Presentatie gegeven tijdens de Masterclass Stresstesten RWS. Wat is veerkracht? Welke verstoringen kunnen optreden? Hoe ontwikkelt dit zich in de toekomst? Wat kunnen we doen om de veerkracht te vergroten? Deze en andere vragen komen aan bod in deze presentatie...
The varying phenomena that characterize a pedestrian flow make it one of the most challenging traffic flow processes to manage and control. In the past three decades, we have started to unravel the science behind the crowd.
This has led to some important insights that are not only needed to reproduce, predict, and manage pedestrian flow, but will also provide potential avenues to managing other phenomena. In this talk, we will provide a historic perspective on pedestrian flow theory and crowd management. We show some of the key phenomena that have been observed (in controlled experiments, in the field), and how these phenomena can be explained, used or prevented.
We will also highlight some of the recent contributions in the field, including the role of AI, novel monitoring technology, and digital twins. We round up the talk showing how the finding can be generalized. We show how the game-theoretical modeling proposed for pedestrian flow models can form a basis for controlling connected autonomous vehicles. Using various examples, we show how self-organization, omnipresent in pedestrian flow, can inspire decentralized control approaches of other flow processes (e.g., autonomous vessels, drones). We show how approaches to reduce flow breakdown for pedestrian flows can be generalized for other flow processes.
In this keynote, I discuss 25 years of active mode research performed at Transport & Planning. We discuss the role of data, and the use of game-theory to model active mode traffic. We also show how complex models can be simplified, looking at multi-scale approaches.
Can we use methods from cooperative traffic and crowd modelling and management to manage drone traffic flows? I think we can! In this ppt, I explain how we can instill distributed traffic management in 3D...
Opening intelligent bicycle road - 16th of June, 2022. In this talk (in Dutch), we have introduced the investments in monitoring at the TU Delft campus.
This presentation provides an overview of our work on pedestrian flows and management. I discuss basic pedestrian flow dynamics, technology to support safe flow operations during the pandemic, and novel deployment of these technologies after the pandemic.
Short talk impact Covid-19 on supply and demand during the RA webinarSerge Hoogendoorn
We sketch a conceptual framework showing (lasting) impact on demand and supply. We illustrate complications at the supply side due to changing behaviour. We show how to include interventions and how to assess them.
This talk presents a novel microscopic modelling framework for bicycle flow operations. The model does justice to the kinematics of cyclists. Contrary to pedestrians, cyclist are more restricted in their movement. The model approximates these restrictions by considering speed and movement direction and changes therein. Secondly, the model includes different strategies (cooperative, zero-acceleration, demon opponent) in its underlying game-theoretical framework. This allows us to model different attitudes towards risk.
The (qualitative) insights gained by application of the model pertain to one-on-one interactions between cyclists and the impact of the strategy assumptions and parameter choices on those interactions as well as on the collective phenomena that occur in the cyclist flow and their sensitivity to parameters (reflecting the extent of the prediction horizon, the level of anisotropy, and the relative importance of keeping the desired path). With respect to the collective phenomena, we look at efficiency and self-organised patterns.
We conclude that the model acts in a plausible manner. While we do not aim to show absolute validity, we see that the qualitative behaviour of one-on-one interactions is plausible. We also observe plausible collective patterns, including self-organisation. The latter is not trivial given the fundamental differences in bicycle and pedestrian flow.
The varying phenomena that characterize a pedestrian flow make it one of the most challenging traffic flow processes to manage and control. In the past three decades, we have started to unravel the science behind the crowd.
This has led to some important insights that are not only needed to reproduce, predict, and manage pedestrian flow, but will also provide potential avenues to managing other phenomena. In this talk, we will provide a historic perspective on pedestrian flow theory and crowd management. We show some of the key phenomena that have been observed (in controlled experiments, in the field), and how these phenomena can be explained, used or prevented.
We will also highlight some of the recent contributions in the field, including the role of AI, novel monitoring technology, and digital twins. We round up the talk showing how the finding can be generalized. We show how the game-theoretical modeling proposed for pedestrian flow models can form a basis for controlling connected autonomous vehicles. Using various examples, we show how self-organization, omnipresent in pedestrian flow, can inspire decentralized control approaches of other flow processes (e.g., autonomous vessels, drones). We show how approaches to reduce flow breakdown for pedestrian flows can be generalized for other flow processes.
