Thanks to PDN member, Dr. Robert W. (Bill) Gilmer, our members had the opportunity to hear directly from a top official of the Mexican equivalent of the U. S. Federal Reserve. In light of recent developments on both sides of the border and our organization’s new responsibilities, this is a timely and worthwhile presentation. You may especially want to note:
- Slide 9 which displays Public Debt and Fiscal Deficits as a Percent of GDP. Note how the U. S. compares to Mexico.
- Slides 27 – 29 which provide the economic outlook for Mexico.
Clustering of unhealthy behaviours over time: implications for policy and pra...The King's Fund
This document discusses a study analyzing trends in multiple unhealthy lifestyle behaviors in England over time. The study found:
1) Overall improvements from 2003 to 2008, with a 20% drop in people exhibiting 3-4 risky behaviors, however 70% still had 2+ risks.
2) Most improvements came from higher socioeconomic groups, while risks increased in poorer groups, widening inequalities.
3) Addressing individual behaviors may not be sufficient - an integrated approach targeting people's overall lifestyles is needed, along with more targeted policies to reduce health inequalities.
This document summarizes research on the declining school-aged population in Michigan and the resulting impact on educational facilities. It finds that Michigan's K-12 population is projected to decrease by 7.6% between 2000-2030, resulting in an estimated excess of 6,000 classrooms statewide. Many school districts will see enrollment drop by 10-50% over this period. Case studies of individual districts show that maintaining unused facilities will be financially challenging. Strategies like consolidation, repurposing buildings, and planned closures will be needed to align school capacity with enrollment and reduce costs. The economic downturn has further accelerated the decline in some areas.
Cafe Vitality is a restaurant designed for young professionals to relax after work or exercise. It aims to rejuvenate customers with a soothing yet lively environment inspired by nature's beauty. The space provides vitality and energy for recharging one's mind and body.
The document discusses the challenges facing the power supply in Texas. Growing demand for natural gas and reliance on gas-fired generation has increased price volatility and placed the power supply at risk. This is further complicated by Texas' rapidly growing population that will strain existing generation capacity and aging infrastructure. The options for improving the situation each have tradeoffs that must be considered.
презентация для инвесторов, ноябрь 2011evraz_company
This corporate presentation provides an overview of EVRAZ, a large, vertically integrated steel and mining company. Some key points:
- EVRAZ is one of the largest steel and mining companies globally, with operations spanning Russia, Europe, North America, and Asia.
- It has low-cost, efficient operations due to vertical integration and a focus on production.
- Financial results for 1H 2011 showed increases in revenue, gross profit, EBITDA, and net profit compared to the prior year period.
- The presentation highlights EVRAZ's size, geographic reach, investment opportunities, and track record of growth.
The maquiladora industry began in 1965 in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico as a response to high unemployment along the US-Mexico border. Ciudad Juarez now hosts over 300 maquiladora plants and is a major manufacturing center in North America, specializing in automotive, electronics, medical, and other sectors. The maquiladora industry benefits from Ciudad Juarez's solid infrastructure and business environment, including its young, skilled workforce and connections to key US markets.
This document provides an overview of the maquiladora industry in Mexico, with a focus on Chihuahua state and Ciudad Juarez. It summarizes that as of February 2011, there were over 5,000 maquiladora plants in Mexico, with Chihuahua state and Ciudad Juarez accounting for 69.4% and 54% of plants respectively. Workforce statistics are also presented, showing over 1.8 million people employed in the maquiladora industry across Mexico as of April 2011, with over 192,000 employed in Ciudad Juarez. Foreign investment, trade, and security statistics relating to the maquiladora industry in Chihuahua and Ciudad Ju
The document discusses the global economic outlook for Q1 2011. It notes that advanced economies are experiencing slowing GDP growth rates, some nearing recession levels again, while Singapore continues growing steadily at around 4%. It also shows charts depicting declines in investment spending, industrial production, and exports in advanced economies as signs their recoveries are weakening, making these countries like "canaries in the coal mine" warning of broader global economic troubles.
Clustering of unhealthy behaviours over time: implications for policy and pra...The King's Fund
This document discusses a study analyzing trends in multiple unhealthy lifestyle behaviors in England over time. The study found:
1) Overall improvements from 2003 to 2008, with a 20% drop in people exhibiting 3-4 risky behaviors, however 70% still had 2+ risks.
2) Most improvements came from higher socioeconomic groups, while risks increased in poorer groups, widening inequalities.
3) Addressing individual behaviors may not be sufficient - an integrated approach targeting people's overall lifestyles is needed, along with more targeted policies to reduce health inequalities.
This document summarizes research on the declining school-aged population in Michigan and the resulting impact on educational facilities. It finds that Michigan's K-12 population is projected to decrease by 7.6% between 2000-2030, resulting in an estimated excess of 6,000 classrooms statewide. Many school districts will see enrollment drop by 10-50% over this period. Case studies of individual districts show that maintaining unused facilities will be financially challenging. Strategies like consolidation, repurposing buildings, and planned closures will be needed to align school capacity with enrollment and reduce costs. The economic downturn has further accelerated the decline in some areas.
Cafe Vitality is a restaurant designed for young professionals to relax after work or exercise. It aims to rejuvenate customers with a soothing yet lively environment inspired by nature's beauty. The space provides vitality and energy for recharging one's mind and body.
The document discusses the challenges facing the power supply in Texas. Growing demand for natural gas and reliance on gas-fired generation has increased price volatility and placed the power supply at risk. This is further complicated by Texas' rapidly growing population that will strain existing generation capacity and aging infrastructure. The options for improving the situation each have tradeoffs that must be considered.
презентация для инвесторов, ноябрь 2011evraz_company
This corporate presentation provides an overview of EVRAZ, a large, vertically integrated steel and mining company. Some key points:
- EVRAZ is one of the largest steel and mining companies globally, with operations spanning Russia, Europe, North America, and Asia.
