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Transforming The Low-Income Housing Market
We believe we can transform the housing market for low-income buyers. We believe that our
product lends itself to personal, powerful, purposeful neighborhoods that support people,
cultures, and civilization as we know it. We believe that our neighborhoods can be part of a
program of healing and re-entry for those who for various reasons have been excluded from our
culture, whether through homelessness or mental health issues.
Millions of square
feet of factory floor
space are available
for rehab in Detroit
and other rust belt
cities. Currently,
these buildings and
sites are considered
โ€œurban blightโ€,
which isn't fair if
they can be cleaned,
upgraded, and
repurposed as one
aspect of a dynamic
and effective self-
funding, tax-paying
โ€œurban renewalโ€
program.
A large car factory repurposed into a Modular Structures Factory (MSF), for example, could be a
large multi-purpose building with its own neighborhood of small apartments (the multifamily
equivalent of small houses which have a long history in architecture as studio and one bedroom
efficiency apartments) that can be built internally by the MSF and rented or sold to workers or
others in need in cooperation with the city and county governments. The factory site could be a
discrete neighborhood, if it is large enough, and contain outreach offices, child care
professionals, pet care and sitting, schools for all ages, cafeterias and restaurants, 24/7 security,
shopping centers, and multiple production floor shifts, providing not just an opportunity to get a
job, job training, and a small apartment, but all that in a secure location with services that
homeless people, parents, children, and veterans and their pets need to recover, like food, a place
to sleep, shower, and safely store the pitiful array of consumer goods the system has allowed
them to keep. We might even build our own internal non-denominational church where all faiths
are welcome and the church staff assist in community service and outreach. Sermons will not be
a pack of Republican talking points. That is not why we have churches.
If the residential neighborhood is run and fundedโ€”even in partโ€”by the city itself, homes can be
assigned to the new arrivals based on their needs and ability to pay, whether political refugees,
domestic homeless, homeless veterans, abused runaways, or abused spouses. Initially, they may
pay nothing at all. Later, as they progress, they may get a job that would allow them to pay rent
on a sliding scale. At an even higher level of progress, they may want to purchase the home they
have been living in (or they may feel strong enough to move into a more independent
neighborhood). Using this model, it's possible for each neighborhood to go through a healing
process, sell all of its housing stock to the formerly discarded people who can continue as an
integrated group to move toward healthy, supportive behaviors while a new neighborhood
intended to serve the same kinds of people is constructed nearby with the newest technology and
materials, and possibly at even lower costs than the original neighborhood, while the cycle
begins anew.
Essentially, a large MSF site could become a form of Paolo Soleri's vision of arcology, where city
services and destinations are all within easy walking distance. At some point the site could join
the larger mass transit system as a major stop with shopping and restaurants and become more
fully integrated into the economic, social, and political life of the surrounding city, further
empowering people to continue their journey of personal growth.
The current housing market
We believe we can transform the housing market for low-income buyers. The current housing
market has a lot of demand, but not much supply and almost no supply in the low-income
affordable housing sector. Prices are very high due to low inventory and current high interest
rates, which combine to make it difficult to manage expectations of both buyers and sellers,
leading to a very slow turnover rate and unsatisfied demand. Unforeseen price increases in
building materials have added a hesitancy to add to the supply.
This unfortunate set of events leaves people frustrated and anxious that they are being frozen out
of the market at a critical time. While this may or may not be true, we are currently living
through a time of relatively high inflation and zero wage growth, leaving renters at the mercy of
the landlords. Landlords are concerned that their assets are not salable in the current market. This
is not true, of course, but taking a lower price in order to sell their rental properties is a difficult
conversation.
There is a viable solution to transform the market for the low-end buyer, a solution that has
several threads of development which are coming together right now, though not without
challenges.
Pic credit Forbes
We can put a
large number
of buyers into
this low-end
or entry-level
category.
Those who
have recently
graduated
from high
school or
college with a
good job and
good credit
who want to move out of the house. Newlyweds who want to improve their cash positions so that
when the market opens up they will be in a better position to purchase a more traditional starter
home. University students (and their parents) who want a safe and stable neighborhood for their
child to live in, with the potential of recouping their investment upon graduation. Elder care
accessory dwelling units in town, and extra on-property dwellings for grown children in the more
rural areas. Even city and county governments which would like to buy small, well-designed
neighborhoods to bring homeless veteransโ€”and homeless people in generalโ€”in off the street so
they are no longer a police problem and a visual distraction to tourism, but have fixed addresses
for employment and access to services they need to break the cycle of homelessness and mental
illness as they reintegrate into conventional society.
Who our customers are not: people in their prime spending years; people with large, growing
families; rich people. By โ€œnot our customersโ€ I do not mean we would never sell them a house
should they want to buy one, but rather that the payback is so small on any kind of marketing
campaign directed at them that it would just be wasted money better spent on our natural
customers.
We believe that our
product lends itself to
personal, powerful,
purposeful
neighborhoods that
support people, cultures,
and civilization as we
know it. A small modular
neighborhood might
affect an older,
established neighborhood
in several ways.
Generally, current
owners are impacted by
fear of the unknown,
though very few cities in
the US have experience
with significant small modular home neighborhoods established in a conventional urban-scape.
