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Similar to Moldova-Small country with big geopolitical role-Nov2016
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Moldova-Small country with big geopolitical role-Nov2016
- 1. Moldova: Small country with big geopolitical role Monika Begovic PhD International Conference, Chisinau, Moldova 28 November 2016
- 3. New geopolitical challenges • Interests of great powers in today’s world create a more challenging environment for small countries (small powers?) • Consequence: Small countries need to keep options open and to balance multiple relationships; Their attractiveness depends on strategic considerations of great powers
- 4. New geopolitical challenges Moldova is a small state Why is it so important for Russia, EU, but also USA? • Moldova is a small but strategic country located in the European borderlands - strategically important buffer zone between East and West; • It is an important component of the relations between Moscow and the West; • Moldova today is in the ‘grey zone’ between Western (EU and NATO) and Russian influence Both Russia (East) and the European Union (West) have long competed for influence in Moldova
- 5. New geopolitical challenges Moldova and its geopolitical role: • there’s still an ongoing competition between Russia and the West over the part of the territory of the former Soviet Union • the whole geopolitical space of the former Soviet Union was considered significant due to the transportation of oil and gas Moldova matters as a transit point for the movement of oil and natural gas from Russia into Europe and Turkey • Moldova: proximity to the strategic Ukrainian port of Odessa and to the Russia-controlled Crimean Peninsula, where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is stationed
- 6. Geopolitical challenges - Russia Russia and Moldova • Russia's strong military presence in the breakaway territory of Transdniestria and in pro-Russia pockets of Moldovan territory (Gaguzia) give Moscow significant leverage
- 7. Geopolitical implications • Russia doesn’t want Moldova to orientate towards the West - Russia needs to preserve a buffer zone between itself and NATO • Moscow retains a strong presence in Moldova's financial sector – media report that roughly 70% of Moldova's banking sector is controlled by Russian capital
- 8. Geopolitical implications Transnistria After the annexation of the Crimea by Russia in March 2014 the head of the Transnistrian parliament asked to join the Russian Federation
- 9. Geopolitical challenges - West Role of the West: • the country has(d) pro-Western orientation: • relations with NATO through PfP – no plans to join due to Moldova’s neutrality • striving for EU membership relations between Moldova and the EU are currently shaped via the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), an EU foreign policy instrument dealing with countries bordering its member states
- 10. Moldova & EU Eastern Partnership (EaP) • specific Eastern dimension to the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP), designed to reinforce the political association and economic integration of eastern European partner countries. • governs its relationship with the post-Soviet states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine • provides an avenue for discussions of trade, economic strategy, travel agreements, and other issues between the EU and its eastern neighbors
- 11. Geopolitical implications Romania and Moldova • Is there still a desire of Moldovan people for a unification with Romania? On 27 November 2013, a day before participation in the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, Romanian President Basescu was interviewed and said that the third priority for Romania, after joining NATO and the EU, must be the union with Moldova
- 12. Internal political development Presidential elections: • Is the election of Igor Dodon a sign that Moldova may diverge from Europe? • Is Moldova, in that case, going to follow the footsteps of Hungary and Poland? • the Moldovan election is crucial in further development of Moldovan orientation towards East or West Igor Dodon is the first president in 20 years to be directly elected by citizens rather than being chosen by parliament
- 13. Elections • Moldova’s presidential election are shaping the country’s politics and international orientation pro-Russian President, of Russian ethnic background, President who promises to strengthen ties with Russia and makes the economy of Moldova grow
- 14. Igor Dodon’s campaign was concetrated towards neglecting the association agreement with Europe and joining a Russian-sponsored economic bloc instead: Igor Dodon said the election “mark a new beginning” for a country blighted by poverty and graft
- 15. • The election was seen as a battle between those supporting closer ties with Russia and those wanting integration with the European Union • Headline: “Moldova’s head of state will be elected depending on the outcome of the US presidential elections”.