- It has low-cost, efficient operations due to vertical integration and a focus on production.
- Financial results for 1H 2011 showed increases in revenue, gross profit, EBITDA, and net profit compared to the prior year period.
- The presentation highlights EVRAZ's size, geographic reach, investment opportunities, and track record of growth.
The maquiladora industry began in 1965 in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico as a response to high unemployment along the US-Mexico border. Ciudad Juarez now hosts over 300 maquiladora plants and is a major manufacturing center in North America, specializing in automotive, electronics, medical, and other sectors. The maquiladora industry benefits from Ciudad Juarez's solid infrastructure and business environment, including its young, skilled workforce and connections to key US markets.
This document provides an overview of the maquiladora industry in Mexico, with a focus on Chihuahua state and Ciudad Juarez. It summarizes that as of February 2011, there were over 5,000 maquiladora plants in Mexico, with Chihuahua state and Ciudad Juarez accounting for 69.4% and 54% of plants respectively. Workforce statistics are also presented, showing over 1.8 million people employed in the maquiladora industry across Mexico as of April 2011, with over 192,000 employed in Ciudad Juarez. Foreign investment, trade, and security statistics relating to the maquiladora industry in Chihuahua and Ciudad Ju
The document discusses the global economic outlook for Q1 2011. It notes that advanced economies are experiencing slowing GDP growth rates, some nearing recession levels again, while Singapore continues growing steadily at around 4%. It also shows charts depicting declines in investment spending, industrial production, and exports in advanced economies as signs their recoveries are weakening, making these countries like "canaries in the coal mine" warning of broader global economic troubles.
The document provides information on the Irongate Global Strategy Fund Limited, a fund of hedge funds. It seeks capital preservation, appreciation and superior risk-adjusted returns with low correlation to traditional markets. The fund invests with experienced managers employing strategies like macro, long/short equities, emerging markets, fixed income arbitrage, and more. Performance figures for 2004-2008 are provided showing the fund outperforming benchmarks like the MSCI World Index and HFRI Fund of Funds Composite Index over various periods.
- The Chester Global Strategy Fund is a fund of hedge funds that seeks capital preservation, appreciation, and superior risk-adjusted returns with low correlation to equity and fixed income markets.
- In July 2008, the fund was down 4.77% month-to-date and had a net asset value of 94.32. Its largest strategies by allocation were multi-strategy, credit and distressed, and event-driven.
- Over its lifetime, the fund has averaged annual returns of 9.72% with lower volatility than equity benchmarks, as measured by standard deviation.
The document summarizes a 3-month test of APSE TM mosquito control products. Various versions of APSE TM were added to buckets of water at concentrations of 300, 600, and 900 ppm, while untreated control buckets were also used. The buckets were monitored over time to compare larval population levels between treated and untreated buckets. Observations showed that APSE TM products 1 and 2 initially took around 3 weeks to show full effectiveness in controlling larval populations compared to the controls.
Frisco, Texas is the fastest growing city in the United States, reaching a population of over 110,000. The median age of residents is 34, and 74% of the population is under age 45. The median household income is $101,574. Approximately 46% of Frisco's land area has been developed so far.
The Global Divergence of Social NetworkingMarcello Mari
The document is an infographic showing the change in the number of social media users in different countries from 2009 to 2011. It depicts countries like Canada, the Netherlands, and Australia having increases of 10-20 million users, while countries like Japan, Italy, Spain, and Germany had decreases ranging from 1-2.5 million users. The infographic highlights how China has seen vast growth in social media usage across all demographics during this period.
The document discusses value investing in India. It notes that India offers strong macroeconomic resilience and earnings growth potential across sectors like infrastructure, IT, auto and pharma. Value investing involves buying stocks at a discount to their intrinsic value with a long-term hold strategy. The strategy aims to benefit from compound returns by investing in high-quality businesses trading at attractive valuations. It uses a bottom-up approach focusing on companies with strong returns on capital and trading at a margin of safety. The strategy constructs a concentrated portfolio of 15-20 stocks following strict buy price discipline.
1) The document presents the Motilal Oswal MOSt 10 Year Gilt Fund, an open-ended gilt scheme that will invest predominantly in 10-year benchmark government securities.
2) It analyzes factors like slowing growth, high inflation, and tight liquidity that have led to rising interest rates in India, suggesting rates may decline going forward.
3) The fund aims to benefit from falling interest rates by investing in long duration 10-year government bonds, providing a pure play on the interest rate cycle with low credit risk.
Democracy is described as a system of kufr (disbelief) that is forbidden in Islam. It originated from ideas promoting separation of religion from governance and giving authority to the people. Democracy is established on the principles that sovereignty belongs to the people and that the people are the source of authority. It is defined as rule by the majority, where laws and leaders are chosen by majority vote.
1. The document describes the sustainable features of a home including solar hot water panels, energy star appliances, low-VOC materials, daylighting windows, drought tolerant landscaping, water efficient fixtures, stormwater management, and recycled content materials.
2. The home meets or exceeds energy star requirements and has structural insulated panels, spray foam insulation, and a ventilated rainscreen for high performance walls.
3. Diagrams show the home's passive and active heating/cooling strategies like radiant heat, operable windows, thermal mass, and night air flushing.
Tablet ownership has increased significantly from 2011 to 2012, especially in more affluent markets. In 2012, 11% of people in developed markets owned tablets, compared to only 6% in 2011. Ownership in emerging Tier 1 markets increased to 5% from 2% over the same period. Tablet ownership remains relatively low in emerging Tier 2 markets, where only 1% of people owned tablets in both 2011 and 2012.
1) In 2008, Diamond Foods achieved strong sales growth and profit increases despite high input costs, through a strategic acquisition and expanding its retail platform.
