90.83%
Employee Benefit Obligations 2.93% 3.35% 4.04% 4.04% 4.04% 4.04% 4.04% 4.04%
Deferred Tax Liabilities 1.93% 1.68% 3.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Other Liabilities 13.05% 12.14% 12.12% 7.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
Total Liabilities 138.97% 138.67% 143.87% 132.01% 131.08% 131.07% 130.17% 130.13%
Common Equity 70.90% 75.50% 81.19% 83.85% 87.38% 91.44% 94.42% 92.59%
Retained Earnings 97.69% 111.40% 125.14% 130.49% 137.21% 143.77% 148.79% 154.01%
Cumulative Translation Adjustment/Unrealized For. Exch. Gain -0.77% -2.57% -3.48% -3.37% -3.31% -3.26% -3.19% -3.12%
Unrealized Gain/Loss Marketable Securities 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
Other Appropriated Reserves -1.36% -1.45% -2.07% -2.00% -1.96% -1.94% -1.89% -1.85%
Treasury Stock -139.48% -156.20% -166.54% -168.96% -173.29% -178.10% -181.03% -184.56%
Total Shareholders' Equity 26.98% 26.67% 34.25% 40.01% 46.03% 51.92% 57.10% 57.06%
Accumulated Minority Interest 1.77% 2.11% 2.11% 2.05% 2.01% 1.98% 1.93% 1.90%
Total Equity 28.75% 28.78% 36.36% 42.06% 48.04% 53.90% 59.04% 58.96%
Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 167.72% 167.45% 180.24% 174.07% 179.12% 184.97% 189.21% 189.09%
Viacom Inc
Value Driver Estimation
Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
Sales 13,783.00 13,268.00 12,488.00 12,889.76 13,132.59 13,328.29 13,653.75 13,923.57
COGS excluding D&A 2,463.00 6,868.00 6,684.00 6,702.68 6,828.95 6,930.71 7,099.95 7,240.26
Depreciation 177.00 188.00 188.00 185.02 216.56 246.71 276.85 310.72
Amortization of Intangibles 40.00 34.00 33.00 30.57 41.07 53.63 66.20 79.98
SG&A 2,899.00 2,860.00 2,851.00 2,964.64 3,020.50 3,132.15 3,208.63 3,272.04
+PV of Interest on Op Leases 64.80 68.77 71.63 67.51 69.68 70.99 72.05 73.81
EBITA 8,268.80 3,386.77 2,803.63 3,074.35 3,095.20 3,036.08 3,074.17 3,094.39
106.95% -59.04% -17.22% 9.66% 0.68% -1.91% 1.25% 0.66%
Pre Tax Income 3,514.00 2,503.00 1,990.00 2,478.18 2,486.42 2,418.04 2,448.04 2,455.83
Total Income Tax Provision (inc. tax) 1,050.00 501.00 519.00 693.89 696.20 677.05 685.45 687.63
Tax Rate = Pre Tax/Total Inc. Provision. 29.88% 20.02% 26.08% 28.00% 28.00% 28.00% 28.00% 28.00%
Plus Tax Shield on Interest Expense 183.76 131.50 160.66 171.15 174.50 177.08 179.63 183.11
Plus Tax on Lease Interest 19.36 13.77 18.68 18.90 19.51 19.88 20.17 20.67
Plus Tax Shield on Amortized Goodwill 16.14 44.84 76.42 - - - - -
Minus Tax on Non-Operating Income (Plus
in this formula) (Nonop Int. Income+Other
Inc)
17.33 13.21 20.86 23.12 23.56 23.91 24.49 24.98
Less Adjusted Taxes 1,251.93 677.90 753.89 860.82 866.65 850.10 860.77 866.43
Plus Change in Deferred Taxes (383.00) (43.00) 158.00 (381.00) - - - -
Equals NOPLAT 6,633.86 2,665.88 2,207.74 1,832.54 2,228.54 2,185.98 2,213.40 2,227.96
NOPLAT Growth % 149.81% -59.81% -17.19% -17.00% 21.61% -1.91% 1.25% 0.66%
Normal Cash (2% * Sales) 275.66 265.36 249.76 257.80 262.65 266.57 273.08 278.47
Short-Term Receivables 3,066.00 2,807.00 2,712.00 2,799.25 2,851.98 2,894.48 2,965.16 3,023.76
Inventory 846.00 786.00 844.00 871.15 887.56 900.79 922.79 941.02
Other Current Assets 340.00 559.00 587.00 605.88 617.30 626.50 641.80 654.48
Operating Current Assets 4,527.66 4,417.36 4,392.76 4,534.08 4,619.50 4,688.34 4,802.82 4,897.73
Accounts Payable 475.00 506.00 453.00 467.57 476.38 483.48 495.29 505.08
Non Interest-Bearing Current Liabilities 741.00 729.00 834.00 467.57 476.38 483.48 495.29 505.08
Net Operating Working Capital 3,786.66 3,688.36 3,558.76 4,066.51 4,143.12 4,204.86 4,307.54 4,392.66
Plus Net PPE 1,016.00 947.00 932.00 1,090.88 1,242.76 1,394.56 1,565.15 1,735.32
PV of Operating Leases 1,343.20 1,399.08 1,318.56 1,360.98 1,386.62 1,407.28 1,441.65 1,470.13
Net Other Intangibles 399.00 340.00 315.00 423.15 552.52 682.09 824.02 967.07
Other Assets 4,088.00 3,760.00 4,207.00 4,342.35 4,424.15 4,490.08 4,599.72 4,690.62
Plus Net Other Operating Assets 5,830.20 5,499.08 5,840.56 6,126.47 6,363.29 6,579.45 6,865.39 7,127.83
Less other Liab. (BS line items) 3,442.00 3,330.00 3,202.00 3,305.01 3,367.28 3,417.45 3,500.91 3,570.09
Invested Capital 7,190.86 6,804.44 7,129.32 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17 9,685.72
WACC 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00%
NOPLAT 6,633.86 2,665.88 2,207.74 1,832.54 2,228.54 2,185.98 2,213.40 2,227.96
Beg Invested Capital 6,776.42 7,190.86 6,804.44 7,129.32 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17
End Invested Capital 7,190.86 6,804.44 7,129.32 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17 9,685.72
ROIC (NOPLAT/Beg IC) 97.90% 37.07% 32.45% 25.70% 27.93% 26.08% 25.26% 24.12%
FCF (NOPLAT - Change in IC) 6,219.43 3,052.29 1,882.87 983.01 1,825.50 1,806.46 1,737.65 1,779.42
EP (Beg IC * (ROIC-WACC)) 6,159.69 2,162.70 1,731.61 1,333.67 1,670.23 1,599.47 1,600.33 1,581.60
Viacom Inc
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Estimation
2016
Risk Free Rate (30yr T-Bond as of 9/9/16) 3.01%
Market Risk Premium (Henry Fund Team Choice) 5.00%
Beta (Bloomberg) 1.400
Cost of Equity (Risk Free + (Beta * Mkt Risk) 10.01%
Cost of Debt (From Bond Maturity: 08/21/2046) 5.12%
Cost of Preferred Shares 0
Marginal Tax Rate (Effective) 28.00%
Total Shares Outstanding 397.00
Price $37.77
Mkt Value of Equity ( E ) 14,994.69$
FMV of Debt 11,820.81$
Operating Leases (PV) 1,318.56$
Underfunded Pension Liabilities 504.00$
Mkt Value of Debt ( D ) 13,643$
Mkt Value of Preferred (Pfd) -$
Mkt Value of Firm (E+D+PfD) (V) 28,638.06$
Equity Portion of WACC (Cost of Equity * E/V) 5.24%
Debt Portion of WACC (cost of Debt* (1-t) * D/V) 1.76%
Preferred Portion of WACC (Cost of Preferred * Pfd/V) -$
WACC 7.00%
Viacom Inc
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Economic Profit (EP) Valuation Models
Key Inputs:
CV NOPLAT Growth 1.00% Beg IC 2017 7,129.32
CV ROIC 24.12% Shares Outstanding 381.66
WACC 7.00%
Cost of Equity 10.01%
Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E CV (End of 2021/Beg 2022)
DCF Model
NOPLAT 1,832.54 2,228.54 2,185.98 2,213.40 2,227.96
Beg IC 7,129.32 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17
End IC 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17 9,685.72
ROIC 25.70% 27.93% 26.08% 25.26% 24.12%
DCF CV (NOPLAT*(1- g/ROIC)/(WACC-g)) 35,608.65
FCF (NOPLAT - Change in IC) 983.01 1,825.50 1,806.46 1,737.65 1,779.42
PV of FCF 918.72 1,594.54 1,474.72 1,325.77 1,268.85 25,391.57
V of Oper (Sum of PV of FCF) 31,974.17
Cash (81.90)
Normal Cash (Sales * Normal Cash %) (2%) 257.80
Excess Cash (Cash-Normal Cash) -
Minority Interests (- V of Other) (264.00)
Long Term Investments 986.70
V of Non-Oper 722.70
-V of Debt = FMV of Debt (From WACC sheet) 13,643.37
-PV of ESOP 113.39
V of Equity 18,940.10$
Shares Outstanding 381.66
Target Price (V of Equity/Shares) 49.63$
To Today's Value 52.68$
EP Model
NOPLAT 1,832.54 2,228.54 2,185.98 2,213.40 2,227.96
Beg IC 7,129.32 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17
End IC 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17 9,685.72
ROIC 25.70% 27.93% 26.08% 25.26% 24.12%
EP CV 26,371.48
EP (Beg IC * (ROIC-WACC)) 1,333.67 1,670.23 1,599.47 1,600.33 1,581.60
Discounted EP 1,246.45 1,458.91 1,305.74 1,221.00 1,127.80 18,485.13
V of Oper (Beg IC 2015 + Sum of PV of EP) 31,974.35
V of Non-Oper 722.70
-V of Debt = FMV of Debt (From WACC sheet) 13,643.37
-PV of ESOP 113.39
V of Equity 18,940.29$
Shares Outstanding 381.66
Target Price (V of Equity/Shares) 49.63$
To Today's Value 52.68$
Viacom Inc
Dividend Discount Model (DDM) or Fundamental P/E Valuation Model
1 2 3 4 5
Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
EPS 4.56$ 4.74$ 4.76$ 4.96$ 5.11$
Key Assumptions
Growth -24.97% 26.00% 3.86% 0.47% 4.12%
CV Growth 1.00%
ROE 32.13% 27.70% 23.66% 21.35% 21.03%
Cost of Equity 10.01% 10.01% 10.01% 10.01% 10.01%
Future Cash Flows
P/E Multiple (CV Year) 13.66
EPS (CV Year) 5.11$
Future Stock Price 56.70$
Dividends Per Share 1.44$ 1.49$ 1.56$ 1.64$ 1.77$
Discounted Cash Flows 1.31$ 1.23$ 1.17$ 1.12$ 36.29$
Intrinsic Value 41.12$
To Today's Price 43.64$
Viacom Inc
Relative Valuation Models
Direct Competitors
EPS EPS Est. 5yr
Ticker Company Price 2017E 2018E P/E 17 EPS gr. PEG 17 PEG 18
DIS Walt Disney Co $98.24 $5.97 $6.70 16.5 9.6 1.71 1.53
TWX Time Warner Inc $91.35 $5.78 $5.93 15.8 14.0 1.13 1.10
DISCA Discovery Communications Inc $27.50 $2.07 $2.30 13.3 14.1 0.94 0.85
SNI Scripps Networks Interactive Inc $69.65 $5.26 $5.31 13.2 9.0 1.47 1.46
FOXA Twenty-First Century Fox Inc $27.82 $1.91 $2.11 14.6 9.8 1.49 1.35
Average 14.2 1.3 1.2
VIA Viacom Inc $42.05 3.62 4.56 11.6 4.4 2.6 2.1
Implied Value:
Relative P/E (EPS17) $ 51.52
Relative P/E (EPS18) 61.23$
PEG Ratio (EPS17) 20.24$
PEG Ratio (EPS18) 24.09$
Viacom Inc
Key Management Ratios
Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio = Current Assets/Current Liabilities 1.77 1.33 1.21 1.23 1.11 1.31 1.51 1.69
Current Ratio ex Cash = Curr Assets ex Cash/Curr Liab 1.14 1.08 1.08 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13
Quick Ratio = (Cash+Marketable Securities+Accounts
Receivables)/Current Liabilities 1.57 1.12 1.00 1.00 0.88 1.08 1.28 1.45
Quick Ratio ex Cash 0.94 0.87 0.87 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90
Operating Cash Flow Ratio = Cash Flow From
Operations/Current Liabilities 0.52 0.30 0.31 0.23 0.47 0.50 0.49
Activity or Asset-Management Ratios
Total Assets Turnover = Sales/Total Assets 0.58 0.60 0.60 0.55 0.57 0.56 0.54 0.53
Total Assets Turnover ex Cash 0.64 0.62 0.61 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.58
Inventory Turnover 8.83 2.91 8.74 7.92 7.69 7.69 7.69 7.69
Financial Leverage Ratios
Debt Ratio = Total Liab/Total Assets 77.38% 82.86% 82.81% 79.82% 75.84% 73.18% 70.86% 68.80%
Debt Ratio ex Cash 86.06% 86.60% 84.75% 81.19% 75.56% 75.33% 75.36% 75.22%
Equity Ratio = Total Equity/Total Assets 21.79% 16.09% 15.92% 19.00% 22.99% 25.70% 28.07% 30.18%
Equity Ratio ex Cash 24.24% 16.82% 16.30% 19.33% 22.90% 26.45% 29.85% 33.00%
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin Ratio= (Sales-COGS-SG&A)/Sales 61.10% 61.10% 26.68% 23.65% 25.00% 25.00% 24.50% 24.50%
Profit Margin Ratio = Net Income/Sales 17.35% 17.35% 14.49% 11.50% 13.51% 13.31% 12.75% 12.60%
ROA = Net Income/Avg Total Assets 10.21% 10.19% 8.48% 6.42% 7.75% 7.60% 7.06% 6.82%
ROE= Net Income/Shareholder Equity 46.06% 64.32% 54.32% 33.57% 33.77% 28.91% 24.56% 22.07%
Payout Policy Ratios
Dividend Payout Ratio 23.06% 22.62% 29.34% 44.22% 31.60% 31.33% 32.75% 33.02%
Payout Ratio = Div+Repurchase/Net Income 222.48% 164.76% 107.39% 49.30% 56.26% 56.08% 57.66% 56.96%
Viacom Inc
Sensitivity Analysis
DCF Target Price 52.68$
As of 2016-11-18
1.000 1.100 1.200 1.300 1.400 1.500 1.600 1.700 1.800 4.12% 4.37% 4.62% 4.87% 5.12% 5.37% 5.62% 5.87% 6.12%
2.21% 82.01 75.47 69.61 64.32 59.52 55.14 51.13 47.45 44.05 38.00% 57.85 56.53 55.26 54.02 52.82 51.66 50.52 49.42 48.35
2.41% 79.30 73.05 67.42 62.34 57.71 53.49 49.62 46.06 42.76 39.00% 57.82 56.50 55.23 53.99 52.79 51.62 50.48 49.38 48.31
2.61% 76.71 70.73 65.33 60.43 55.97 51.90 48.15 44.70 41.51 40.00% 57.79 56.47 55.19 53.95 52.75 51.58 50.45 49.34 48.27
2.81% 74.24 68.50 63.31 58.60 54.30 50.36 46.74 43.39 40.30 41.00% 57.76 56.44 55.16 53.92 52.71 51.54 50.41 49.30 48.23
3.01% 71.86 66.35 61.37 56.83 52.68 48.87 45.36 42.12 39.12 42.00% 57.73 56.41 55.13 53.88 52.68 51.51 50.37 49.26 48.18
3.21% 69.59 64.30 59.49 55.12 51.11 47.43 44.03 40.89 37.97 43.00% 57.70 56.37 55.09 53.85 52.64 51.47 50.33 49.22 48.14
3.41% 67.40 62.32 57.69 53.47 49.60 46.03 42.74 39.69 36.86 44.00% 57.67 56.34 55.06 53.81 52.60 51.43 50.29 49.18 48.10
3.61% 65.30 60.41 55.95 51.88 48.13 44.68 41.49 38.53 35.78 45.00% 57.63 56.31 55.02 53.78 52.57 51.39 50.25 49.14 48.06
3.81% 63.29 58.57 54.28 50.34 46.72 43.37 40.28 37.40 34.72 46.00% 57.60 56.28 54.99 53.74 52.53 51.35 50.21 49.10 48.02
24.00% 25.00% 26.00% 27.00% 28.00% 29.00% 30.00% 31.00% 32.00% 2.72% 2.92% 3.12% 3.32% 3.52% 3.72% 3.92% 4.12% 4.32%
4.00% 69.55 68.50 67.45 66.39 65.32 64.24 63.15 62.05 60.94 0.60% 49.41 49.41 49.41 49.41 49.41 49.41 49.41 49.41 49.41
4.25% 66.00 64.98 63.94 62.90 61.84 60.78 59.71 58.63 57.54 0.70% 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19
4.50% 62.68 61.67 60.65 59.63 58.59 57.55 56.50 55.43 54.36 0.80% 50.99 50.99 50.99 50.99 50.99 50.99 50.99 50.99 50.99
4.75% 59.57 58.57 57.57 56.56 55.54 54.52 53.48 52.44 51.39 0.90% 51.82 51.82 51.82 51.82 51.82 51.82 51.82 51.82 51.82
5.00% 56.63 55.66 54.67 53.68 52.68 51.67 50.65 49.63 48.60 1.00% 52.68 52.68 52.68 52.68 52.68 52.68 52.68 52.68 52.68
5.25% 53.87 52.91 51.94 50.96 49.98 48.99 47.99 46.99 45.97 1.10% 53.56 53.56 53.56 53.56 53.56 53.56 53.56 53.56 53.56
5.50% 51.26 50.31 49.36 48.40 47.43 46.46 45.48 44.49 43.50 1.20% 54.48 54.48 54.48 54.48 54.48 54.48 54.48 54.48 54.48
5.75% 48.79 47.86 46.92 45.98 45.03 44.07 43.11 42.14 41.16 1.30% 55.43 55.43 55.43 55.43 55.43 55.43 55.43 55.43 55.43
6.00% 46.45 45.54 44.61 43.69 42.75 41.81 40.86 39.91 38.95 1.40% 56.41 56.41 56.41 56.41 56.41 56.41 56.41 56.41 56.41
0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.60 0.00% 0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00% 1.25% 1.50% 1.75% 2.00%
21.00% 90.48 81.16 71.83 62.50 53.62 44.80 35.97 27.15 18.33 1.00% 39.97 40.83 41.74 42.69 43.70 44.77 45.90 47.10 48.37
21.50% 90.12 80.80 71.47 62.21 53.38 44.56 35.74 26.92 18.09 1.25% 39.95 40.81 41.72 42.68 43.69 44.76 45.89 47.08 48.36
22.00% 89.76 80.44 71.11 61.97 53.15 44.33 35.50 26.68 17.86 1.50% 39.94 40.80 41.71 42.66 43.67 44.74 45.87 47.07 48.34
22.50% 89.40 80.07 70.75 61.74 52.91 44.09 35.27 26.44 17.62 1.75% 39.93 40.79 41.69 42.65 43.66 44.73 45.85 47.05 48.32
23.00% 89.04 79.71 70.39 61.50 52.68 43.85 35.03 26.21 17.39 2.00% 39.91 40.77 41.68 42.64 43.64 44.71 45.84 47.04 48.31
23.50% 88.68 79.35 70.09 61.26 52.44 43.62 34.80 25.97 17.15 2.25% 39.90 40.76 41.67 42.62 43.63 44.70 45.82 47.02 48.29
24.00% 88.32 78.99 69.85 61.03 52.21 43.38 34.56 25.74 16.92 2.50% 39.89 40.75 41.65 42.61 43.61 44.68 45.81 47.00 48.27
24.50% 87.95 78.63 69.62 60.79 51.97 43.15 34.33 25.50 16.68 2.75% 39.87 40.73 41.64 42.59 43.60 44.66 45.79 46.99 48.26
25.00% 87.59 78.27 69.38 60.56 51.74 42.91 34.09 25.27 16.44 3.00% 39.86 40.72 41.62 42.58 43.58 44.65 45.78 46.97 48.24
43.64$
As of 2016-11-18
DDM Target Price
NOPLAT
CV
Growth
SG&A/Rev
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt
Normal
Cash %
Beta
COGS/REV
Risk Free
Rate
Tax Rate
Market
Risk Rate
Net Intagibles/Revenue
CV EPS Growth
Normal
Cash %

