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Aging and Creative Productivity Is There an Age Decrement or Not?
Brief history: Antiquity of topic ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Central findings:  The typical age curve Described by fitting an equation derived from a combinatorial model of the creative process
 
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Central findings:  The typical age curve ,[object Object]
 
Central findings:  The typical age curve ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
Central findings:  The typical age curve ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
With correlations with published data between .95 and .99.
Criticisms of findings: Is the age decrement real?
Criticisms of findings: Is the age decrement real? ,[object Object]
Criticisms of findings: Is the age decrement real? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Criticisms of findings: Is the age decrement real? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Criticisms of findings: Is the age decrement real? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Criticisms of findings: Is the age decrement real? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Criticisms of findings: Is the age decrement real? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
e.g., the career of Thomas Edison C Edison  ( t ) = 2595( e   - .044 t  -  e   - .058 t ) r  = .74
 
However ...
Complicating considerations
Complicating considerations ,[object Object]
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
In fact,  1) cross-sectional variation always appreciably greater than longitudinal variation 2) the lower an individual’s productivity the more random the longitudinal distribution becomes
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Hence, arises a two-dimensional typology of career trajectories
 
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object]
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Journalist Alexander Woolcott reporting on G. B. Shaw: “At 83 Shaw’s mind was perhaps not quite as good as it used to be.  It was still better than anyone else’s.”
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Complicating considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Hence, the creative productivity within any given career will show major departures from expectation, some positive and some negative
Three Main Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Hence, the possibility of late-life creative productivity increments; e.g.,  Michel-Eugène Chevreul  (1786-1889)
References ,[object Object],[object Object]
References ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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