2) Diamond acquired Pop Secret, a leading microwave popcorn brand, to strengthen its snack portfolio and leverage supply chain efficiencies.
3) Diamond reported net sales of over $531 million in 2008, a 16% increase in its culinary business, and earnings per share growth of 72% to $0.91.
The 10 reasons SMEs choose SAP are:
1) SAP is a recognized industry leader
2) SAP offers complete, integrated solutions for SMEs
3) SAP provides choices in solutions, deployment, and licensing models
4) SAP has expertise in 24 industries to help businesses
5) SAP helps customers see value fast through rapid deployment and templates
6) SAP analytics solutions provide insights from data
7) SAP delivers innovations through R&D investments and acquisitions
8) SAP solutions adapt and scale as businesses grow
9) SAP supports customers globally with local offices
10) SAP's ecosystem expands options through a large partner and customer
Option Implied Volatility for Small Cap StocksRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
June financing well ahead of average: Financing in the Web 2.0 universe in June was the third highest month (over the past 12) with total transaction value (excluding M&A) of $459.6 million from 51 transactions, averaging $9.0 million each - led by the $147 million Zynga financing. In comparison, total capital raised in June 2009 was $226.3 million, averaging $4.5 million over 50 deals. Excluding Dec 09 and Apr 10, the average monthly total is ~$260 million.
Deals (M&A, Finance)
Alloy, a provider of news and commentary concerning New Media, was acquired by ZelnickMedia for $127 mm.
Facebook’s implied valuation rose to $24 bn as Elevation Partners purchased 5 mm shares of the company for $120 mm in the secondary market.
Danish Skype competitor, Vopium, received $16.5 mm in financing from Indian financier, Raghuvinder Kataria.
Social networking software developer based in France, Pearltrees, raised $1.6 mm.
PapayaMobile, mobile application software company based in China, raised $4 mm.
Two Israeli mobile developers received funding this week, including Perfecto Mobile ($4 mm) and Snaptu ($6 mm).
Negative price performance
The Web 2.0 public company universe fell this week, with 68% of companies seeing their market cap fall vs. 25% rising and 7% flat.
This document contains data from experiments measuring the effects of different culture conditions on hepatocyte-like cells over time. The data shows that culturing the cells with fetal calf serum and a trophic factor led to increased albumin production and ATP levels compared to culturing with just fetal calf serum. Imaging data also indicated that the cells cultured with the trophic factor exhibited increased induction.
Slow start in May after record April: Total transaction value (excluding M&A) in the Web 2.0 universe for April was $813.5 million - the highest monthly total we have recorded. The number of financings was also a record, at 49, averaging $16.6 million each. Note that this includes the $300 million investment in DST by Tencent. Excluding this transaction, the average is $10.7 million. May 2010, in contrast, has started slowly, with only $37.4 million in financing announced thus far, averaging just $3.4 million across 11 deals. In comparison, total capital raised in May 2009 was $375.0 million, averaging $12.5 million over 30 deals.
Deal round-up for May: The large deal highlights for the month include:
Fluid Music (TSX:FMN, digital music distributor) will acquire Mood Media (provider of sensorial marketing solutions) for €160 mm.
Lithium is purchasing analytics developer, Scout Labs, for $20 mm.
Fatfoogoo (purveyor of virtual goods) is being acquired by Digital River for $10 mm.
Groupalia, the Spanish answer to online group discount retailers, Groupon and LivingSocial, raised $2.5 mm in a Series A financing – the online group discounters have been raising money quickly (DST invested $135 mm in Groupon in April) with a total of $222 mm in funding coming to just these three players thus far.
Bearish week again: Price performance was largely negative in our Web 2.0 universe, with prices dropping for over 70% of the companies.
This document discusses bringing advising to the core of higher education in Ohio. It outlines the long effort to provide high-touch student support services and the rationale for increased advisor support based on audit results showing that most institutions provide only basic information services. A customer relationship management (CRM) tool is proposed to help coordinate advising across institutions. The Ohio Learning Network operated a support center but it has been discontinued due to reorganization. Potential partners for a new CRM system are identified.
The document introduces Y Worlds Cooperative, which aims to build a system for organizing and visually communicating knowledge through its "Visual Y" language. Visual Y uses dynamic patterns and representations, rather than linear text, to convey complex systems and interactions across different scales of time and space. The goal is to overcome limitations of existing forms of knowledge transmission and better understand complexity through visualization. Y Worlds is guided by principles of Nurture, Equality, Truth and Systems to pursue objective, compassionate consciousness and maximize human potential.
The document discusses Sterling Insurance's latest broker survey results and new product launches. Some key findings from the survey showed high satisfaction with training courses and claims service. The newly launched Executive products also received positive feedback. Sterling will use the survey results to improve broker relationships, communications, and products. They launched two new Executive products - Executive Asset and Executive Professions. Sterling also held various events to introduce brokers to the new products and changes to Executive Plus.
New Visa Rules for Tourists and Students in Thailand | Amit Kakkar Easy VisaAmit Kakkar
Discover essential details about Thailand's recent visa policy changes, tailored for tourists and students. Amit Kakkar Easy Visa provides a comprehensive overview of new requirements, application processes, and tips to ensure a smooth transition for all travelers.
The document provides information on the Irongate Global Strategy Fund Limited, a fund of hedge funds. It seeks capital preservation, appreciation and superior risk-adjusted returns with low correlation to traditional markets. The fund invests with experienced managers employing strategies like macro, long/short equities, emerging markets, fixed income arbitrage, and more. Performance figures for 2004-2008 are provided showing the fund outperforming benchmarks like the MSCI World Index and HFRI Fund of Funds Composite Index over various periods.
- The Chester Global Strategy Fund is a fund of hedge funds that seeks capital preservation, appreciation, and superior risk-adjusted returns with low correlation to equity and fixed income markets.
