Moteki MJO seminar-150401 Hypothesis on eastward propagation mechanism of the...耕作 茂木
What: マッデンジュリアン振動の東進機構の仮説
CINDY2011期間で最初に発生した10月下旬のMJOの事例解析から、その東進機構について仮説を提案する。
その仮説とは、南インド洋上を東進する温帯低気圧がMJOを牽引して東進させる、というものである。
このMJO対流は、南緯40−10度を東進する温帯低気圧とほぼ完全に同期して赤道インド洋から海大陸に東進していた。
温帯低気圧は、その西側に気圧傾度力によって生じる地表の西風偏差域を伴い、東風偏差域との境界では、南北に伸びる東西風収束帯が形成される。
すなわち、南インド洋上の温帯低気圧から南北に伸びる寒冷前線の収束帯が赤道域にまで伸び、MJO対流を牽引したため、両者は完全に同じ速度(〜6 m/s)で東進した。
このMJO東進機構の概念図をFigure 4に示す。
この提案されたMJO東進シナリオは、3つの図(OLR、JRA55によるSLP、地表西風偏差、地表収束)に基いて簡潔に説明される。
Hypothesis on the mechanism of eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
This study proposes a new hypothesis on the eastward propagation mechanism of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) from a case study of the first MJO generated in the late October during CINDY2011.
The hypothesis is that the MJO convection is pulled by an eastward-propagating extratropical cyclone over the southern Indian Ocean.
The eastward propagation of the MJO convection from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent was found to be completely synchronized with that of the extratropical cyclone from the analyses of OLR and SLP with the JRA55.
The extratropical cyclone was accompanied by the anomalous westerlies to the west, which was due to the pressure gradient force.
Schematic illustrations for the eastward-propagation mechanism of the MJO is shown in Figure 4 (see URL).
Thus, the surface convergence zone extending from the extratropical cyclone to the equator pulled the MJO convection eastward and the both propagated at the same speed (〜6 m/s).
The proposed scenario of the eastward propagation of the MJO is simply explained by three figures of OLR, SLP, anomalous surface winds, and surface convergence with JRA55.
Figure 1: http://bit.ly/1OBUU6o
Figure 2: http://bit.ly/1NkR79X
Figure 3: http://bit.ly/1D4chd5
Figure 4: http://bit.ly/1CSWAUg
Moteki mjo_seminar 20131029 at JAMSTEC(Modified)耕作 茂木
JAMSTEC MJO research seminar
Youtube video of seminar discussion at JAMSTEC
http://youtu.be/c3N9bu7zOew
Title:
Initiation process of convective systems
observed along a SST front over the Indian Ocean
- The initiation of the MJO in the late October 2011 -
Abstract:
Characteristics of 2-5 day period disturbances
observed in October 2011 over the Indian Ocean were investigated.
Convective systems of which the MJO in October 2011 consisted
were generating along a SST front around 5S-10S
before and during the onset of the MJO in the late October.
The SST front was maintained for more than months between 40-100E.
The surface convergence were continuously formed
along the SST front and convective systems were repeatedly generated there.
Such repeated generation of convection along the SST front
was considered to contribute on charge
and integration of the moisture for the onset of the MJO.
発表者:茂木耕作 氏
日時 :10月29日(火)15:30-16:30
場所 :海洋科学技術館2階 会議室
タイトル:
インド洋の海面水温前線上での対流初期形成過程
~CINDY2011で捉えられたMJOの発生~
要旨:
CINDY2011期間の10月下旬に発生したMJOを対象に
対流の初期形成過程を調べた.南緯5-10度で
繰り返し発生していた対流系発生は,
東西に伸びる海面水温前線上に一致していた.
本研究の目的は,MJOの発生前後において対流系が
この海面水温前線上で繰り返し発生し続けた原因を解明することである.
この海面水温前線は,MJOの発生前後1ヶ月間,
南緯5-10度付近で維持され続けていた.
風速の変動に関わらず,大気下層の収束線が継続的に形成される.
この前線に伴う定常的な下層収束が,
対流系が継続的に発生する第一の要因であると考えられる.
一方,対流系発生の周期は,西進する渦擾乱に伴う
水蒸気量の極大とよく対応していた.その渦擾乱は,
2-5日の周期を持ち,対流系の発生周期と一致している.
すなわち,西進する渦擾乱に伴う水蒸気供給と,
海面水温前線に強制された定常的な下層収束が,
MJOを構成する対流系の主要な形成要因である.
