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Property market chart pack – November 2019
218 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Residential Real Estate Underpins Australia’s Wealth
As at the end of October 2019
Residential Real Estate
$6.7 Trillion
Australian Superannuation
$2.9 Trillion
Australian Listed Stocks
$2.0 Trillion
Commercial Real Estate
$1.0 Trillion
10.3 million
Number of
dwellings
$1.80 trillion
Outstanding
mortgage debt
386,498
Total sales p.a.
51.5%
Household wealth
held in housing
$248.7 billion
Gross value of
sales p.a.
Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA, ABS
318 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
5.0%
5.5%
1.1%
0.1%
-1.7%
1.0%
-1.2%
2.4%
0.6%
0.5%
1.1%
-1.7%
-3.8%
1.4%
-0.1%
3.6%
0.5%
2.9%
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Regional NSW
Regional Vic
Regional Qld
Regional SA
Regional WA
Regional Tas
Regional NT
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
National
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Oct-91 Oct-98 Oct-05 Oct-12 Oct-19
Combined capitals Combined regionals
National dwelling values recorded their fourth consecutive month
of growth in October, taking dwelling values 2.9% higher over the
quarter
Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to Oct-19
Source: CoreLogic
418 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-2.5%
-1.0%
-1.3%
-0.9%
-8.7%
2.6%
-9.2%
2.0%
-2.8%
-0.9%
-0.3%
0.8%
-11.1%
4.2%
1.1%
-2.4%
-1.9%
-2.3%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Regional NSW
Regional Vic
Regional Qld
Regional SA
Regional WA
Regional Tas
Regional NT
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
National
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Oct-84 Oct-91 Oct-98 Oct-05 Oct-12 Oct-19
Combined capitals Combined regionals
The annual rate of decline in housing values saw further
improvement in October across each of the broad regions
Annual change in dwelling values Annual change in dwelling values to Oct-19
Source: CoreLogic
518 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-0.6%
-1.3%
-1.7%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.6%
-2.6%
-2.7%
-2.6%
-2.2%
-2.7%
-2.6%
-2.8%
-2.4%
-2.6%
-2.5%
-2.6%
-2.7%
-2.3%
-2.1%
-0.9%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.7%
-2.3%
-3.0%
-3.7%
-4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1%
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
Regional markets Combined capital cities National
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Quarterly change Annual change
The most expensive dwellings have recorded the largest decline
over the past twelve months, but are also recording the most
rapid recovery
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values by deciles,
National as at October 2019
Annual change in dwelling values by decile,
October-19
Source: CoreLogic
618 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-1.0%
-1.3%
-0.9%
-8.7%
-2.5%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19
Annual change in dwellingvalues
Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Sydney
2.6%
-9.2%
2.0%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19
Annual change in dwellingvalues
Hobart Darwin Canberra
Although values are still broadly trending lower on an annual
basis, the annual rate of decline has levelled or started to ease
across most cities
Source: CoreLogic
718 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-11%
-6%
-1%
4%
9%
14%
19%
24%
Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19
Quarterly change
Annual change
Sydney dwelling
values increased by
1.7% in October and
by 5.0% over the
three months to
October 2019. Sydney
dwelling values have
fallen by -2.5% over
the past year and they
are currently -10.4%
lower than their July
2017 peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Sydney
Source: CoreLogic
818 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-11%
-6%
-1%
4%
9%
14%
19%
24%
Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19
Quarterly change
Annual change
Melbourne dwelling
values increased by 2.3%
in October and by 5.5%
over the three months to
October 2019.