- In July 2008, the fund was down 4.77% month-to-date and had a net asset value of 94.32. Its largest strategies by allocation were multi-strategy, credit and distressed, and event-driven.
- Over its lifetime, the fund has averaged annual returns of 9.72% with lower volatility than equity benchmarks, as measured by standard deviation.
The document summarizes a 3-month test of APSE TM mosquito control products. Various versions of APSE TM were added to buckets of water at concentrations of 300, 600, and 900 ppm, while untreated control buckets were also used. The buckets were monitored over time to compare larval population levels between treated and untreated buckets. Observations showed that APSE TM products 1 and 2 initially took around 3 weeks to show full effectiveness in controlling larval populations compared to the controls.
Frisco, Texas is the fastest growing city in the United States, reaching a population of over 110,000. The median age of residents is 34, and 74% of the population is under age 45. The median household income is $101,574. Approximately 46% of Frisco's land area has been developed so far.
The Global Divergence of Social NetworkingMarcello Mari
The document is an infographic showing the change in the number of social media users in different countries from 2009 to 2011. It depicts countries like Canada, the Netherlands, and Australia having increases of 10-20 million users, while countries like Japan, Italy, Spain, and Germany had decreases ranging from 1-2.5 million users. The infographic highlights how China has seen vast growth in social media usage across all demographics during this period.
The document discusses value investing in India. It notes that India offers strong macroeconomic resilience and earnings growth potential across sectors like infrastructure, IT, auto and pharma. Value investing involves buying stocks at a discount to their intrinsic value with a long-term hold strategy. The strategy aims to benefit from compound returns by investing in high-quality businesses trading at attractive valuations. It uses a bottom-up approach focusing on companies with strong returns on capital and trading at a margin of safety. The strategy constructs a concentrated portfolio of 15-20 stocks following strict buy price discipline.
1) The document presents the Motilal Oswal MOSt 10 Year Gilt Fund, an open-ended gilt scheme that will invest predominantly in 10-year benchmark government securities.
2) It analyzes factors like slowing growth, high inflation, and tight liquidity that have led to rising interest rates in India, suggesting rates may decline going forward.
3) The fund aims to benefit from falling interest rates by investing in long duration 10-year government bonds, providing a pure play on the interest rate cycle with low credit risk.
Democracy is described as a system of kufr (disbelief) that is forbidden in Islam. It originated from ideas promoting separation of religion from governance and giving authority to the people. Democracy is established on the principles that sovereignty belongs to the people and that the people are the source of authority. It is defined as rule by the majority, where laws and leaders are chosen by majority vote.
1. The document describes the sustainable features of a home including solar hot water panels, energy star appliances, low-VOC materials, daylighting windows, drought tolerant landscaping, water efficient fixtures, stormwater management, and recycled content materials.
2. The home meets or exceeds energy star requirements and has structural insulated panels, spray foam insulation, and a ventilated rainscreen for high performance walls.
3. Diagrams show the home's passive and active heating/cooling strategies like radiant heat, operable windows, thermal mass, and night air flushing.
Tablet ownership has increased significantly from 2011 to 2012, especially in more affluent markets. In 2012, 11% of people in developed markets owned tablets, compared to only 6% in 2011. Ownership in emerging Tier 1 markets increased to 5% from 2% over the same period. Tablet ownership remains relatively low in emerging Tier 2 markets, where only 1% of people owned tablets in both 2011 and 2012.
1) In 2008, Diamond Foods achieved strong sales growth and profit increases despite high input costs, through a strategic acquisition and expanding its retail platform.
2) Diamond acquired Pop Secret, a leading microwave popcorn brand, to strengthen its snack portfolio and leverage supply chain efficiencies.
3) Diamond reported net sales of over $531 million in 2008, a 16% increase in its culinary business, and earnings per share growth of 72% to $0.91.
The 10 reasons SMEs choose SAP are:
1) SAP is a recognized industry leader
2) SAP offers complete, integrated solutions for SMEs
3) SAP provides choices in solutions, deployment, and licensing models
4) SAP has expertise in 24 industries to help businesses
5) SAP helps customers see value fast through rapid deployment and templates
6) SAP analytics solutions provide insights from data
7) SAP delivers innovations through R&D investments and acquisitions
8) SAP solutions adapt and scale as businesses grow
9) SAP supports customers globally with local offices
10) SAP's ecosystem expands options through a large partner and customer
Option Implied Volatility for Small Cap StocksRYAN RENICKER
Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
June financing well ahead of average: Financing in the Web 2.0 universe in June was the third highest month (over the past 12) with total transaction value (excluding M&A) of $459.6 million from 51 transactions, averaging $9.0 million each - led by the $147 million Zynga financing. In comparison, total capital raised in June 2009 was $226.3 million, averaging $4.5 million over 50 deals. Excluding Dec 09 and Apr 10, the average monthly total is ~$260 million.
Deals (M&A, Finance)
Alloy, a provider of news and commentary concerning New Media, was acquired by ZelnickMedia for $127 mm.
Facebook’s implied valuation rose to $24 bn as Elevation Partners purchased 5 mm shares of the company for $120 mm in the secondary market.
Danish Skype competitor, Vopium, received $16.5 mm in financing from Indian financier, Raghuvinder Kataria.
Social networking software developer based in France, Pearltrees, raised $1.6 mm.
PapayaMobile, mobile application software company based in China, raised $4 mm.
Two Israeli mobile developers received funding this week, including Perfecto Mobile ($4 mm) and Snaptu ($6 mm).
Negative price performance
The Web 2.0 public company universe fell this week, with 68% of companies seeing their market cap fall vs. 25% rising and 7% flat.
This document contains data from experiments measuring the effects of different culture conditions on hepatocyte-like cells over time. The data shows that culturing the cells with fetal calf serum and a trophic factor led to increased albumin production and ATP levels compared to culturing with just fetal calf serum. Imaging data also indicated that the cells cultured with the trophic factor exhibited increased induction.