A triggering factor of the eastward propagation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is proposed from a case study of the first MJO generated in late October during CINDY2011. The proposed scenario is that the eastward propagation of the MJO is triggered by an extratropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere. The ridge and trough pair meridionally extending between 30°S~15°N accompanied by the extratropical cyclone was found to be completely synchronized with the eastward propagating MJO convection. The ascending areas of the cold front extending from the extratropical cyclone partially combined with those of the MJO and the large-scale ridge and trough below 500 hPa were formed across the midlatitudes in the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics. The convection center of the MJO shifted eastward as a result of the westerly winds in the tropics, expanding eastward by the zonal pressure gradient force between the ridge and trough.
Moteki MJO seminar-150401 Hypothesis on eastward propagation mechanism of the...耕作 茂木
What: マッデンジュリアン振動の東進機構の仮説
CINDY2011期間で最初に発生した10月下旬のMJOの事例解析から、その東進機構について仮説を提案する。
その仮説とは、南インド洋上を東進する温帯低気圧がMJOを牽引して東進させる、というものである。
このMJO対流は、南緯40−10度を東進する温帯低気圧とほぼ完全に同期して赤道インド洋から海大陸に東進していた。
温帯低気圧は、その西側に気圧傾度力によって生じる地表の西風偏差域を伴い、東風偏差域との境界では、南北に伸びる東西風収束帯が形成される。
すなわち、南インド洋上の温帯低気圧から南北に伸びる寒冷前線の収束帯が赤道域にまで伸び、MJO対流を牽引したため、両者は完全に同じ速度(〜6 m/s)で東進した。
このMJO東進機構の概念図をFigure 4に示す。
この提案されたMJO東進シナリオは、3つの図(OLR、JRA55によるSLP、地表西風偏差、地表収束)に基いて簡潔に説明される。
Hypothesis on the mechanism of eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
This study proposes a new hypothesis on the eastward propagation mechanism of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) from a case study of the first MJO generated in the late October during CINDY2011.
The hypothesis is that the MJO convection is pulled by an eastward-propagating extratropical cyclone over the southern Indian Ocean.
The eastward propagation of the MJO convection from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent was found to be completely synchronized with that of the extratropical cyclone from the analyses of OLR and SLP with the JRA55.
The extratropical cyclone was accompanied by the anomalous westerlies to the west, which was due to the pressure gradient force.
Schematic illustrations for the eastward-propagation mechanism of the MJO is shown in Figure 4 (see URL).
Thus, the surface convergence zone extending from the extratropical cyclone to the equator pulled the MJO convection eastward and the both propagated at the same speed (〜6 m/s).
The proposed scenario of the eastward propagation of the MJO is simply explained by three figures of OLR, SLP, anomalous surface winds, and surface convergence with JRA55.
Figure 1: http://bit.ly/1OBUU6o
Figure 2: http://bit.ly/1NkR79X
Figure 3: http://bit.ly/1D4chd5
Figure 4: http://bit.ly/1CSWAUg
Moteki mjo_seminar 20131029 at JAMSTEC(Modified)耕作 茂木
JAMSTEC MJO research seminar
Youtube video of seminar discussion at JAMSTEC
http://youtu.be/c3N9bu7zOew
Title:
Initiation process of convective systems
observed along a SST front over the Indian Ocean
- The initiation of the MJO in the late October 2011 -
Abstract:
Characteristics of 2-5 day period disturbances
observed in October 2011 over the Indian Ocean were investigated.
Convective systems of which the MJO in October 2011 consisted
were generating along a SST front around 5S-10S
before and during the onset of the MJO in the late October.
The SST front was maintained for more than months between 40-100E.
The surface convergence were continuously formed
along the SST front and convective systems were repeatedly generated there.
Such repeated generation of convection along the SST front
was considered to contribute on charge
and integration of the moisture for the onset of the MJO.
発表者:茂木耕作 氏
日時 :10月29日(火)15:30-16:30
場所 :海洋科学技術館2階 会議室
タイトル:
インド洋の海面水温前線上での対流初期形成過程
~CINDY2011で捉えられたMJOの発生~
要旨:
CINDY2011期間の10月下旬に発生したMJOを対象に
対流の初期形成過程を調べた.南緯5-10度で
繰り返し発生していた対流系発生は,
東西に伸びる海面水温前線上に一致していた.
本研究の目的は,MJOの発生前後において対流系が
この海面水温前線上で繰り返し発生し続けた原因を解明することである.
この海面水温前線は,MJOの発生前後1ヶ月間,
南緯5-10度付近で維持され続けていた.
風速の変動に関わらず,大気下層の収束線が継続的に形成される.
この前線に伴う定常的な下層収束が,
対流系が継続的に発生する第一の要因であると考えられる.
一方,対流系発生の周期は,西進する渦擾乱に伴う
水蒸気量の極大とよく対応していた.その渦擾乱は,
2-5日の周期を持ち,対流系の発生周期と一致している.
