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New Hampshire, Euro &
           Greek Crisis

      Dr. Evangelos Otto Simos
Chief Economist – e-forecasting.com
   Professor of Economics - UNH

 Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
Spillover Effects EURO
                                               2


               Recession




Client-tailored solutions for what’s next   03/29/12
3
  How Much are New Hampshire
Companies Exposed to EURO AREA?
 Euro Area: A Major Destination for State Exports                                              New Hampshire's Foreign Sales
 Rank of
                  State
                                      Exports to
                                                   1
                                                        Export
                                                                  2
                                                                        Euro Area               Fell to $242 Million in January
Exposure                              Euro Area        Growth         Importance 3
          1       Connecticut             $345             19.0            30.0                       Monthly State Exports                  Underlying Export Trend
          2       West Virginia           $225             60.7            28.6
          3       Indiana                 $559             -3.7            22.8
                                                                                     $500
          4       South Carolina          $426             26.9            21.3
          5       New Jersey              $575             43.4            20.7
          6       Massachusetts           $423             -8.4            19.7
                                                                                     $450
          7       Rhode Island             $28            -23.7            18.9
          8       New Hampshire            $49             -0.6            18.4      $400
          9       Alabama                 $245             16.6            17.7
         10       Maryland                $148             24.1            17.2      $350
         11       Missouri                $187             15.6            16.9
         12       Pennsylvania            $498             10.6            15.6      $300
         13       Kentucky                $244             -0.1            15.4
         14       Louisiana               $740            -28.9            15.2
         15       Minnesota               $224             -8.4            14.9
                                                                                     $250
         16       Virginia                $203            -19.7            14.9
         17       New York                $940              1.4            14.3      $200
         18       North Carolina          $288            -11.1            14.1
         19       Ohio                    $519             27.9            13.9      $150
         20       Illinois                $693              7.8            13.3
                  United States        $15,048              2.7            12.7      $100
 1
     Exports to Euro Area in January of 2012, in millions of dollars.
                                                                                                 02     03     04     05      06        07     08     09      10       11   12
 2
     Percent change in exports in January of 2012 from 2011.
 3
     Ratio of exports to Euro Area to total exports, percent.                        Exports data: Seasonally adjusted in millions of
                                                                                                                                                      e-forecasting.com
                                                                                     dollars
                          www. e-forecasting.com



       Client-tailored solutions for what’s next                                                                                                                        03/29/12
What a Differences 3000
          Years Make
 Then, (origin)                                 Now, Greece may
 Europa was a Phoenician                         cause Euro’s
  princess who was abducted                       disintegration
  by Zeus in bull form and
  taken to the Greek island of
  Crete




    Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
5
What Were They thinking?
   Is The Party Over?




Client-tailored solutions for what’s next   03/29/12
The Underground Economy and
      Income Tax Rates




  Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
By the Numbers

                                        Indicator Year Greece         USA

GDP (current US$) (billions)                        2008    356.8 14,204.30

GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$)          2008   28,650    47,580

Life expectancy at birth, total (years)             2007      80        78

Population, total (millions)                        2008     11.2     304.1

Population growth (annual %)                        2008      0.4       0.9

School enrollment, primary (% net)                  2007     99.6      92.4


        Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
8
        Do Greeks Have Any
       Business Advantage?
 The Hellenic Merchant Marine refers to the
  Merchant Marine of Greece, consists of the
  merchant vessels owned by Greek civilians, flying
  either the Greek flag or a flag of convenience.
 Greece is the largest shipping-nation in the world
  with a total of 141,931,000 metric tons
  deadweight (DWT).
 Greece ranks first in both tankers and dry bulk
  carriers, fourth in the number of containers, and
  fourth in other ships.


     Client-tailored solutions for what’s next         03/29/12
9
  What’s the Cause of Greek
        Insolvency?
 Politics?



 Economics?



 Moral
  Hazard?

   Client-tailored solutions for what’s next   03/29/12
10

                        Questions?

 For any additional insights or
  questions on this presentation:
  – info@e-forecasting.com
  – http://www.e-forecasting.com




  Client-tailored solutions for what’s next   03/29/12

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New Hampshire, Euro & the Greek Crisis

  • 1. New Hampshire, Euro & Greek Crisis Dr. Evangelos Otto Simos Chief Economist – e-forecasting.com Professor of Economics - UNH Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
  • 2. Spillover Effects EURO 2 Recession Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 03/29/12
  • 3. 3 How Much are New Hampshire Companies Exposed to EURO AREA? Euro Area: A Major Destination for State Exports New Hampshire's Foreign Sales Rank of State Exports to 1 Export 2 Euro Area Fell to $242 Million in January Exposure Euro Area Growth Importance 3 1 Connecticut $345 19.0 30.0 Monthly State Exports Underlying Export Trend 2 West Virginia $225 60.7 28.6 3 Indiana $559 -3.7 22.8 $500 4 South Carolina $426 26.9 21.3 5 New Jersey $575 43.4 20.7 6 Massachusetts $423 -8.4 19.7 $450 7 Rhode Island $28 -23.7 18.9 8 New Hampshire $49 -0.6 18.4 $400 9 Alabama $245 16.6 17.7 10 Maryland $148 24.1 17.2 $350 11 Missouri $187 15.6 16.9 12 Pennsylvania $498 10.6 15.6 $300 13 Kentucky $244 -0.1 15.4 14 Louisiana $740 -28.9 15.2 15 Minnesota $224 -8.4 14.9 $250 16 Virginia $203 -19.7 14.9 17 New York $940 1.4 14.3 $200 18 North Carolina $288 -11.1 14.1 19 Ohio $519 27.9 13.9 $150 20 Illinois $693 7.8 13.3 United States $15,048 2.7 12.7 $100 1 Exports to Euro Area in January of 2012, in millions of dollars. 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 2 Percent change in exports in January of 2012 from 2011. 3 Ratio of exports to Euro Area to total exports, percent. Exports data: Seasonally adjusted in millions of e-forecasting.com dollars www. e-forecasting.com Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 03/29/12
  • 4. What a Differences 3000 Years Make  Then, (origin)  Now, Greece may  Europa was a Phoenician cause Euro’s princess who was abducted disintegration by Zeus in bull form and taken to the Greek island of Crete Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
  • 5. 5 What Were They thinking? Is The Party Over? Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 03/29/12
  • 6. The Underground Economy and Income Tax Rates Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
  • 7. By the Numbers Indicator Year Greece USA GDP (current US$) (billions) 2008 356.8 14,204.30 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 2008 28,650 47,580 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 2007 80 78 Population, total (millions) 2008 11.2 304.1 Population growth (annual %) 2008 0.4 0.9 School enrollment, primary (% net) 2007 99.6 92.4 Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
  • 8. 8 Do Greeks Have Any Business Advantage?  The Hellenic Merchant Marine refers to the Merchant Marine of Greece, consists of the merchant vessels owned by Greek civilians, flying either the Greek flag or a flag of convenience.  Greece is the largest shipping-nation in the world with a total of 141,931,000 metric tons deadweight (DWT).  Greece ranks first in both tankers and dry bulk carriers, fourth in the number of containers, and fourth in other ships. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 03/29/12
  • 9. 9 What’s the Cause of Greek Insolvency?  Politics?  Economics?  Moral Hazard? Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 03/29/12
  • 10. 10 Questions?  For any additional insights or questions on this presentation: – info@e-forecasting.com – http://www.e-forecasting.com Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 03/29/12