More Related Content

What's hot

Time Warner Cable Strategy written report
Time Warner Cable Strategy written reportTime Warner Cable Strategy written report
Time Warner Cable Strategy written report
David Green
 
CBS qr3q 02
CBS qr3q 02CBS qr3q 02
CBS qr3q 02
finance19
 
corporate finance - Valuation of M&A - AOL-Time Warner
corporate finance - Valuation of M&A -  AOL-Time Warner corporate finance - Valuation of M&A -  AOL-Time Warner
corporate finance - Valuation of M&A - AOL-Time Warner
Nguyen Thi Trang Nhung
 
Time Warner Cable Industry/Competitive Analysis
Time Warner Cable Industry/Competitive AnalysisTime Warner Cable Industry/Competitive Analysis
Time Warner Cable Industry/Competitive Analysis
David Green
 
GoFish Network
GoFish NetworkGoFish Network
GoFish Network
GoFish
 
Broadcasters Dialogue - July 16th 2015
Broadcasters Dialogue - July 16th 2015Broadcasters Dialogue - July 16th 2015
Broadcasters Dialogue - July 16th 2015
Margaret Garrison
 
Goog 1 q11_earnings_review
Goog 1 q11_earnings_reviewGoog 1 q11_earnings_review
Goog 1 q11_earnings_review
Brian Bolan
 
American online
American onlineAmerican online
American online
Muhammad Sohaib Afzaal
 
Newsworks Capital One effectiveness
Newsworks Capital One effectivenessNewsworks Capital One effectiveness
Newsworks Capital One effectiveness
Newsworks
 
Verizon FiOS Integrated Marketing Campaign Proposal
Verizon FiOS Integrated Marketing Campaign ProposalVerizon FiOS Integrated Marketing Campaign Proposal
Verizon FiOS Integrated Marketing Campaign Proposal
Anyarat Priyawat
 
walt disney Quarter2001 1st
walt disney  Quarter2001 1stwalt disney  Quarter2001 1st
walt disney Quarter2001 1st
finance7
 
The Warner Media (Media Conglomerate)
The Warner Media (Media Conglomerate)The Warner Media (Media Conglomerate)
The Warner Media (Media Conglomerate)
Zaibunnisa73
 
MVMNT TV Deck
MVMNT TV DeckMVMNT TV Deck
MVMNT TV Deck
MVMNTTV
 
CBS qr1q 02
CBS qr1q 02CBS qr1q 02
CBS qr1q 02
finance19
 
Broadcasting Industry Overview
Broadcasting Industry OverviewBroadcasting Industry Overview
Broadcasting Industry Overview
David Bank
 
TV Advertising is Broken
TV Advertising is BrokenTV Advertising is Broken
TV Advertising is Broken
ahendon
 
F&T stock pitch report- Talk Talk
F&T stock pitch report- Talk TalkF&T stock pitch report- Talk Talk
F&T stock pitch report- Talk Talk
Elliot Marshall
 
CMOST Study
CMOST StudyCMOST Study
CMOST Study
Marc Binkley
 
Quarterly Statistics on Media, Mobile, Social Media and Advertising
Quarterly Statistics on Media, Mobile, Social Media and AdvertisingQuarterly Statistics on Media, Mobile, Social Media and Advertising
Quarterly Statistics on Media, Mobile, Social Media and Advertising
EM3
 
Media Maven: Ad Outlook March 2012
Media Maven: Ad Outlook March 2012Media Maven: Ad Outlook March 2012
Media Maven: Ad Outlook March 2012
rpw327
 

What's hot (20)

Time Warner Cable Strategy written report
Time Warner Cable Strategy written reportTime Warner Cable Strategy written report
Time Warner Cable Strategy written report
 
CBS qr3q 02
CBS qr3q 02CBS qr3q 02
CBS qr3q 02
 
corporate finance - Valuation of M&A - AOL-Time Warner
corporate finance - Valuation of M&A -  AOL-Time Warner corporate finance - Valuation of M&A -  AOL-Time Warner
corporate finance - Valuation of M&A - AOL-Time Warner
 
Time Warner Cable Industry/Competitive Analysis
Time Warner Cable Industry/Competitive AnalysisTime Warner Cable Industry/Competitive Analysis
Time Warner Cable Industry/Competitive Analysis
 
GoFish Network
GoFish NetworkGoFish Network
GoFish Network
 
Broadcasters Dialogue - July 16th 2015
Broadcasters Dialogue - July 16th 2015Broadcasters Dialogue - July 16th 2015
Broadcasters Dialogue - July 16th 2015
 
Goog 1 q11_earnings_review
Goog 1 q11_earnings_reviewGoog 1 q11_earnings_review
Goog 1 q11_earnings_review
 
American online
American onlineAmerican online
American online
 
Newsworks Capital One effectiveness
Newsworks Capital One effectivenessNewsworks Capital One effectiveness
Newsworks Capital One effectiveness
 
Verizon FiOS Integrated Marketing Campaign Proposal
Verizon FiOS Integrated Marketing Campaign ProposalVerizon FiOS Integrated Marketing Campaign Proposal
Verizon FiOS Integrated Marketing Campaign Proposal
 
walt disney Quarter2001 1st
walt disney  Quarter2001 1stwalt disney  Quarter2001 1st
walt disney Quarter2001 1st
 
The Warner Media (Media Conglomerate)
The Warner Media (Media Conglomerate)The Warner Media (Media Conglomerate)
The Warner Media (Media Conglomerate)
 
MVMNT TV Deck
MVMNT TV DeckMVMNT TV Deck
MVMNT TV Deck
 
CBS qr1q 02
CBS qr1q 02CBS qr1q 02
CBS qr1q 02
 
Broadcasting Industry Overview
Broadcasting Industry OverviewBroadcasting Industry Overview
Broadcasting Industry Overview
 
TV Advertising is Broken
TV Advertising is BrokenTV Advertising is Broken
TV Advertising is Broken
 