In this keynote, I discuss 25 years of active mode research performed at Transport & Planning. We discuss the role of data, and the use of game-theory to model active mode traffic. We also show how complex models can be simplified, looking at multi-scale approaches.
Can we use methods from cooperative traffic and crowd modelling and management to manage drone traffic flows? I think we can! In this ppt, I explain how we can instill distributed traffic management in 3D...
Opening intelligent bicycle road - 16th of June, 2022. In this talk (in Dutch), we have introduced the investments in monitoring at the TU Delft campus.
This presentation provides an overview of our work on pedestrian flows and management. I discuss basic pedestrian flow dynamics, technology to support safe flow operations during the pandemic, and novel deployment of these technologies after the pandemic.
Short talk impact Covid-19 on supply and demand during the RA webinarSerge Hoogendoorn
We sketch a conceptual framework showing (lasting) impact on demand and supply. We illustrate complications at the supply side due to changing behaviour. We show how to include interventions and how to assess them.
This talk presents a novel microscopic modelling framework for bicycle flow operations. The model does justice to the kinematics of cyclists. Contrary to pedestrians, cyclist are more restricted in their movement. The model approximates these restrictions by considering speed and movement direction and changes therein. Secondly, the model includes different strategies (cooperative, zero-acceleration, demon opponent) in its underlying game-theoretical framework. This allows us to model different attitudes towards risk.
The (qualitative) insights gained by application of the model pertain to one-on-one interactions between cyclists and the impact of the strategy assumptions and parameter choices on those interactions as well as on the collective phenomena that occur in the cyclist flow and their sensitivity to parameters (reflecting the extent of the prediction horizon, the level of anisotropy, and the relative importance of keeping the desired path). With respect to the collective phenomena, we look at efficiency and self-organised patterns.
We conclude that the model acts in a plausible manner. While we do not aim to show absolute validity, we see that the qualitative behaviour of one-on-one interactions is plausible. We also observe plausible collective patterns, including self-organisation. The latter is not trivial given the fundamental differences in bicycle and pedestrian flow.
Active modes and urban mobility: outcomes from the ALLEGRO projectSerge Hoogendoorn
In this presentation, we present some examples of the main outcomes of the ALLEGRO project so far. The talks starts with showing how active mode traffic can play a major role given that cities are getting denser.
Short presentation about the role of AMS in solving Amsterdam mobility issues and setting the mobility agenda. Linking science and practise using Amsterdam as a Living Lab.
Talk given at the kick-off of the ERC MAGnUM PhD week on the ALLEGRO program. The talk gives both an overview of ALLEGRO and then focusses more on active mode traffic operations.
Talk given about current PhD projects that are relevant for shaping urban mobility. In particular, focus has been on behavioural insights relating to sustainable transport modes (such as walking, cycling, and MaaS).
This document discusses transport resilience, which refers to the impact of and recovery from disruptions to transport systems. It examines challenges in understanding and improving resilience due to increasing complexity, uncertainty, and disruption probabilities in transport systems. The goal is to develop methods to resiliently design, plan and operate urban transport systems by applying principles like containment, adaptiveness and recourse. Experiments observe how behavior, coping strategies and system impacts vary greatly during disruptions. Tools are being developed for predictive modeling and real-time decision support to optimize multi-modal transport operations during disruptions. Trade-offs between efficiency and resilience must also be considered.
The presentation deals with the Importance of resilience in transportation systems: factors that influence its relevance, the trade-off between robustness and efficiency, and the relation of resilience and evacuation management.
In this short presentation, we will provide some recent developments in the field of crowd monitoring, modelling and management. We will illustrate these by showing various projects that we are involved in, including the SmartStation project, and the different events organised in and around the city of Amsterdam (including the Europride, SAIL, etc.).
In the talk, we will discuss the different components of the system and the methods and technology involved in these. We focus on advanced data collection techniques, the use of social media data, data fusion and the advanced macroscopic modelling required for this. Also, we will show examples of interventions that have been tested, showing how these systems are used in practise.
In many countries, cities are expanding in terms of size, number residents and visitors, etc. The resulting increase in concentration of people, with their mobility needs, causes major traffic and transportation problems in and around our cities. Next to the economic impacts due to delay and unreliability of travel time, concerns regarding safety and security, emissions and sustainability become more and more urgent.
ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems) hold the potential to reduce these issues. In the past decade, we have been more and more successful in making better use of the available infrastructure by using traditional ITS measures. As we will show in this talk, key to this success has been in achieving a profound understanding of what are the key phenomena that characterise network traffic flows, and designing solutions that capitalise on this.
The playing field is however rapidly changing. For one, we see a transition from road-side to in-car technology in terms of sensing and actuation. This provides great opportunities, but making best use of these is not trivial and requires a paradigm shift in the way we think about managing traffic flows where collaboration between the old stakeholders (e.g. road authorities) and the new stakeholders (e.g. companies like Google, and TomTom) becomes increasingly important. This will be illustrated in this talk by some examples showing how we can put the transition to in-car traffic management to use, both in terms of making optimal use of the new data sources and the use of the car as an actuator.
With respect to the latter, we will see that even for low penetration levels, which will occur in the transition phase towards a more highly automated traffic stream, considerable impacts can be achieved if we adequately consider the non-automated vehicles. Furthermore, it requires vehicles to be able to communicate and cooperate with each other.
These two elements are two of the five steps that was identified in the transition towards a fully automated system.
The final part of the talk will deal with the other steps that are deemed important to understand which of the scenarios in a urban self-driving future will unfold. These pertain to the interaction between man and machine, the need and willingness to invest in separate infrastructure in city, and whether automated car can co-exist with other (active) travel modes. With respect to the latter, we will also consider what ITS can mean for the other modes of travel.
Differential game theory for Traffic Flow ModellingSerge Hoogendoorn
Lecture given at the INdAM symposium in Rome, 2017. The lecture shows how you can use differential games to model traffic flows, focussing on pedestrian simulation.
Korte presentatie met de verschillende onderzoeksthema's die relevant zijn binnen het onderzoeksdomein Veilig Ontruimen. De presentatie heeft tot doel ideeën te genereren voor een onderzoeksagenda.
Keynote gegeven tijdens het NDW symposium over mogelijkheden van nieuwe databronnen. We kijken met name naar toepassingen binnen het netwerkbroed dynamisch verkeersmanagement.
In deze lezing worden recent afgeronde TRAIL proefschriften besproken, met focus op de relevantie voor de praktijk. We bespreken recente ontwikkeling in verkeersmanagement en coöperatieve systemen, crowd- en evacuatiemanagement en transport security. We bespreken ook kort de verschuiving van de focus binnen de leerstoel Traffic Operations and Management.
1) The document discusses innovations in traffic management, using suppression of wide moving jams as the main example.
2) It emphasizes the importance of integrating different traffic management measures and field trials to drive innovations.
3) Monitoring innovations like vehicle-to-vehicle technology are needed to improve integrated network management, especially as vehicles become actuators that can be controlled.
Presentation about active mode transport given at the AITPM workshop on active mode mobility. Provides overview of our pedestrian research and the first results of the ALLEGRO project.
Vision on Smart Urban Mobility given during the AITPM conference in Sydney. Talk was about key elements needed to provide the urban transportation system for the future. See http://www.aitpm.com.au/Conference/Program/conference-home for the conference details.
Presentation given during the 2016 conference Analysis and Control on Networks: trends and perspectives in Padua, Italy. Presentation provides an engineerings perspective on the various issues with see with the modelling and management of crowds, and some of the new modelling approaches.
Presentation given during the first transportation workshop at Melbourne Uni. Focus on crowd monitoring and management. With examples from various projects (SAIL, Mekka, etc.)
IPAM Hoogendoorn 2015 - workshop on Decision Support SystemsSerge Hoogendoorn
Presentation during IPAM workshop in Los Angeles where I shared the results of the Practical Pilot Amsterdam (a pilot of Integrated Network Management in Amsterdam), the lessons learnt and the plans for the next phase.
Active modes and urban mobility: outcomes from the ALLEGRO projectSerge Hoogendoorn
In this presentation, we present some examples of the main outcomes of the ALLEGRO project so far. The talks starts with showing how active mode traffic can play a major role given that cities are getting denser.
Short presentation about the role of AMS in solving Amsterdam mobility issues and setting the mobility agenda. Linking science and practise using Amsterdam as a Living Lab.
Talk given at the kick-off of the ERC MAGnUM PhD week on the ALLEGRO program. The talk gives both an overview of ALLEGRO and then focusses more on active mode traffic operations.