すなわち,西進する渦擾乱に伴う水蒸気供給と,
海面水温前線に強制された定常的な下層収束が,
MJOを構成する対流系の主要な形成要因である.
A triggering factor of the eastward propagation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is proposed from a case study of the first MJO generated in late October during CINDY2011. The proposed scenario is that the eastward propagation of the MJO is triggered by an extratropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere. The ridge and trough pair meridionally extending between 30°S~15°N accompanied by the extratropical cyclone was found to be completely synchronized with the eastward propagating MJO convection. The ascending areas of the cold front extending from the extratropical cyclone partially combined with those of the MJO and the large-scale ridge and trough below 500 hPa were formed across the midlatitudes in the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics. The convection center of the MJO shifted eastward as a result of the westerly winds in the tropics, expanding eastward by the zonal pressure gradient force between the ridge and trough.
JAMSTEC MJO research seminar
Youtube video of seminar discussion at JAMSTEC
http://youtu.be/c3N9bu7zOew
Title:
Initiation process of convective systems
observed along a SST front over the Indian Ocean
- The initiation of the MJO in the late October 2011 -
Abstract:
Characteristics of 2-5 day period disturbances
observed in October 2011 over the Indian Ocean were investigated.
Convective systems of which the MJO in October 2011 consisted
were generating along a SST front around 5S-10S
before and during the onset of the MJO in the late October.
The SST front was maintained for more than months between 40-100E.
The surface convergence were continuously formed
along the SST front and convective systems were repeatedly generated there.
Such repeated generation of convection along the SST front
was considered to contribute on charge
and integration of the moisture for the onset of the MJO.
発表者:茂木耕作 氏
日時 :10月29日(火)15:30-16:30
場所 :海洋科学技術館2階 会議室
タイトル:
インド洋の海面水温前線上での対流初期形成過程
~CINDY2011で捉えられたMJOの発生~
要旨:
CINDY2011期間の10月下旬に発生したMJOを対象に
対流の初期形成過程を調べた.南緯5-10度で
繰り返し発生していた対流系発生は,
東西に伸びる海面水温前線上に一致していた.
本研究の目的は,MJOの発生前後において対流系が
この海面水温前線上で繰り返し発生し続けた原因を解明することである.
この海面水温前線は,MJOの発生前後1ヶ月間,
南緯5-10度付近で維持され続けていた.
風速の変動に関わらず,大気下層の収束線が継続的に形成される.
この前線に伴う定常的な下層収束が,
対流系が継続的に発生する第一の要因であると考えられる.
一方,対流系発生の周期は,西進する渦擾乱に伴う
水蒸気量の極大とよく対応していた.その渦擾乱は,
2-5日の周期を持ち,対流系の発生周期と一致している.
すなわち,西進する渦擾乱に伴う水蒸気供給と,
海面水温前線に強制された定常的な下層収束が,
MJOを構成する対流系の主要な形成要因である.
15A.5 Drastic Thickening of the Barrier Layer Off the Western Coast of Sumatr...耕作 茂木
Qoosaku Moteki, Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka city, Japan; and K. Yoneyama, M. Katsumata, K. Ando, and T. Hasegawa
The drastic thickening of the barrier layer in the marginal sea off the western coast of Sumatra during the passage of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) observed during December 2015 is investigated. Before the MJO arrival, the halocline above 20 m depth was very strong and the barrier layer thickness was 5-10 m from based on R/V Mirai observations. During the MJO forcing of 13-16 December, the isothermal layer was drastically deepened from 20 m to 100 m. Meanwhile, the mixed layer deepening was lagged behind the isothermal layer deepening by 1 day, and the barrier layer underwent dramatic thickening to 60 m within 24 hours. An evaluation of the vertical salinity gradient tendency showed that the dramatic thickening of the barrier layer was due to the vertical oceanic mixing by the atmospheric MJO forcing and the vertical stretching by the oceanic downwelling coastal Kelvin wave intruding from the open ocean. One of the important factors in the drastic barrier layer thickening was concluded to be the atmospheric external forcing and the oceanic internal wave being in-phase. The downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave continuously lowered the thermocline from the middle of November to the end of December, and the salinity stratification in the vicinity of the thermocline was continuously mitigated by the vertical stretching. Under such conditions, the MJO forcing caused vertical mixing of the freshwater with the strong salinity stratification and temperature stratification near the surface. The combination of the two distinct processes caused the drastic thickening of the barrier layer, and the barrier layer thickness reached a maximum of 85 m 5 days after the MJO arrival.
The document discusses how the barrier layer off the western coast of Sumatra drastically deepened due to the passage of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the Pre-YMC period. The barrier layer thickness increased from 5m to 60m within one day and up to 85m over five days, which had never been observed before. This drastic deepening was caused by vertical mixing from the MJO forcing and downwelling of the thermocline by an oceanic Kelvin wave occurring in phase with the MJO. High-frequency observations are needed to better understand the ocean's response and role in rainfall formation during MJO events.