Current owners fear lower property values, which is reasonable given how much ugly freight has
become attached to the label โ€œhomelessโ€, โ€œpoorโ€, and โ€œforeignโ€ here in the United States, making
small modular housing developments politically very challenging. This can be reframed with
names that positively associate starting over with strong American values or with mixed
neighborhoods that have university students, recent grads, and newlyweds mixed in with
formerly homeless people. A strong and active Home Owners Association, one that helps the new
owners, not just penalizes them, would keep curb appeal high, keeping resale values high, and
bringing more energy into the area, adding value to existing homes and neighborhoods.
Moreover, the smaller lots allow denser populations which can increase city property tax income
faster than service costs, making it a financial win for the city.
There does not seem to be much to fear in an adverse economy like the current one where high
interest rates and low inventories continue to impact sales of larger conventional houses. Adverse
conditions for conventional markets appear well suited for smaller modular houses where buyers
need to down size. Small modular houses can be constructed rapidly to a very high level of
quality while to total purchase price of the structure keeps payments within reach of the low-
income working family, even with higher interest rates.
As America's middle
class shrinks and our
poor population grows,
this may be their only
access into real estate
as a savings and
retirement asset. This is
one of the reasons why
we believe we must
transform the housing
market for low-income
buyers.
Challenges for the small modular house market
The single largest obstacle to a healthy, vibrant market for small modular houses is a vibrant,
healthy, secondary market. We can continue to sell small, semi-custom-built homes for cash to
those who can afford them, but without the ability to purchase these houses on a standard,
conforming, tax-deductible mortgage, we freeze out most of our natural customers who simply
cannot arrange a cash or unsecured loan to buy a small modular home. This also makes it all but
impossible for the current owner to tap into the value increase of his building, assuming good
market conditions. When it is time to sell their property, it also makes it impossible for the owner
of the combination conventional home with a backyard modular structure to recoup the costs of
the original purchase whether used as an office, studio, or elder-care accessory dwelling unit.
This can be a large financial penalty as even a small modular structure with a number of
significant upgrades can run the original purchase price to over $100,000.
To fit the small modular home mortgage into the existing system, it has to be a โ€œconforming
loanโ€, one that meets the rules of FHA, USDA, and the VA. This allows government backing,
making things easier for everyone involved in the system, especially Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac who we want to buy the mortgage from the original lender and sell bundles of them to
investors as is currently done with conventional, conforming loans. This allows the original
lender to have more liquidity, which means they can make more loans, enabling more people to
purchase a home. This is of particular interest for owners of small homes located in areas where
they will turn over more rapidly than a conventional homes, such as near universities and
vacation spots. This is not all bad as the bank gets to write a loan origination package somewhat
more often than they would with a conventional house.
So that the real estate
machine can function
smoothly, we need enough
examples of conventional
homes with mortgaged
backyard modular structures
in the local area to provide
comparable values. Given
the rules already in effect
for mortgages, this is going
to require time to allow
people to purchase and
install these structures for
elder care, detached offices,
workshops, studios, and the
like while working with
home owners associations,
city zoning boards, local
developers, and lenders in
order to generate approvals
and broader acceptance of
these valuable detached
buildings.
Home Owners Associations
are probably the single largest hurdle for backyard modular structures. We typically find HOAs
in relatively expensive neighborhoods where appearances are considered to be very important to
maintenance of property values and anything considered out of the ordinary has an uphill battle
for approval. To transform the housing market, we must challenge and change these views.
Showing how these modular structures can add value to their properties is a very good first step.
The whole mission of the HOA can be summed up as โ€œvalue preservationโ€. If we can show how
to increase values by adding a small modular structure, one that blends well with the existing
architecture, we will have advanced quite a lot.
City zoning boards are a mixed bag. Here in Mobile, Alabama, there is no minimum square
footage and no minimum number of rooms to be a house. This is not true in other localities. In
some places, a 400 square foot modular house would be below the minimum area threshold and
require a zoning variance, especially if we are talking about an entirely new neighborhood in a
city with no experience of these kinds of buildings.
With that understood, there are good arguments that a developer can present to the city to justify
a small neighborhood variance, not least of which is increased density while still preserving a
suburban lifestyle without the need for exceptional additional city servicesโ€”one firehouse can
cover a two hundred structure small modular neighborhood as well as it can a one hundred
structure conventional neighborhood for the same cost, for example.
The small modular building also has better resistance to potentially catastrophic weather events
like hurricanes and tornadoes due to their smaller sizes, but standard sized framing elements.
These buildings are
not mobile homes,
travel trailers, or
recreational vehicles.
They are built as
solidly as any
conventionally
constructed house,
just smaller so that
the major structural
components are
closer together and
therefore can handle
higher loads without
failure.
Further, current technology factory-built modular houses can be constructed to minimize
electrical and water requirements both because of added components and because of the
generally lower occupancy rates of each structure. And because the MSF has precision plans for
every structure it builds, it is relatively easy over time for a homeowner to add on to the initial
structure, whether a new wing to one side or an additional story or both, by purchasing a semi-
custom addition to his home, thereby increasing the value of the property as well as gaining
additional space.
Home insurance
Insurance is another major obstacle as insurance is a major part of the borrower's monthly
payment. A small modular home on an urban or suburban (or even rural) foundation with city
services (water, electricity, gas, etc) is not a motorcycle, travel trailer, or mobile home, nor is it an
RV. The risk profile is far lower, even lower than a conventionally constructed house because it is
more resistant to catastrophic weather damage, and the customer should be charged accordingly.