Talk given about current PhD projects that are relevant for shaping urban mobility. In particular, focus has been on behavioural insights relating to sustainable transport modes (such as walking, cycling, and MaaS).
This document discusses transport resilience, which refers to the impact of and recovery from disruptions to transport systems. It examines challenges in understanding and improving resilience due to increasing complexity, uncertainty, and disruption probabilities in transport systems. The goal is to develop methods to resiliently design, plan and operate urban transport systems by applying principles like containment, adaptiveness and recourse. Experiments observe how behavior, coping strategies and system impacts vary greatly during disruptions. Tools are being developed for predictive modeling and real-time decision support to optimize multi-modal transport operations during disruptions. Trade-offs between efficiency and resilience must also be considered.
The presentation deals with the Importance of resilience in transportation systems: factors that influence its relevance, the trade-off between robustness and efficiency, and the relation of resilience and evacuation management.
In this short presentation, we will provide some recent developments in the field of crowd monitoring, modelling and management. We will illustrate these by showing various projects that we are involved in, including the SmartStation project, and the different events organised in and around the city of Amsterdam (including the Europride, SAIL, etc.).
In the talk, we will discuss the different components of the system and the methods and technology involved in these. We focus on advanced data collection techniques, the use of social media data, data fusion and the advanced macroscopic modelling required for this. Also, we will show examples of interventions that have been tested, showing how these systems are used in practise.
In many countries, cities are expanding in terms of size, number residents and visitors, etc. The resulting increase in concentration of people, with their mobility needs, causes major traffic and transportation problems in and around our cities. Next to the economic impacts due to delay and unreliability of travel time, concerns regarding safety and security, emissions and sustainability become more and more urgent.
ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems) hold the potential to reduce these issues. In the past decade, we have been more and more successful in making better use of the available infrastructure by using traditional ITS measures. As we will show in this talk, key to this success has been in achieving a profound understanding of what are the key phenomena that characterise network traffic flows, and designing solutions that capitalise on this.
The playing field is however rapidly changing. For one, we see a transition from road-side to in-car technology in terms of sensing and actuation. This provides great opportunities, but making best use of these is not trivial and requires a paradigm shift in the way we think about managing traffic flows where collaboration between the old stakeholders (e.g. road authorities) and the new stakeholders (e.g. companies like Google, and TomTom) becomes increasingly important. This will be illustrated in this talk by some examples showing how we can put the transition to in-car traffic management to use, both in terms of making optimal use of the new data sources and the use of the car as an actuator.
With respect to the latter, we will see that even for low penetration levels, which will occur in the transition phase towards a more highly automated traffic stream, considerable impacts can be achieved if we adequately consider the non-automated vehicles. Furthermore, it requires vehicles to be able to communicate and cooperate with each other.
These two elements are two of the five steps that was identified in the transition towards a fully automated system.
The final part of the talk will deal with the other steps that are deemed important to understand which of the scenarios in a urban self-driving future will unfold. These pertain to the interaction between man and machine, the need and willingness to invest in separate infrastructure in city, and whether automated car can co-exist with other (active) travel modes. With respect to the latter, we will also consider what ITS can mean for the other modes of travel.
Differential game theory for Traffic Flow ModellingSerge Hoogendoorn
Lecture given at the INdAM symposium in Rome, 2017. The lecture shows how you can use differential games to model traffic flows, focussing on pedestrian simulation.
Korte presentatie met de verschillende onderzoeksthema's die relevant zijn binnen het onderzoeksdomein Veilig Ontruimen. De presentatie heeft tot doel ideeën te genereren voor een onderzoeksagenda.
Keynote gegeven tijdens het NDW symposium over mogelijkheden van nieuwe databronnen. We kijken met name naar toepassingen binnen het netwerkbroed dynamisch verkeersmanagement.
In deze lezing worden recent afgeronde TRAIL proefschriften besproken, met focus op de relevantie voor de praktijk. We bespreken recente ontwikkeling in verkeersmanagement en coöperatieve systemen, crowd- en evacuatiemanagement en transport security. We bespreken ook kort de verschuiving van de focus binnen de leerstoel Traffic Operations and Management.
1) The document discusses innovations in traffic management, using suppression of wide moving jams as the main example.
2) It emphasizes the importance of integrating different traffic management measures and field trials to drive innovations.
3) Monitoring innovations like vehicle-to-vehicle technology are needed to improve integrated network management, especially as vehicles become actuators that can be controlled.