Melbourne dwelling
values have fallen by -
1.0% over the past year
and they are currently
-5.8% lower than their
November 2017 peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Melbourne
Source: CoreLogic
918 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-11%
-6%
-1%
4%
9%
14%
19%
24%
29%
34%
Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19
Quarterly change
Annual change
Brisbane dwelling values
increased by 0.8% in
October, and they were
1.1% higher over the
three months to October
2019. Brisbane dwelling
values have fallen by
-1.3% over the past year
and they are currently
-1.6% lower than their
April 2018 peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Brisbane
Source: CoreLogic
1018 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-11%
-6%
-1%
4%
9%
14%
19%
24%
Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19
Quarterly change
Annual change
Adelaide dwelling values
increased by 0.4% in
October and they were
0.1% higher over the
three months to October
2019. Adelaide dwelling
values have fallen by
-0.9% over the past year
and they are currently
-1.2% lower than their
December 2018 peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Adelaide
Source: CoreLogic
1118 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19
Quarterly change
Annual change Perth dwelling values fell
by -0.4% in October and
they were -1.7% lower
over the three months to
October 2019. Perth
dwelling values have fallen
by -8.7% over the past
year and they are
currently -21.6% lower
than their June 2014 peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Perth
Source: CoreLogic
1218 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19
Quarterly change
Annual change
Hobart dwelling values
rose by 0.9% in October
and they were 1.0%
higher over the three
months to October 2019.
Hobart dwelling values
have increased by 2.6%
over the past year and
they are currently 0.2%
higher than their earlier
March 2019 peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Hobart
Source: CoreLogic
1318 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19
Quarterly change
Annual change
Darwin dwelling values
increased by 0.3% in
October 2019 and they
were -1.2% lower over
the three months to
October 2019. Darwin
dwelling values have
fallen by -9.2% over the
past year and they are
currently -30.6% lower
than their May 2014
peak.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Darwin
Source: CoreLogic
1418 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19
Quarterly change
Annual change
Canberra dwelling values
increased by 0.6% in
October, and they were
2.4% higher over the
three months to October
2019. Canberra dwelling
values have increased by
2.0% over the past year
and they are 0.9% higher
than the previous April
19 peak in value.
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Canberra
Source: CoreLogic
1518 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Oct 99 Oct 01 Oct 03 Oct 05 Oct 07 Oct 09 Oct 11 Oct 13 Oct 15 Oct 17 Oct 19
Monthly sales with six month moving average, National
-6.8%
-15.9%
-13.3%
-3.6%
-4.5%
-7.1%
4.2%
-9.2%
-11.2%
-15.3%
-12.0%
-2.7%
-2.1%
-12.3%
-4.1%
-10.1%
-11.5%
-10.5%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Regional NSW
Regional Vic
Regional Qld
Regional SA
Regional WA
Regional Tas
Regional NT
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
National
Year on year change in settled sales
While the number of settled sales is much lower than a
year ago, the recent trend is showing a pick-up in buyer
activity
Source: CoreLogic
Decade average
1618 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-1.8%
1.2%
1.8%
2.0%
2.4%
6.1%
-2.6%
-0.6%
1.8%
3.3%
2.9%
1.0%
3.0%
5.7%
-0.9%
0.2%
2.5%
0.8%
-6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Regional NSW
Regional Vic
Regional Qld
Regional SA
Regional WA
Regional Tas
Regional NT
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
National
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19
National rental rates were flat over the month to October,
however the annual rate of rental growth is still trending
slightly higher
Annual change in rental rates - National Annual change in rental rates to Oct-19
Source: CoreLogic
1718 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
3.2%
3.4%
4.6%
4.4%
4.3%
5.2%
5.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
5.4%
5.8%
6.1%
5.4%
7.1%
3.6%
5.1%
3.9%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Regional NSW
Regional Vic
Regional Qld
Regional SA
Regional WA
Regional Tas
Regional NT
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
National
3.5%
3.7%
3.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.5%
4.7%
4.9%
5.1%
Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19
With dwelling values now trending higher and rents
generally soft, rental yields are once again trending lower
Gross rental yields - National Gross rental yields as at Oct-19
Source: CoreLogic
1818 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19
Combined capitals
Combined regional markets
38
32
59
53
60
26
78
33
70
50
68
92
71
45
80
42
65
51
44
33
38
49
57
11
68
35
59
35
50
98
