The document summarizes trends in Berlin's population, labor market, property market, and housing policies that will impact property prices. It notes that while Berlin's population growth remains high, signs point to a slowing. Unemployment is dropping as venture financing reaches all-time highs. However, household sizes are decreasing as building permits decline since 2017 due to policies discouraging rental construction. As a result, prices for vacant properties will continue rising while long-term rented properties may stagnate or reduce. The price gap between vacant and rented units will increase.

1. February 10th, 2020
Berlin Property Forum
Mietendeckel:
Trends/Predictions for the Berlin Property Market

2. https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/154880/umfrage/entwicklung-der-bevoelkerung-von-berlin-seit-1961/
Berlin population growth (1990-2018)

3. Population growth still high but signs of slowing
https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/publikationen/stat_berichte/2019/SB_A01-05-00_2019h01_BE.pdf

4. https://www.berlin.de/sen/wirtschaft/wirtschaft/konjunktur-und-statistik/wirtschaftsdaten/beschaeftigung/
Labor force development

5. Unemployment in Berlin dropping
(2001-2019)
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/2519/umfrage/entwicklung-der-arbeitslosenquote-in-berlin-seit-1999/

6. https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2019/07/venture-pulse-q2-2019-europe.pdf
Venture financing in Berlin at all-time high
(2012-2019)

7. Private household size decreasing in Germany
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Population/Households-Families/Tables/projection-household.html

8. Interest rate development (2000-2018)

9. Purchase price development (2012-2019)
https://www.morgenpost.de/berlin/article227776129/So-teuer-ist-eine-Eigentumswohnung-in-Berlin.html

10. Rental price development (2004-2018)
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/535119/umfrage/mietpreise-auf-dem-wohnungsmarkt-in-berlin/

11. What is being done to fix the shortage of
residential housing in Berlin?

12. Building permits declining since 2017
https://www.morgenpost.de/berlin/article216436155/Wohnungsbau-in-Berlin-geraet-ins-Stocken.html

13. Lack of supply: project developers building fewer rentals +
more residential
- Berlin has created anti-investor climate
- Developers are not incentivised to build
rentals (>30% must be social housing)
- Long waiting periods for permits
- Shift towards construction of residentials
- Still insufficient supply of vacant units

14. What does it mean for residential property prices?
➢ Prices for vacant units will continue increasing
➢ Long-term rented properties will experience price stagnation + reduction
➢ Price gap between vacant and rented will increase (15-30%)

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