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You Had One Thing to Do…
An Analysis of Putney CC Stats
Seasons 2006 to 2020 unless otherwise stated
Weekend & Midweek Games, excludes tours, Slam & PSV
Source: PCC Website
Who’s the Biggest Tosser?
The Saturday 2’s skipper has been the best tosser: wins 55% of the time
Saturday 1’s skippers need to take a long, hard look at themselves: a mere 45%
Sunday 3’s skip has made a good start, but the statistical significance is dubious.
We suspect midweek skippers are colluding!
Since 2006
Count of Opponent Column Labels
Row Labels Saturday 1st Saturday 2nd Saturday 3rd Sunday 1st Sunday 2nd Sunday 3rd Midweek Grand Total
Lose 55% 45% 48% 49% 48% 38% 39% 49%
Win 45% 55% 52% 51% 52% 63% 61% 51%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
You’ve won the toss, what next?
Season (Multiple Items)
Team (Multiple Items)
Count of Opponent Column Labels
Row Labels FALSE TRUE
Lose 55% 45%
Win 45% 55%
Bat first, you dummy!
55% of the time, the skipper who wins the toss bats first
NB since 2017, from when the bat first data is reliable
Winning the toss helps
The team that wins the toss, wins the game:
53% of the time.
Since records began in 2006
Count of Opponent Column Labels
Row Labels Win WinDraw Tie Draw LoseDraw Lose
Lose 49% 2% 1% 4% 2% 42%
Win 53% 1% 0% 1% 2% 42%
Grand Total 51% 2% 1% 3% 2% 42%
You had one thing to do…
Win the toss and bat first, you dummy!
How hard is that to understand?
• Win toss & bat first, PCC win 64%/33% win/loss
• Win the toss & field, wins 58/37
• Lose toss & we bat first, we win 44/42
• Lose toss & they bat first, we win 54/42
Batting second, PCC chases it down 53% of the time.
But loses 42% of games
slight evidence of Aussie-style choking.
Since decent bat first records were kept from 2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FALSE TRUE FALSE TRUE
Lose Win
%ofResultsfsince2017
Did Putney CC Win the Toss?
Lose
LoseDraw
Draw
Tie
WinDraw
Win
TRUE = PCC batted first
We’ve had a good run of results
More games won from the 2014 trough.
Looks like we played for fun in 2020!
Excludes abandoned games
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
%ofthatSeason'sResults
Season
Lose
LoseDraw
Tie
Draw
WinDraw
Win
More runs scored recently
The data is noisy but:
• Season average match aggregate runs in each
season (ie theirs and ours combined) have been
rising since 2017, especially at home this year.
• Scores at home at not different from those away
• Bowlers have been taking 15 to 16 wickets per
match on average since time immemorial!
• Match runs on left-hand axis, wickets on the right
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
AverageMatchAggregateWickets
AverageMatchAggregateRuns
Season
Away - Average ofMatch Aggregate Runs
Home - Average ofMatch Aggregate Runs
Away - Average ofMatch Aggregate Wickets
Home - Average ofMatch Aggregate Wickets
Putney Batting
The graph shows average Putney team score each season:
• Sat 1’s scores seem to have been declining for a long time
• Sat 2’s are on the up
• The Tushar and Amogh effect?
• The Sunday teams are duking it out for bragging rights
• Sun 2’s very variable
• A young side still trying to find their best batting order?
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Saturday 1st
Saturday 2nd
Sunday 1st
Sunday 2nd
What’s a winning score Putney batting first?
Graph shows scores where a PCC team batted first, home or away:
• We won having scored less than 160, 12 of 44 times since 2017
• We won 13 times in 22 games having scored 161-180
• We won 14 times in 22 games scoring 181-200
• We only lost 6 of 62 games in which we batted first & scored >200
0
1
2
3
4
67
106
120
125
138
145
151
156
161
167
175
179
183
190
196
202
209
214
218
223
230
238
250
259
274
288
Win
Lose
160 usually isn’t enough, 180 usually wins and >200 is nailed on
What’s a winning score if the Oppo bat first?
The graph scores where the oppo batted first, home or away:
• We chased down less than 160, 49 of 61 times since 2017
• We won 8 times in 14 games chasing 161-180
• We won 11 times in 22 games chasing 181-200
• We won lost 16 of 54 games chasing >200
0
1
2
3
4
67
79
104
116
123
132
140
148
158
171
179
185
191
199
210
220
229
237
247
266
304
365
Win
Lose
Same story: chasing down >200 is really hard
Or putting it another way….