81
30
70
40
51
43
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Regional NSW
Regional Vic
Regional Qld
Regional SA
Regional WA
Regional Tas
Regional NT
Combined capital cities
Combined regionals
National
Oct 19
Oct 18
The median selling time has trended lower over the
October quarter across both the Combined capital cities and
Combined regional markets as market conditions improve
Median days on market Median days on market Oct-19 v Oct 18
Source: CoreLogic
1918 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19
Combined capitals
Combined regional markets
-4.4%
-4.4%
-4.6%
-5.6%
-6.3%
-3.2%
-9.3%
-3.3%
-5.0%
-4.7%
-5.8%
-5.9%
-7.7%
-3.8%
-5.0%
-5.0%
-5.2%
-5.1%
-6.2%
-4.9%
-4.5%
-5.1%
-6.7%
-3.4%
-7.0%
-2.3%
-4.7%
-3.8%
-5.3%
-5.9%
-8.0%
-4.0%
-4.8%
-5.3%
-4.8%
-5.1%
-12%-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Regional NSW
Regional Vic
Regional Qld
Regional SA
Regional WA
Regional Tas
Regional NT
Combined capital cities
Combined regionals
National
Oct 19
Oct 18
Vendor discounting rates are continuing to ease as buyers
lose some leverage
Median vendor discount Median vendor discount Oct-19 v Oct-18
Source: CoreLogic
2018 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
State
No of new
listings
1
2
m
No of total
listings
NSW 11,571 47,094
Vic 11,640 47,608
Qld 8,847 58,651
SA 3,219 17,142
WA 4,847 29,996
Tas 951 4,168
NT 197 2,052
ACT 834 2,463
National 42,106 209,174
Capital city
No of new
listings
N
e
w
No of total
listings
Sydney 7,061 23,549
Melbourne 8,320 31,413
Brisbane 4,033 19,549
Adelaide 2,356 8,472
Perth 3,548 18,046
Hobart 359 1,008
Darwin 157 1,380
Canberra 814 2,361
Combined
Capitals
26,648 105,778
-9.6%
-14.6%
-14.0%
0.6%
-14.4%
-12.9%
-11.3%
-13.8%
-12.0%
-14.3%
-11.2%
-9.2%
-1.5%
-11.4%
-11.0%
0.4%
-2.4%
-10.5%
NSW
Vic
Qld
SA
WA
Tas
NT
ACT
National
Total Listings
New Listings
-6.6%
-15.8%
-12.2%
0.9%
-16.0%
-15.3%
-9.2%
-12.8%
-11.5%
-22.5%
-14.0%
-8.5%
0.5%
-13.6%
-8.9%
-3.8%
-1.9%
-13.7%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined Capitals
Total Listings
New Listings
While the volume of
stock for sale remains
lower than it was a year
ago, the decline in listings
is starting to ease with
-12% fewer newly
advertised properties
year-on-year
Source: CoreLogic
Number of new and total properties advertised for sale,
28 days to 27 October 2019
12 month change: new and total properties advertised for sale
2118 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19
Numberofauctions
Clearancerate
Weekly clearance rates, combined capital cities
Auction markets have strengthened with clearance rates
remaining above 70% for most week’s since mid-Sept and
volumes trending higher through spring
Source: CoreLogic
2218 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Housing demand: High migration rates are continuing to push the
national population higher, with growth of 1.6% over the 12
months ending March 2019
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
2318 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Sep-89 Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19
Houses Units
Number of dwellings approved for construction, National
Approved housing supply has been trending lower since
late 2017, roughly in line with the peak in housing values
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
2418 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
4.8%
-0.1%0%
3%
5%
8%
10%
13%
15%
Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-19
Annual change in credit, owner occupier v investor
Owner occupier housing Investment housing
22.4%
15%
25%
35%
45%
Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jun-19
% of mortgages settled with an LVR 80%+
45.6%
15.8%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jun-19
% of mortgages originated on
interest-only terms
Housing credit is expanding at an historically slow pace with
investment credit growth falling in July and August
Source: CoreLogic, RBA, APRA
2518 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
$13.6
$4.9
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
Aug03
Aug05
Aug07
Aug09
Aug11
Aug13
Aug15
Aug17
Aug19
$billion
Monthly value of new housing
finance commitments, National
Owner occupiers
Investors
26.5%
34.3%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Aug03
Aug05
Aug07
Aug09
Aug11
Aug13
Aug15
Aug17
Aug19
New investor lending share of total
new lending (ex refinances)
The value of lending
to both investors and
owner occupiers
increased in August,
with the value of
owner occupier
loans up 1.9% and
investor loans up a
higher 5.7%,
however investors
still comprise a lower
than average share
of mortgage demand
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
2618 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Aug 03 Aug 05 Aug 07 Aug 09 Aug 11 Aug 13 Aug 15 Aug 17 Aug 19
First home buyers as a % of all owner occupier housing finance
commitments
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas
28.1%
32.8%
27.2%
22.3%
37.4%
24.4%
45.0%
28.0%
NSW
Vic
Qld
SA
WA
Tas
NT
ACT
First home buyers have been a key source of housing
demand due to improved affordability, less competition