Yes, there are RV travel houses, but they are not the focus of this plan.
Opportunity for urban renewal without losing the cheap housing.
We believe that our product lends itself to personal, powerful, purposeful neighborhoods that
support people, cultures, and civilization as we know it. Cities are cultural centers, creators of
civilization, and have always been. Many US cities were devastated economically when many
large manufacturing companies shut down their factories here in the United States and rebuilt
them in foreign countries with nominally lower labor rates. US cities are therefore faced with
decades of economic rebuilding in and around existing infrastructure, which is very expensive to
replace, especially on a reduced tax base. More to the point, this existing infrastructure can be
renewed and reused as new businesses, like small modular building factories and their associated
suppliers, move into these openings. This is true urban renewal: the replacement of one industry
with another, creating its own complex ecology of supporting businesses, which provide
employment for thousands of people in direct, support, and ancillary industries.
In urban renewal there is often a conversation about whether it is more efficient to rebuild or
replace the existing housing stock, which are usually conventional houses, but usually sadly out
of date in terms of insulation, electrical systems, and data connections. The structures are also
sometimes sadly substandard with hazardous construction materials, coatings, and infestations of
pests. And yet the styles of these houses, their similarity, are often the hallmarks of different
neighborhoods, indicative of a particular cultural identity within the urban matrix. The small
modular house neighborhood is one possible solution, and one that essentially funds itself, as all
good ideas tend to do. Poor political refugees can get entry level jobs and yet still qualify to buy
a small home in a nearby development, creating cultural diversity within the city and preserving
their own cultural identity for perhaps three generations (Issei, Nisei, Sansei) before swirling into
the multi-cultural Jackson Pollack painting that is what passes for culture in the present day
United States.
Some substandard housing is simply going to have to be torn down as not economically
repairable, unless we are going to attach intangibles like โ€œneighborhood markerโ€ to a particular
structure, in which case we are likely to end up building an entirely new house and sliding it
under the street number. An expensive proposition, but worthy of discussion for the purposes of
communicating neighborhood cultural identity.
Other substandard houses can be rescued
by remodelers, people who specialize in
fixing up substandard houses exactly like
these by running new lead-free pipe lines,
installing modern Romex electrical systems
from modern circuit breaker panels,
installing new roofs and triple-glazed
windows, repairing foundations, and
insulating walls, ceilings, and floors to
reduce the future carbon footprint to heat
and cool. This may be an area where the
Modular Structures Factory can utilize its
production speed, precision build
processes, and trained finish assemblers to
rapidly construct add-ons and repair
modules for existing houses faster and at a lower cost than a remodeler can.
Maslow and healing neighborhoods
We believe that our neighborhoods can be part of a program of healing and re-entry for those
who for various reasons have been excluded from our culture, whether through homelessness or
mental health issues. A therapeutic neighborhood could be a purpose-designed and -built housing
development, either greenfield or brownfield, extending from a central core of offices designed
and intended to provide outreach services to those in need: financial, VA, health care, legal as
well as the more fundamental things such as food, shelter, water, hygiene, and connection to
other people.
Farther up the hierarchy of
needs, people need
personal security (doors
with locks where they hold
the keys, 24/7 building or
neighborhood security),
and a job. In our society,
our culture, no one without
a job has any security at
all. These people know
that. They were just living
that life. They also need
physical health care,
mental health care, hearing
and vision care, dentistry,
and emotional therapy,
services that can all be based in the central core of the neighborhood on at least an occasional
basis. These people need to regain their health: mental and physical. Granted, not every person in
need can be healed through this program. As the saying goes: I can't cure world hunger, but I can
share my sandwich. Some people will not benefit and we need to be mindful of this and be
willing to manage their transfer to more suitable programs.
People need to own their own goods and property again, things no one can take away from them:
clothing, bedding, glasses, a watch, a phone, some inexpensive furniture. External indicia of
personal progress from homelessness to that of stable, valued citizen with a job who makes a
contribution every day.
With health and security handled, they need groups to
belong to groups with shared experiencesโ€”whether
some sort of 12 Step program, a veterans PTSD
therapy group, or people dealing with other traumatic
life issues. They need connections to other people.
They need to make friends, perhaps even reestablish
communication with their family of origin, or select an
entirely new group of people to act as an intentional,
surrogate family, one that is safe to be around. The
intent is to find or create a sense of connection and a
sense of safety, belonging, and intimacy, which are
crucial for humans.
Site security is clearly an essential part of the matrix. Keeping thieves, robbers, abusive spouses
and parents out of the neighborhood gives people a chance to decompress and think, to reorder
their lives in constructive ways. Security personnelโ€”including off-duty policeโ€”can be recruited
from the surrounding area at first, but supplemented over time with resident veterans (police and
military) who are emotionally stable enough to perform well without snapping or regressing.
Working in small, supportive groups, the same groups that they attend therapy with, may be a
good solution.
With a job, health care, friends, and a sense of connection to the group, the neighborhood, people
need respect within their groups, status, and recognition of who they are as people and how they
contribute in order to build up their strength and so they can move towards personal freedom.
At that point, the last peak to scale is self-actualization, that internal need to become all that one
can be. Hence this plan. This plan is part of my own sense of self-actualization. Everyone reading
this plan is already self-actualized or you would not be operating at this level. You have already
passed through all the other stages that so many people simply do not have the resourcesโ€”
internal or externalโ€”to achieve. Congratulations. In all seriousness, that is a massive
achievement. Now it is time to pay it forward to others.