1st Innings scores banded on the x-axis (regardless who batted first)
Probability the team batting first won on the y-axis
Chasing down 201-225 runs is really hard:
We defend it 86% of times
They defend it 70%
Same story: chasing down >200 is really hard
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
<100 101-125 126-150 151-175 176-200 201-225 >225
First Innings Score
Likelihood of Winning % Given 1st Innings Score
Oppo bat 1st
PCC bats 1st
Putney Bowling
Graph: average wickets PCC takes in a match each season:
• Saturday teams’ bowlers seem to be finding their length
• Sat 1’s consistently take more wickets than Sat 2’s
• Do they hoard too many of the best bowlers in selection
process?!
• Are improved recent results more due to:
• improved bowling
• than better batting?
• Sun 2’s again very variable
• A young side still trying to work out who can actually bowl?
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Saturday 1st
Saturday 2nd
Sunday 1st
Sunday 2nd
You Don’t Win Unless You Bowl ‘em out
Graph: what % of games are won if we take X wickets
• Wickets win matches
• Not as poetic as catches winning, though
• Putney teams that take 10 wickets win 81% of those matches
• Only by taking 9 or 10 wickets is the win rate above 50%.
• You probably won’t lose if you take 8 wickets.
• Where the oppo win without losing a wicket:
• the data’s a bit ropey!
• Since 2006
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
ProportionofGames
Opposition Wickets We Take
Lose
LoseDraw
Tie
Draw
WinDraw
Win
Sunday teams get homesick
Teams win at home more than away.
Especially on Sunday!
Sat 1’s win 59% at home but win only 45% away
Sat 2’s win 58% home, win 48% away
Sun 1’s win 62% home, win 41% away
Sun 2’s win 53% home, win 39% away 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Away
Home
Away
Home
Away
Home
Away
Home
Away
Home
Away
Home
Away
Home
Saturday
1st
Saturday
2nd
Saturday
3rd
Sunday
1st
Sunday
2nd
Sunday
3rd
Midweek
%ofResultsfsince2006
Home or Away?
Draw
Lose
LoseDraw
WinDraw
Win
PCC is playing more games
Probably because we are putting our more teams,
especially on a Sunday
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NumberofFixtures
Season
Away
Home
Any Given Sunday
Big increase in Sunday games.
Even if you have to play away.
We thank the:
skippers, team sec & web editor and the players
for making that happen.
Quality of the welcome matters!
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Away
Home
Thank Heavens
The heavens stayed shut
Fewer games are abandoned
Pretty wet in 2012!
Are the new covers helping?
Is the re-laid square (2012) more resilient?
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NumberofFixtures
Season
Abandoned- Away
Abandoned- Home

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Moneyball

  • 1. You Had One Thing to Do… An Analysis of Putney CC Stats Seasons 2006 to 2020 unless otherwise stated Weekend & Midweek Games, excludes tours, Slam & PSV Source: PCC Website
  • 2. Who’s the Biggest Tosser? The Saturday 2’s skipper has been the best tosser: wins 55% of the time Saturday 1’s skippers need to take a long, hard look at themselves: a mere 45% Sunday 3’s skip has made a good start, but the statistical significance is dubious. We suspect midweek skippers are colluding! Since 2006 Count of Opponent Column Labels Row Labels Saturday 1st Saturday 2nd Saturday 3rd Sunday 1st Sunday 2nd Sunday 3rd Midweek Grand Total Lose 55% 45% 48% 49% 48% 38% 39% 49% Win 45% 55% 52% 51% 52% 63% 61% 51% Grand Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 3. You’ve won the toss, what next? Season (Multiple Items) Team (Multiple Items) Count of Opponent Column Labels Row Labels FALSE TRUE Lose 55% 45% Win 45% 55% Bat first, you dummy! 55% of the time, the skipper who wins the toss bats first NB since 2017, from when the bat first data is reliable
  • 4. Winning the toss helps The team that wins the toss, wins the game: 53% of the time. Since records began in 2006 Count of Opponent Column Labels Row Labels Win WinDraw Tie Draw LoseDraw Lose Lose 49% 2% 1% 4% 2% 42% Win 53% 1% 0% 1% 2% 42% Grand Total 51% 2% 1% 3% 2% 42%
  • 5. You had one thing to do… Win the toss and bat first, you dummy! How hard is that to understand? • Win toss & bat first, PCC win 64%/33% win/loss • Win the toss & field, wins 58/37 • Lose toss & we bat first, we win 44/42 • Lose toss & they bat first, we win 54/42 Batting second, PCC chases it down 53% of the time. But loses 42% of games slight evidence of Aussie-style choking. Since decent bat first records were kept from 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% FALSE TRUE FALSE TRUE Lose Win %ofResultsfsince2017 Did Putney CC Win the Toss? Lose LoseDraw Draw Tie WinDraw Win TRUE = PCC batted first
  • 6. We’ve had a good run of results More games won from the 2014 trough. Looks like we played for fun in 2020! Excludes abandoned games 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 %ofthatSeason'sResults Season Lose LoseDraw Tie Draw WinDraw Win
