2. Agenda
1. Cooler investment outlook in the world
2. Mongolian economic outlook
3. Mongolia’s Achilles tendon
4. Doing business in Mongolia
5. Mongolia investment outlook
6. Railway
7. Oyu tolgoi / Tavan tolgoi
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21. Rating Agencies are starting to worry
Rating agencies’ concerns:
Heavily dependent on mineral exports
Pro-cyclical fiscal policy may lead to overheating in Mongolia
Fiscal discipline and external borrowing
Factors that could change the rating down:
High inflation
Weak fiscal policy framework
Uncertainty in Mongolia’s investment regime
Excess external borrowings
Source: Khan Bank Presentation
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22. What will be the measures Government
should take?
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35. Why so much cheaper than Mongolia Rail?
• Super efficient Australia & Mozambique &
Brazil
• 0.5 cents to 1.5 cents per rail ton-km
• Ultra low ocean ship rates @ ~ 0.02 cents per ocean
mile
• Versus planned UBTZ and MTZ rail rates at ~ 3
cents per ton-km plus rail gauge interchange
costs per ton
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36. 7. What kind of economic impacts are expected in case
current situation continues?
Impact of OT and TT are huge
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