The Factory Itself
The technology is small factory-built modular structuresโ€”generally housesโ€”with precision
tooling and supplemental automation where it makes sense. We have had modern factory built
modular homes for forty years or more, much longer than that if you want to count military
Quonset huts and the like. There is nothing wrong with the technology. It has been thoroughly
tested and in most cases is actually better than site-built because weather is not a problem during
construction and the addition of large, fast, high precision, automated machinery to the
production stream is easy and it produces a better product.
Our initial target production rate would be ten structures a week. It will take time to build up to
that number, but once the right people and processes are in place, and partnering with the right
suppliers, that rate is very achievable. With further experience, we may be able to edge up to
eighty structures a week, depending on the site. Each of these structures would sell for between
$60,000 to $100,000 each. At our initial target, that is approximately $800,000 per week revenue
on average, and assuming a 60% net, would produce almost half a million dollars per week in
operating income, which would enable the MSF to pay for itself quickly. The labor pool is the
most critical production factor.
An indoor modular factory also allows for the site to work two fully productive shifts per day,
year round, regardless of the weather. Technically, we could work three shifts per day, but that
last shift is the least productive and does not allow either of the other shifts time to catch up on
tasks that were not accomplished on schedule, nor does it allow for integrated plant maintenance.
A full three-shift industrial site would have to be shut down completely for weeks per year to
catch up on necessary maintenance and repair tasks.
Automation has been made practical
for our use because of the
proliferation of 3-D design software
and how far this technology has
penetrated into the house-building
industry. Part definitions can be
loaded into a machine and with an
assigned material handler, a full kit of
wall studs, door and window beams,
ceiling and floor joists, roof trusses,
all with various systems provisions
can be fabricated quickly, precisely,
repeatably, and efficiently. These parts can quickly located in jigs and other tooling to allow
rapid, accurate assembly of various modules that can then be stored awaiting an order or put
immediately on the production line. It makes kitting of an entire modular structure a real
possibility, which can improve the flow rate, reducing variable costs while providing more units
over which to amortize the fixed costs of automation and tooling. We can cost-effectively store
the entire structure of a small modular building, but not the interior appointments, because we
only make a small number of sizes in a small number of floor plans. The kit will not stay in the
warehouse very long. We rely on options for differentiation, not a proliferation of sizes and floor
plans.
The labor pool is an interesting question. In all the cases of which I am aware, we must have a
general contractor (GC) on staff along with a licensed plumber (LP) and a licensed electrician
(LE). Those are heads of departments along with others such as Inspection, Sales & Marketing,
Materials, Machine Operators, Architecture & Engineering, Administration, and the like. The GC
handles structure and most of the finish work. The LP and LE are responsible for overseeing the
installation of their systems, which will also include a fair amount of finish work during final
assembly. The finish work is the longest flow item in the plan. Dry wall, doors, flooring,
baseboards, cabinetry, plumbing fixtures, electrical fixtures, glazing, systems testing, interior and
exterior paint, etc. The MSF must hire good people and pay to keep them while continuing to
educate and train them so that they become ever more valuable contributors to the company,
potentially forming the core cadre of senior people needed to open a new MSF in a different city.
Trained and experienced interior installers are likely to be our first labor bottleneck, an issue that
can be constructively addressed by hiring graduates of the local vo-tech schools who studied the
building trades and training them up to contribute effectively and efficiently to our style of
building. Coming to work for the Modular Structures Factory for a year or two can give the
recent vo-tech graduates new skills and understanding, allowing them to seek work elsewhere as
a finish carpenter, plumber, or electrician. The MSF can become a transitional โ€œfinishing schoolโ€
for a new generation of workers in the trades.
The roof is constructed separately
and is structurally attached
weather-tight to the base structure
for strength before the completed
structure can be sent to final
assembly. Glazing, solar panels,
roofing materials, insulation,
decking, trusses, etc. Everything
but the Christmas lights, and the
electrical crew will connect
outdoor outlets for that sort of
thing if ordered as an option.
After final assembly, the building is loaded onto a special, adjustable low-boy truck trailer to
move it to its new home. Each state has its own legal definition for an oversize load. If we can
keep inside those dimensions and just pay an annual license, things go faster and easier as the
factory will be better able to control its own destiny in terms of deliveries. This is the biggest
reason to prefer a manufacturing site that is immediately adjacent to a major highway or
interstate.
The building will be moved to its new site where it will be structurally installed on a pier and
beam foundation (a zoning ordinance requirement for accessory units here in Mobile) or onto
slabs or other foundations according to their zoning requirements, making these very resistant to
weather damage. Generally speaking, we would not want to drive farther than two hours from the
factory as that makes it all but impossible for each truck to deliver two houses per day;
maintenance activities can be limited to the second shift so that the truck is always fully available
during the day. If we are producing at only two houses per day (our initial target production rate),
we can scrape by with one truck and two installation crews. The truck would drop off the new
structure at the new site and the installation crew hooks it up to the foundation and utilities,
ensuring everything works the way its supposed to. As the production rate increases, we can add
more trucks and installation crews.
For the Modular Structures Factory to grow and expand, we will need cadres of trained and
experienced people who are willing and able to move to a new city. With that core of competent
senior people, standing up a new factory will take a small fraction of the time it will take to stand
up the first factory. This presumes that the ground has been prepared by company lawyers and
associated developers who have zoning variances in work or already approved.