from investors, low mortgage rates and incentives
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
2718 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Aug03
Aug07
Aug11
Aug15
Aug19
NSW
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Aug03
Aug07
Aug11
Aug15
Aug19
Vic
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Aug03
Aug07
Aug11
Aug15
Aug19
Qld
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Aug03
Aug07
Aug11
Aug15
Aug19
SA
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Aug03
Aug07
Aug11
Aug15
Aug19
WA
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Aug03
Aug07
Aug11
Aug15
Aug19
Tas
32.0%
26.7%
19.2% 21.5%
15.3%
23.4% 23.4% 24.4%
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT
Investors as a % of total value of lending (excluding refinances)
Investor housing finance commitments by states as a share of total commitments (excluding refinances)
Investor activity has faded over the past couple of years in
each state and territory and is yet to show a rebound
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
2818 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
4.15
3.48
3.3
3.8
4.3
4.8
Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct 19
Investormortgageratepremium
Owner Occupier Investor
55
5.00 7.00
10.38
17.00
9.62
5.76
7.79
4.80
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Oct-1959 Oct-1969 Oct-1979 Oct-1989 Oct-1999 Oct-2009 Oct-2019
Standard variablemortgagerates over time
4.80
4.15
3.10
5.38
4.73
3.48
Variable; Standard
Variable; Discounted
3-year fixed
Variable; Standard
Variable; Discounted
3-year fixed
Owner
occupierInvestor
Avg mortgagerateby producttype,
October 2019 (%)
With the cash rate falling by 75 basis points between June
and October 2019, mortgage rates are tracking at the
lowest level since the 1950’s
Source: CoreLogic, RBA
2918 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Disclaimer
In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes
liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this
publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.
Queensland Data
Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2019. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and agree that the State gives no warranty in relation
to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the
data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.
South Australian Data
This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information
or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data.
New South Wales Data
Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.
Victorian Data
The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968
(Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility
or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied.
Western Australian Data
Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2019) trading as Landgate.
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The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or
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b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.
Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au
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Monthly Property Market and Economic Update November 2019

  • 1. Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack – November 2019
  • 2. 218 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Residential Real Estate Underpins Australia’s Wealth As at the end of October 2019 Residential Real Estate $6.7 Trillion Australian Superannuation $2.9 Trillion Australian Listed Stocks $2.0 Trillion Commercial Real Estate $1.0 Trillion 10.3 million Number of dwellings $1.80 trillion Outstanding mortgage debt 386,498 Total sales p.a. 51.5% Household wealth held in housing $248.7 billion Gross value of sales p.a. Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA, ABS
  • 3. 318 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5.0% 5.5% 1.1% 0.1% -1.7% 1.0% -1.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.5% 1.1% -1.7% -3.8% 1.4% -0.1% 3.6% 0.5% 2.9% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Regional NSW Regional Vic Regional Qld Regional SA Regional WA Regional Tas Regional NT Combined capitals Combined regionals National -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Oct-91 Oct-98 Oct-05 Oct-12 Oct-19 Combined capitals Combined regionals National dwelling values recorded their fourth consecutive month of growth in October, taking dwelling values 2.9% higher over the quarter Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to Oct-19 Source: CoreLogic
  • 4. 418 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -2.5% -1.0% -1.3% -0.9% -8.7% 2.6% -9.2% 2.0% -2.8% -0.9% -0.3% 0.8% -11.1% 4.2% 1.1% -2.4% -1.9% -2.3% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Regional NSW Regional Vic Regional Qld Regional SA Regional WA Regional Tas Regional NT Combined capitals Combined regionals National -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Oct-84 Oct-91 Oct-98 Oct-05 Oct-12 Oct-19 Combined capitals Combined regionals The annual rate of decline in housing values saw further improvement in October across each of the broad regions Annual change in dwelling values Annual change in dwelling values to Oct-19 Source: CoreLogic