F&T stock pitch report- Talk Talk
F&T stock pitch report- Talk TalkF&T stock pitch report- Talk Talk
F&T stock pitch report- Talk Talk
 
CMOST Study
CMOST StudyCMOST Study
CMOST Study
 
Quarterly Statistics on Media, Mobile, Social Media and Advertising
Quarterly Statistics on Media, Mobile, Social Media and AdvertisingQuarterly Statistics on Media, Mobile, Social Media and Advertising
Quarterly Statistics on Media, Mobile, Social Media and Advertising
 
Media Maven: Ad Outlook March 2012
Media Maven: Ad Outlook March 2012Media Maven: Ad Outlook March 2012
Media Maven: Ad Outlook March 2012
 

Viewers also liked

Revising your work presentation
 Revising your work presentation Revising your work presentation
Revising your work presentation
IdiomaModern2
 
Credit reform
Credit reformCredit reform
Credit reform
Paripoorna Choukimath
 
THE INFLUENCE OF MICROSTRUCTURE IN THE HOMOGENEITY OF HARDNESS STANDARD BLOCKS
THE INFLUENCE OF MICROSTRUCTURE IN THE HOMOGENEITY OF HARDNESS STANDARD BLOCKSTHE INFLUENCE OF MICROSTRUCTURE IN THE HOMOGENEITY OF HARDNESS STANDARD BLOCKS
THE INFLUENCE OF MICROSTRUCTURE IN THE HOMOGENEITY OF HARDNESS STANDARD BLOCKS
Tito Livio M. Cardoso
 
Plan de mejora miguel grau miluskarivas (1).1
Plan de mejora miguel grau miluskarivas (1).1Plan de mejora miguel grau miluskarivas (1).1
Plan de mejora miguel grau miluskarivas (1).1
miluska aurora rivas huertas
 
Fasciculo general gestion de aprendizajes
Fasciculo general gestion de aprendizajesFasciculo general gestion de aprendizajes
Fasciculo general gestion de aprendizajes
miluska aurora rivas huertas
 
Tarea 2
Tarea 2Tarea 2
O Mercado Brasileiro de Fornecedores de Insertos de Corte Intercambiáveis
O Mercado Brasileiro de Fornecedores de Insertos de Corte IntercambiáveisO Mercado Brasileiro de Fornecedores de Insertos de Corte Intercambiáveis
O Mercado Brasileiro de Fornecedores de Insertos de Corte Intercambiáveis
Tito Livio M. Cardoso
 
Apresentacao lab
Apresentacao labApresentacao lab
Apresentacao lab
Suzana Reis
 
Grupo deysi
Grupo deysiGrupo deysi
Company Profile Setel_Eng
Company Profile Setel_EngCompany Profile Setel_Eng
Company Profile Setel_Eng
Giuseppe Frullo
 
Laptop xosecundariamanualtortugarte.firme 01
Laptop xosecundariamanualtortugarte.firme 01Laptop xosecundariamanualtortugarte.firme 01
Laptop xosecundariamanualtortugarte.firme 01
miluska aurora rivas huertas
 
Mensajeria chat empathy_03.odt
Mensajeria chat empathy_03.odtMensajeria chat empathy_03.odt
Mensajeria chat empathy_03.odt
miluska aurora rivas huertas
 
Astrological Gem Analysis
Astrological Gem AnalysisAstrological Gem Analysis
Astrological Gem Analysis
divinegemsandstone
 
Banco de recursos educativos 2
Banco de recursos educativos 2Banco de recursos educativos 2
Banco de recursos educativos 2
miluska aurora rivas huertas
 
опыт работы учителя литературы
опыт работы учителя литературыопыт работы учителя литературы
опыт работы учителя литературы
hivrich17
 

Viewers also liked (16)

Revising your work presentation
 Revising your work presentation Revising your work presentation
Revising your work presentation
 
Credit reform
Credit reformCredit reform
Credit reform
 
THE INFLUENCE OF MICROSTRUCTURE IN THE HOMOGENEITY OF HARDNESS STANDARD BLOCKS
THE INFLUENCE OF MICROSTRUCTURE IN THE HOMOGENEITY OF HARDNESS STANDARD BLOCKSTHE INFLUENCE OF MICROSTRUCTURE IN THE HOMOGENEITY OF HARDNESS STANDARD BLOCKS
THE INFLUENCE OF MICROSTRUCTURE IN THE HOMOGENEITY OF HARDNESS STANDARD BLOCKS
 
Plan de mejora miguel grau miluskarivas (1).1
Plan de mejora miguel grau miluskarivas (1).1Plan de mejora miguel grau miluskarivas (1).1
Plan de mejora miguel grau miluskarivas (1).1
 
Fasciculo general gestion de aprendizajes
Fasciculo general gestion de aprendizajesFasciculo general gestion de aprendizajes
Fasciculo general gestion de aprendizajes
 
preporuka GEPARDVIS
preporuka GEPARDVISpreporuka GEPARDVIS
preporuka GEPARDVIS
 
Tarea 2
Tarea 2Tarea 2
Tarea 2
 
O Mercado Brasileiro de Fornecedores de Insertos de Corte Intercambiáveis
O Mercado Brasileiro de Fornecedores de Insertos de Corte IntercambiáveisO Mercado Brasileiro de Fornecedores de Insertos de Corte Intercambiáveis
O Mercado Brasileiro de Fornecedores de Insertos de Corte Intercambiáveis
 
Apresentacao lab
Apresentacao labApresentacao lab
Apresentacao lab
 
Grupo deysi
Grupo deysiGrupo deysi
Grupo deysi
 
Company Profile Setel_Eng
Company Profile Setel_EngCompany Profile Setel_Eng
Company Profile Setel_Eng
 
Laptop xosecundariamanualtortugarte.firme 01
Laptop xosecundariamanualtortugarte.firme 01Laptop xosecundariamanualtortugarte.firme 01
Laptop xosecundariamanualtortugarte.firme 01
 
Mensajeria chat empathy_03.odt
Mensajeria chat empathy_03.odtMensajeria chat empathy_03.odt
Mensajeria chat empathy_03.odt
 
Astrological Gem Analysis
Astrological Gem AnalysisAstrological Gem Analysis
Astrological Gem Analysis
 
Banco de recursos educativos 2
Banco de recursos educativos 2Banco de recursos educativos 2
Banco de recursos educativos 2
 
опыт работы учителя литературы
опыт работы учителя литературыопыт работы учителя литературы
опыт работы учителя литературы
 

Similar to Nihar Patel - Viacom Report

General information Viacom, Inc. is an American media .docx
General information         Viacom, Inc. is an American media .docxGeneral information         Viacom, Inc. is an American media .docx
General information Viacom, Inc. is an American media .docx
hanneloremccaffery
 
MediaEntertainmentNovemberVF.pdf
MediaEntertainmentNovemberVF.pdfMediaEntertainmentNovemberVF.pdf
MediaEntertainmentNovemberVF.pdf
SamShiah1
 
Stateofonlinevideoglencarusotremormedia 12562191614714 Phpapp03
Stateofonlinevideoglencarusotremormedia 12562191614714 Phpapp03Stateofonlinevideoglencarusotremormedia 12562191614714 Phpapp03
Stateofonlinevideoglencarusotremormedia 12562191614714 Phpapp03
RON GOODMAN
 
State Of Online Video - TIMA presentation
State Of Online Video  - TIMA presentationState Of Online Video  - TIMA presentation
State Of Online Video - TIMA presentation
Louise_Gordon
 
Brandweek.1.09
Brandweek.1.09Brandweek.1.09
Brandweek.1.09
Matt Gentile
 
Viacom Case
Viacom CaseViacom Case
Viacom Case
mangalashubha
 
Creative Media BTEC- Unit 7 – The Media Sector (Television)
Creative Media BTEC- Unit 7 – The Media Sector (Television)Creative Media BTEC- Unit 7 – The Media Sector (Television)
Creative Media BTEC- Unit 7 – The Media Sector (Television)
Brandon Boyd
 
mm2 20160628 mb - unrated, the upstart
mm2 20160628 mb - unrated, the upstartmm2 20160628 mb - unrated, the upstart
mm2 20160628 mb - unrated, the upstart
Simeon Ang
 
So You Want to be in Pictures - Product placement: Impact, types and how-to
So You Want to be in Pictures - Product placement:  Impact, types and how-toSo You Want to be in Pictures - Product placement:  Impact, types and how-to
So You Want to be in Pictures - Product placement: Impact, types and how-to
mmcfann
 
Pivotal Research: US TV Update April 2012
Pivotal Research: US TV Update April 2012Pivotal Research: US TV Update April 2012
Pivotal Research: US TV Update April 2012
Brian Crotty
 
Korean Film & Broadcasting Content Industry
Korean Film & Broadcasting Content IndustryKorean Film & Broadcasting Content Industry
Korean Film & Broadcasting Content Industry
Jeehyun Moon
 
Pivotal Research Group LLC: Madison and wall 3 30-12
Pivotal Research Group LLC: Madison and wall  3 30-12Pivotal Research Group LLC: Madison and wall  3 30-12
Pivotal Research Group LLC: Madison and wall 3 30-12
Brian Crotty
 
HBO-Finanlize
HBO-FinanlizeHBO-Finanlize
HBO-Finanlize
Tingting Liu
 
Triwar Presentation 06/14
Triwar Presentation 06/14Triwar Presentation 06/14
Triwar Presentation 06/14
Nicole Kruex
 
Wall Street Mastermind Sector Spotlight - Media & Entertainment (September 2023)
Wall Street Mastermind Sector Spotlight - Media & Entertainment (September 2023)Wall Street Mastermind Sector Spotlight - Media & Entertainment (September 2023)
Wall Street Mastermind Sector Spotlight - Media & Entertainment (September 2023)
SamShiah1
 
Stifel Internet Research Overview
Stifel Internet Research OverviewStifel Internet Research Overview
Stifel Internet Research Overview
Scott Devitt
 
Youtube marketing options
Youtube marketing optionsYoutube marketing options
Youtube marketing options
CameronMackintosh99
 
Ncm Presentation Slide Share
Ncm Presentation Slide ShareNcm Presentation Slide Share
Ncm Presentation Slide Share
shaneprime
 
Ncm Presentation Slide Share
Ncm Presentation Slide ShareNcm Presentation Slide Share
Ncm Presentation Slide Share
shaneprime
 
Trio Entertainment Pitch Deck
Trio Entertainment Pitch DeckTrio Entertainment Pitch Deck
Trio Entertainment Pitch Deck
Esteban Vollenweider
 

Similar to Nihar Patel - Viacom Report (20)

General information Viacom, Inc. is an American media .docx
General information         Viacom, Inc. is an American media .docxGeneral information         Viacom, Inc. is an American media .docx
General information Viacom, Inc. is an American media .docx
 
MediaEntertainmentNovemberVF.pdf
MediaEntertainmentNovemberVF.pdfMediaEntertainmentNovemberVF.pdf
MediaEntertainmentNovemberVF.pdf
 
Stateofonlinevideoglencarusotremormedia 12562191614714 Phpapp03
Stateofonlinevideoglencarusotremormedia 12562191614714 Phpapp03Stateofonlinevideoglencarusotremormedia 12562191614714 Phpapp03
Stateofonlinevideoglencarusotremormedia 12562191614714 Phpapp03
 
State Of Online Video - TIMA presentation
State Of Online Video  - TIMA presentationState Of Online Video  - TIMA presentation
State Of Online Video - TIMA presentation
 
Brandweek.1.09
Brandweek.1.09Brandweek.1.09
Brandweek.1.09
 
Viacom Case
Viacom CaseViacom Case
Viacom Case
 
Creative Media BTEC- Unit 7 – The Media Sector (Television)
Creative Media BTEC- Unit 7 – The Media Sector (Television)Creative Media BTEC- Unit 7 – The Media Sector (Television)
Creative Media BTEC- Unit 7 – The Media Sector (Television)
 
mm2 20160628 mb - unrated, the upstart
mm2 20160628 mb - unrated, the upstartmm2 20160628 mb - unrated, the upstart
mm2 20160628 mb - unrated, the upstart
 
So You Want to be in Pictures - Product placement: Impact, types and how-to
So You Want to be in Pictures - Product placement:  Impact, types and how-toSo You Want to be in Pictures - Product placement:  Impact, types and how-to
So You Want to be in Pictures - Product placement: Impact, types and how-to
 
Pivotal Research: US TV Update April 2012
Pivotal Research: US TV Update April 2012Pivotal Research: US TV Update April 2012
Pivotal Research: US TV Update April 2012
 
Korean Film & Broadcasting Content Industry
Korean Film & Broadcasting Content IndustryKorean Film & Broadcasting Content Industry
Korean Film & Broadcasting Content Industry
 
Pivotal Research Group LLC: Madison and wall 3 30-12
Pivotal Research Group LLC: Madison and wall  3 30-12Pivotal Research Group LLC: Madison and wall  3 30-12
Pivotal Research Group LLC: Madison and wall 3 30-12
 
HBO-Finanlize
HBO-FinanlizeHBO-Finanlize
HBO-Finanlize
 
Triwar Presentation 06/14
Triwar Presentation 06/14Triwar Presentation 06/14
Triwar Presentation 06/14
 