Conclusion
We believe that opening the housing market to allow poor people to buy small, high quality, entry
level homes in small, supportive neighborhoods can transform the face of America and therefore
the world. The small Modular Structures Factory is a concept that can work in other parts of the
world, not just in the United States. It can provide poor people with jobs, services, and even
homes in slums all around the world. And it can do this with a minimal impact on the
environment.

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Modular Structures Factory Plan 3.31 with pics.pdf

  • 1. Transforming The Low-Income Housing Market We believe we can transform the housing market for low-income buyers. We believe that our product lends itself to personal, powerful, purposeful neighborhoods that support people, cultures, and civilization as we know it. We believe that our neighborhoods can be part of a program of healing and re-entry for those who for various reasons have been excluded from our culture, whether through homelessness or mental health issues. Millions of square feet of factory floor space are available for rehab in Detroit and other rust belt cities. Currently, these buildings and sites are considered โ€œurban blightโ€, which isn't fair if they can be cleaned, upgraded, and repurposed as one aspect of a dynamic and effective self- funding, tax-paying โ€œurban renewalโ€ program. A large car factory repurposed into a Modular Structures Factory (MSF), for example, could be a large multi-purpose building with its own neighborhood of small apartments (the multifamily equivalent of small houses which have a long history in architecture as studio and one bedroom efficiency apartments) that can be built internally by the MSF and rented or sold to workers or others in need in cooperation with the city and county governments. The factory site could be a discrete neighborhood, if it is large enough, and contain outreach offices, child care professionals, pet care and sitting, schools for all ages, cafeterias and restaurants, 24/7 security, shopping centers, and multiple production floor shifts, providing not just an opportunity to get a job, job training, and a small apartment, but all that in a secure location with services that homeless people, parents, children, and veterans and their pets need to recover, like food, a place to sleep, shower, and safely store the pitiful array of consumer goods the system has allowed them to keep. We might even build our own internal non-denominational church where all faiths are welcome and the church staff assist in community service and outreach. Sermons will not be a pack of Republican talking points. That is not why we have churches. If the residential neighborhood is run and fundedโ€”even in partโ€”by the city itself, homes can be assigned to the new arrivals based on their needs and ability to pay, whether political refugees, domestic homeless, homeless veterans, abused runaways, or abused spouses. Initially, they may pay nothing at all. Later, as they progress, they may get a job that would allow them to pay rent on a sliding scale. At an even higher level of progress, they may want to purchase the home they have been living in (or they may feel strong enough to move into a more independent neighborhood). Using this model, it's possible for each neighborhood to go through a healing
  • 2. process, sell all of its housing stock to the formerly discarded people who can continue as an integrated group to move toward healthy, supportive behaviors while a new neighborhood intended to serve the same kinds of people is constructed nearby with the newest technology and materials, and possibly at even lower costs than the original neighborhood, while the cycle begins anew. Essentially, a large MSF site could become a form of Paolo Soleri's vision of arcology, where city services and destinations are all within easy walking distance. At some point the site could join the larger mass transit system as a major stop with shopping and restaurants and become more fully integrated into the economic, social, and political life of the surrounding city, further empowering people to continue their journey of personal growth. The current housing market We believe we can transform the housing market for low-income buyers. The current housing market has a lot of demand, but not much supply and almost no supply in the low-income affordable housing sector. Prices are very high due to low inventory and current high interest rates, which combine to make it difficult to manage expectations of both buyers and sellers, leading to a very slow turnover rate and unsatisfied demand. Unforeseen price increases in building materials have added a hesitancy to add to the supply. This unfortunate set of events leaves people frustrated and anxious that they are being frozen out of the market at a critical time. While this may or may not be true, we are currently living through a time of relatively high inflation and zero wage growth, leaving renters at the mercy of the landlords. Landlords are concerned that their assets are not salable in the current market. This is not true, of course, but taking a lower price in order to sell their rental properties is a difficult conversation. There is a viable solution to transform the market for the low-end buyer, a solution that has several threads of development which are coming together right now, though not without challenges. Pic credit Forbes We can put a large number of buyers into this low-end or entry-level category. Those who have recently graduated from high school or college with a good job and good credit
  • 3. who want to move out of the house. Newlyweds who want to improve their cash positions so that when the market opens up they will be in a better position to purchase a more traditional starter home. University students (and their parents) who want a safe and stable neighborhood for their child to live in, with the potential of recouping their investment upon graduation. Elder care accessory dwelling units in town, and extra on-property dwellings for grown children in the more rural areas. Even city and county governments which would like to buy small, well-designed neighborhoods to bring homeless veteransโ€”and homeless people in generalโ€”in off the street so they are no longer a police problem and a visual distraction to tourism, but have fixed addresses for employment and access to services they need to break the cycle of homelessness and mental illness as they reintegrate into conventional society. Who our customers are not: people in their prime spending years; people with large, growing families; rich people. By โ€œnot our customersโ€ I do