Kim, H. M., D. Kim, F. Vitart, V. E. Toma, J. S. Kug, and P. J. Webster, 2016:
MJO Propagation across the Maritime Continent in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System.
J. Climate, 29, 3973-3988.
JAMSTEC MJO research seminar
Youtube video of seminar discussion at JAMSTEC
http://youtu.be/c3N9bu7zOew
Title:
Initiation process of convective systems
observed along a SST front over the Indian Ocean
- The initiation of the MJO in the late October 2011 -
Abstract:
Characteristics of 2-5 day period disturbances
observed in October 2011 over the Indian Ocean were investigated.
Convective systems of which the MJO in October 2011 consisted
were generating along a SST front around 5S-10S
before and during the onset of the MJO in the late October.
The SST front was maintained for more than months between 40-100E.
The surface convergence were continuously formed
along the SST front and convective systems were repeatedly generated there.
Such repeated generation of convection along the SST front
was considered to contribute on charge
and integration of the moisture for the onset of the MJO.
発表者:茂木耕作 氏
日時 :10月29日(火)15:30-16:30
場所 :海洋科学技術館2階 会議室
タイトル:
インド洋の海面水温前線上での対流初期形成過程
~CINDY2011で捉えられたMJOの発生~
要旨:
CINDY2011期間の10月下旬に発生したMJOを対象に
対流の初期形成過程を調べた.南緯5-10度で
繰り返し発生していた対流系発生は,
東西に伸びる海面水温前線上に一致していた.
本研究の目的は,MJOの発生前後において対流系が
この海面水温前線上で繰り返し発生し続けた原因を解明することである.
この海面水温前線は,MJOの発生前後1ヶ月間,
南緯5-10度付近で維持され続けていた.
風速の変動に関わらず,大気下層の収束線が継続的に形成される.
この前線に伴う定常的な下層収束が,
対流系が継続的に発生する第一の要因であると考えられる.
一方,対流系発生の周期は,西進する渦擾乱に伴う
水蒸気量の極大とよく対応していた.その渦擾乱は,
2-5日の周期を持ち,対流系の発生周期と一致している.
すなわち,西進する渦擾乱に伴う水蒸気供給と,
海面水温前線に強制された定常的な下層収束が,
MJOを構成する対流系の主要な形成要因である.
15A.5 Drastic Thickening of the Barrier Layer Off the Western Coast of Sumatr...耕作 茂木
Qoosaku Moteki, Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka city, Japan; and K. Yoneyama, M. Katsumata, K. Ando, and T. Hasegawa
The drastic thickening of the barrier layer in the marginal sea off the western coast of Sumatra during the passage of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) observed during December 2015 is investigated. Before the MJO arrival, the halocline above 20 m depth was very strong and the barrier layer thickness was 5-10 m from based on R/V Mirai observations. During the MJO forcing of 13-16 December, the isothermal layer was drastically deepened from 20 m to 100 m. Meanwhile, the mixed layer deepening was lagged behind the isothermal layer deepening by 1 day, and the barrier layer underwent dramatic thickening to 60 m within 24 hours. An evaluation of the vertical salinity gradient tendency showed that the dramatic thickening of the barrier layer was due to the vertical oceanic mixing by the atmospheric MJO forcing and the vertical stretching by the oceanic downwelling coastal Kelvin wave intruding from the open ocean. One of the important factors in the drastic barrier layer thickening was concluded to be the atmospheric external forcing and the oceanic internal wave being in-phase. The downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave continuously lowered the thermocline from the middle of November to the end of December, and the salinity stratification in the vicinity of the thermocline was continuously mitigated by the vertical stretching. Under such conditions, the MJO forcing caused vertical mixing of the freshwater with the strong salinity stratification and temperature stratification near the surface. The combination of the two distinct processes caused the drastic thickening of the barrier layer, and the barrier layer thickness reached a maximum of 85 m 5 days after the MJO arrival.
The document discusses how the barrier layer off the western coast of Sumatra drastically deepened due to the passage of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the Pre-YMC period. The barrier layer thickness increased from 5m to 60m within one day and up to 85m over five days, which had never been observed before. This drastic deepening was caused by vertical mixing from the MJO forcing and downwelling of the thermocline by an oceanic Kelvin wave occurring in phase with the MJO. High-frequency observations are needed to better understand the ocean's response and role in rainfall formation during MJO events.
Kim, H. M., D. Kim, F. Vitart, V. E. Toma, J. S. Kug, and P. J. Webster, 2016:
MJO Propagation across the Maritime Continent in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System.
J. Climate, 29, 3973-3988.