Presentation about active mode transport given at the AITPM workshop on active mode mobility. Provides overview of our pedestrian research and the first results of the ALLEGRO project.
Vision on Smart Urban Mobility given during the AITPM conference in Sydney. Talk was about key elements needed to provide the urban transportation system for the future. See http://www.aitpm.com.au/Conference/Program/conference-home for the conference details.
Presentation given during the 2016 conference Analysis and Control on Networks: trends and perspectives in Padua, Italy. Presentation provides an engineerings perspective on the various issues with see with the modelling and management of crowds, and some of the new modelling approaches.
Presentation given during the first transportation workshop at Melbourne Uni. Focus on crowd monitoring and management. With examples from various projects (SAIL, Mekka, etc.)
IPAM Hoogendoorn 2015 - workshop on Decision Support SystemsSerge Hoogendoorn
Presentation during IPAM workshop in Los Angeles where I shared the results of the Practical Pilot Amsterdam (a pilot of Integrated Network Management in Amsterdam), the lessons learnt and the plans for the next phase.
1. Deel 1: Intro veerkracht verkeersnetwerken
Een verkeerskundige kijk op veerkracht
Technische Universiteit Delft, AMS and Monash University
Prof. dr. Serge Hoogendoorn
Distinguished Professor Smart Urban Mobility
2. Voorbeelden rol veerkracht
Brede kijk op ‘stresstesten netwerken’
Impact en herstel van aanzienlijke interne of externe verstoringen op serviceniveau
Spill-over en cascade effecten hebben grote impact
Voorbeelden: ongevallen, afname wegcapaciteit door hevige regenval, technisch falen systemen
Maar ook: in hoeverre kan systemen met rampen omgaan (evacuatie)
3. Definitie veerkracht
Robuustheid versus Veerkracht
Veerkracht
Prestatiesysteem
100%
50%
0%
t0 t1
HersteltijdRobuustheid
Kwetsbaarheid
Badkuipmodel toont verschil tussen de verschillende begrippen
Relevant aspecten stresstesten (ook voor mitigatie): verstoringskans, impact verstoring, en hersteltijd
Bij kwetsbaarheid, robuustheid en veerkracht over aanzienlijke verstoringen (vs. betrouwbaarheid)
4. Effect weer en ongevallen op files
Relevantie kwetsbaarheid en veerkracht
Incidenten en ongevallen zorgen voor 25% van de voertuigverliesuren op ASW
Weer (met name regen) fors effect op wegcapaciteit
Capaciteitsval en terugslag zorgen ervoor dat file zichzelf langer in stand houdt
Impact capaciteitsreductie neemt toe bij toenemende drukte
Weersituatie Afname capaciteit
Lichte regen 1%
Matige regen 4-6%
Zware regen 7%
Zware wind 3-4%
5. Hogere kansen optreden verstoringen
Belang neemt alleen maar toe!
Extreme weercondities (met name regen, storm) treden steeds vaker op!
Hogere zeespiegel leidt tot hogere overstromingskansen
Scaled GEV fit 1951
Scaled GEV fit 2014
Observed 2014
Frequentie van extreme dagen
(meer dan 130mm regenval)
was ongeveer 5x hoger in 2014
Bron KNMI (www.knmi.nl) Toename kans ongeval slecht weer (regen: 35-182%)
6. Fors geïnvesteerd in het zo goed mogelijk benutten capaciteit netwerk
Dynamisch Verkeersmanagement, routeinformatie, gebruik vluchtstroken
Restcapaciteit netwerk opgesoupeerd?
Indicatie relatie benutten / kwetsbaarheid, kosten / baten verhoudingen nog onduidelijk
Betere benutting, hogere kwetsbaarheid?
Keerzijde succes DVM?
7. Toenemend belang veerkracht
Trends die effect hebben op mobiliteit
Verschillende trends hebben relatie met veerkracht
Verhoogde kans op verstoring
Klimaatverandering
Afhankelijkheid technologie steeds groter
Toename interactie netwerken (OV via MaaS, energie)
Toename benutting netwerk
( )
( )
Verhoogde impact
8. Deel 2: stresstesten en oplosrichtingen
Een verkeerskundige kijk op veerkracht
Technische Universiteit Delft, AMS and Monash University
Prof. dr. Serge Hoogendoorn
Distinguished Professor Smart Urban Mobility
9. Identificatie kwetsbare links
Stresstesten netwerken
Hoe bepalend is een link voor de afname van de prestatie van het netwerk?