not mean we would never sell them a house should they want to buy one, but rather that the payback is so small on any kind of marketing campaign directed at them that it would just be wasted money better spent on our natural customers. We believe that our product lends itself to personal, powerful, purposeful neighborhoods that support people, cultures, and civilization as we know it. A small modular neighborhood might affect an older, established neighborhood in several ways. Generally, current owners are impacted by fear of the unknown, though very few cities in the US have experience with significant small modular home neighborhoods established in a conventional urban-scape. Current owners fear lower property values, which is reasonable given how much ugly freight has become attached to the label โ€œhomelessโ€, โ€œpoorโ€, and โ€œforeignโ€ here in the United States, making small modular housing developments politically very challenging. This can be reframed with names that positively associate starting over with strong American values or with mixed neighborhoods that have university students, recent grads, and newlyweds mixed in with formerly homeless people. A strong and active Home Owners Association, one that helps the new owners, not just penalizes them, would keep curb appeal high, keeping resale values high, and bringing more energy into the area, adding value to existing homes and neighborhoods. Moreover, the smaller lots allow denser populations which can increase city property tax income faster than service costs, making it a financial win for the city. There does not seem to be much to fear in an adverse economy like the current one where high interest rates and low inventories continue to impact sales of larger conventional houses. Adverse conditions for conventional markets appear well suited for smaller modular houses where buyers
  • 4. need to down size. Small modular houses can be constructed rapidly to a very high level of quality while to total purchase price of the structure keeps payments within reach of the low- income working family, even with higher interest rates. As America's middle class shrinks and our poor population grows, this may be their only access into real estate as a savings and retirement asset. This is one of the reasons why we believe we must transform the housing market for low-income buyers. Challenges for the small modular house market The single largest obstacle to a healthy, vibrant market for small modular houses is a vibrant, healthy, secondary market. We can continue to sell small, semi-custom-built homes for cash to those who can afford them, but without the ability to purchase these houses on a standard, conforming, tax-deductible mortgage, we freeze out most of our natural customers who simply cannot arrange a cash or unsecured loan to buy a small modular home. This also makes it all but impossible for the current owner to tap into the value increase of his building, assuming good market conditions. When it is time to sell their property, it also makes it impossible for the owner of the combination conventional home with a backyard modular structure to recoup the costs of the original purchase whether used as an office, studio, or elder-care accessory dwelling unit. This can be a large financial penalty as even a small modular structure with a number of significant upgrades can run the original purchase price to over $100,000. To fit the small modular home mortgage into the existing system, it has to be a โ€œconforming loanโ€, one that meets the rules of FHA, USDA, and the VA. This allows government backing, making things easier for everyone involved in the system, especially Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac who we want to buy the mortgage from the original lender and sell bundles of them to investors as is currently done with conventional, conforming loans. This allows the original lender to have more liquidity, which means they can make more loans, enabling more people to purchase a home. This is of particular interest for owners of small homes located in areas where they will turn over more rapidly than a conventional homes, such as near universities and vacation spots. This is not all bad as the bank gets to write a loan origination package somewhat more often than they would with a conventional house.
  • 5. So that the real estate machine can function smoothly, we need enough examples of conventional homes with mortgaged backyard modular structures in the local area to provide comparable values. Given the rules already in effect for mortgages, this is going to require time to allow people to purchase and install these structures for elder care, detached offices, workshops, studios, and the like while working with home owners associations, city zoning boards, local developers, and lenders in order to generate approvals and broader acceptance of these valuable detached buildings. Home Owners Associations are probably the single largest hurdle for backyard modular structures. We typically find HOAs in relatively expensive neighborhoods where appearances are considered to be very important to maintenance of property values and anything considered out of the ordinary has an uphill battle for approval. To transform the housing market, we must challenge and change these views. Showing how these modular structures can add value to their properties is a very good first step. The whole mission of the HOA can be summed up as โ€œvalue preservationโ€. If we can show how to increase values by adding a small modular structure, one that blends well with the existing architecture, we will have advanced quite a lot. City zoning boards are a mixed bag. Here in Mobile, Alabama, there is no minimum square footage and no minimum number of rooms to be a house. This is not true in other localities. In some places, a 400 square foot modular house would be below the minimum area threshold and require a zoning variance, especially if we are talking about an entirely new neighborhood in a city with no experience of these kinds of buildings. With that understood, there are good arguments that a developer can present to the city to justify a small neighborhood variance, not least of which is increased density while still preserving a suburban lifestyle without the need for exceptional additional city servicesโ€”one firehouse can cover a two hundred structure small modular neighborhood as well as it can a one hundred structure conventional neighborhood for the same cost, for example. The small modular building also has better resistance to potentially catastrophic weather events like hurricanes and tornadoes due to their smaller sizes, but standard sized framing elements.