  • 5. 518 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -0.6% -1.3% -1.7% -2.3% -2.3% -2.6% -2.6% -2.7% -2.6% -2.2% -2.7% -2.6% -2.8% -2.4% -2.6% -2.5% -2.6% -2.7% -2.3% -2.1% -0.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.7% -2.3% -3.0% -3.7% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Regional markets Combined capital cities National -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Quarterly change Annual change The most expensive dwellings have recorded the largest decline over the past twelve months, but are also recording the most rapid recovery Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values by deciles, National as at October 2019 Annual change in dwelling values by decile, October-19 Source: CoreLogic
  • 6. 618 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -1.0% -1.3% -0.9% -8.7% -2.5% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19 Annual change in dwellingvalues Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Sydney 2.6% -9.2% 2.0% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19 Annual change in dwellingvalues Hobart Darwin Canberra Although values are still broadly trending lower on an annual basis, the annual rate of decline has levelled or started to ease across most cities Source: CoreLogic
  • 7. 718 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 24% Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19 Quarterly change Annual change Sydney dwelling values increased by 1.7% in October and by 5.0% over the three months to October 2019. Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -2.5% over the past year and they are currently -10.4% lower than their July 2017 peak. Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Sydney Source: CoreLogic
  • 8. 818 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 24% Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19 Quarterly change Annual change Melbourne dwelling values increased by 2.3% in October and by 5.5% over the three months to October 2019. Melbourne dwelling values have fallen by - 1.0% over the past year and they are currently -5.8% lower than their November 2017 peak. Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Melbourne Source: CoreLogic
  • 9. 918 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 24% 29% 34% Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19 Quarterly change Annual change Brisbane dwelling values increased by 0.8% in October, and they were 1.1% higher over the three months to October 2019. Brisbane dwelling values have fallen by -1.3% over the past year and they are currently -1.6% lower than their April 2018 peak. Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Brisbane Source: CoreLogic
  • 10. 1018 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 24% Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19 Quarterly change Annual change Adelaide dwelling values increased by 0.4% in October and they were 0.1% higher over the three months to October 2019. Adelaide dwelling values have fallen by -0.9% over the past year and they are currently -1.2% lower than their December 2018 peak. Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Adelaide Source: CoreLogic
  • 11. 1118 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19 Quarterly change Annual change Perth dwelling values fell by -0.4% in October and they were -1.7% lower over the three months to October 2019. Perth dwelling values have fallen by -8.7% over the past year and they are currently -21.6% lower than their June 2014 peak. Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Perth Source: CoreLogic
  • 12. 1218 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19 Quarterly change Annual change Hobart dwelling values rose by 0.9% in October and they were 1.0% higher over the three months to October 2019. Hobart dwelling values have increased by 2.6% over the past year and they are currently 0.2% higher than their earlier March 2019 peak. Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Hobart Source: CoreLogic
  • 13. 1318 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19 Quarterly change Annual change Darwin dwelling values increased by 0.3% in October 2019 and they were -1.2% lower over the three months to October 2019. Darwin dwelling values have fallen by -9.2% over the past year and they are currently -30.6% lower than their May 2014 peak. Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Darwin Source: CoreLogic
  • 14. 1418 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Oct-94 Oct-99 Oct-04 Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-19 Quarterly change Annual change Canberra dwelling values increased by 0.6% in October, and they were 2.4% higher over the three months to October 2019. Canberra dwelling values have increased by 2.0% over the past year and they are 0.9% higher than the previous April 19 peak in value. Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Canberra Source: CoreLogic