- 16. Political system of Moldova Moldova is a parliamentary republic; But: the President in Moldova is more than just a figurehead: i.e. the President can return laws to parliament and dissolve the assembly in certain situations And: Moldova has not had a stable parliamentary government for almost 2 years
- 17. Geopolitical implications President vs. Government Dodon's promise to pursue closer ties with Russia rather than the European Union is in direct conflict with the pro- European stance of the current government
- 18. Plans after elections? Obvious political message: Presidential elections aren’t key elections, but they’re a means to strengthen the socialists for a victory which will mean something — at the parliamentary elections in 2018 Russia will use this
- 19. Reflections... Benefits for Croatia for entering the EU: • Rule of law • Fight against corruption • Freedom of movement (soon Schengen) • Structural funds • Bigger market • Safety and stability • Participation in the European Parliament and European Commission and other bodies
- 20. Moldova – what next... Moldova must continue to balance between its Eastern and Western neighbors and continue to carry out reforms. Reforms cannot be taken from some other country, they have to be carried out by the people of the country!
- 21. Moldova – what next... - ‘Small countries absorb the greatest contradictions of geopolitics’
Editor's Notes
- A great power is a sovereign state that is recognized as having the ability and expertise to exert its influence on a global scale. Great powers characteristically possess military and economic strength, as well as diplomatic and soft power influence, which may cause middle or small powers to consider the great powers' opinions before taking actions of their own. International relations theorists have posited that great power status can be characterized into power capabilities, spatial aspects, and status dimensions (balance of power) Small: territory, population, GDP, power
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- Moscow does retain a strong presence in Moldova's financial sector. Roughly 70 percent of Moldova's banking sector reportedly is controlled by Russian capital, and the head of Moldova's largest bank, Moldindconbank, lives in Russia and has political connections there
- Transnistria, the land on the east bank of the Dniester River with a majority of the population being Slavic. In 1990, Transnistria declared its independence and became an internationally unrecognized state, known as the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic
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- Transnistria is a major barrier to any progress According to polls, during the last few years the percentage of people willing to vote 'yes' to Moldova acceding to the EU is at its lowest in more than 10 years of monitoring. Now, slightly more Moldovans favour joining the Russia-led Customs Union over the EU
- Romanian-speaking countries, but Moldova is not very keen in unification – over 60% of Moldovans are opposing to unification Dual citizenships – 35% has Romanian citizenship -The main reason of those interested is: feeling Romanian (31.9%), the possibility of traveling to Romania (48.9%), and the possibility of traveling and/or working in the EU (17.2%) As for the “Romanian factor,” Bucharest has considerably changed its rhetoric under the new president Klaus Iohannis. The political focus shifted from propagating the idea of the “great union,” as phrased by the former Romanian leader Traian Băsescu, to building economic ties not only with the Republic of Moldova but also with Transnistria. In this, Bucharest is influenced to some extent by the European Union, which against the background of the conflict in Donbass and the migration crisis, is not interested in the escalation of another standoff close to its borders. Moldova's political crisis — and particularly the country's growing financial difficulties — could also provide an opportunity for Romania. Moldova's poor economic situation, which the public believes was caused largely by corruption, could explain why recent demonstrations supporting reunification with Romania were some of the country's largest and most sustained in recent years. Knowing that foreign banks will likely not go into Moldova at a time when 80 percent of the country's banks are under surveillance programs, Romania is in a good position to assist the country, given that its understands Moldova well and has a strategic interest in bringing Chisinau out of Moscow's orbit
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- Dodon’s voters are older (35% of 56-70 year olds voted in the first round, even though they form just 19% of the electorate), and 40% of them are Russian-speakers or ethnic minorities.
- Moldova signed a political and trade agreement with the European bloc in 2014 that damaged its ties with Moscow, which imposed trade restrictions on Moldovan farming exports. Dodon's Socialist party wants to scrap that agreement in favor of joining a Eurasian economic union dominated by Russia - a policy backed by many Moldovans who have suffered financially from the goods embargo and broader economic downturn
- headline, “Moldova’s head of state will be elected depending on the outcome of the US presidential elections”.
- +difficult economic situation in the country
- In a sign of the waning enthusiasm for the EU, just 30.9 percent of Moldovans would currently support joining as a full member, compared to 44 percent favoring the Eurasian Customs Union Squeezed between Ukraine and EU member Romania, Moldova signed a political and trade agreement with the European bloc in 2014 that damaged its ties with Moscow, which imposed trade restrictions on Moldovan farming exports. Dodon's Socialist party wants to scrap that agreement in favor of joining a Eurasian economic union dominated by Russia - a policy backed by many Moldovans who have suffered financially from the goods embargo and broader economic downturn.
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