  • 6. These buildings are not mobile homes, travel trailers, or recreational vehicles. They are built as solidly as any conventionally constructed house, just smaller so that the major structural components are closer together and therefore can handle higher loads without failure. Further, current technology factory-built modular houses can be constructed to minimize electrical and water requirements both because of added components and because of the generally lower occupancy rates of each structure. And because the MSF has precision plans for every structure it builds, it is relatively easy over time for a homeowner to add on to the initial structure, whether a new wing to one side or an additional story or both, by purchasing a semi- custom addition to his home, thereby increasing the value of the property as well as gaining additional space. Home insurance Insurance is another major obstacle as insurance is a major part of the borrower's monthly payment. A small modular home on an urban or suburban (or even rural) foundation with city services (water, electricity, gas, etc) is not a motorcycle, travel trailer, or mobile home, nor is it an RV. The risk profile is far lower, even lower than a conventionally constructed house because it is more resistant to catastrophic weather damage, and the customer should be charged accordingly. Yes, there are RV travel houses, but they are not the focus of this plan. Opportunity for urban renewal without losing the cheap housing. We believe that our product lends itself to personal, powerful, purposeful neighborhoods that support people, cultures, and civilization as we know it. Cities are cultural centers, creators of civilization, and have always been. Many US cities were devastated economically when many large manufacturing companies shut down their factories here in the United States and rebuilt them in foreign countries with nominally lower labor rates. US cities are therefore faced with decades of economic rebuilding in and around existing infrastructure, which is very expensive to replace, especially on a reduced tax base. More to the point, this existing infrastructure can be renewed and reused as new businesses, like small modular building factories and their associated suppliers, move into these openings. This is true urban renewal: the replacement of one industry with another, creating its own complex ecology of supporting businesses, which provide employment for thousands of people in direct, support, and ancillary industries. In urban renewal there is often a conversation about whether it is more efficient to rebuild or replace the existing housing stock, which are usually conventional houses, but usually sadly out
  • 7. of date in terms of insulation, electrical systems, and data connections. The structures are also sometimes sadly substandard with hazardous construction materials, coatings, and infestations of pests. And yet the styles of these houses, their similarity, are often the hallmarks of different neighborhoods, indicative of a particular cultural identity within the urban matrix. The small modular house neighborhood is one possible solution, and one that essentially funds itself, as all good ideas tend to do. Poor political refugees can get entry level jobs and yet still qualify to buy a small home in a nearby development, creating cultural diversity within the city and preserving their own cultural identity for perhaps three generations (Issei, Nisei, Sansei) before swirling into the multi-cultural Jackson Pollack painting that is what passes for culture in the present day United States. Some substandard housing is simply going to have to be torn down as not economically repairable, unless we are going to attach intangibles like โ€œneighborhood markerโ€ to a particular structure, in which case we are likely to end up building an entirely new house and sliding it under the street number. An expensive proposition, but worthy of discussion for the purposes of communicating neighborhood cultural identity. Other substandard houses can be rescued by remodelers, people who specialize in fixing up substandard houses exactly like these by running new lead-free pipe lines, installing modern Romex electrical systems from modern circuit breaker panels, installing new roofs and triple-glazed windows, repairing foundations, and insulating walls, ceilings, and floors to reduce the future carbon footprint to heat and cool. This may be an area where the Modular Structures Factory can utilize its production speed, precision build processes, and trained finish assemblers to rapidly construct add-ons and repair modules for existing houses faster and at a lower cost than a remodeler can. Maslow and healing neighborhoods We believe that our neighborhoods can be part of a program of healing and re-entry for those who for various reasons have been excluded from our culture, whether through homelessness or mental health issues. A therapeutic neighborhood could be a purpose-designed and -built housing development, either greenfield or brownfield, extending from a central core of offices designed and intended to provide outreach services to those in need: financial, VA, health care, legal as well as the more fundamental things such as food, shelter, water, hygiene, and connection to other people.
  • 8. Farther up the hierarchy of needs, people need personal security (doors with locks where they hold the keys, 24/7 building or neighborhood security), and a job. In our society, our culture, no one without a job has any security at all. These people know that. They were just living that life. They also need physical health care, mental health care, hearing and vision care, dentistry, and emotional therapy, services that can all be based in the central core of the neighborhood on at least an occasional basis. These people need to regain their health: mental and physical. Granted, not every person in need can be healed through this program. As the saying goes: I can't cure world hunger, but I can share my sandwich. Some people will not benefit and we need to be mindful of this and be willing to manage their transfer to more suitable programs. People need to own their own goods and property again, things no one can take away from them: clothing, bedding, glasses, a watch, a phone, some inexpensive furniture. External indicia of personal progress from homelessness to that of stable, valued citizen with a job who makes a contribution every day. With health and security handled, they need groups to belong to groups with shared experiencesโ€”whether some sort of 12 Step program, a veterans PTSD therapy group, or people dealing with other traumatic life issues. They need connections to other people. They need to make friends, perhaps even reestablish communication with their family of origin, or select an entirely new group of people to act as an intentional, surrogate family, one that is safe to be around. The intent is to find or create a sense of connection and a sense of safety, belonging, and intimacy, which are crucial for humans. Site security is clearly an essential part of the matrix. Keeping thieves, robbers, abusive spouses and parents out of the neighborhood gives people a chance to decompress and think, to reorder their lives in constructive ways. Security personnelโ€”including off-duty policeโ€”can be recruited from the surrounding area at first, but supplemented over time with resident veterans (police and military) who are emotionally stable enough to perform well without snapping or regressing. Working in small, supportive groups, the same groups that they attend therapy with, may be a good solution.
