Rich Antcliff, Chief Technologist at NASA Langley Research Center, gave a presentation titled "Innovating the Future". The presentation discussed exponential technological growth, reverse engineering the brain, impacts of ongoing IT revolution on society, augmented and virtual reality, and digital transparency. It also covered robotics, human augmentation, global demographics, climate change, energy issues, and the importance of innovation to economic leadership. The goal was to illustrate how rapidly technology is advancing and transforming society.

1. Innovating the Future
Rich Antcliff
Chief Technologist
NASA Langley Research Center
“Man’s mind stretched to a new idea never goes back to its
original dimensions.”
--Oliver Wendell Holmes
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 1

2. Waves crashing in the distance . . .
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 2

3. Technological Exponentials
Quiz:
Lily pads can grow fast.
Imagine that you discover a variety
of lily pads that can double in
number every day.
It takes 100 days for them grow to
cover a pond halfway.
How many days will it take to
completely cover the pond?
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 3

4. Technological Exponentials
Kurtzweil, 2005
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 4

5. Credit: Ray Kurzweil

6. Reverse Engineering the Brain:
the ultimate source of the templates of intelligence
The Cerebellum
 Gathering data from multiple
studies, Javier F. Medina, Michael
D. Mauk, and their colleagues at
the University of Texas Medical
School devised a detailed bottom-
up simulation of the cerebellum.
 Their simulation includes over
10,000 simulated neurons and
300,000 synapses, and includes
all of the principal types of
cerebellum cells.
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 6

7. IMPACTS OF ONGOING IT
REVOLUTION UPON SOCIETY
• Work (at home telecommuting, reduced local/corporal travel)
• Shopping (at home web based, (robotic?) delivery)
• Entertainment/leisure (at home immersive 3-D interactive/multi-
sensory via VR/holographic projection)
• Travel (3-D/interactive/multi-sensory tele-travel)
• Education (at home low cost asynchronous, web based on-
demand, highly motivational, life-long distance learning, .edu)
• Health (at home interactive tele-medicine)
• Politics (increased real-time virtual involvement of the body
politic)
• Commerce (tele-commerce already ubiquitous)
• Tele/Digital/on-site Manufacturing
• Tele-Socialization, Tele -[onsite] Manufacturing

8. Mirroring Virtual Reality
Augmented Reality Lifelogging

9. Digital Transparency:
Gmail, Lifelogs/Glogs
Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed.
Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it.
Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos, movie
clips, text messages, notes), SenseCam,
What Was I Thinking, and MyLifeBits
(2003) are early examples of
“lifelogs,” (aka Cyborglogs or ‘glogs’),
systems for recording, auto-archiving and
auto-indexing all life experience.
Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything
we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and bandwidth makes us
networkable in ways we never dreamed. Add NLP, collaborative
filtering, and other early AI to this, and all this data begins turning into
wisdom.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org

10. Accelerating Public Transparency:
Privacy vs. Anonymity
Wearcam.org’s
first gen
‘sousveillance’
systems
David Brin’s “Panopticon”
The Transparent Society, 1998
Hitachi’s mu-chip:
RFID for paper
Los Angeles
Palo Alto currency © 2005 Accelerating.org

11. Personality Capture
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long term futures have been proposed.
“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
Los Angeles
Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org

12. Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)
“I would never upload my consciousness
into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
When your best friend dies in 2080, your
digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your own conscious
perspective between your electronic and
biological components, the encapsulation
and transcendence of the biological may
begin to feel like only growth, not death. Greg Panos (and Mother)
PersonaFoundation.org
Los Angeles We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org

13. The cyborgs are amongst us!
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 13

14. Robo sapiens
“Huey and Louey”
AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2
(Something very cool
Aibo Soccer
about this algorithm…)
Los Angeles
Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org

15. Human- Related
“Bio Revolution Products”
• Human Adaptation
– Direct Photosynthesis
– Micro g/Radiation Hardening (for Space)
– “Water-Breathing”
• Human Amplification/”Cosmetics”
– Dogs’ Nose, Cats’ ear , Strength Enhancement
– Brain Augmentation
– Custom features/”colors”,”Tails”?
• Human Maintenance/SERIOUS Life Extension
– Disease Prevention
– “Parts Replacement”
– Currently,~.5 year/year heading to 1 year/year
“Designer Humans”………

16. The “Ultimate” Education
Approach - Plug and Play
Direct Silicon (or other such) device connection to
brain, (very rapid) uploads, Education in minutes
instead of
(many) years

17. Innovation is Accelerating
Percent of U.S. households with:
Television Electricity Air Travel
100%
Telephone
Radio
90%
80% Automobile
70%
60% PC
50% Cell
phone
40%
Internet
30%
20% PDA
10%
0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Years since product invented
Sources: J. Gerry Purdy’s presentation “The Next 50 Years in Mobile and Wireless” at Silicom Ventures, Trade press, Industry sources
Center for Accelerating Innovation

18. Ok, take a breath
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 18

19. Waves crashing in the nearby. . .
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 19

20. Global Demographics
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 20

21. World Population
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 21

22. Global Demographics
US Census Bureau International Database
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 22

23. National Science Board - 2010

24. Global Demographics
GDP ’03US$bn
50000
China
US
India
25000
Japan
Germany
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Goldman Sachs, Report 99
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 24

25. National Science Board - 2010

26. Global Demographics
• Engineering Graduates:
• United States - 70,000
• All of Europe - 100,000
• India - 450,000
• China - 700,000
http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2006/jun/09bspec.htm 2005 data
“..but the quality of the engineers is poor” - SO WHAT!
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 26

27. Language
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 27

28. Global Demographics
Those who ignore demographics will
do so at their own peril -
author unknown
Short breath
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 28

29. Waves crashing at home . .
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 29

30. Climate Change
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 30

31. Climate Change
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 31

32. Climate Change
CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples and
700
Projections for Next 100 Years
Projected
(2100)
650
600
Vostok Record
CO2 IS92a Scenario
IPCC
550
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
Law Dome Record
500
Mauna Loa Record
450
400
Current
(2001)
350
300
250
200
150
400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Years Before Present
(B.P. -- 1950)
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 32

33. Climate Change
Boulder Glacier, Washington State
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 33

34. We are losing our partners
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 34

35. Who has the Oil?
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 35

36. The Three Tsunamis
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 36

37. History should be our guide. The United States led the
world’s economies in the 20th century because we led the
world in innovation. Today, the competition is keener; the
challenge is tougher; and that is why innovation is more
important than ever. It is the key to good, new jobs for
the 21st century. That’s how we will ensure a high quality
of life for this generation and future generations.”
-President Barack Obama, August 5, 2009

38. One man with courage is a majority.
Thomas Jefferson
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 38

39. Thank You!
Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 39

40. http://technologygateway.nasa.gov