Slow start in May after record April: Total transaction value (excluding M&A) in the Web 2.0 universe for April was $813.5 million - the highest monthly total we have recorded. The number of financings was also a record, at 49, averaging $16.6 million each. Note that this includes the $300 million investment in DST by Tencent. Excluding this transaction, the average is $10.7 million. May 2010, in contrast, has started slowly, with only $37.4 million in financing announced thus far, averaging just $3.4 million across 11 deals. In comparison, total capital raised in May 2009 was $375.0 million, averaging $12.5 million over 30 deals.
Deal round-up for May: The large deal highlights for the month include:
Fluid Music (TSX:FMN, digital music distributor) will acquire Mood Media (provider of sensorial marketing solutions) for €160 mm.
Lithium is purchasing analytics developer, Scout Labs, for $20 mm.
Fatfoogoo (purveyor of virtual goods) is being acquired by Digital River for $10 mm.
Groupalia, the Spanish answer to online group discount retailers, Groupon and LivingSocial, raised $2.5 mm in a Series A financing – the online group discounters have been raising money quickly (DST invested $135 mm in Groupon in April) with a total of $222 mm in funding coming to just these three players thus far.
Bearish week again: Price performance was largely negative in our Web 2.0 universe, with prices dropping for over 70% of the companies.
This document discusses bringing advising to the core of higher education in Ohio. It outlines the long effort to provide high-touch student support services and the rationale for increased advisor support based on audit results showing that most institutions provide only basic information services. A customer relationship management (CRM) tool is proposed to help coordinate advising across institutions. The Ohio Learning Network operated a support center but it has been discontinued due to reorganization. Potential partners for a new CRM system are identified.
The document introduces Y Worlds Cooperative, which aims to build a system for organizing and visually communicating knowledge through its "Visual Y" language. Visual Y uses dynamic patterns and representations, rather than linear text, to convey complex systems and interactions across different scales of time and space. The goal is to overcome limitations of existing forms of knowledge transmission and better understand complexity through visualization. Y Worlds is guided by principles of Nurture, Equality, Truth and Systems to pursue objective, compassionate consciousness and maximize human potential.
The document discusses Sterling Insurance's latest broker survey results and new product launches. Some key findings from the survey showed high satisfaction with training courses and claims service. The newly launched Executive products also received positive feedback. Sterling will use the survey results to improve broker relationships, communications, and products. They launched two new Executive products - Executive Asset and Executive Professions. Sterling also held various events to introduce brokers to the new products and changes to Executive Plus.
Similar to May 18, Special Breakfast Roundtable – Federico Rubli Kaiser, Banco de Mexico (20)
New Visa Rules for Tourists and Students in Thailand | Amit Kakkar Easy VisaAmit Kakkar
Discover essential details about Thailand's recent visa policy changes, tailored for tourists and students. Amit Kakkar Easy Visa provides a comprehensive overview of new requirements, application processes, and tips to ensure a smooth transition for all travelers.
Every business, big or small, deals with outgoing payments. Whether it’s to suppliers for inventory, to employees for salaries, or to vendors for services rendered, keeping track of these expenses is crucial. This is where payment vouchers come in – the unsung heroes of the accounting world.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Optimizing Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the Financial Sector (With Examples).pdfshruti1menon2
NIM is calculated as the difference between interest income earned and interest expenses paid, divided by interest-earning assets.
Importance: NIM serves as a critical measure of a financial institution's profitability and operational efficiency. It reflects how effectively the institution is utilizing its interest-earning assets to generate income while managing interest costs.
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
May 18, Special Breakfast Roundtable – Federico Rubli Kaiser, Banco de Mexico
1. The Mexican Economy: Recent
Developments and Outlook
Dallas FED Federico Rubli Kaiser*/
The Paso del Norte Group External Relations Director
El Paso, Texas Banco de México
May 18, 2010 frubli@banxico.org.mx
*/ The opinions expressed may not necessarily coincide with the institution’s official views.
2. Contents
1. The World Economy
2. The Mexican Economy
3. Final Remarks
4. Appendix: Mexico’s Exchange Rate
3. Gross Domestic Product1/ Balance of Bank Credit to the Non-
(Annualized Quarterly Financial Private Sector
% Change ) (Annual % Change)
12 15
Forecast
10
8
10
6
4
5
2
0
-2 0
-4
-6 United States 2/
World -5
-8 Eurozone 3/
Advanced
-10 Japan 4/
Emerging
-12 -10
Ene-08
Ene-09
Ene-04
Ene-05
Ene-06
Ene-07
I 2005
I 2006
I 2007
I 2008
I 2009
I 2010
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
III 2005
III 2006
III 2007
III 2008
III 2009
III 2010
1/ Adjusted for purchasing power parity. 2/ Commercial, industrial, & consumer loans, and mortgages.
Source: IMF. 3/ Loans to the non-financial private sector.
4/ Total loans to the private sector.
Source: Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of Japan. 3
4. Expected Real GDP Growth in 2010 for Key Bank Credit to the Private Sector in
Emerging Economies Emerging Economies
(% Annual Change) (6-month Annualized % Change1/)
12 60
April 09 Asia exc. China
July 09 China
50
10 Medio Oriente y África
October 09
Europa
January 10 América Latina 40
8
30
6 20
4 10
0
2
-10
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Dic-04
Dic-05
Dic-06
Dic-07
Dic-08
0
Brasil Rusia India China México
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO) April 2009 and 1/ Versus previous six months, elevated to the fourth.
October 2009, and WEO Update July 2009 and January 2010. Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics.