Wall Street Mastermind Sector Spotlight - Media & Entertainment (September 2023)
Wall Street Mastermind Sector Spotlight - Media & Entertainment (September 2023)Wall Street Mastermind Sector Spotlight - Media & Entertainment (September 2023)
Wall Street Mastermind Sector Spotlight - Media & Entertainment (September 2023)
 
Stifel Internet Research Overview
Stifel Internet Research OverviewStifel Internet Research Overview
Stifel Internet Research Overview
 
Youtube marketing options
Youtube marketing optionsYoutube marketing options
Youtube marketing options
 
Ncm Presentation Slide Share
Ncm Presentation Slide ShareNcm Presentation Slide Share
Ncm Presentation Slide Share
 
Ncm Presentation Slide Share
Ncm Presentation Slide ShareNcm Presentation Slide Share
Ncm Presentation Slide Share
 
Trio Entertainment Pitch Deck
Trio Entertainment Pitch DeckTrio Entertainment Pitch Deck
Trio Entertainment Pitch Deck
 

Nihar Patel - Viacom Report

  • 1. Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. The Henry Fund Henry B. Tippie School of Management Nihar Patel [nihar-patel@uiowa.edu] Viacom Inc., Class B (VIAB) November 18, 2016 Consumer Discretionary – Media & Entertainment Stock Rating Buy Investment Thesis Target Price $49-53 The media and entertainment industry is undergoing a change as more content moves to online platforms. Viacom operates in two segments Media Networks, which includes most traditional television, and Filmed Entertainment, which includes movies. The company recently had a rough CEO change and a few failed films that has hurt revenues. The company has two share classes, Class A and Class B. Class A is voting and that is the only difference. 80% of the voting Class A shares is controlled by one company that is owned by one family. CBS is also contemplating a merger, and it has the same structure and majority owner as Viacom. Investment Positives  The recent trouble in the company has led to the stock being sold off than its fundamentals would suggest. Between the messy CEO replacement, weak performance at the box office, and one family’s control of the company there have been many headwinds.  A merger with CBS could produce a leaner company with a larger content library. That may create the capacity to launch its own online platform, which is critical if the company intends to stay relevant into the future.  The company’s strategic plan is to go back to integrating its two lines of business as it used to do. The goal is to create movies that drive television views, and use television to bring people to the movies. This could bring filmed entertainment back to normal, which would be a major boost for the company’s returns.  In the DCF model, we have used conservative assumptions as needed, and there is still plenty of upside in the stock. However, the uncertainty inherent in the business can change the story very fast. Investment Negatives  The Redstone family continues to control the company. The CEO debacle is not the first controversy that has been caused by the concentration of voting shares.  Traditional television is in a decline with the shift to streaming, and this segment still makes up most of Viacom’s revenue. The company does not currently have a fast-growing alternative that could replace this revenue segment. Henry Fund DCF $52.68 Henry Fund DDM $43.64 Relative PE (EPS17) $51.52 Price Data Current Price $37.77 52wk Range $30.11-52.95 Consensus 1yr Target $42.59 Key Statistics Market Cap (B) $15.15 Shares Outstanding (M) 397 Institutional Ownership 90.70% Three Year Beta (weekly) 1.4000 Dividend Yield 2.1% Est. 5yr Growth 4.5% Price/Earnings (TTM) 10.67 Price/Earnings (FY1) 9.9 Price/Book (mrq) 3.5 Profitability Operating Margin 21.88% Profit Margin 11.50% Return on Assets (TTM) 6.42% Return on Equity (TTM) 36.75% Earnings Estimates Year 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E EPS $5.77 $4.83 $3.62 $4.56 $4.74 $4.78 Growth 8.29% -16.36% -24.97% 26.00% 3.86% 0.47% 12 Month Performance Company Description Viacom Inc. is a media and entertainment company that operates television channels, produces content across all kinds of media, and distributes films. Revenue is generated through two segments media networks and filmed entertainment. The company operates numerous brands and owns many franchises. More than some of its peers it relies more on marketing and sees itself as a marketing firm 10.7 6.4 36.7 17.8 10.4 20.3 15.8 6.9 18.618.12 6 20 0 25 50 P/E ROA ROE VIAB DIS TWX FOXA Data Source: FactSet -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% N D J F M A M J J A S O VIAB S&P 500 TR Data Source: Factset
  • 2. Page 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Our recommendation on Viacom Inc. is a buy. The company has faced some recent trials with a few film productions doing poorly and a messy split with its former CEO. The distraction for management is done and the company can focus on creating broad content offerings that will sustain it into the future. We have taken conservative assumptions in valuing the company, and still see significant upside. There is no indication that the company’s operations are in a sustained downward trend. The decline in the share price has been an overreaction. There are lots of unknowns when it comes to media companies. They make their money through advertising, affiliates, and customer purchases. All the revenue boils down to a product that people want to watch. There is no way to know if a production will be successful, but all the costs are borne upfront. This makes their results open to significant volatility. However, media tends to be a bit more defensive than other industries. People tend to stay home and consume content when times are hard, because a movie or TV is cheaper than traveling or other expensive hobbies. Traditional television faces significant pressure, but it is still surviving. The key thing to look for into the future is Viacom developing a strong strategy to content with the disruptive effect of the move to streaming. Other than that, we are not projecting any major changes to the business. Competition is fierce, but nothing can be done about that. Producing better content is the key to success, and the audiences will judge. Two good movies from two different companies will both make money. With DVR and on- demand even television is no longer restricted by time. In the past ratings meant something, but since people can record their shows that matters less now. The case for Viacom being a buy is a simple one. Even with little expected growth in media networks and a return to normal in filmed entertainment, the DCF model is showing a buy. The market may have reacted too negatively to the company’s recent travails. COMPANY DESCRIPTION Viacom is a global media company that owns and operates numerous television channels, produces films, and a range of other content. The two primary segments of the business are media networks and filmed entertainment. Under media networks, Viacom owns brands like BET, MTV, Nickelodeon, Spike, TV Land, and many others.1 Under the filmed entertainment segment brands such as Paramount and the film version of the network brands. These are well recognized brands in media. Media segments is the far larger segment, but probably the one under the greatest threat. The rise of cord-cutting and streaming has disrupted the television industry, and the movie industry is tough to dominate for a variety of reasons. Some of Viacom’s Brands: Source: Viacom Brands The segments bury a significant truth about Viacom. It is not a media company that seeks to sell its media products. 78.88% 21.12% Viacom Revenue Breakdown 2016 Media Networks Filmed Entertainment Source: Viacom's 10-k 2016
  • 3. Page 3 It generates much of its revenue from advertising not from simply selling its content. While this is always true for most television content, it is also true for films in Viacom’s case. Media Networks Media networks are driven almost entirely by advertising revenue. This makes the segment very cyclical and extremely competitive. There is some value to generating content and selling it via physical media or online, but this is dwarfed by advertising revenue. Media networks generate revenue by attracting advertisers due to the number of people watching their content. However, the other major part of media network revenues is affiliate fees.2 These are the cut of cable fees when people subscribe to the channels, like getting the Comedy Central or Nickelodeon package. Predicting the advertising spend cycle is very difficult. Media exhibit some defensive characteristics due to people staying at home more. Therefore, it is best to pick a modest trend and continue this, rather than trying to guess at when spending will be high and low. However, when advertising spend decreases due to companies having cash flow issues such as in 2008 it can lead to cutbacks. Another aspect of the advertising business is the product placement that happens in all media. Usually these spots are used to offset production costs in new shows, and to bring in revenue with popular shows. Recently the main issue has been the decline in cable television. Cable has not disappeared and is still a major industry, but it is in a secular decline.3 Viacom has yet to leverage online platforms to their full potential, but it is not too late for this shift to occur. Filmed Entertainment Filmed entertainment is even more volatile. It is cyclical, but by its very nature it is also more volatile. Films are deficit financed like television shows, but unlike running a television channel there are not reruns or one-offs to fill the schedule. Film are large projects whose production is financed entirely before the first revenue dollar even comes in. Then there is the additional expense of marketing the films. Filmed entertainment includes distribution and production with variations within those categories. Many of the films are co-productions with other studios, or Paramount is simply the distributor. Upfront, high costs make this an industry where companies spread as much risk as possible. In theaters, there is not as much incentive to compete. Rather having different release schedules or targeting different types of audiences during the same day. The money in movies at Viacom is not as high as some other names. Disney for example makes a lot of money from ticket sales, but in the whole year Viacom made less than a billion dollars. Prior years are not broken down, but revenue has never been that high considering the number of movies. This is probably due to its role as distributor and a co-producer, but it also employs a different strategy. 48.37% 45.83% 5.80% Media Networks Breakdown 2016 Advertising Affiliate Ancillary Source: Viacom's 10-k 2016 22.73% 29.41% 41.32% 6.54% Filmed Entertainment Breakdown 2016 Theatrical Home Entertainment Television License Fees Ancillary Source: Viacom's 10-k 2016