Bepaald door combinatie van kans op verstoring van die link, effect van die verstoring, duur
van de verstoring, verspreiding effect verstoring, restruimte in het netwerk, etc.
Data-gedreven of model-based?
Welke indicatoren voorspellen kwetsbaarheid?
Aandachtspunten: veel verstoringen zijn niet lokaal, dus concept kwetsbaarheid link
is beperkt bruikbaar voor inzicht in kwetsbaarheid / veerkracht systeem
Ook netwerkbrede impacts en uitzonderlijke situaties meenemen bij bepalen kwetsbaarheid!
Wisselwerking andere netwerken en systemen!
10. Identificatie kwetsbare links
Data-based stresstesten netwerken
Gebruik verkeersdata en afleiden indicatoren kwetsbaarheid netwerk
Beperkte correlatie tussen de indicatoren? Welke indicator is de goede?
Onderzoek nieuwe samengestelde indicator (LPIR) veelbelovend
Verkeersafwikkeling en -vraag Kenmerken verstoring Kenmerken netwerk
Snelheid Aantal betrokken voertuigen Redundancy (alternatieve routes)
Verkeersvraag Restcapaciteit Capaciteit
I/C verhouding Aantal voertuigen in congestie Centraliteit knooppunten
I/C verhouding links lage capaciteit Duur van verstoring(-seffect) Afstanden tussen op- en afritten
Arrival rate staart file Kans en effect (links lage capaciteit) Connectivity
11. Vaststellen effecten verstoringen
Model-based stresstesten netwerken
Modelstudies bieden flexibiliteit voor uitvoeren stresstesten
Bezig met modellentoolkit (e.g. hybride modellen Van der Gun): belang multi-modaal, multi-domein
Systematisch doorrekenen scenario’s en interventies: ontwikkeling sampling efficiënte methoden
12. Stresstest evacuatie en optimalisatie
Model-based optimalisatie evacuatie
Optimalisatieprobleem geformuleerd als een bi-level probleem
Enorme verbetering aantal evacuees door optimalisatie (van 42000 naar 81000 evacuees in 6 uur)
Robuuste schema’s houden rekening onzekerheid verstoring + gedrag… Reductie efficiëntie (5-20%)
14. Leiders, volgers en blokkers
Coping strategie en task execution bij stress
Taak uitvoeren puzzels en ontsnappen
Prominente rol ‘herding’
Eerste deelnemer veroorzaakt puinhoop - andere kopiëren gedrag
Resultaat is zeer onzeker (chaotisch)
Onvoorspelbaarheid systeemreactie en menselijk gedrag
15. Van oorzaken naar oplossingen?
Basisprincipes verhogen veerkracht verkeer en vervoer
Redeneren vanuit belangrijkste kenmerken kwetsbaarheid netwerk
1) 1) Beperkte (rest-) capaciteit in netwerk
2) 2) Onzekerheid in ontstaan en ontwikkeling (alle tijdschalen)
3) 3) Vervlechting stromen en afhankelijkheden processen
Ontwikkel oplosrichtingen op grond
van deze kenmerken (work in progress!)
CanWe Make
TrafficResilient?
16. Van oorzaken naar oplossingen?
Basisprincipes verhogen veerkracht verkeer en vervoer
Zorgen voor rest- of buffercapaciteit en het benutten daarvan
Compartimenteren door ontvlechten stromen en processen
Ontwerpen en beheersen met recourse (rekening houden
met onzekere toekomst)
Adaptief beslissen (d.w.z. uitgaan van
de meest recente informatie)
CanWe Make
TrafficResilient?
17. Aanzet oplosrichtingen
Compartimenteren door ontrafelen, adaptiviteit en recourse
Voorbeeld trade-off efficiëntie en veerkracht
Machinesten toegewezen aan verschillende lijnen
Effect ‘ontrafelen’ lijnen door alternatieve toewijzing
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Additional driver
scheduling cost
Operator robustness
benefits
Operator and
traveler robustness
benefits
EUROSX1000
Ontrafelen gaat ten koste van benutting (efficientie)
In dit geval grote winst voor de reiziger!
18. Recourse in ontwerp en beheersing
Compartimenteren door ontrafelen, adaptiviteit en recourse
Neem onzekerheid toekomst expliciet mee in beslisproces nu
Principes van recourse zijn van toepassing op verschillende tijdschalen, interventies, etc.