4
5. The ongoing expansion of the world economy, led
by EME, is expected to continue
World Real GDP Growth Projections
(%)
2009 2010 2011
World -2.1 3.2 3.3
USA -2.4 3.2 3.1
Japan -5.2 2.2 1.6
Euro Zone -4.0 1.2 1.5
France -2.2 1.4 1.7
Germany -5.0 1.6 1.7
UK -4.9 1.3 2.3
Asia 1.5 5.7 5.2
China 8.7 9.9 9.0
Latin America -1.9 4.2 3.8
Brazil -0.2 5.8 4.5
Mexico -6.5 4.2 3.5
Source: Consensus Forecasts, April 2010.
5
6. Expansionary policies in advanced countries entail
the risk of capital flow reversals from EME
Accumulated flows from funds dedicated to emerging markets
(billion US dollars)
Shares Debt
2007
9
2008 50
6
2009
3
30
2010
0
10
-3
2007 -6
-10
2008
-9
-30 2009
-12
2010
-50 -15
Apr
Ags
Nov
Feb
Jun
Jul
Dec
Jan
Mar
May
Oct
Sep
Apr
Ags
Nov
Feb
Jun
Jul
Dec
Jan
Mar
May
Oct
Sep
Source: Emerging Portfolio Fund Research. Source: Emerging Portfolio Fund Research. 6
7. …which might materialize as a result of exit strategies
from their stimulus monetary and fiscal measures
Fiscal Balance 1/ Public Debt 2/
(% of GDP) (% of GDP)
2 120
Forecast Forecast
0 100
-2 80
-4 60
G-20 -6 40
Advance economies G-20
Emerging economies -8 Advance economies 20
Emerging economies
-10 0
2011
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2011
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
1/ G-20 countries. 2/ G-20 countries.
Source: IMF. Source: IMF. 7
8. Mounting fiscal pressures are especially evident in
some European nations
Credit Default Swaps (CDS): Selected
Public Debt 1/
countries (% of GDP)
(basis points)
140
Portugal Ireland
Portugal 900 Forecast
Italy Greece
Ireland 800 120
Spain
Italy 700
Greece 100
600
Spain
500 80
400
300 60
200
40
100
0 20
Sep-09
May-09
Jul-09
Mar-10
May-10
Nov-09
Jan-10
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1/ Takes into account the latest stability programs but Portugal.
Source: Bloomberg. Source: European Commission. 8
9. Public debt and fiscal deficits as a % of GDP, Maastricht criteria,
2010 targets
Source: Fitch, UBS WMR, February 2010 9
10. In sum, the expected scenario for the global economy is not
free of risks:
Possible effects of withdrawing fiscal and monetary stimulus:
• The vulnerability of the recovery.
• Effects on interest rates of the withdrawal of monetary
stimulus.
• The need for fiscal consolidation in advanced-economy
countries.
→Capital flows to emerging economies.
Additional problems in case carry trade positions abruptly
unwind.
10
11. In sum, the evolution of the United States in general shows
hopeful signs, but is not free of risk and uncertainty:
Doubts that the recovery is sustainable and risk of a new slump.
Badly timed monetary stimulus exit strategies.
The beginning of a phase of chronic fiscal deficits.
Reluctant reactivation of bank credit, particularly mortgages and
consumer loans.
Lackluster creation of lost jobs (possible “jobless recovery”).
11
12. Contents
1. The World Economy
2. The Mexican Economy
3. Final Remarks
4. Appendix: Mexico’s Exchange Rate
13. Private sector analysts foresee a gradual recovery
of the Mexican economy
Mexico: Real GDP Projections
(percent change)
Blue Chip Consesus Forecasts
Banco de Mexico's Survey Brokerage firms*
4.7
4.2 4.2 4.1
4
3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5
3
2
1
0
2010 2011
Source: Blue Chip, Consensus Forecasts, Banxico’s survey and brokerage firms.
13
*/ Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Merril Lynch y Morgan Stanley.
14. Mexico is already benefitting from a stronger US
industrial activity
Mexico: Real GDP Growth US and Mexico: Manufacturing Production
(%) (annual growth; %; 3-month moving average)
4 Mexico
2.5 9
2.0 U.S.
2 6
0 3
0
-2 -2.3
-3
-4
Quarterly change* -6
-6 -6.1
-9
Annual change
-8 -12
-15
-10
-18
-12
Sep-08
Sep-09
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Mar-10
Nov-08
Jan-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2007 2008 2009
*/ Seasonally adjusted.
Source: INEGI and US Federal Reserve. 14
Source: INEGI.
15. The business sector is expecting that the Mexican
economy will continue to grow
Mexico: Purchasing Managers’ Index
(seasonally adjusted)
Expanding 55
50
Contracting
45
40
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Sep-04
Dec-04
Sep-05
Dec-05
Sep-06
Dec-06
Sep-07
Dec-07
Sep-08
Dec-08
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Source: INEGI. 15
16. The main driver of the Mexican rebound has been
the external sector, notably automotive sales
Non-Oil Exports Vehicle exports from Mexico and
(annual % growth; seasonally adjusted) Sales in the United States
(thousands of units per month, s.a.)
30 160
20 140
120
10
100
0
80
-10
60
Exports
-20
40
Sales of vehicles in the United States
produced exclusively in Mexico
-30 20
Mar-06
Jul-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Mar-10
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Mar-06
Jul-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Mar-10
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Source: Banco de México. Source: AMIA y Bloomberg. 16
17. There has been some geographic diversification
of exports
Non-oil Exports to Different Markets
(%)
Share Annual change, 2010
2010
2004 January February March* Jan-Mar
Jan-Mar
Total 100.0 100.0 20.7 26.8 35.2 28.1
US 88.7 79.7 18.6 25.4 32.4 26.0
Automotive 23.0 21.4 100.7 78.7 69.3 80.3
Other 65.7 58.4 3.3 12.6 22.9 13.5
Rest of the world 11.4 20.3 29.5 32.5 47.8 37.2
Automotive 2.1 4.5 88.0 48.6 95.3 77.0
Other 9.3 15.8 19.1 29.0 37.4 29.0
* Preliminary data
Source: Banco de México.