  • 4. Page 4 Disney currently uses its outside film offerings to drive people to their movies. While the shows on Netflix and television provide some revenue, it is the mega- blockbusters that Marvel churns out that generate money. Disney’s animated features somewhat support its television offerings, but Viacom leverages the ecosystem far more.4 It has consistently made movies that target children, then release related shows to drive viewership. The Madagascar series spawned a television show on Nickelodeon, which later spawned a movie. It is that targeting that makes Viacom different from other film companies. It targets a segment to build an ecosystem broader than just films, rather than aiming for mass appeal blockbusters. This targeting also gives it a powerful marketing channel for companies trying to reach their audience. Product placement helps offset the costs of production, and can provide some revenue in established franchises. Viacom, via subsidiary Paramount, has often treated its film business as a potential marketing channel. The shifting of targeted audiences from film to television through related media is probably the reason that Viacom has remained healthy despite the decline in network television, however growth has become more difficult. Viacom’s Share Structure Viacom has both A, VIA, and B, VIAB, shares. The sole difference is that the A shares are voting and the B shares are not. Therefore, the A shares trade at a premium. 80% of the voting shares of Viacom are controlled by National Amusements a company controlled by Sumner Redstone and eventually his family trust. Looking at the historical difference between the value of Class A and B the divergence is large. At one point the shares were at parity, and during high volume periods Class B shares have drifted above Class A shares by a few cents. The most common gap has been around $1.25, but recently it has moved to around $3. Since one party controls 80% of voting shares there is not much value to holding the remaining voting shares. Even in the event of a merger with CBS the fairness test will be applied, but minority holders would not be able to vote en masse to block a deal to get a higher price if a court rules the existing terms are fair. The valuation and percentages treat A and B shares the same, but any reasonable adjustment would still place Viacom heavily in buy territory. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Viacom has faced some challenges in the last few years stemming from internal upheaval, and a few missteps in the filmed entertainment division. Fiscal Year 2016 Earnings Viacom just reported their 2016 annual results in November. The company beat on EPS by $0.04 but missed on revenue by $70M.5 The miss was due to losses in the filmed entertainment division. A few projects failed to deliver large returns, and the company expensed some items for an upcoming project that was expected to fail.10 Strategic goals going forward include leveraging technology to improve its advertising. It will also attempt to take its media network brands international and do better with appealing to more markets under its existing brands. Integration between television and film is also sought, and this should really help bring results back to growth. However, the model does not project this, so it would form additional upside. CBS Bid Viacom is currently an acquisition/merger target for CBS. However, this is only in the exploratory phase and nothing has been detailed yet. CBS is another Redstone family controlled entity. It has a dual share structure, one voting and one non-voting, with 80% of the voting shares held by National Amusements. This is more than coincidence. Ten years ago, Viacom and CBS split into two entities, both controlled by National Amusements and Sumner Redstone. With the difficulties facing traditional television National Amusements sent a letter advocating a combination. If this proposed merger moves into the next stage it will take quite a bit of time, and likely not yield much of a premium. Approval will also be slow since the same party controls both entities. This will trigger what is called the entire fairness doctrine as described in Golden Cycle, LLC vs Allen by the Delaware Chancery Court in 1998.6 This doctrine is triggered during a merger or acquisition when a majority stockholder is on both sides of the transaction. This rule is designed to prevent minority shareholder interests. Any deal that will see Viacom and CBS merge will probably see a lawsuit and a court must
  • 5. Page 5 determine the fairness of the transaction in addition to all the other approvals required of takeovers. CBS is facing similar challenges to Viacom, and it may be similarly undervalued. This is not a case of one very healthy company buying a company that has stumbled. For this merger to really benefit shareholders the new company would need to be far stronger than the two separate companies. With Viacom so undervalued it might be worth it to hold onto any shares gained from the transaction. There may be synergies to be leveraged from the combination of content libraries and production facilities. Replacement of Long-Time CEO The CEO of Viacom Phillipe Dauman was replaced in August 20, 2016 after an acrimonious court battle with the head of the company that controls the voting shares of Viacom Sumner Redstone. The crux of the issue was that Dauman believed that Sumner Redstone was no longer capable of making decisions and his daughter Shari was controlling him, which his will indicated was what he did not want. This is just another example of family and personal disputes spilling into the public sphere due to the tight control of voting shares by one family. If this situation with control were ever to change, it would be a major boost to the company. Since that family controls 80% of the voting shares the escapades of the Redstone’s have frequently become an issue hanging over the head of Viacom. Headlines aside this has always been the case, but if Viacom’s ownership structure ever changed it would be a positive. This drama at the top has created an opportunity in the stock. Dauman was also one of the highest paid CEOs in America with about $85M on average between 2011-2015.7 His replacement will not be paid as much, so there are some savings to be had there. INDUSTRY TRENDS The media industry by its very nature is on the forefront of technology, culture, and globalization. There are many sweeping changes facing the industry. Some are recent, and some have been going on for some time now. Shift to Streaming In the last few years streaming has taken off as the primary way for people to consume their content. This is especially true for the young, which will define the future for many more years to come. Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, and iTunes have changed the field, but those have been picking away at television’s base for many years. These companies have also turned to generating their own content, competing with traditional media more directly. The television channels have tried to stem this tide. Companies like Sling TV try to blur the line between television and Internet streaming by bringing traditional television streaming through the web. However, the offerings, features, and cost of these programs leaves much to be desired. Very little of the shift is driven by cable versus the Internet, and their strategies seem to be missing the point. The shift is driven by immediate consumption without interruption for a reasonable price. Cable costs too much, and more and more people are cutting the cord, but that does not mean they are moving to Sling TV. They are moving to on-demand streaming, not just streaming. This trend is the biggest threat the media network revenues, which is the largest group of revenues. There is some exposure in the filmed entertainment segment due to a decrease in licensing fees for television movies, but this can be made up with licenses with streaming companies. Media networks on the other hand is driven by advertising and that is dependent on the number of people. Licensing fees currently would not offset this decline. The audience for television is shrinking. Movies are still big draws and box offices have continued to grow, but on the small screen everything is moving online. Global Markets Movies have become very expensive to produce, though Viacom does not do many of these. This expense has
  • 6. Page 6 caused international markets to become very important to the viability of movies.8 In the past doing well in the US box office was enough. Now it is not enough. That means that movies should have broad appeal to many types of audiences. Some of the recent movies released by Paramount have struggled. This could be due to their narrow focus on mostly the domestic market, but it is competing against major franchises with broad appeal and an established fan base. Viacom has not created many franchises other than a few children’s movies. Its role as a distributor also means it comes in far later in the production cycle. It also creates increased competition as there are many global distributors, and simply focusing on the American market is not as lucrative as it once was. MARKETS AND COMPETITION The media industry is completely fragmented with players of all sizes and partnerships that form and dissolve on a regular basis. Two companies working on the same production may have projects that directly compete later. There are tiny independent studios, some of which form for one project, and there are mega studios like Marvel that produce numerous movies. Early in the cycle of the Marvel movies Paramount was a distributor, before Disney took over. On the film and media production side the industry is full of players. The television channels do compete in a more traditional way. Channels compete against one another to grab the most viewers in the target demographic. Broadcast television tries to capture the broadest audience, while network TV can be more specific. Competition The competition in this industry across all the segments is very simple. Attract the most people to your product. This is done by producing quality material, making it readily available, and marketing it well. With movies, the goal is to sell tickets, DVDs, licenses, and merchandise. When done well a franchise can be created that has numerous media products and potentially other entertainment products to perpetuate the concept into the future. An ideal situation would be obtaining a place in the minds of the public with a franchise. A recognizable and beloved idea can always be relied on to generate revenue to the extent that care is taken. Despite the negative reviews Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles remains a profitable franchise, eventually more movies well be made. The upcoming Power Rangers movie is based on a show that is going on 25 years, and if successful will likely revitalize the television business. Television is about attracting viewers to increase revenue from advertising. Slots are sold to advertisers. Lots of viewers for a show generates a lot of ad revenue. A show with very strong demographic numbers can attract valuable targeted advertising dollars, which are more per viewer. This is the most well-known form of revenue for television channels. The other source is affiliate payments, which are primarily for network television. When a cable subscriber has a channel in their plan that channel gets a payment. This varies based on whether the channel is a common offering, a premium channel, etc. All the companies are competing for the interest of the population. Competition is very high and fierce, but success depends on quality. A slick marketing campaign can get viewers onto a new show, but it cannot save a terrible show. Source: www.the-numbers.com/market/distributor/paramount- pictures Year Movies Market Share Gross 1995 21 9.97% 529,884,404.00$ 1996 24 12.80% 740,924,146.00$ 1997 27 13.99% 889,415,108.00$ 1998 19 15.46% 1,046,011,656.00$ 1999 21 11.56% 848,754,297.00$ 2000 19 10.42% 785,491,260.00$ 2001 18 11.02% 914,413,744.00$ 2002 25 7.35% 673,939,881.00$ 2003 23 7.11% 653,849,399.00$ 2004 18 6.73% 624,885,940.00$ 2005 17 9.32% 821,959,361.00$ 2006 19 10.30% 947,010,659.00$ 2007 21 15.38% 1,502,551,245.00$ 2008 17 16.38% 1,602,712,839.00$ 2009 16 13.72% 1,460,075,602.00$ 2010 18 16.44% 1,727,156,249.00$ 2011 23 19.31% 1,966,886,567.00$ 2012 22 8.47% 933,803,997.00$ 2013 15 9.01% 981,549,932.00$ 2014 17 9.92% 1,027,851,276.00$ 2015 17 6.17% 697,086,594.00$ 2016 14 6.93% 655,775,020.00$ Year by Year Market Share