  • 15. 1518 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Oct 99 Oct 01 Oct 03 Oct 05 Oct 07 Oct 09 Oct 11 Oct 13 Oct 15 Oct 17 Oct 19 Monthly sales with six month moving average, National -6.8% -15.9% -13.3% -3.6% -4.5% -7.1% 4.2% -9.2% -11.2% -15.3% -12.0% -2.7% -2.1% -12.3% -4.1% -10.1% -11.5% -10.5% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Regional NSW Regional Vic Regional Qld Regional SA Regional WA Regional Tas Regional NT Combined capitals Combined regionals National Year on year change in settled sales While the number of settled sales is much lower than a year ago, the recent trend is showing a pick-up in buyer activity Source: CoreLogic Decade average
  • 16. 1618 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -1.8% 1.2% 1.8% 2.0% 2.4% 6.1% -2.6% -0.6% 1.8% 3.3% 2.9% 1.0% 3.0% 5.7% -0.9% 0.2% 2.5% 0.8% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Regional NSW Regional Vic Regional Qld Regional SA Regional WA Regional Tas Regional NT Combined capitals Combined regionals National 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19 National rental rates were flat over the month to October, however the annual rate of rental growth is still trending slightly higher Annual change in rental rates - National Annual change in rental rates to Oct-19 Source: CoreLogic
  • 17. 1718 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3.2% 3.4% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 5.2% 5.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 5.4% 5.8% 6.1% 5.4% 7.1% 3.6% 5.1% 3.9% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Regional NSW Regional Vic Regional Qld Regional SA Regional WA Regional Tas Regional NT Combined capitals Combined regionals National 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.7% 4.9% 5.1% Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19 With dwelling values now trending higher and rents generally soft, rental yields are once again trending lower Gross rental yields - National Gross rental yields as at Oct-19 Source: CoreLogic
  • 18. 1818 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19 Combined capitals Combined regional markets 38 32 59 53 60 26 78 33 70 50 68 92 71 45 80 42 65 51 44 33 38 49 57 11 68 35 59 35 50 98 81 30 70 40 51 43 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Regional NSW Regional Vic Regional Qld Regional SA Regional WA Regional Tas Regional NT Combined capital cities Combined regionals National Oct 19 Oct 18 The median selling time has trended lower over the October quarter across both the Combined capital cities and Combined regional markets as market conditions improve Median days on market Median days on market Oct-19 v Oct 18 Source: CoreLogic
  • 19. 1918 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19 Combined capitals Combined regional markets -4.4% -4.4% -4.6% -5.6% -6.3% -3.2% -9.3% -3.3% -5.0% -4.7% -5.8% -5.9% -7.7% -3.8% -5.0% -5.0% -5.2% -5.1% -6.2% -4.9% -4.5% -5.1% -6.7% -3.4% -7.0% -2.3% -4.7% -3.8% -5.3% -5.9% -8.0% -4.0% -4.8% -5.3% -4.8% -5.1% -12%-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Regional NSW Regional Vic Regional Qld Regional SA Regional WA Regional Tas Regional NT Combined capital cities Combined regionals National Oct 19 Oct 18 Vendor discounting rates are continuing to ease as buyers lose some leverage Median vendor discount Median vendor discount Oct-19 v Oct-18 Source: CoreLogic
  • 20. 2018 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. State No of new listings 1 2 m No of total listings NSW 11,571 47,094 Vic 11,640 47,608 Qld 8,847 58,651 SA 3,219 17,142 WA 4,847 29,996 Tas 951 4,168 NT 197 2,052 ACT 834 2,463 National 42,106 209,174 Capital city No of new listings N e w No of total listings Sydney 7,061 23,549 Melbourne 8,320 31,413 Brisbane 4,033 19,549 Adelaide 2,356 8,472 Perth 3,548 18,046 Hobart 359 1,008 Darwin 157 1,380 Canberra 814 2,361 Combined Capitals 26,648 105,778 -9.6% -14.6% -14.0% 0.6% -14.4% -12.9% -11.3% -13.8% -12.0% -14.3% -11.2% -9.2% -1.5% -11.4% -11.0% 0.4% -2.4% -10.5% NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT National Total Listings New Listings -6.6% -15.8% -12.2% 0.9% -16.0% -15.3% -9.2% -12.8% -11.5% -22.5% -14.0% -8.5% 0.5% -13.6% -8.9% -3.8% -1.9% -13.7% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Combined Capitals Total Listings New Listings While the volume of stock for sale remains lower than it was a year ago, the decline in listings is starting to ease with -12% fewer newly advertised properties year-on-year Source: CoreLogic Number of new and total properties advertised for sale, 28 days to 27 October 2019 12 month change: new and total properties advertised for sale
  • 21. 2118 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13 Oct-15 Oct-17 Oct-19 Numberofauctions Clearancerate Weekly clearance rates, combined capital cities Auction markets have strengthened with clearance rates remaining above 70% for most week’s since mid-Sept and volumes trending higher through spring Source: CoreLogic