17
18. However, recent data confirm the continued
weakness of private investment,
Private and Public Investment Imports
(2007=100; seasonally adjusted) (annual growth, moving average 3-month%)
120
15
Private
Public 0
110
-15
100
-30
Total
Consumer goods
90 -45
Intermediate goods
Capital goods
-60
80 Jul-08
Jul-09
Nov-08
Nov-09
Sep-08
Ene-09
Sep-09
Ene-10
Mar-08
May-08
Mar-09
May-09
Mar-10
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: INEGI. Source: Banco de México.
18
20. … as well as the construction sector
Industrial Production,
Manufacturing Production
and Construction
(2003=100; seasonally adjusted) Construction
(constant pesos)
Share Annual var.%
124 2009 2009
Total 100.00 -6.34
120
Public Building 9.53 22.07
Private Residential Building 26.27 -16.62
116
Private Non-Residential Building 12.14 -28.63
Other Builiding 52.06 3.2
112
Private 10.46 -25.95
108 Industrial production Public 41.60 14.55
Source: INEGI.
104 Manufacturing
100 Construction
96
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Source: INEGI.
20
21. Family remittances from the US continue to fall, mainly
as a result of employment losses in that country
Family Remittances and Family Remittances
US employment in the construction sector (2006=100; seasonally adjusted)
(annual change, %)
120
US Dollars
20
Constant pesos
110
10
0 100
-10
Family remittances 90
-20
US Employment in
Construction
80
-30
-40 70
Mar-05
Jul-05
Mar-06
Jul-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Mar-10
Nov-05
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Nov-05
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Source: Banco de México. 21
22. … while international travel has not yet recovered
International Travel International Travel
(annual change, %) (million travelers)
10 Visitors to Mexico
10
Mexicans travelers abroad
0
9
-10
-20 Revenues
8
-30 Expenditures
-40 7
-50
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Mar-07
Jun-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Mar-10
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
6
2006 2007 2008 2009 *2009 *2010
Source: Banco de México. * January-March.
22
23. Despite a well-capitalized banking system,
Capital Adequacy Index: Banking System
Billion constant peso Percent
(2009)
500 Tier 2 (left)
Tier 1 (left)
17
400 Capital Adequacy Index (right)
16
300
15
200
100 14
0 13
*2010
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
* Until February.
Source: Banco de México. 23
24. … adjustment to the recent crisis has implied that
loans positive impact on activity will take time
Commercial Banks’ Credit Adjusted Delinquency Rate*/
(%, real annual change) (%)
24
Firms
30 Consumption
20
Housing
20 Total
16
10
12
0
Consumption 8
-10
Housing
Firms -20 4
Total
-30 0
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Dec-06
Sep-07
Dec-07
Sep-08
Dec-08
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Feb-10
Mar-07
Jun-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Mar-10
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
*/ The Adjusted Delinquency Rate is defined as the quotient of the sum of the direct non-performing loan portfolio plus charges or
losses taken by the banks in the previous 12 months, divided into the sum of the total loan portfolio plus those charges or losses.
24
25. Finally, public finances remain relatively solid
Public Sector Balance Duration and Yield of
(% of GDP) Government Securities
Average maturity
Economic Balance (left)
4 PSBR
2,200 45
3 Primary Balance Implicit interest
% (6-month moving average)
rate 40
2 1,950
(right)
35
1 1,700
0 30
1,450
Days
-1 25
1,200
-2 20
950
-3 15
-4 700 10
-5 450 5
-6 200 0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Until March *
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Bank of Mexico 25
26. … although, the dependence of public sector
revenues from oil calls for further reforms
Extraction of Crude Oil and, Volume of Oil
Oil Revenue
Exports: 1995-2015
(% of total Federal Government income)
(thousand barrels per day)
45
4,000
40
3,500
35
3,000
30
25 2,500
20
2,000
Forecast
15
1,500
10
Crude oil output
1,000
5 Oil-export volume
0 500
2011
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2013
2015
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Ministry of Finance. Source: PEMEX 26
27. Economic Outlook 2010
Growth in 2010: The external sector
Domestic demand:
In 2010 employment and consumption will improve but at a slow pace.
Inflexion point for employment.
Remittances in pesos have not decreased.
Imports of consumption goods are recovering.
Domestic automobile sales are increasing.
Consumer confidence recovered in January but is still weak.
Consumer credit is still falling but has stabilized.
As a result:
Retail sales growth will be slow and moderate; domestic demand will
thus show slow recovery but will eventually catch up to the external
sector.
27
28. Forecasts
Gross Domestic Product Number of Workers Insured Current Account
(Annual % Change) by the IMSS (% of GDP)
(Millions)
4.0 – 5.0 6
Between 500 &
600 thousand
15.5 0.0
3.2 – 4.2
5 jobs
4 15.0
Between 500 & 600
3 thousand jobs
2 14.5 -0.5
1
0 14.0
-1 -1.0
-2 13.5
-3
-4 13.0
-5 -1.5
-6 12.5
-7
-8 12.0
-2.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010p
2011p
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009p
2010p
2011p
2007
2008
2005
2006
2009p
2010p
p/ Estimated. p/ Estimated p/ Estimated
Source: INEGI and Banco de México. Source: IMSS and Banco de México. Source: Banco de México.
28
29. Inflation, monetary policy, exchange rate
2010 has seen a rebound in inflation due to clearly identified factors:
The impact of tax changes on consumer prices.
The realignment of energy prices with international reference
prices.
Increases to tariffs and taxes determined by local governments.
Also, inflation in the 2010 first quarter was affected by increases in the
prices of some fruits and vegetables as a result of adverse climate
effects.