  • 7. More runs scored recently The data is noisy but: • Season average match aggregate runs in each season (ie theirs and ours combined) have been rising since 2017, especially at home this year. • Scores at home at not different from those away • Bowlers have been taking 15 to 16 wickets per match on average since time immemorial! • Match runs on left-hand axis, wickets on the right 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 AverageMatchAggregateWickets AverageMatchAggregateRuns Season Away - Average ofMatch Aggregate Runs Home - Average ofMatch Aggregate Runs Away - Average ofMatch Aggregate Wickets Home - Average ofMatch Aggregate Wickets
  • 8. Putney Batting The graph shows average Putney team score each season: • Sat 1’s scores seem to have been declining for a long time • Sat 2’s are on the up • The Tushar and Amogh effect? • The Sunday teams are duking it out for bragging rights • Sun 2’s very variable • A young side still trying to find their best batting order? 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Saturday 1st Saturday 2nd Sunday 1st Sunday 2nd
  • 9. What’s a winning score Putney batting first? Graph shows scores where a PCC team batted first, home or away: • We won having scored less than 160, 12 of 44 times since 2017 • We won 13 times in 22 games having scored 161-180 • We won 14 times in 22 games scoring 181-200 • We only lost 6 of 62 games in which we batted first & scored >200 0 1 2 3 4 67 106 120 125 138 145 151 156 161 167 175 179 183 190 196 202 209 214 218 223 230 238 250 259 274 288 Win Lose 160 usually isn’t enough, 180 usually wins and >200 is nailed on
  • 10. What’s a winning score if the Oppo bat first? The graph scores where the oppo batted first, home or away: • We chased down less than 160, 49 of 61 times since 2017 • We won 8 times in 14 games chasing 161-180 • We won 11 times in 22 games chasing 181-200 • We won lost 16 of 54 games chasing >200 0 1 2 3 4 67 79 104 116 123 132 140 148 158 171 179 185 191 199 210 220 229 237 247 266 304 365 Win Lose Same story: chasing down >200 is really hard
  • 11. Or putting it another way…. 1st Innings scores banded on the x-axis (regardless who batted first) Probability the team batting first won on the y-axis Chasing down 201-225 runs is really hard: We defend it 86% of times They defend it 70% Same story: chasing down >200 is really hard 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% <100 101-125 126-150 151-175 176-200 201-225 >225 First Innings Score Likelihood of Winning % Given 1st Innings Score Oppo bat 1st PCC bats 1st
  • 12. Putney Bowling Graph: average wickets PCC takes in a match each season: • Saturday teams’ bowlers seem to be finding their length • Sat 1’s consistently take more wickets than Sat 2’s • Do they hoard too many of the best bowlers in selection process?! • Are improved recent results more due to: • improved bowling • than better batting? • Sun 2’s again very variable • A young side still trying to work out who can actually bowl? 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Saturday 1st Saturday 2nd Sunday 1st Sunday 2nd
  • 13. You Don’t Win Unless You Bowl ‘em out Graph: what % of games are won if we take X wickets • Wickets win matches • Not as poetic as catches winning, though • Putney teams that take 10 wickets win 81% of those matches • Only by taking 9 or 10 wickets is the win rate above 50%. • You probably won’t lose if you take 8 wickets. • Where the oppo win without losing a wicket: • the data’s a bit ropey! • Since 2006 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ProportionofGames Opposition Wickets We Take Lose LoseDraw Tie Draw WinDraw Win
  • 14. Sunday teams get homesick Teams win at home more than away. Especially on Sunday! Sat 1’s win 59% at home but win only 45% away Sat 2’s win 58% home, win 48% away Sun 1’s win 62% home, win 41% away Sun 2’s win 53% home, win 39% away 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Away Home Away Home Away Home Away Home Away Home Away Home Away Home Saturday 1st Saturday 2nd Saturday 3rd Sunday 1st Sunday 2nd Sunday 3rd Midweek %ofResultsfsince2006 Home or Away? Draw Lose LoseDraw WinDraw Win
  • 15. PCC is playing more games Probably because we are putting our more teams, especially on a Sunday 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NumberofFixtures Season Away Home
  • 16. Any Given Sunday Big increase in Sunday games. Even if you have to play away. We thank the: skippers, team sec & web editor and the players for making that happen. Quality of the welcome matters! 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Away Home
  • 17. Thank Heavens The heavens stayed shut Fewer games are abandoned Pretty wet in 2012! Are the new covers helping? Is the re-laid square (2012) more resilient? 0 5 10 15 20 25 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NumberofFixtures Season Abandoned- Away Abandoned- Home