THE USE OF REAL OPTIONS IN OPTIMUM FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING (2010) by Michelle Woodward, Ben Gouldby, Zoran Kapelan, Soon-Thiam Khu, and Ian Townend
Dike needs to be
refurbished. Decision
needs to be made on
how given future
uncertainties.
What to decide?
We can rebuild the
dike “as it was”.
Options to raise the
dike at later stage
and thus protection
for possible water
level rise are limited.
Max
increase
We can rebuild the
defence wider and
higher. If water levels
remain unchanged, this
would be a wasted
investment.
3
Max
increase
Widen defence now
allowing an increase in
height in the future once the
water levels are known.
Flexible investment
incurring limited
unnecessary costs.
Plausible range of
extreme water levels
2
1
Present day extreme
water level
19. Real-time aanpassen oplossigen (DSS)
Compartimenteren door ontrafelen, adaptiviteit en recourse
Snelle response op veranderende omstandigheden
Receding horizon beslissingsondersteuning
SOS Flooding NH project als een demonstrator project
20. Beter begrijpen en verhogen veerkracht
Main take-aways en missie T&P
Relevantie van het onderwerp!
Verschil veerkracht, kwetsbaarheid en robuustheid
Belang rekening houden met hoge mate van onzekerheid in ontstaan verstoringen,
impact van verstoringen en systeemresponse
Effect beperkte voorspelbaarheid wordt versterkt door sterkere interacties binnen (benutting,
connectivity) en tussen (ICT, energie, water) systemen en cascade effecten
Niet-triviale wisselwerking tussen benutting en veerkracht
Onze missie is het waarnemen en begrijpen van de systeemresponse op verstoringen en
het ontwikkelen van methoden voor het
veerkrachtig ontwerpen, plannen en beheersen van verkeers- en vervoerssystemen
…door te kijken naar principes zoals compartimenteren en ontrafelen, adaptiviteit en recourse
21. Adam Pel Maaike Snelder
Jeroen van der Gun Louise Klingen Simeon Calvert
Niels van OortMenno Yap
Transportation
Resilience Lab
Serge Hoogendoorn
22. Ontwikkelingen
Activiteiten voor de komende jaren
NWO Cross-over proposal (transport, energy, water en ICT)
T&P Transport Resilience Cluster
Samenwerking 4TU centrum (Sandra Erkens, Bas Jonkman, etc.)
ICT
Energy
Water
Transport
Master cursus, tutorial OmniTrans, doorontwikkeling toolkit
23. That’s all folks!
Een verkeerskundige kijk op veerkracht
Technische Universiteit Delft, AMS and Monash University
Prof. dr. Serge Hoogendoorn
Distinguished Professor Smart Urban Mobility
24. Verstoringen en onzekerheid
Waar hebben we het eigenlijk over?
Korte termijn verstoringen
Lokaal: Incidenten,
ongevallen, lokale regenval
Lange termijn onzekerheden
Netwerkbrede afname
capaciteit: regen, sneeuw,
overstromingen
Vraag-gerelateerde
verstoringen, evenementen,
vakantie, evacuatie
Technologische
ontwikkelingen
Migratie, bevolkingsgroei Klimaatverandering
25. RADD / UMO Urban Mobility Lab AMS Living Lab
DiTT Lab (data analysis and simulation)
PT Lab
Traffic Flow
Theory and
Management
Automated
Transport
Active Mode
Lab
Rail Traffic
Lab
Freight and
Logistics Lab
Transportation Resilience Lab
Traffic and Transportation Safety
Smart Mobility
26. Threat Warning Impact Recoil Rescue
Post-
trauma
Resilience and Disasters
Looking at extreme disruptions
Resilience
Systemperformance 100%
50%
0%
t0 t1
Recovery timeRobustness
Projection of phases of Leach on bathtub model
Note: model used by Leach to identify victim behaviour
27. Onzekerheid en onvoorspelbaarheid
De complicerende factor
Ook bij andere rampen (bosbranden) grote rol onzekerheid
Ontstaan en dynamica verstoringen zeer onzeker!
Maar ook: bresgroei tijdens overstroming en samenhangende afwikkeling overstroming
Locatie bres ook zeer onzeker
Voorbeelden ongevallen, pechgevallen, etc.