To date, inflation expectations for the medium- and long-term have not
been affected.
The increase in inflation seen in the first quarter this year is consistent
with Banco de México’s expectations.
29
31. Inflation, monetary policy, exchange rate
In April 2010, the Consumer Price Index (INPC) saw a drop of 0.32%. Year-
over-year headline inflation was 4.27%, a drop of 0.70 percentage points
compared to the previous month.
The drop in the year-over-year INPC in April vs. March is explained in part by
lower core inflation. At the same time, there was a negative change in the non-
core index, influenced mainly by decreases in the prices of agricultrual
products and electiricity.
Consumer Price Index
Annual percentage change
31
31
32. Inflation, monetary policy, exchange rate
April 2010/ April 2010/ March 2010/
March2010 April 2009 March 2009
Core Inflation 0.11 4.11 4.40
Goods 0.25 4.68 5.11
Services -0.03 3.58 3.73
Non-core Inflation -1.46 4.70 6.53
Agricultural -2.29 3.71 9.11
Administered -1.01 5.24 4.66
32
33. Inflation, monetary policy, exchange rate
Headline Inflation Forecasts
(%)
6.5
IV-2009 IV-2010
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Observed Inflation
2.5
First Quarter 2010, forecast 2.0
1.5
IV 2008
IV 2009
IV 2010
IV 2011
IV 2006
IV 2007
I 2009
I 2010
I 2012
I 2006
I 2007
I 2008
I 2011
II 2008
II 2009
II 2010
II 2006
II 2007
II 2011
III 2006
III 2007
III 2008
III 2009
III 2010
III 2011
The forecast in this report coincides with that of the previous one, with the addition of the corresponding forecast for the 2012 first
quarter. In addition, the fourth-quarter forecast in the report coincides with that of the addendum of the third-quarter report.
Importantly, in each inflation report, the time line for the forecast is for eight quarters ahead. This means that with each report a
quarter is added to the forecast, while the first quarter in the previous report becomes an observed data point.
Source: Banco de México. 33
34. Inflation, monetary policy, exchange rate
Headline Inflation Expectations Yield Curve
Annual for year-end 2010, 2011, (%)
Next 4 and 5-8 Years
(%)
5.5 9
Cierre 2010 31-Dec-09
5.0 8
Cierre 2011 07-May-10
Próximos 4 años 4.5 7
Próximos 5-8 años
4.0 6
3.5 5
3.0 4
1 1 3 6 1 2 3 5 10 20 30
Dic-07
Dic-08
Dic-09
Oct-08
Oct-09
Ago-08
Ago-09
Abr-08
Abr-09
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Jun-08
Jun-09
día meses años
Source: Banco de México y Proveedor Integral de Precios.
Source: Banco de México Survey.
34
36. Inflation, monetary policy, exchange rate
International Reserves Intervention Mechanisms
(In Billions of Dollars)
100
Accumulation of International
Mechanism for
the
90 Reserves
accumulation of 80 Auction of dollar put options for 600
international
70 million dollars each month.
reserves
effective: 1996- 60 The holders of the options can sell
2001 dollars to Banco de México at the
50
Fix exchange rate from the previous
40 day, as long as the Fix is not higher
30 than the 20-day moving average
from the previous 20 days.
20
10
This does not affect the free-
floating exchange-rage regime.
0
Sales of International Reserves
Abr-99
Ago-03
Feb-97
Jun-01
Sep-04
Oct-05
Nov-06
Feb-10
Ene-96
Ene-09
Mar-98
Jul-02
May-00
Dic-07
Daily sales are maintained via
auctions at a minimum price.
Fuente: Banco de México.
36
37. The floating exchange rate regime
The floating-rate currency regime has proved to be a useful
instrument in protecting the Mexican economy against external
shocks in the last few years:
Instability in international financial markets.
Volatility in international oil prices.
Fluctuations in the terms of trade.
37
38. The floating exchange rate regime
Interbank Exchange Rate 48 hrs*
16.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
15.5
14.5
13.5
12.5
11.5
10.5
9.5
8.5
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
* Last observation: May 12, 2010 (12.3695)
38
40. The floating exchange rate regime
The variability of the exchange rate has been consistent
with what should be expected under a floating-rate
currency regime.
The currency movements have not been the result of a
deliberate policy. Mexico maintains a firm commitment to
the floating-rate regime without market intervention.
The country’s financial authorities are convinced that the
currency regime that is most suited to the circumstances
for Mexio is that of a floating rate.
40
41. Contents
1. The World Economy
2. The Mexican Economy
3. Final Remarks
4. Appendix: Mexico’s Exchange Rate
41
42. Final Remarks
The global economy is improving and its prospects
are positive
The US rebound has been supported by inventories,
consumption and recently investment. The
construction sector and real estate markets are
lagging behind the rest of the economy
Some global risk might materialize as advanced
economies withdraw their monetary and fiscal
stimulus measures. Mounting pressures are
particularly acute in some European countries
42
43. Final Remarks
Growth in 2010 will be driven by the external sector,
although it will be modest.
The domestic market will continue to lag, but as investment
recovers, inflation falls back and employment increases, the
recovery of the domestic market will pick up.
It is likely that potential GDP growth in the U.S. has
decreased. This makes it more urgent for our domestic
economy to grow at a faster pace, also rendering oft-
discussed structural reforms necessary.
43
44. Final Remarks
The inflation outlook faces several risks. The most
important is the possibility of deterioration in long-term
inflation expectations associated with the foreseen
rebound in inflation.
This could generate second-round effects on inflation if
firms translate higher costs to consumer goods and
services prices that are not directly affected, possibly
putting at risk the objective of price stability.
44
45. Final Remarks
In order to enhance potential economic growth,
major structural reforms must be implemented
Stronger public finances
Rule of law and protection of property rights
Public security
Deregulation
Competition and market flexibility
Education
45