  • 7. Page 7 Peer Comparisons It is important when doing peer comparisons to keep the stuff above in mind. So much of a company’s success is dependent on creative matters, and the ability to execute on a good idea. Capital constraints are why these companies make deals with each other. Spreading the risk is safer than going it alone in all cases, especially when upfront costs get large. While television stations still compete with one another, DVR and streaming means that quality always wins out. There is a lot of market to be had. People are consuming more and more content, and there is no brand loyalty. People will watch everything they enjoy. Debt and Liquidity Long-Term Debt ($M) Current Ratio Quick Ratio Viacom 11,913 1.23 1.00 Time Warner 24,471 1.76 1.51 Disney 16,674 0.91 0.83 Discovery 7,926 1.76 1.76 21st Century Fox 19,488 2.01 1.57 Source: Factset Liquidity is not a risk for Viacom. These media companies do not have high CapEx or other expenses. Most costs are associated with producing the content. These expenses are high risk, since they are upfront in their entirety. Disney is a bit different because it is a conglomerate with many kinds of businesses. Margins Net Margins Operating Margins PE Viacom 11.5% 21.9% 10.69 Time Warner 15.6% 25.8% 15.84 Disney 16.6% 25.7% 17.76 Discovery 17.1% 32.4% 15.46 21st Century Fox 10.5% 22.5% 18.12 Source: Factset Margins for these companies vary greatly due to the nature of their business. Viacom’s margins have been hurt by the recent weakness in its filmed entertainment business. From the PE ratio, we can see how the recent events at Viacom have impacted the share price relative to its peers. While Viacom has experienced some weakness, it has not seen a very dramatic decrease in EPS. Returns and Free Cash ROA ROE Free Cash Margin Viacom 6.4% 36.7% 9.6% Time Warner 6.9% 18.6% 13.8% Disney 10.4% 20.3% 14.1% Discovery 7.0% 20.4% 22.3% 21st Century Fox 6.0% 20.0% 14.6% Source: Factset Viacom’s cash flows have suffered recently. A few years ago, the company authorized a $20Bn repurchase plan, and it made use of this to buy back shares this last year. This has boosted its ROE. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK The media industry shows some defensive characteristics, because when the economy is weak people stay in and watch TV or stream movies. While plenty of people complain about the price of movie tickets it is cheaper than a trip. The real issue is when corporate earnings weaken and they cut down on advertising spending. Usually this leads to declines in revenue not the absence of them. Television always has commercials. We expect the economy to remain strong in the next few years. Box offices have continued to grow. The companies are breaking into more markets. For English language content the market is becoming much more global. While the market will continue to expand that just means more companies can come in to fill the demand. Even with large amounts of capital doing too many productions at once poses serious risk. Directors, actors, editors, post- production specialists, and other professionals are not endless. There is also limited time, and there is little incentive to compete head to head on every occasion. So, there are no specific macroeconomic issues that should be of concern. The recent low debt environment has allowed firms to take on debt to finance more product themselves, because they will accrue more of the benefit. However, the low rate environment created this demand. For Viacom, which does not run a cable service just channels, it does not need to rely on debt in the future for CapEx. One of the bigger drivers will be increasing wealth in emerging markets, which would open more markets and expand existing ones.
  • 8. Page 8 VALUATION Revenue Growth Revenues are extremely unpredictable in this industry. While there are certain predictable revenues from the media networks business the filmed entertainment branch is subject to the market’s reaction to the product. Estimates can be made on sequels and related movies, but brand new movies are inherently unpredictable. When it comes to modeling the growth rates, we chose to use analyst averages and adjusted them downward. As this is not a current holding we feel this cautious approach will yield the clearest signal. Media networks are projected to grow at 1.5% next year, right around inflation levels, and move down to 0.5%. Verizon’s Revenue Growth 2014 -0.08% 2015 -3.74% 2016 -5.88% Source: Viacom 2016 10-K Filmed entertainment is trickier. The last few years has seen revenue decline due to a variety of factors. Some are due to missteps, and some are due to the former CEO Dauman’s plans for the movie segment. Viacom got involved in some high-quality projects such as The Big Short and Interstellar before that. These films just tend to be outside their normal space. Children’s movies push viewers to their media network properties, and generate follow-up short films, DVDs, and licensed products. While Interstellar and The Big Short were high quality pictures they had niche audiences and were not something Viacom could continue to leverage. They were only distributor, but they could easily make a partnership to do more. In addition to that subtle shift a few of the recent movies did not bring in much revenue. The segment has seen a decline from over $4bn a few years ago, to between $2-3bn now. We project the revenue next year will grow 7%, simply to bring them into line with the company’s size and general performance. It remains conservative relative to analysts. The effect of these growth numbers boils down to 2012 and 2021, the end of our forecast, having revenues that are very close $13,887M and $13,923M respectively. This is one of the reasons we are confident in our buy recommendation, though not necessarily the exact price. Cost of Goods Sold This is extremely difficult to estimate for most things. Production costs are upfront and fixed once done. A major blockbuster does not cost more due to being a major blockbuster, after the fact. The expectation of major success can increase spending, but this is not guaranteed. If a production cost $100M, then the cost of goods sold changes based on whether it makes $50M or $300M. Each production is different, and the success of one does not affect another. The same is true of television. The success of an MTV show does not determine the success of a Nickelodeon show. For reference, when filmed entertainment did well and generated profits for the company COGS as a percentage of revenue was 17.87%. In 2015 that number was 51.76%, and in 2016 it was 53.52%. Erring on the side of caution again we chose 52% for COGS, which gives tremendous opportunity if the next few films do well. Selling, General, and Administrative Expense SG&A expense does not vary much from year to year. We fix ours at the high end of the small range at 23% and move that up to 23.50% later in forecast due to the eventual online push the company will make. -25.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Revenue Growth Rates Media Networks Filmed Entertainment Total Revenue Growth Source of Historical Data: Viacom 10-k 2016, 2015, 2014
  • 9. Page 9 Other There are no significant CapEx assumptions, nor other major cost assumptions. We keep the same debt structure anticipating that the recent missteps will push reducing debt off into the future. We do not project any buybacks beyond the $4.9B currently left on their authorization.9 Continuing Growth Assumptions We assume that the company continues growing at 1%, which is below expected inflation. This is due to increased competition since barriers to entry are even lower on the Internet. Then there is the long-term decline in television. The cautiousness of the assumption also gives strength to the buy recommendation. Alternative Valuation Relative PE gives a valuation of $51.42 and the dividend discount model gives a price of $43.94. You can adjust these for the class B shares, the recent year has seen a premium of over $4 for the class A shares over the B. However, historically this premium has shrunk down to $1 or $2 or disappeared altogether. Since the largest shareholder controls 80% of the voting shares there is no reason to give those shares a premium. Even owning all of them would not give significant power to affect the direction of the company. Both valuation methods confirm the buy rating. This can change to a hold with upside depending on the premium knocked off for nonvoting shares, but if there is upside after all that it makes the recommendation a safe one. Implied Value: Relative P/E (EPS17) $ 51.42 Relative P/E (EPS18) $ 61.02 PEG Ratio (EPS17) $ 20.50 PEG Ratio (EPS18) $ 24.38 Data for Estimates: FactSet For Verizon, the DCF or the dividend discount model can be used. The issue with the dividend discount model is the same as the one with the relative PE. There is too much reliance on the calculated EPS numbers in the model. Compared to analysts, the model’s EPS numbers are far lower, despite having higher revenues. Relative PE has a problem with outliers like US Cellular with a 2016 PE estimate of 76.6. Compared to AT&T, similar size and business, and Comcast, similar size, Verizon is more fairly valued in relative terms. KEYS TO MONITOR An eye needs to be kept on media network revenue. Significant declines would change the recommendation. A decline is factored into the recommendation, but not very fast decline. Also, if Viacom does not come up with an online strategy or platform it would endanger its viability in the future and the recommendation would change. More missteps in filmed entertainment would bring into question the effectiveness of management even if they were not enough to really change the model. There is also the issue of family control. If more personality issues affect the business it might be better to sit out Viacom. The details of the CBS merger will also be important going forward. If CBS acquires Viacom and there is a solid premium it might be worth selling the stock to take the benefit. Viacom and CBS are struggling with the changes in their industry so it might be better to avoid them for now. REFERENCES 1. Viacom Brands - http://www.viacom.com/brands/pages/default.aspx 2. Viacom Affiliate Fees - http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Viacom_(VIA)/Affili ate_Fees 3. Traditional TV just got bashed by an influential expert - Business Insider - http://www.businessinsider.com/traditional-tv-is-in- decline-2015-8 4. Viacom Is a Buy: It's Cheap and The Market Misunderstands Its Business - SeekingAlpha - http://seekingalpha.com/article/4007614-viacom- buy-cheap-market-misunderstands-business 5. 4Q2016 Earnings Call Transcript - SeekingAlpha - http://seekingalpha.com/article/4021668-viacoms- viab-ceo-tom-dooley-q4-2016-results-earnings-call- transcript 6. GOLDEN CYCLE, LLC V. ALLEN, 16301 (DEL.CH. 1998) - Case Text - https://casetext.com/case/golden-cycle- llc-v-allen
  • 10. Page 10 7. Viacom CEO paid more than you think: Expert - CNBC - http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/09/viacom-ceo- paid-more-than-you-think-expert.html 8. 2016 Entertainment & Media Industry Trends - PwC - http://www.strategyand.pwc.com/perspectives/2016 -entertainment-media-industry-trends 9. Viacom 2016 10-k - http://ir.viacom.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1339947- 16-110&CIK=1339947 10. ‘Monster Trucks’ Drove Viacom’s $115M Charge Even Before Its Release – Deadline Hollywood - http://deadline.com/2016/09/monster-trucks-drove- viacom-115m-charge-before-release-1201824353/ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Henry Fund reports are created by student enrolled in the Applied Securities Management (Henry Fund) program at the University of Iowa’s Tippie School of Management. These reports are intended to provide potential employers and other interested parties an example of the analytical skills, investment knowledge, and communication abilities of Henry Fund students. Henry Fund analysts are not registered investment advisors, brokers or officially licensed financial professionals. The investment opinion contained in this report does not represent an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of the aforementioned securities. Unless otherwise noted, facts and figures included in this report are from publicly available sources. This report is not a complete compilation of data, and its accuracy is not guaranteed. From time to time, the University of Iowa, its faculty, staff, students, or the Henry Fund may hold a financial interest in the companies mentioned in this report.
  • 11. Viacom Inc Revenue Decomposition Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Media Networks 9,656 10,171 10,490 9,942 10,041.42 10,141.83 10,217.90 10,294.53 10,346.00 Filmed Entertainment 4,282 3,725 2,883 2,662 2,848.34 2,990.76 3,110.39 3,359.22 3,577.57 Eliminations -144 -113 -105 -116 - - - - - Total 13,794.00 13,783.00 13,268.00 12,488.00 12,889.76 13,132.59 13,328.29 13,653.75 13,923.57 Media Networks 5.03% 5.33% 3.14% -5.22% 1.00% 1.00% 0.75% 0.75% 0.50% Filmed Entertainment -11.16% -13.01% -22.60% -7.67% 7.00% 5.00% 4.00% 8.00% 6.50% Eliminations 13.39% -21.53% -7.08% 10.48% Total -0.67% -0.08% -3.74% -5.88% 3.22% 1.88% 1.49% 2.44% 1.98% Media Networks 70.00% 73.79% 79.06% 79.61% 77.90% 77.23% 76.66% 75.40% 74.31% Filmed Entertainment 31.04% 27.03% 21.73% 21.32% 22.10% 22.77% 23.34% 24.60% 25.69% Eliminations -1.04% -0.82% -0.79% -0.93% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
  • 12. Viacom Inc Income Statement Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Income Statement Sales 13,783.00 13,268.00 12,488.00 12,889.76 13,132.59 13,328.29 13,653.75 13,923.57 COGS excluding D&A 2,463.00 6,868.00 6,684.00 6,702.68 6,828.95 6,930.71 7,099.95 7,240.26 Depreciation 177.00 188.00 188.00 185.02 216.56 246.71 276.85 310.72 Amortization of Intangibles 40.00 34.00 33.00 30.57 41.07 53.63 66.20 79.98 Gross Income 11,103.00 6,178.00 5,583.00 5,971.49 6,046.01 6,097.24 6,210.75 6,292.62 SG&A Expense 2,899.00 2,860.00 2,851.00 2,964.64 3,020.50 3,132.15 3,208.63 3,272.04 EBIT (Operating Income) 8,204.00 3,318.00 2,732.00 3,006.84 3,025.51 2,965.09 3,002.12 3,020.58 Nonoperating Income - Net 58.00 66.00 80.00 82.57 84.13 85.38 87.47 89.20 Interest Expense 615.00 657.00 616.00 611.23 623.23 632.43 641.54 653.95 Unusual Expense - Net 54.00 224.00 293.00 - - - - Pretax Income 3,514.00 2,503.00 1,990.00 2,478.18 2,486.42 2,418.04 2,448.04 2,455.83 Income Taxes 1,050.00 501.00 519.00 693.89 696.20 677.05 685.45 687.63 Consolidated Net Income 2,464.00 2,002.00 1,471.00 1,784.29 1,790.22 1,740.99 1,762.59 1,768.20 Minority Interest 72.00 80.00 35.00 42.45 42.60 41.42 41.94 42.07 Net Income 2,392.00 1,922.00 1,436.00 1,741.84 1,747.62 1,699.57 1,720.65 1,726.12 Net Income available to Common 2,391.00 1,922.00 1,438.00 1,741.84 1,747.62 1,699.57 1,720.65 1,726.12 EPS 5.77 4.83 3.62 4.56 4.74 4.76 4.96 5.11 Total Shares Outstanding 414.20 398.10 397.00 381.66 368.69 356.86 346.98 337.88 Dividends per Share 1.26 1.46 1.40 1.44 1.49 1.56 1.64 1.77 Payout Ratio 21.83% 30.24% 38.65% 31.60% 31.33% 32.75% 33.02% 34.62% Div Growth 9.57% 15.87% -4.11% 3.00% 3.00% 5.00% 5.00% 8.00%