  • 22. 2218 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Housing demand: High migration rates are continuing to push the national population higher, with growth of 1.6% over the 12 months ending March 2019 Source: CoreLogic, ABS
  • 23. 2318 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Sep-89 Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19 Houses Units Number of dwellings approved for construction, National Approved housing supply has been trending lower since late 2017, roughly in line with the peak in housing values Source: CoreLogic, ABS
  • 24. 2418 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4.8% -0.1%0% 3% 5% 8% 10% 13% 15% Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-19 Annual change in credit, owner occupier v investor Owner occupier housing Investment housing 22.4% 15% 25% 35% 45% Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jun-19 % of mortgages settled with an LVR 80%+ 45.6% 15.8% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jun-19 % of mortgages originated on interest-only terms Housing credit is expanding at an historically slow pace with investment credit growth falling in July and August Source: CoreLogic, RBA, APRA
  • 25. 2518 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. $13.6 $4.9 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 Aug03 Aug05 Aug07 Aug09 Aug11 Aug13 Aug15 Aug17 Aug19 $billion Monthly value of new housing finance commitments, National Owner occupiers Investors 26.5% 34.3% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Aug03 Aug05 Aug07 Aug09 Aug11 Aug13 Aug15 Aug17 Aug19 New investor lending share of total new lending (ex refinances) The value of lending to both investors and owner occupiers increased in August, with the value of owner occupier loans up 1.9% and investor loans up a higher 5.7%, however investors still comprise a lower than average share of mortgage demand Source: CoreLogic, ABS
  • 26. 2618 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Aug 03 Aug 05 Aug 07 Aug 09 Aug 11 Aug 13 Aug 15 Aug 17 Aug 19 First home buyers as a % of all owner occupier housing finance commitments NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas 28.1% 32.8% 27.2% 22.3% 37.4% 24.4% 45.0% 28.0% NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT First home buyers have been a key source of housing demand due to improved affordability, less competition from investors, low mortgage rates and incentives Source: CoreLogic, ABS
  • 27. 2718 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Aug03 Aug07 Aug11 Aug15 Aug19 NSW 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Aug03 Aug07 Aug11 Aug15 Aug19 Vic 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Aug03 Aug07 Aug11 Aug15 Aug19 Qld 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Aug03 Aug07 Aug11 Aug15 Aug19 SA 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Aug03 Aug07 Aug11 Aug15 Aug19 WA 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Aug03 Aug07 Aug11 Aug15 Aug19 Tas 32.0% 26.7% 19.2% 21.5% 15.3% 23.4% 23.4% 24.4% NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Investors as a % of total value of lending (excluding refinances) Investor housing finance commitments by states as a share of total commitments (excluding refinances) Investor activity has faded over the past couple of years in each state and territory and is yet to show a rebound Source: CoreLogic, ABS
  • 28. 2818 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4.15 3.48 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.8 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Investormortgageratepremium Owner Occupier Investor 55 5.00 7.00 10.38 17.00 9.62 5.76 7.79 4.80 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Oct-1959 Oct-1969 Oct-1979 Oct-1989 Oct-1999 Oct-2009 Oct-2019 Standard variablemortgagerates over time 4.80 4.15 3.10 5.38 4.73 3.48 Variable; Standard Variable; Discounted 3-year fixed Variable; Standard Variable; Discounted 3-year fixed Owner occupierInvestor Avg mortgagerateby producttype, October 2019 (%) With the cash rate falling by 75 basis points between June and October 2019, mortgage rates are tracking at the lowest level since the 1950’s Source: CoreLogic, RBA
  • 29. 2918 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Disclaimer In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information. Queensland Data Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2019. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws. South Australian Data This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data. New South Wales Data Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI. Victorian Data The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied. Western Australian Data Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2019) trading as Landgate. Australian Capital Territory Data The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601. Tasmanian Data This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents: a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data. Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au
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