  • 9. With a job, health care, friends, and a sense of connection to the group, the neighborhood, people need respect within their groups, status, and recognition of who they are as people and how they contribute in order to build up their strength and so they can move towards personal freedom. At that point, the last peak to scale is self-actualization, that internal need to become all that one can be. Hence this plan. This plan is part of my own sense of self-actualization. Everyone reading this plan is already self-actualized or you would not be operating at this level. You have already passed through all the other stages that so many people simply do not have the resourcesโ€” internal or externalโ€”to achieve. Congratulations. In all seriousness, that is a massive achievement. Now it is time to pay it forward to others. The Factory Itself The technology is small factory-built modular structuresโ€”generally housesโ€”with precision tooling and supplemental automation where it makes sense. We have had modern factory built modular homes for forty years or more, much longer than that if you want to count military Quonset huts and the like. There is nothing wrong with the technology. It has been thoroughly tested and in most cases is actually better than site-built because weather is not a problem during construction and the addition of large, fast, high precision, automated machinery to the production stream is easy and it produces a better product. Our initial target production rate would be ten structures a week. It will take time to build up to that number, but once the right people and processes are in place, and partnering with the right suppliers, that rate is very achievable. With further experience, we may be able to edge up to eighty structures a week, depending on the site. Each of these structures would sell for between $60,000 to $100,000 each. At our initial target, that is approximately $800,000 per week revenue on average, and assuming a 60% net, would produce almost half a million dollars per week in operating income, which would enable the MSF to pay for itself quickly. The labor pool is the most critical production factor. An indoor modular factory also allows for the site to work two fully productive shifts per day, year round, regardless of the weather. Technically, we could work three shifts per day, but that last shift is the least productive and does not allow either of the other shifts time to catch up on tasks that were not accomplished on schedule, nor does it allow for integrated plant maintenance. A full three-shift industrial site would have to be shut down completely for weeks per year to catch up on necessary maintenance and repair tasks. Automation has been made practical for our use because of the proliferation of 3-D design software and how far this technology has penetrated into the house-building industry. Part definitions can be loaded into a machine and with an assigned material handler, a full kit of wall studs, door and window beams, ceiling and floor joists, roof trusses, all with various systems provisions can be fabricated quickly, precisely,
  • 10. repeatably, and efficiently. These parts can quickly located in jigs and other tooling to allow rapid, accurate assembly of various modules that can then be stored awaiting an order or put immediately on the production line. It makes kitting of an entire modular structure a real possibility, which can improve the flow rate, reducing variable costs while providing more units over which to amortize the fixed costs of automation and tooling. We can cost-effectively store the entire structure of a small modular building, but not the interior appointments, because we only make a small number of sizes in a small number of floor plans. The kit will not stay in the warehouse very long. We rely on options for differentiation, not a proliferation of sizes and floor plans. The labor pool is an interesting question. In all the cases of which I am aware, we must have a general contractor (GC) on staff along with a licensed plumber (LP) and a licensed electrician (LE). Those are heads of departments along with others such as Inspection, Sales & Marketing, Materials, Machine Operators, Architecture & Engineering, Administration, and the like. The GC handles structure and most of the finish work. The LP and LE are responsible for overseeing the installation of their systems, which will also include a fair amount of finish work during final assembly. The finish work is the longest flow item in the plan. Dry wall, doors, flooring, baseboards, cabinetry, plumbing fixtures, electrical fixtures, glazing, systems testing, interior and exterior paint, etc. The MSF must hire good people and pay to keep them while continuing to educate and train them so that they become ever more valuable contributors to the company, potentially forming the core cadre of senior people needed to open a new MSF in a different city. Trained and experienced interior installers are likely to be our first labor bottleneck, an issue that can be constructively addressed by hiring graduates of the local vo-tech schools who studied the building trades and training them up to contribute effectively and efficiently to our style of building. Coming to work for the Modular Structures Factory for a year or two can give the recent vo-tech graduates new skills and understanding, allowing them to seek work elsewhere as a finish carpenter, plumber, or electrician. The MSF can become a transitional โ€œfinishing schoolโ€ for a new generation of workers in the trades. The roof is constructed separately and is structurally attached weather-tight to the base structure for strength before the completed structure can be sent to final assembly. Glazing, solar panels, roofing materials, insulation, decking, trusses, etc. Everything but the Christmas lights, and the electrical crew will connect outdoor outlets for that sort of thing if ordered as an option. After final assembly, the building is loaded onto a special, adjustable low-boy truck trailer to move it to its new home. Each state has its own legal definition for an oversize load. If we can keep inside those dimensions and just pay an annual license, things go faster and easier as the factory will be better able to control its own destiny in terms of deliveries. This is the biggest reason to prefer a manufacturing site that is immediately adjacent to a major highway or interstate.
  • 11. The building will be moved to its new site where it will be structurally installed on a pier and beam foundation (a zoning ordinance requirement for accessory units here in Mobile) or onto slabs or other foundations according to their zoning requirements, making these very resistant to weather damage. Generally speaking, we would not want to drive farther than two hours from the factory as that makes it all but impossible for each truck to deliver two houses per day; maintenance activities can be limited to the second shift so that the truck is always fully available during the day. If we are producing at only two houses per day (our initial target production rate), we can scrape by with one truck and two installation crews. The truck would drop off the new structure at the new site and the installation crew hooks it up to the foundation and utilities, ensuring everything works the way its supposed to. As the production rate increases, we can add more trucks and installation crews. For the Modular Structures Factory to grow and expand, we will need cadres of trained and experienced people who are willing and able to move to a new city. With that core of competent senior people, standing up a new factory will take a small fraction of the time it will take to stand up the first factory. This presumes that the ground has been prepared by company lawyers and associated developers who have zoning variances in work or already approved. Conclusion We believe that opening the housing market to allow poor people to buy small, high quality, entry level homes in small, supportive neighborhoods can transform the face of America and therefore the world. The small Modular Structures Factory is a concept that can work in other parts of the world, not just in the United States. It can provide poor people with jobs, services, and even homes in slums all around the world. And it can do this with a minimal impact on the environment.