  • 13. Viacom Inc Balance Sheet Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Assets Cash & Short-Term Investments 1,000.00 506.00 379.00 (81.90) 671.62 1,471.69 2,204.58 2,286.10 Short-Term Receivables 3,066.00 2,807.00 2,712.00 2,799.25 2,851.98 2,894.48 2,965.16 3,023.76 Inventories 846.00 786.00 844.00 871.15 887.56 900.79 922.79 941.02 Other Current Assets 340.00 559.00 587.00 605.88 617.30 626.50 641.80 654.48 Total Current Assets 5,252.00 4,658.00 4,522.00 4,194.39 5,028.46 5,893.46 6,734.33 6,905.37 Net Property, Plant & Equipment 1,016.00 947.00 932.00 1,090.88 1,242.76 1,394.56 1,565.15 1,735.32 Total Investments and Advances 345.00 434.00 542.00 549.10 547.38 573.87 601.42 630.24 Long-Term Note Receivable 482.00 577.00 547.00 437.60 328.20 218.80 109.40 0.00 Net Goodwill 11,535.00 11,456.00 11,400.00 11,400.00 11,400.00 11,400.00 11,400.00 11,400.00 Net Other Intangibles 399.00 340.00 315.00 423.15 552.52 682.09 824.02 967.07 Deferred Tax Assets 0.00 45.00 43.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other Assets 4,088.00 3,760.00 4,207.00 4,342.35 4,424.15 4,490.08 4,599.72 4,690.62 Total Assets 23,117.00 22,217.00 22,508.00 22,437.46 23,523.48 24,652.87 25,834.05 26,328.62 Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity ST Debt & Curr. Portion LT Debt 18.00 18.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Accounts Payable 475.00 506.00 453.00 467.57 476.38 483.48 495.29 505.08 Other Current Liabilities 3,442.00 3,330.00 3,202.00 3,305.01 3,367.28 3,417.45 3,500.91 3,570.09 Total Current Liabilities 3,935.00 3,854.00 3,672.00 3,772.59 3,843.66 3,900.94 3,996.19 4,075.16 Long-Term Debt 12,751.00 12,267.00 11,896.00 11,820.81 12,052.76 12,230.72 12,406.97 12,646.90 Employee Benefit Obligations 404.00 444.00 504.00 520.21 530.01 537.91 551.05 561.94 Deferred Tax Liabilities 266.00 223.00 381.00 - - - - - Other Liabilities 1,798.00 1,611.00 1,514.00 902.28 787.96 799.70 819.23 835.41 Total Liabilities 19,154.00 18,399.00 17,967.00 17,015.90 17,214.39 17,469.26 17,773.44 18,119.42 Common Equity 9,772.00 10,017.00 10,139.00 10,808.08 11,475.59 12,187.07 12,891.61 12,891.61 Retained Earnings 13,465.00 14,780.00 15,628.00 16,819.48 18,019.50 19,162.54 20,315.00 21,443.59 Cumulative Translation Adjustment/Unrealized For. Exch. Gain (106.00) (341.00) (435.00) (435.00) (435.00) (435.00) (435.00) (435.00) Unrealized Gain/Loss Marketable Securities 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Other Appropriated Reserves (187.00) (193.00) (258.00) (258.00) (258.00) (258.00) (258.00) (258.00) Treasury Stock (19,225.00) (20,725.00) (20,798.00) (21,778.00) (22,758.00) (23,738.00) (24,718.00) (25,698.00) Total Shareholders' Equity 3,719.00 3,538.00 4,277.00 5,157.56 6,045.09 6,919.60 7,796.61 7,945.20 Accumulated Minority Interest 244.00 280.00 264.00 264.00 264.00 264.00 264.00 264.00 Total Equity 3,963.00 3,818.00 4,541.00 5,421.56 6,309.09 7,183.60 8,060.61 8,209.20 Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 23,117.00 22,217.00 22,508.00 22,437.46 23,523.48 24,652.87 25,834.05 26,328.62
  • 14. Viacom Inc Historical Cash Flow Statement Fiscal Years Ending Dec. 31 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 Net Income / Starting Line 1,251.00 1,568.00 864.00 2,109.00 2,385.00 2,464.00 2,002.00 1,471.00 Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 405.00 391.00 222.00 271.00 236.00 217.00 222.00 221.00 Depreciation and Depletion 264.00 -- 161.00 189.00 171.00 177.00 188.00 188.00 Amortization of Intangible Assets 141.00 -- 61.00 82.00 65.00 40.00 34.00 33.00 Deferred Taxes & Investment Tax Credit 14.00 87.00 -119.00 376.00 -87.00 -290.00 -82.00 254.00 Other Funds 5,096.00 3,465.00 3,425.00 4,845.00 4,497.00 4,332.00 4,931.00 4,648.00 Funds from Operations 6,766.00 5,511.00 4,392.00 7,601.00 7,031.00 6,723.00 7,073.00 6,594.00 Changes in Working Capital -4,730.00 -4,360.00 -3,245.00 -4,957.00 -4,533.00 -4,126.00 -4,760.00 -5,223.00 Receivables 279.00 208.00 410.00 -292.00 270.00 -106.00 124.00 149.00 Inventories -4,731.00 -4,048.00 -3,251.00 -4,538.00 -4,492.00 -4,245.00 -4,826.00 -5,102.00 Accounts Payable -278.00 -520.00 -404.00 -127.00 -367.00 252.00 -9.00 -229.00 Other Assets/Liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 56.00 -27.00 -49.00 -41.00 Net Operating Cash Flow 2,036.00 1,151.00 1,147.00 2,644.00 2,498.00 2,597.00 2,313.00 1,371.00 Investing Activities Capital Expenditures -288.00 -141.00 -105.00 -155.00 -154.00 -123.00 -142.00 -172.00 Net Assets from Acquisitions -225.00 0.00 0.00 -- 0.00 0.00 -- -- Sale of Fixed Assets & Businesses 0.00 0.00 0.00 -- -- -- -- -- Purchase/Sale of Investments -71.00 0.00 -63.00 0.00 0.00 -732.00 0.00 0.00 Purchase of Investments 71.00 0.00 63.00 0.00 0.00 732.00 0.00 0.00 Sale/Maturity of Investments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other Funds 13.00 -133.00 0.00 -72.00 -102.00 0.00 -115.00 -127.00 Other Uses 0.00 -133.00 0.00 -72.00 -102.00 0.00 -115.00 -127.00 Other Sources 13.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Investing Cash Flow -571.00 -274.00 -168.00 -227.00 -256.00 -855.00 -257.00 -299.00 Financing Activities Cash Dividends Paid 0.00 0.00 -91.00 -417.00 -554.00 -541.00 -564.00 -635.00 Change in Capital Stock -1,275.00 -7.00 0.00 -2,286.00 -2,541.00 -3,356.00 -1,402.00 -89.00 Repurchase of Common & Preferred Stk. -1,275.00 -8.00 -- -2,450.00 -2,809.00 -3,529.00 -1,548.00 -100.00 Sale of Common & Preferred Stock 0.00 1.00 0.00 164.00 268.00 173.00 146.00 11.00 Change in Long-Term Debt -280.00 -1,368.00 -292.00 629.00 801.00 884.00 -410.00 -368.00 Issuance of Long-Term Debt 2,845.00 5,478.00 -- 1,405.00 2,116.00 1,484.00 990.00 0.00 Reduction in Long-Term Debt -3,125.00 -6,846.00 -292.00 -776.00 -1,315.00 -600.00 -1,400.00 -368.00 Other Funds 0.00 -13.00 -53.00 -153.00 -119.00 -87.00 -101.00 -81.00 Other Uses 0.00 -13.00 -53.00 -166.00 -156.00 -171.00 -144.00 -81.00 Other Sources 0.00 -- 0.00 13.00 37.00 84.00 43.00 0.00 Net Financing Cash Flow -1,555.00 -1,388.00 -436.00 -2,227.00 -2,413.00 -3,100.00 -2,477.00 -1,173.00
  • 15. Viacom Inc Historical Cash Flow Statement Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Operating Activities Net Income / Starting Line 1,741.84 1,747.62 1,699.57 1,720.65 1,726.12 Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 215.60 257.63 300.34 343.05 390.70 Deferred Taxes & Investment Tax Credit -338.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other Funds Receivables -87.25 -52.74 -42.50 -70.68 -58.60 Inventories -27.15 -16.41 -13.23 -22.00 -18.24 Accounts Payable 14.57 8.81 7.10 11.81 9.79 Other Assets/Liabilities -646.72 -135.48 -5.31 -8.83 -7.32 Net Operating Cash Flow 872.89 1,809.44 1,945.97 1,974.01 2,042.46 Investing Activities Capital Expenditures -482.62 -538.89 -581.71 -655.57 -703.91 Acquisitions 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Purchase/Sale Investments 102.30 111.12 82.91 81.85 80.58 Other Sources Net Investing Cash Flow -380.32 -427.77 -498.81 -573.72 -623.33 Financing Activities Cash Dividends Paid -550.36 -547.60 -556.53 -568.18 -597.54 Change in Capital Stock -310.92 -312.50 -268.52 -275.46 -980.00 Issuance/Reduction of Debt, Net -92.19 231.94 177.96 176.26 239.93 Other Funds Other Uses Other Sources Net Financing Cash Flow -953.46 -628.15 -647.09 -667.39 -1,337.61 Net Change in Cash -460.90 753.52 800.07 732.89 81.52
  • 16. Viacom Inc Common Size Income Statement Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Income Statement Sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% COGS excluding D&A 17.87% 51.76% 53.52% 52.00% 52.00% 52.00% 52.00% 52.00% Depreciation 1.28% 1.42% 1.51% 1.44% 1.65% 1.85% 2.03% 2.23% Amortization of Intangibles 0.29% 0.26% 0.26% 0.24% 0.31% 0.40% 0.48% 0.57% Gross Income 80.56% 46.56% 44.71% 46.33% 46.04% 45.75% 45.49% 45.19% SG&A Expense 21.03% 21.56% 22.83% 23.00% 23.00% 23.50% 23.50% 23.50% EBIT (Operating Income) 59.52% 25.01% 21.88% 23.33% 23.04% 22.25% 21.99% 21.69% Nonoperating Income - Net 0.42% 0.50% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64% Interest Expense 4.46% 4.95% 4.93% 4.74% 4.75% 4.75% 4.70% 4.70% Unusual Expense - Net 0.39% 1.69% 2.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Pretax Income 25.50% 18.86% 15.94% 19.23% 18.93% 18.14% 17.93% 17.64% Income Taxes 7.62% 3.78% 4.16% 5.38% 5.30% 5.08% 5.02% 4.94% Consolidated Net Income 17.88% 15.09% 11.78% 13.84% 13.63% 13.06% 12.91% 12.70% Minority Interest 0.52% 0.60% 0.28% 0.33% 0.32% 0.31% 0.31% 0.30% Net Income 17.35% 14.49% 11.50% 13.51% 13.31% 12.75% 12.60% 12.40% Net Income available to Common 17.35% 14.49% 11.52% 13.51% 13.31% 12.75% 12.60% 12.40%
  • 17. Viacom Inc Balance Sheet Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Assets Cash & Short-Term Investments 7.26% 3.81% 3.03% -0.64% 5.11% 11.04% 16.15% 16.42% Short-Term Receivables 22.24% 21.16% 21.72% 21.72% 21.72% 21.72% 21.72% 21.72% Inventories 6.14% 5.92% 6.76% 6.76% 6.76% 6.76% 6.76% 6.76% Other Current Assets 2.47% 4.21% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% Total Current Assets 38.10% 35.11% 36.21% 32.54% 38.29% 44.22% 49.32% 49.59% Net Property, Plant & Equipment 7.37% 7.14% 7.46% 8.46% 9.46% 10.46% 11.46% 12.46% Total Investments and Advances 2.50% 3.27% 4.34% 4.26% 4.17% 4.31% 4.40% 4.53% Long-Term Note Receivable 3.50% 4.35% 4.38% 3.39% 2.50% 1.64% 0.80% 0.00% Net Goodwill 83.69% 86.34% 91.29% 88.44% 86.81% 85.53% 83.49% 81.88% Net Other Intangibles 2.89% 2.56% 2.52% 3.28% 4.21% 5.12% 6.04% 6.95% Other Assets 29.66% 28.34% 33.69% 33.69% 33.69% 33.69% 33.69% 33.69% Total Assets 167.72% 167.45% 180.24% 174.07% 179.12% 184.97% 189.21% 189.09% Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity ST Debt & Curr. Portion LT Debt 0.13% 0.14% 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Accounts Payable 3.45% 3.81% 3.63% 3.63% 3.63% 3.63% 3.63% 3.63% Other Current Liabilities 24.97% 25.10% 25.64% 25.64% 25.64% 25.64% 25.64% 25.64% Total Current Liabilities 28.55% 29.05% 29.40% 29.27% 29.27% 29.27% 29.27% 29.27% Long-Term Debt 92.51% 92.46% 95.26% 91.71% 91.78% 91.77% 90.87% 90.83% Employee Benefit Obligations 2.93% 3.35% 4.04% 4.04% 4.04% 4.04% 4.04% 4.04% Deferred Tax Liabilities 1.93% 1.68% 3.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Other Liabilities 13.05% 12.14% 12.12% 7.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% Total Liabilities 138.97% 138.67% 143.87% 132.01% 131.08% 131.07% 130.17% 130.13% Common Equity 70.90% 75.50% 81.19% 83.85% 87.38% 91.44% 94.42% 92.59% Retained Earnings 97.69% 111.40% 125.14% 130.49% 137.21% 143.77% 148.79% 154.01% Cumulative Translation Adjustment/Unrealized For. Exch. Gain -0.77% -2.57% -3.48% -3.37% -3.31% -3.26% -3.19% -3.12% Unrealized Gain/Loss Marketable Securities 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% Other Appropriated Reserves -1.36% -1.45% -2.07% -2.00% -1.96% -1.94% -1.89% -1.85% Treasury Stock -139.48% -156.20% -166.54% -168.96% -173.29% -178.10% -181.03% -184.56% Total Shareholders' Equity 26.98% 26.67% 34.25% 40.01% 46.03% 51.92% 57.10% 57.06% Accumulated Minority Interest 1.77% 2.11% 2.11% 2.05% 2.01% 1.98% 1.93% 1.90% Total Equity 28.75% 28.78% 36.36% 42.06% 48.04% 53.90% 59.04% 58.96% Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 167.72% 167.45% 180.24% 174.07% 179.12% 184.97% 189.21% 189.09%
  • 18. Viacom Inc Value Driver Estimation Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Sales 13,783.00 13,268.00 12,488.00 12,889.76 13,132.59 13,328.29 13,653.75 13,923.57 COGS excluding D&A 2,463.00 6,868.00 6,684.00 6,702.68 6,828.95 6,930.71 7,099.95 7,240.26 Depreciation 177.00 188.00 188.00 185.02 216.56 246.71 276.85 310.72 Amortization of Intangibles 40.00 34.00 33.00 30.57 41.07 53.63 66.20 79.98 SG&A 2,899.00 2,860.00 2,851.00 2,964.64 3,020.50 3,132.15 3,208.63 3,272.04 +PV of Interest on Op Leases 64.80 68.77 71.63 67.51 69.68 70.99 72.05 73.81 EBITA 8,268.80 3,386.77 2,803.63 3,074.35 3,095.20 3,036.08 3,074.17 3,094.39 106.95% -59.04% -17.22% 9.66% 0.68% -1.91% 1.25% 0.66% Pre Tax Income 3,514.00 2,503.00 1,990.00 2,478.18 2,486.42 2,418.04 2,448.04 2,455.83 Total Income Tax Provision (inc. tax) 1,050.00 501.00 519.00 693.89 696.20 677.05 685.45 687.63 Tax Rate = Pre Tax/Total Inc. Provision. 29.88% 20.02% 26.08% 28.00% 28.00% 28.00% 28.00% 28.00% Plus Tax Shield on Interest Expense 183.76 131.50 160.66 171.15 174.50 177.08 179.63 183.11 Plus Tax on Lease Interest 19.36 13.77 18.68 18.90 19.51 19.88 20.17 20.67 Plus Tax Shield on Amortized Goodwill 16.14 44.84 76.42 - - - - - Minus Tax on Non-Operating Income (Plus in this formula) (Nonop Int. Income+Other Inc) 17.33 13.21 20.86 23.12 23.56 23.91 24.49 24.98 Less Adjusted Taxes 1,251.93 677.90 753.89 860.82 866.65 850.10 860.77 866.43 Plus Change in Deferred Taxes (383.00) (43.00) 158.00 (381.00) - - - - Equals NOPLAT 6,633.86 2,665.88 2,207.74 1,832.54 2,228.54 2,185.98 2,213.40 2,227.96 NOPLAT Growth % 149.81% -59.81% -17.19% -17.00% 21.61% -1.91% 1.25% 0.66% Normal Cash (2% * Sales) 275.66 265.36 249.76 257.80 262.65 266.57 273.08 278.47 Short-Term Receivables 3,066.00 2,807.00 2,712.00 2,799.25 2,851.98 2,894.48 2,965.16 3,023.76 Inventory 846.00 786.00 844.00 871.15 887.56 900.79 922.79 941.02 Other Current Assets 340.00 559.00 587.00 605.88 617.30 626.50 641.80 654.48 Operating Current Assets 4,527.66 4,417.36 4,392.76 4,534.08 4,619.50 4,688.34 4,802.82 4,897.73 Accounts Payable 475.00 506.00 453.00 467.57 476.38 483.48 495.29 505.08 Non Interest-Bearing Current Liabilities 741.00 729.00 834.00 467.57 476.38 483.48 495.29 505.08 Net Operating Working Capital 3,786.66 3,688.36 3,558.76 4,066.51 4,143.12 4,204.86 4,307.54 4,392.66 Plus Net PPE 1,016.00 947.00 932.00 1,090.88 1,242.76 1,394.56 1,565.15 1,735.32 PV of Operating Leases 1,343.20 1,399.08 1,318.56 1,360.98 1,386.62 1,407.28 1,441.65 1,470.13 Net Other Intangibles 399.00 340.00 315.00 423.15 552.52 682.09 824.02 967.07 Other Assets 4,088.00 3,760.00 4,207.00 4,342.35 4,424.15 4,490.08 4,599.72 4,690.62 Plus Net Other Operating Assets 5,830.20 5,499.08 5,840.56 6,126.47 6,363.29 6,579.45 6,865.39 7,127.83 Less other Liab. (BS line items) 3,442.00 3,330.00 3,202.00 3,305.01 3,367.28 3,417.45 3,500.91 3,570.09 Invested Capital 7,190.86 6,804.44 7,129.32 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17 9,685.72 WACC 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% NOPLAT 6,633.86 2,665.88 2,207.74 1,832.54 2,228.54 2,185.98 2,213.40 2,227.96 Beg Invested Capital 6,776.42 7,190.86 6,804.44 7,129.32 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17 End Invested Capital 7,190.86 6,804.44 7,129.32 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17 9,685.72 ROIC (NOPLAT/Beg IC) 97.90% 37.07% 32.45% 25.70% 27.93% 26.08% 25.26% 24.12% FCF (NOPLAT - Change in IC) 6,219.43 3,052.29 1,882.87 983.01 1,825.50 1,806.46 1,737.65 1,779.42 EP (Beg IC * (ROIC-WACC)) 6,159.69 2,162.70 1,731.61 1,333.67 1,670.23 1,599.47 1,600.33 1,581.60
  • 19. Viacom Inc Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Estimation 2016 Risk Free Rate (30yr T-Bond as of 9/9/16) 3.01% Market Risk Premium (Henry Fund Team Choice) 5.00% Beta (Bloomberg) 1.400 Cost of Equity (Risk Free + (Beta * Mkt Risk) 10.01% Cost of Debt (From Bond Maturity: 08/21/2046) 5.12% Cost of Preferred Shares 0 Marginal Tax Rate (Effective) 28.00% Total Shares Outstanding 397.00 Price $37.77 Mkt Value of Equity ( E ) 14,994.69$ FMV of Debt 11,820.81$ Operating Leases (PV) 1,318.56$ Underfunded Pension Liabilities 504.00$ Mkt Value of Debt ( D ) 13,643$ Mkt Value of Preferred (Pfd) -$ Mkt Value of Firm (E+D+PfD) (V) 28,638.06$ Equity Portion of WACC (Cost of Equity * E/V) 5.24% Debt Portion of WACC (cost of Debt* (1-t) * D/V) 1.76% Preferred Portion of WACC (Cost of Preferred * Pfd/V) -$ WACC 7.00%
  • 20. Viacom Inc Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Economic Profit (EP) Valuation Models Key Inputs: CV NOPLAT Growth 1.00% Beg IC 2017 7,129.32 CV ROIC 24.12% Shares Outstanding 381.66 WACC 7.00% Cost of Equity 10.01% Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E CV (End of 2021/Beg 2022) DCF Model NOPLAT 1,832.54 2,228.54 2,185.98 2,213.40 2,227.96 Beg IC 7,129.32 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17 End IC 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17 9,685.72 ROIC 25.70% 27.93% 26.08% 25.26% 24.12% DCF CV (NOPLAT*(1- g/ROIC)/(WACC-g)) 35,608.65 FCF (NOPLAT - Change in IC) 983.01 1,825.50 1,806.46 1,737.65 1,779.42 PV of FCF 918.72 1,594.54 1,474.72 1,325.77 1,268.85 25,391.57 V of Oper (Sum of PV of FCF) 31,974.17 Cash (81.90) Normal Cash (Sales * Normal Cash %) (2%) 257.80 Excess Cash (Cash-Normal Cash) - Minority Interests (- V of Other) (264.00) Long Term Investments 986.70 V of Non-Oper 722.70 -V of Debt = FMV of Debt (From WACC sheet) 13,643.37 -PV of ESOP 113.39 V of Equity 18,940.10$ Shares Outstanding 381.66 Target Price (V of Equity/Shares) 49.63$ To Today's Value 52.68$ EP Model NOPLAT 1,832.54 2,228.54 2,185.98 2,213.40 2,227.96 Beg IC 7,129.32 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17 End IC 7,978.85 8,381.89 8,761.42 9,237.17 9,685.72 ROIC 25.70% 27.93% 26.08% 25.26% 24.12% EP CV 26,371.48 EP (Beg IC * (ROIC-WACC)) 1,333.67 1,670.23 1,599.47 1,600.33 1,581.60 Discounted EP 1,246.45 1,458.91 1,305.74 1,221.00 1,127.80 18,485.13 V of Oper (Beg IC 2015 + Sum of PV of EP) 31,974.35 V of Non-Oper 722.70 -V of Debt = FMV of Debt (From WACC sheet) 13,643.37 -PV of ESOP 113.39 V of Equity 18,940.29$ Shares Outstanding 381.66 Target Price (V of Equity/Shares) 49.63$ To Today's Value 52.68$
  • 21. Viacom Inc Dividend Discount Model (DDM) or Fundamental P/E Valuation Model 1 2 3 4 5 Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E EPS 4.56$ 4.74$ 4.76$ 4.96$ 5.11$ Key Assumptions Growth -24.97% 26.00% 3.86% 0.47% 4.12% CV Growth 1.00% ROE 32.13% 27.70% 23.66% 21.35% 21.03% Cost of Equity 10.01% 10.01% 10.01% 10.01% 10.01% Future Cash Flows P/E Multiple (CV Year) 13.66 EPS (CV Year) 5.11$ Future Stock Price 56.70$ Dividends Per Share 1.44$ 1.49$ 1.56$ 1.64$ 1.77$ Discounted Cash Flows 1.31$ 1.23$ 1.17$ 1.12$ 36.29$ Intrinsic Value 41.12$ To Today's Price 43.64$
  • 22. Viacom Inc Relative Valuation Models Direct Competitors EPS EPS Est. 5yr Ticker Company Price 2017E 2018E P/E 17 EPS gr. PEG 17 PEG 18 DIS Walt Disney Co $98.24 $5.97 $6.70 16.5 9.6 1.71 1.53 TWX Time Warner Inc $91.35 $5.78 $5.93 15.8 14.0 1.13 1.10 DISCA Discovery Communications Inc $27.50 $2.07 $2.30 13.3 14.1 0.94 0.85 SNI Scripps Networks Interactive Inc $69.65 $5.26 $5.31 13.2 9.0 1.47 1.46 FOXA Twenty-First Century Fox Inc $27.82 $1.91 $2.11 14.6 9.8 1.49 1.35 Average 14.2 1.3 1.2 VIA Viacom Inc $42.05 3.62 4.56 11.6 4.4 2.6 2.1 Implied Value: Relative P/E (EPS17) $ 51.52 Relative P/E (EPS18) 61.23$ PEG Ratio (EPS17) 20.24$ PEG Ratio (EPS18) 24.09$
  • 23. Viacom Inc Key Management Ratios Fiscal Years Ending Sept. 30 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio = Current Assets/Current Liabilities 1.77 1.33 1.21 1.23 1.11 1.31 1.51 1.69 Current Ratio ex Cash = Curr Assets ex Cash/Curr Liab 1.14 1.08 1.08 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 Quick Ratio = (Cash+Marketable Securities+Accounts Receivables)/Current Liabilities 1.57 1.12 1.00 1.00 0.88 1.08 1.28 1.45 Quick Ratio ex Cash 0.94 0.87 0.87 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 Operating Cash Flow Ratio = Cash Flow From Operations/Current Liabilities 0.52 0.30 0.31 0.23 0.47 0.50 0.49 Activity or Asset-Management Ratios Total Assets Turnover = Sales/Total Assets 0.58 0.60 0.60 0.55 0.57 0.56 0.54 0.53 Total Assets Turnover ex Cash 0.64 0.62 0.61 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.58 Inventory Turnover 8.83 2.91 8.74 7.92 7.69 7.69 7.69 7.69 Financial Leverage Ratios Debt Ratio = Total Liab/Total Assets 77.38% 82.86% 82.81% 79.82% 75.84% 73.18% 70.86% 68.80% Debt Ratio ex Cash 86.06% 86.60% 84.75% 81.19% 75.56% 75.33% 75.36% 75.22% Equity Ratio = Total Equity/Total Assets 21.79% 16.09% 15.92% 19.00% 22.99% 25.70% 28.07% 30.18% Equity Ratio ex Cash 24.24% 16.82% 16.30% 19.33% 22.90% 26.45% 29.85% 33.00% Profitability Ratios Gross Margin Ratio= (Sales-COGS-SG&A)/Sales 61.10% 61.10% 26.68% 23.65% 25.00% 25.00% 24.50% 24.50% Profit Margin Ratio = Net Income/Sales 17.35% 17.35% 14.49% 11.50% 13.51% 13.31% 12.75% 12.60% ROA = Net Income/Avg Total Assets 10.21% 10.19% 8.48% 6.42% 7.75% 7.60% 7.06% 6.82% ROE= Net Income/Shareholder Equity 46.06% 64.32% 54.32% 33.57% 33.77% 28.91% 24.56% 22.07% Payout Policy Ratios Dividend Payout Ratio 23.06% 22.62% 29.34% 44.22% 31.60% 31.33% 32.75% 33.02% Payout Ratio = Div+Repurchase/Net Income 222.48% 164.76% 107.39% 49.30% 56.26% 56.08% 57.66% 56.96%
  • 24. Viacom Inc Sensitivity Analysis DCF Target Price 52.68$ As of 2016-11-18 1.000 1.100 1.200 1.300 1.400 1.500 1.600 1.700 1.800 4.12% 4.37% 4.62% 4.87% 5.12% 5.37% 5.62% 5.87% 6.12% 2.21% 82.01 75.47 69.61 64.32 59.52 55.14 51.13 47.45 44.05 38.00% 57.85 56.53 55.26 54.02 52.82 51.66 50.52 49.42 48.35 2.41% 79.30 73.05 67.42 62.34 57.71 53.49 49.62 46.06 42.76 39.00% 57.82 56.50 55.23 53.99 52.79 51.62 50.48 49.38 48.31 2.61% 76.71 70.73 65.33 60.43 55.97 51.90 48.15 44.70 41.51 40.00% 57.79 56.47 55.19 53.95 52.75 51.58 50.45 49.34 48.27 2.81% 74.24 68.50 63.31 58.60 54.30 50.36 46.74 43.39 40.30 41.00% 57.76 56.44 55.16 53.92 52.71 51.54 50.41 49.30 48.23 3.01% 71.86 66.35 61.37 56.83 52.68 48.87 45.36 42.12 39.12 42.00% 57.73 56.41 55.13 53.88 52.68 51.51 50.37 49.26 48.18 3.21% 69.59 64.30 59.49 55.12 51.11 47.43 44.03 40.89 37.97 43.00% 57.70 56.37 55.09 53.85 52.64 51.47 50.33 49.22 48.14 3.41% 67.40 62.32 57.69 53.47 49.60 46.03 42.74 39.69 36.86 44.00% 57.67 56.34 55.06 53.81 52.60 51.43 50.29 49.18 48.10 3.61% 65.30 60.41 55.95 51.88 48.13 44.68 41.49 38.53 35.78 45.00% 57.63 56.31 55.02 53.78 52.57 51.39 50.25 49.14 48.06 3.81% 63.29 58.57 54.28 50.34 46.72 43.37 40.28 37.40 34.72 46.00% 57.60 56.28 54.99 53.74 52.53 51.35 50.21 49.10 48.02 24.00% 25.00% 26.00% 27.00% 28.00% 29.00% 30.00% 31.00% 32.00% 2.72% 2.92% 3.12% 3.32% 3.52% 3.72% 3.92% 4.12% 4.32% 4.00% 69.55 68.50 67.45 66.39 65.32 64.24 63.15 62.05 60.94 0.60% 49.41 49.41 49.41 49.41 49.41 49.41 49.41 49.41 49.41 4.25% 66.00 64.98 63.94 62.90 61.84 60.78 59.71 58.63 57.54 0.70% 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 50.19 4.50% 62.68 61.67 60.65 59.63 58.59 57.55 56.50 55.43 54.36 0.80% 50.99 50.99 50.99 50.99 50.99 50.99 50.99 50.99 50.99 4.75% 59.57 58.57 57.57 56.56 55.54 54.52 53.48 52.44 51.39 0.90% 51.82 51.82 51.82 51.82 51.82 51.82 51.82 51.82 51.82 5.00% 56.63 55.66 54.67 53.68 52.68 51.67 50.65 49.63 48.60 1.00% 52.68 52.68 52.68 52.68 52.68 52.68 52.68 52.68 52.68 5.25% 53.87 52.91 51.94 50.96 49.98 48.99 47.99 46.99 45.97 1.10% 53.56 53.56 53.56 53.56 53.56 53.56 53.56 53.56 53.56 5.50% 51.26 50.31 49.36 48.40 47.43 46.46 45.48 44.49 43.50 1.20% 54.48 54.48 54.48 54.48 54.48 54.48 54.48 54.48 54.48 5.75% 48.79 47.86 46.92 45.98 45.03 44.07 43.11 42.14 41.16 1.30% 55.43 55.43 55.43 55.43 55.43 55.43 55.43 55.43 55.43 6.00% 46.45 45.54 44.61 43.69 42.75 41.81 40.86 39.91 38.95 1.40% 56.41 56.41 56.41 56.41 56.41 56.41 56.41 56.41 56.41 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.60 0.00% 0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00% 1.25% 1.50% 1.75% 2.00% 21.00% 90.48 81.16 71.83 62.50 53.62 44.80 35.97 27.15 18.33 1.00% 39.97 40.83 41.74 42.69 43.70 44.77 45.90 47.10 48.37 21.50% 90.12 80.80 71.47 62.21 53.38 44.56 35.74 26.92 18.09 1.25% 39.95 40.81 41.72 42.68 43.69 44.76 45.89 47.08 48.36 22.00% 89.76 80.44 71.11 61.97 53.15 44.33 35.50 26.68 17.86 1.50% 39.94 40.80 41.71 42.66 43.67 44.74 45.87 47.07 48.34 22.50% 89.40 80.07 70.75 61.74 52.91 44.09 35.27 26.44 17.62 1.75% 39.93 40.79 41.69 42.65 43.66 44.73 45.85 47.05 48.32 23.00% 89.04 79.71 70.39 61.50 52.68 43.85 35.03 26.21 17.39 2.00% 39.91 40.77 41.68 42.64 43.64 44.71 45.84 47.04 48.31 23.50% 88.68 79.35 70.09 61.26 52.44 43.62 34.80 25.97 17.15 2.25% 39.90 40.76 41.67 42.62 43.63 44.70 45.82 47.02 48.29 24.00% 88.32 78.99 69.85 61.03 52.21 43.38 34.56 25.74 16.92 2.50% 39.89 40.75 41.65 42.61 43.61 44.68 45.81 47.00 48.27 24.50% 87.95 78.63 69.62 60.79 51.97 43.15 34.33 25.50 16.68 2.75% 39.87 40.73 41.64 42.59 43.60 44.66 45.79 46.99 48.26 25.00% 87.59 78.27 69.38 60.56 51.74 42.91 34.09 25.27 16.44 3.00% 39.86 40.72 41.62 42.58 43.58 44.65 45.78 46.97 48.24 43.64$ As of 2016-11-18 DDM Target Price NOPLAT CV Growth SG&A/Rev Pre-Tax Cost of Debt Normal Cash % Beta COGS/REV Risk Free Rate Tax Rate Market Risk Rate Net Intagibles/Revenue CV EPS Growth Normal Cash %